Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 5 - thread rules updated

[Zidane98]

Any day now . Doomed. Blah blah blah

You seem offended that Nazi Russia might fail. Wonder why.

they didnt write that it would as they didnt see that coming ziobot . Youre historically illiterate

Tough words coming from a deluded internet research agency bot.

 

[StFly]

they didnt write that it would as they didnt see that coming ziobot . Youre historically illiterate

Uhhh... not quite, and not the thread for it either but...

Gorbachov was largely facing pushback internally as whilst a staunch imperialist he was also a reformer and highly moderate, so the original plans were mostly reform and loosen restrictions (ie perestroika & Glasnot). Unlike however Yetlsin and later Putin when forced with the people going "no, we want more" and to why he's more of a moderate Russian leader, he went "can we discuss this?" instead of just sending the troops in to crush it underfoot.

And it was then Gorb that signed the USSR's death, Yeltsin just bottled it into power for himself and himself alone by crashing the constitution so Putin can run with it to missile his problems away on entry.

You are what happens when you only look at some of the Russian histories that they wish to push, not the holistic versions that they also wish to hide and discredit.

So yeah, since Mikhail was Russian president, he did write the collapse of the USSR, and also as Russian Yeltsin stamped it so Putin could gaslight with it. Sniff harder.

That being said, kind of correct re their economy.

Russia can't be allowed to collapse nor will they in essence, Putin as current head honcho would rather see Russia burn than give up power, so burn it shall as they don't hold agency, they don't hold impetus, they don't hold power, he does. You then have this little thing of returning personnel to industry that is no longer viable, broken and require immediate fixes or a shadow of its previous self, so they'd be in a financial and engineering hell of their own design for that big of land mass.

For example largest continuous country on the literal globe. Period.

So rest of the world won't allow it as nuclear proliferation and micro states make nations go "I am scared now".
Russia internally would go "I only care about Moscow and St Petersberg, I suppose I also care about my western borders for expansion. Everything else can burn" so it will before that collapses. I mean he's literally pillaging his people at present, all that changes is the scope of the invasion into the citizenry assets.

 

[Zidane98]

More territorial losses for the Russians

 

[steve strange]

Uhhh... not quite, and not the thread for it either but...

Gorbachov was largely facing pushback internally as whilst a staunch imperialist he was also a reformer and highly moderate, so the original plans were mostly reform and loosen restrictions (ie perestroika & Glasnot). Unlike however Yetlsin and later Putin when forced with the people going "no, we want more" and to why he's more of a moderate Russian leader, he went "can we discuss this?" instead of just sending the troops in to crush it underfoot.

And it was then Gorb that signed the USSR's death, Yeltsin just bottled it into power for himself and himself alone by crashing the constitution so Putin can run with it to missile his problems away on entry.

You are what happens when you only look at some of the Russian histories that they wish to push, not the holistic versions that they also wish to hide and discredit.

So yeah, since Mikhail was Russian president, he did write the collapse of the USSR, and also as Russian Yeltsin stamped it so Putin could gaslight with it. Sniff harder.

That being said, kind of correct re their economy.

Russia can't be allowed to collapse nor will they in essence, Putin as current head honcho would rather see Russia burn than give up power, so burn it shall as they don't hold agency, they don't hold impetus, they don't hold power, he does. You then have this little thing of returning personnel to industry that is no longer viable, broken and require immediate fixes or a shadow of its previous self, so they'd be in a financial and engineering hell of their own design for that big of land mass.

For example largest continuous country on the literal globe. Period.

So rest of the world won't allow it as nuclear proliferation and micro states make nations go "I am scared now".
Russia internally would go "I only care about Moscow and St Petersberg, I suppose I also care about my western borders for expansion. Everything else can burn" so it will before that collapses. I mean he's literally pillaging his people at present, all that changes is the scope of the invasion into the citizenry assets.

US empire plan is to balkanise russia and china into vassal states at the expense and death of minions like Ukraine and Australia respectively

 

[Andre]

Vatniks seem to have some confusion around that collapsing and collapsed are two different things. Keeping it simple an economy can be either improving (debt cleared, taxes lowered, inflation down etc.), steady (those figures around the same year on year) or getting worse.

Given Russia's inflation is much higher than pre-war, given their gold reserves have gone down year on year, as part of their sovereign wealth fund value going down year on year, interest rates high enough, that if they were replicated in Australia Sydney Harbour would be filled with the bodies of those who'd jumped off the bridge, allows asking a simple question.

steve strange barreness for you. Of the three options - improving, steady or getting worse, from the start of the 2022 full scale invasion to now, where do each of you put the Russian economy? And as a follow-up, if the war continues on through 2026, do you think it'll be better, the same or worse than now by the end of the year?

 

[steve strange]

Vatniks seem to have some confusion around that collapsing and collapsed are two different things. Keeping it simple an economy can be either improving (debt cleared, taxes lowered, inflation down etc.), steady (those figures around the same year on year) or getting worse.

Given Russia's inflation is much higher than pre-war, given their gold reserves have gone down year on year, as part of their sovereign wealth fund value going down year on year, interest rates high enough, that if they were replicated in Australia Sydney Harbour would be filled with the bodies of those who'd jumped off the bridge, allows asking a simple question.

steve strange barreness for you. Of the three options - improving, steady or getting worse, from the start of the 2022 full scale invasion to now, where do each of you put the Russian economy? And as a follow-up, if the war continues on through 2026, do you think it'll be better, the same or worse than now by the end of the year?

When is it going to collapse Andre??

 

[Zidane98]

When is it going to collapse Andre??

Could be 1 year. Could be 5 years.

Depends on just how much pedo Putin is prepared to destroy Russia.

If he were to waste all of your gold reserves (2000 + t), all national wealth funds plus keep up his fascist racist conscription - could be up to 10 years.

It is an inevitability whenever it may happen if pedo Putin continues on the same path.

 

[steve strange]

Could be 1 year,. Could be 5 years.

Depends on just how much pedo Putin is prepared to destroy Russia.

If he were to waste all of your good reserves (2000 + t), all national wealth funds plus keep up his fascist racist conscription - could be up to 10 years.

It is an inevitability whenever it may happen if pedo Putin continues on the same path.

Could be 50

 

[TedDougChris]

Could be 1 year,. Could be 5 years.

Depends on just how much pedo Putin is prepared to destroy Russia.

If he were to waste all of your good reserves (2000 + t), all national wealth funds plus keep up his fascist racist conscription - could be up to 10 years.

It is an inevitability whenever it may happen if pedo Putin continues on the same path.

i thought I read that Russian Gold reserves were down by 71% - so at best 12 - 18 months at current rate of depletion

 

[Andre]

When is it going to collapse Andre??

If I could pick the exact date events were going to occur, I'd be funding Ukraine millions from what I make on the stock market. The lack of willpower by Europe to fully cut off oil and gas has allowed Russia's economy to survive, but selling off their wealth fund and gold reserves. Usually countries can fund a lot of debt via Bond issues, but Russia is largely excluded from doing that externally to the country and few within will touch those.

So although I can't pinpoint when it will collapse, I can't see any evidence that it won't continue to worsen. It doesn't need to collapse into hyperinflation, the reduction in revenue is already causing issues, including reducing the effectiveness of the military. As the economy continues it's steady worsening it's impacts will only increase, including on the ability to make war. When the Russian railroads are nearing or at bankruptcy, with that the main way to transport equipment, when there's no money for roads or infrastructure repair, because that's all gone to the war and what doesn't go by rail or air, must go by road, that hurts.

So still the question, do you think the Russian economy is better, the same or worse since the full scale invasion and which direction is it headed in?

 

[Zidane98]

i thought I read that Russian Gold reserves were down by 71% - so at best 12 - 18 months at current rate of depletion

71% of national wealth fund gold reserves.

Those gold reserves account for 25% of Russia's entire gold reserves.

So pedo Putin can keep going but he would be destroying Russia's future if he were to blow all gold reserves.

 

[Zidane98]

Could be 50

Nope. In the best case scenario Putin lasts 10 years. But if he were to hang on for that long Russia would be absolutely destroyed as a functioning state.

 

[TedDougChris]

So pedo Putin can keep going but he would be destroying Russia's future if he were to blow all gold reserves.

To be honest, I'm not sure he cares....

 

[Zidane98]

To be honest, I'm not sure he cares....

I doubt he could waste all gold reserves without an intervention or an assassination.

 

[TedDougChris]

I doubt he could waste all gold reserves without an intervention or an assassination.

Hopefully he tries !!!

 

[barreness]

Dude i owned you on the comment

'No one is selling oil for free'

Selling oil for free. Not something I said

Now book up them English lessons at night school if they still teach English at night school in moscow, and perhaps as well book up Mandarin classes, with china on the verge of moving into russia and helping itself to all that gas and oil for free.

You aren't doing yourself any favours here mate. I don't see how you win this argument

 

[barreness]

barreness having a shocker this week with the English language.

AI sometimes does not translate well from Cyrillic eh tovarisch.

I'm glad you've got an imaginary win, my English was fine btw

 

[barreness]

Vatniks seem to have some confusion around that collapsing and collapsed are two different things. Keeping it simple an economy can be either improving (debt cleared, taxes lowered, inflation down etc.), steady (those figures around the same year on year) or getting worse.

Given Russia's inflation is much higher than pre-war, given their gold reserves have gone down year on year, as part of their sovereign wealth fund value going down year on year, interest rates high enough, that if they were replicated in Australia Sydney Harbour would be filled with the bodies of those who'd jumped off the bridge, allows asking a simple question.

steve strange barreness for you. Of the three options - improving, steady or getting worse, from the start of the 2022 full scale invasion to now, where do each of you put the Russian economy? And as a follow-up, if the war continues on through 2026, do you think it'll be better, the same or worse than now by the end of the year?

Getting worse obviously, the most heavily sanctioned country in history.

Ukraine has been broke since 2008 though, they rely on the EU. The EU is basically broke too with all the big dogs running large debts and deficits and burning their one outlet of cheap energy

Who dies first? I'm not betting it's Russia

 

[barreness]

Crude Oil Production in Russia is down 10%, and their return per barrel is down 10%.

It's taking about half of the revenue they would otherwise be making. Govt revenue is down 12% year-on-year for January 2026

The collapse in oil revenue which is becoming more acute as the global price has come down and combined with the military spending, the Russian budget is in a death spiral.

Last year (2025) the budget deficit in Russia was $80bn USD, a higher deficit than what they ran in 1996, not long before the 1998 economic collapse. In 2024 it was a $40bn deficit.

In January 2026, it was a $22bn deficit. They're well on track for a $100bn+ deficit, or more than a quarter of their gold reserves (which will also lower the global price of gold if they sell $100bn+ this year). Everybody who could lend money to the Russian Govt (Russian Banks) are all tapped out and defaults are just around the corner. State directed preferential loans are held off the books of Russian banks.

If the Govt defaults, they're all insolvent. If I were a Russian, I'd be taking any money in any Russian bank out and putting it into Crypto or Gold hidden in the apartment somewhere.

You could be right, idk

Given that economic collapse has been the west's plan since early '22 and it hasn't happened I'm going to hold my breath

 

[CD Xbow]

Next week marks 4 years of stupid Putin's barbaric invasion, the 2 week special operation has turned into 208 weeks of blood shed. Article by the wonderful Laura Tingle, after an interview with Fiona Hill. She mentions something I had forgotten, when the Orange Moron claimed that it was Ukraine, rather than Russia, that had meddled in the 2016 US election.

Four years into the war, Putin is betting on one thing

Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting that the West and Ukraine will run out of resources first.

www.abc.net.au

Ernest Hemingway said "Bankruptcy happens gradually, then suddenly". I think this will be the nature of the Russian collapse. What ever the ultimate resolution of the conflict Russia will face some challenging demographic and social problems.

 

[Aussie in exile]

'No one is selling oil for free'

Selling oil for free. Not something I said

You aren't doing yourself any favours here mate. I don't see how you win this argument

I've already won the argument.

 

[steve strange]

You could be right, idk

Given that economic collapse has been the west's plan since early '22 and it hasn't happened I'm going to hold my breath

You know that russia is winning the war when the western corporate media focus all their efforts in screaming about russian economy or putins health. Thats all they have got.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Belarus is bordered by three EU countries. russia has military bases in Belarus and stations tactical nuclear weapons in the country.
Yet russia won’t have EU peacekeepers in Ukraine.

EU Demands Russian Troop Withdrawal From Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Transnistria in Ukraine Peace Framework

An internal EU paper circulated by Kaja Kallas calls for a ban on Russian military deployments in Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova’s Transnistria as part of any comprehensive Ukraine settlement.

www.kyivpost.com

The paper calls for a “ban of Russian military presence and deployments in Belarus, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Armenia,” as well as the removal of any nuclear weapons from Belarus.

Russian forces have long been stationed in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in Moldova’s Transnistria, at bases in Armenia, and in Belarus, which served as a launchpad for the 2022 invasion.

By tying Russian troop withdrawals from Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Transnistria to any settlement, Brussels is signaling that, in its view, a Ukraine deal must address the broader European security landscape.

The poison dwarf doesn't want foreigh troops in Ukraine so with his logic he should withdraw all russian troops from Ukraine and north korea and china should do the same with their troops.

 

[steve strange]

Next week marks 4 years of stupid Putin's barbaric invasion, the 2 week special operation has turned into 208 weeks of blood shed. Article by the wonderful Laura Tingle, after an interview with Fiona Hill. She mentions something I had forgotten, when the Orange Moron claimed that it was Ukraine, rather than Russia, that had meddled in the 2016 US election.

Four years into the war, Putin is betting on one thing

Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting that the West and Ukraine will run out of resources first.

www.abc.net.au

Ernest Hemingway said "Bankruptcy happens gradually, then suddenly". I think this will be the nature of the Russian collapse. What ever the ultimate resolution of the conflict Russia will face some challenging demographic and social problems.

There was Ukraine meddling in US 2016 election

Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump backfire

Kiev officials are scrambling to make amends with the president-elect after quietly working to boost Clinton.

www.politico.com

Opinion | Hillary Clinton and Ukraine

A letter released Monday raises questions beyond the Bidens.

www.wsj.com

Ukraine with Ukraine’s Democrat-supporting trolls leading the way. In addition to the USA-based Clinton supporters, there’s also Canadian-Ukrainian groups who support the Democrats. Here’s a brief list of Ukraine-supporting groups in America (from Wikipedia) who supported the Clinton and the Democrats in the election:

• Senate Ukraine Caucus
• Ukrainian World Congress
• Ukrainian American Coordinating Council - Wikipedia
• Ukrainian Congress Committee of America
• The Federation of Ukrainian Student Organizations of America
• Ukrainian National Women's League of America
• Ukrainian Catholic Archeparchy of Philadelphia
• Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the USA
• Ukrainian Association of Washington State
• Joint Baltic American National Committee
• Polish American Congress
• Belarusan-American Association

 

[steve strange]

The poison dwarf doesn't want foreigh troops in Ukraine so with his logic he should withdraw all russian troops from Ukraine and north korea and china should do the same with their troops

lots of dead mercenaries