Where we are at (using stats)

[Lynch takes a mark]

Structure of the team (using stats & excel)

Using the age of players in each premiership team from 2003 - 2008, using the age of the players at the time of the grand final.

Average age - 25.82 Years
Standard Deviation - 3.34 Years
N - 132



As you can see the squad approaches very close to a normal distribution.

Then using our squad from last week - sure it's not perfect but a lot of the teams will make up the core of the squad. The overlay is frequency / N x 22 and then rounded up to find a reasonably close number compared to the actual amount of players.

Average age - 23.1 Years



As you can see we are far too heavily weighted to the 18-22 age bracket and very under weighted to the 22-28 age group.

If we keep the same squad then we will approach a 'premiership distribution' within 4 years - good times ahead.

 

[purple hater]

So we are playing the kids?

Nice to see it represented so concisely, LTAM.

Week to week it can be frustrating to watch these players develop, but we are all hoping for a cup of gold at the end of 4-5 years.

Lets hope it pans out that way.

 

[larrikin]

I like the pretty graphs

 

[bodazoka]

Re: Structure of the team (using stats & excel)

As you can see we are far too heavily weighted to the 18-22 age bracket and very under weighted to the 22-28 age group.

If we keep the same squad then we will approach a 'premiership distribution' within 4 years - good times ahead.

I agree but not only are we underweighted in the 22yr old bracket we are seriously under weighed in talent at that age. Hence I believe even if we reach a premiership distribution within 4 years we will not have the required talent to get there as our current crop of talented youngsters will only just be starting to reach the age of 22-23 whilst our older talented players will be 30+.

I think it will take atleast 6 years for our current group to be talented enough to reach premiership contention. We basically have to start again with a completely new group drafted from 2005 onwards (with a few exceptions) and hope that group is good enough to get us there.

Nice graphs too

 

[tesseract]

Re: Structure of the team (using stats & excel)

I agree but not only are we underweighted in the 22yr old bracket we are seriously under weighed in talent at that age. Hence I believe even if we reach a premiership distribution within 4 years we will not have the required talent to get there as our current crop of talented youngsters will only just be starting to reach the age of 22-23 whilst our older players will be 30+.

I think it will take atleast 6 years for our current group to be talented enough to reach premiership contention. We basically have to start again with a completely new group drafted from 2005 onwards (with a few exceptions) and hope that group is good enough to get us there.

Nice graphs too

From your conclusion that because we mightn't be able to reach a flag within Cox, Glass and Kerr's playing life time; IYO, should we trade 1, 2 or all of them to get something for them to hasten our rebuild or should we stick with them for either sentimental and/or helping to develop the young guys reason?

 

[kempy]

Interesting graphs... however, the age distribution axis labels show duplication. Eg 30-32,32-34. What ages do they actually represent? And if you change the distribution range does that alter the conclusions drawn? For example, 21 and under, 22-25, 26-30, 31 and up.

 

[Lynch takes a mark]

Interesting graphs... however, the age distribution axis labels show duplication. Eg 30-32,32-34. What ages do they actually represent? And if you change the distribution range does that alter the conclusions drawn? For example, 21 and under, 22-25, 26-30, 31 and up.

Graph doesn't look as neat (less bins) but the results remain roughly the same

The vast majority of players are between 22 & 28

 

[lewigie]

Re: Structure of the team (using stats & excel)

Embley is a ****ing gun!

Hugely underrated. Would seriously cut you up.

 

[purple hater]

Re: Structure of the team (using stats & excel)

I agree but not only are we underweighted in the 22yr old bracket we are seriously under weighed in talent at that age. Hence I believe even if we reach a premiership distribution within 4 years we will not have the required talent to get there as our current crop of talented youngsters will only just be starting to reach the age of 22-23 whilst our older talented players will be 30+.

I think it will take atleast 6 years for our current group to be talented enough to reach premiership contention. We basically have to start again with a completely new group drafted from 2005 onwards (with a few exceptions) and hope that group is good enough to get us there.

Nice graphs too

In the group that is now 22-24 we have LeCras, Hurn, Priddis, Spangher, Butler, Kennedy, McKinley, Rosa, Waters and Wilkes. They will be the ones who will be in the 26-28 group in four years time.

In 2006 we had Chick, Jones, Fletcher, Stenglein and Wirra in the 26-28 group.

I dont really think you can argue that the 2006 group was stronger than those who will be the same age in 2013.

In fact you could argue that LeCras, Hurn and Kennedy will be (on potential) better than all except Wirra in the 2006 group.

Edit: Lewigie, I realised I was actually looking at the wrong group of players. (I still dont think Embley is an A Grader though!)

 

[Embers]

Lynch Takes a Mark. Can ya do me a favor

Make a graph comparing Eagles finals victories and flags with Fremantle

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Graphs aside its all good for us looking towards 2012

I believe Cox, Glass, Embley, Lynch and Kerr will still be there when we're a top four side again and playing good footy.

Nicko,BJ and Hunter might be in the mix possibly too?

You need these sorts of players to win flags IMO.

Think Dew, D.Jarman more importantly Chick.

All comes down to the last saturday in September, just ask Ablett snr or even Mooney, the hack. Poor Gary snr, such a good player but three times missed out on victory

 

[Mickgladwell]

I was checking out a posters profile last night and came across a message in which you ramble on to 'Eastern Hills' that his spelling is not up to scratch with examples for him to learn, ha ha ha I've never laughed so much in my whole life, your a real control freak man, anyway just wanted to say;

Grate worc on da grafs linch tacks a marc LMFAO

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Graphs aside its all good for us looking towards 2012

I believe Cox, Glass, Embley, Lynch and Kerr will still be there when we're a top four side again and playing good footy.

Nicko,BJ and Hunter might be in the mix possibly too?

You need these sorts of players to win flags IMO.

Think Dew, D.Jarman more importantly Chick.

All comes down to the last saturday in September, just ask Ablett snr or even Mooney, the hack. Poor Gary snr, such a good player but three times missed out on victory

Doubt Lynch will be, based on his current role.

Players who we can forget about. Hansen, Bones, Nicoski, Stenglien, Hunter.

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

I dunno, I'm really not comfortable about using stats to discuss anything on this board without a qualified professional. It's a shame we don't have any professional stats keepers on this board... a real shame.

Oh well...

 

[Quinz]

I dunno, I'm really not comfortable about using stats to discuss anything on this board without a qualified professional. It's a shame we don't have any professional stats keepers on this board... a real shame.

Oh well...

Haha, if only we had someone to guide us on these important matters.

Ah well. Nice pictures LTAM, means you don't have to think as much, I like it.

 

[sTeeL]

The best thing about it is, although we are losing most of our games, we aren't getting smashed in them (except Saints).

3rd/4th year depending on how late the bloomer is for a player to hit their straps. We all saw glimpses of Le Cras class but I don't think many of us thought he would dominate like he has. Same will happen for Masten, Notte, S Selwood and Ebert. Some of them may get better earlier but its time and experience these boys need in their bodies.

Next few years are going to be exciting and I like where the club is headed.

 

[bodazoka]

Re: Structure of the team (using stats & excel)

From your conclusion that because we mightn't be able to reach a flag within Cox, Glass and Kerr's playing life time; IYO, should we trade 1, 2 or all of them to get something for them to hasten our rebuild or should we stick with them for either sentimental and/or helping to develop the young guys reason?

I dont think trading them will hasten our rebuild as it will just replace them with kids, it will also put more pressure on Ebert, Masten and Scooter in the midfield to carry the load. What I think we should do is keep our ears to the ground for any possible movement of players in that age bracket over the next 1-2 years that we might be able to trade for. If we were to nab even 1 A grade midfielder in that bracket I think it will help our team immensly and we will be a force in 3 years time.

 

[bodazoka]

Re: Structure of the team (using stats & excel)

In the group that is now 22-24 we have LeCras, Hurn, Priddis, Spangher, Butler, Kennedy, McKinley, Rosa, Waters and Wilkes. They will be the ones who will be in the 26-28 group in four years time.

In 2006 we had Chick, Jones, Fletcher, Stenglein and Wirra in the 26-28 group.

I dont really think you can argue that the 2006 group was stronger than those who will be the same age in 2013.

In fact you could argue that LeCras, Hurn and Kennedy will be (on potential) better than all except Wirra in the 2006 group.

Edit: Lewigie, I realised I was actually looking at the wrong group of players. (I still dont think Embley is an A Grader though!)

Theres a major discrepency between the 2006 group and the current ones and that is midfield talent. Midfields are where games are won and that above list includes Priddis, Butler and Rosa our 2006 group included well.. you know who.

Generally speaking your gun players need to be around the 25 mark to challenge for a flag, since we have established that midfields win games (generally) you can say that your gun players need to be midfielders around the 25yr mark.

In 3 years Masten, Ebert, Scooter, Swift, Shuey will be between 23 (Masten only) and 21, most of them are 21/22. Lead by our 25/26yr old midfielders in Butler, Rosa, McNamara, a 30yr old Kerr and some part timers in Hurn, LeCras, Waters. The backline youd possibly rate as well as 2006 with Brown, McKenzie, an aging Glass, Waters and the forward line would be better with Kennedy, Notte and LeCras. Its just that midfield that wont be ready in 3 years time.

 

[purple hater]

I see what you are saying reguarding the midfield Boz (and agree that needs to be the focus of any good team).

However Kerr, Judd, Selwood, Butler were all a lot younger than 25 in 2006. Cousins, Stenglein, Braun and Fletcher were the players 25 or slightly older (from memory).

So all we need is the players you have listed to be as good as Judd and Kerr and we will be sweet. No worries.

 

[Crimson King]

Nice graphs, LTAM.

 

[bodazoka]

Kerr was 23, Selwood was 24, Butler was 20, Judd was 23
Cousins was 28, Braun was 28, Fletcher 27, Stinga 26

So Butler was the only really young one, but Kerr and Judd played well above there age group. I dont see Masten and Ebert doing the same thing as Judd and Kerr did.

 

[Snooperclyde]

Kerr was 23, Selwood was 24, Butler was 20, Judd was 23
Cousins was 28, Braun was 28, Fletcher 27, Stinga 26

So Butler was the only really young one, but Kerr and Judd played well above there age group. I dont see Masten and Ebert doing the same thing as Judd and Kerr did.

4 years time..............I would expect both to be very good and Shuey, Swift and S Selwood to be pushing them all the way.

 

[purple hater]

Kerr was 23, Selwood was 24, Butler was 20, Judd was 23
Cousins was 28, Braun was 28, Fletcher 27, Stinga 26

So Butler was the only really young one, but Kerr and Judd played well above there age group. I dont see Masten and Ebert doing the same thing as Judd and Kerr did.

Selwood was 22, he only turned 25 last month.

Judd turned 23 a couple of weeks before the GF.

I think most peoples hopes are actually pinned on Shuey being the stand out of the current group. Considering Masten (especially) and Eberts history with OP, I haven't given up on them being above average if they overcome their injury.( Although my hopes dont extend to them being Judd like.)

 

[bodazoka]

4 years time..............I would expect both to be very good and Shuey, Swift and S Selwood to be pushing them all the way.

In 4 years time absolutely, Im not saying they wont get good.. Im saying that our midfield wont be ready to challenge for top 4 whilst players of the calibre of Cox, Glass, Embley, Hunter and possibly Kerr are still around and still contributing.

4 Years time Masten will be 24, Ebert and Scooter will be 23 and Shuey and Swift will be 22. Im sure they will be playing some good football by then they just wont hit there peak untill 2-3 years later when Shuey and Swift hit 24-25 and Masten Ebert and Scooter are 26-25. This of course is realative to all of the above players having injury free seasons for the next 5 years...

Its possible that we will push top 4 with the young midfield if all goes well injury wise and we are able to get maximum games and pre-seasons into them. I would just like to hedge my bets and try get there a little quicker, like we did by drafting Chick and Stinga.

 

[bodazoka]

Selwood was 22, he only turned 25 last month.

Judd turned 23 a couple of weeks before the GF.

I think most peoples hopes are actually pinned on Shuey being the stand out of the current group. Considering Masten (especially) and Eberts history with OP, I haven't given up on them being above average if they overcome their injury.( Although my hopes dont extend to them being Judd like.)

I think Judd and Kerr both hastened our ability to challenge for a flag as they both came out of the blocks quickly and Judd especially played like a 50+ games player straight away. I know Ebert, Scooter and Masten will be good midfielders, as will Swift and Shuey unfortunatelly I dont think there development will come along quick enough. Im also not sold on the hype around Shuey, the club rated Masten a chance to burst out this season and become that other A grade midfielder we need but it never happened. Shuey is getting the same sort of wraps from the club as Masten was last year..