Which side fails to play in September?

[PowerfulPies2023]

Neale quiet second half after 4 in the first. He's had a good season. Cameron goalless wtf.

 

[Defabs]

Pies missed with 52

View attachment 2398073

That’s technically not true

13 wins equals 52 points. Collingwood missed with 52 points last year

Collingwood also the only team in the top 8 era to have missed with 9 or less losses if you reword it differently

 

[Rod Stroker]

Loser of Dogs and Freo is out. Even if GC lose next week to Port, they just have to win the week after Dons and they're in.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Loser of Dogs and Freo is out. Even if GC lose next week to Port, they just have to win the week after Dons and they're in.

No way

 

[Rod Stroker]

No way

true story

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I remember hawks 2013 draw. Yeah they got all other 7 of the 2012 finalists in the 1st 7 games.

Meanwhile the team they lost the 2012 flag to(Swans) were gifted the two start up clubs(Suns, Giants) in Rounds 1 & 2.

The AFL pets.

 

[Freomaniac]

Meanwhile the team they lost the 2012 flag to(Swans) were gifted the two start up clubs(Suns, Giants) in Rounds 1 & 2.

The AFL pets.

Yet Port Adelaide had 5 wins and a draw in 2012 and remarkably didn't finish bottom 4 . LoL

 

[beez]

Pies missed with 52

That’s technically not true

13 wins equals 52 points. Collingwood missed with 52 points last year

Collingwood also the only team in the top 8 era to have missed with 9 or less losses if you reword it differently

I wonder what's changed over the last three seasons that could have enabled teams to acquire more points before September?

 

[demondavey]

Port Adelaide will beat GC next week. Ken’s last game. You just know it. They should beat Essendon so they’ll scrape into 8th.

 

[demondavey]

Loser of Dogs and Freo is out. Even if GC lose next week to Port, they just have to win the week after Dons and they're in.

Imagine Essendon rolls them…. That would be brutal

 

[Rod Stroker]

Imagine Essendon rolls them…. That would be brutal

They would have to be the longest price team in the history of betting

 

[WillHayward]

Pies missed with 52

That’s technically not true

13 wins equals 52 points. Collingwood missed with 52 points last year

Collingwood also the only team in the top 8 era to have missed with 9 or less losses if you reword it differently

Not sure anyone gives a shit about this stat.

 

[TheThunderboltKid]

Has a team ever missed finals with a % of 140?

 

[HeHateMe]

Battle for top 4 is red hot as well.
Hawks vs Brisbane, if the Lions win they will make top 4, if hawks do they keep the chance alive but it will depend on other results falling their way.

 

[Astro_]

It’ll be us, weak mindset, vanilla coach. Already feel like it’s inevitable the dogs whack us and we end in 9th.

As Ange said “it’s who we are mate”.

Are you not entertained though?

Probably not

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Loser of Dogs and Freo is out. Even if GC lose next week to Port, they just have to win the week after Dons and they're in.

Realistically not going to happen, but they’d probably is a multiverse somewhere that sees us lose to St Kilda by more than 100+ points, and Freo lose to the Dogs but by less than a couple of points. That will see both the Bulldogs and Freo make the finals, and the Giants just missing out on %.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Yes it is. I’m just fascinated to understand why this is the most difficult draw in history? Is it harder than Hawthorn’s 2013 which as I said featured back to back games against all seven finalists from 2012 in the first seven rounds including away games to Perth and Adelaide in the first five? That season also featured back up games against all sides that made the finals that year (and was a 19-3, 136% year).

These are the percentages after the home and away seasons in each of the last 25 premiers

Brisbane 121%
Collingwood 129%
Geelong 144%
Melbourne 130%
Richmond 129%
Richmond 113%
West Coast 121%
Richmond 118%
W Bulldogs 119%
Hawthorn 158%
Hawthorn 141%
Hawthorn 136%
Sydney 140%
Geelong 157%
Collingwood 141%
Geelong 127%
Hawthorn 131%
Geelong 152%
West Coast 120%
Sydney 116%
Port Adelaide 132%
Brisbane 121%
Brisbane 136%
Brisbane 127%
Essendon 159%

So percentage is usually a pretty good indicator. In the years where a sub 120% team won the flag, there was not a team with a 140% percentage - so they were disproportionately even or weak years. This year, potentially three finalists could have 140% percentages (Adelaide, Geelong, W Bulldogs with Collingwood, Hawthorn and the Gold Coast around 125%)

Shows how good we actually were in 2008 considering we were rank underdogs. Percentage of 130 gets lost because of what Geelong did that year but if you looked at the actual season as a whole any other year we finish top.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Nonsense.
In order to have an easier portion of the draw we had to have had another section that was hard.

Before bye.

Beat Pies, Hawks, Crows, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Dogs.
First 3 away from home. Lost to both Lions and Giants by single digits. That's every club competing for finals before the bye and the 4 hardest were away from home for a 3-1 return.

Weddle has played 15 games, that's roughly 70% of games.
And isn't fit to shine the boots of Smith or Holmes.

You may as well say I don't really watch much of Hawthorn based on your nonsense posting. Isn't fit to shine their bootlaces? . We haven't even seen even half of what Weddle is capable of yet your already claiming this is it?. If both Smith and Holmes played 15 games this year ( That's 7 games out) how would your mob honestly go, serious question. Would you call up George Stevens to fill the gap? Looked great against a rabble how did he go the week after? Those 2 set the tone for everything else that goes on. Your a different team without them just like we are without Weddle and Day.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Statistically how much do Milestone games actually change the expected result? And sides get up for it? Like it feels more often than not when people think a team will get up because this player has played 300 games or so and so is retiring they don't.

This isn't just a milestone game it's a farewell game to 2 stalwarts of the Port footy club. 1 will walk into their HOF and potentially an AFL HOF down the track. Your being Naive if you don't think there won't be an emotional performance that suits the occasion. Port have a tendency to play on emotion more than others.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Battle for top 4 is red hot as well.
Hawks vs Brisbane, if the Lions win they will make top 4, if hawks do they keep the chance alive but it will depend on other results falling their way.

Odds on Cats V Lions QF unless we play the best we have all year.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

How ****ing easy has the Bulldog draw been? Absolute bullshit the amount of shit teams they’ve played

They are flat track bullies

Don’t deserve to be playing finals at all.

 

[Hobbes]

How ****ing easy has the Bulldog draw been? Absolute bullshit the amount of shit teams they’ve played

They are flat track bullies

Don’t deserve to be playing finals at all.

Average difficulty, just like your team.

 

[The Nostradamus]

I think and want freo to miss

As I reckon dogs can cause more trouble in finals despite their record vs those teams
They are about to get back Treloar also
Who just picked up 40 touches in the vfl

 

[My Tilly]

Hawks aren't on our level. They're an easy kill for the top 4 come finals.

I am worried about facing Hawthorn in a final.

They're 3-2 against Geelong since the start of the 00's and the last finals encounter was 2016. Cats needed Isaac Smith to miss a set shot after the siren to secure a preliminary final berth.

I want to avoid that mob at all costs. Be preferable to face Gold Coast in Melbourne first up.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I am worried about facing Hawthorn in a final.

They're 3-2 against Geelong since the start of the 00's and the last finals encounter was 2016. Cats needed Isaac Smith to miss a set shot after the siren to secure a preliminary final berth.

I want to avoid that mob at all costs. Be preferable to face Gold Coast in Melbourne first up.

Their ability to be a fly in the ointment is irritating. Granted.
But what is looking like the alternative atm is Brisbane (MCG) week one and if we lose then GWS or WB/Fre week 2.

So I'd happily take Hawthorn over the two clubs we're a combined 0-4.