Analysis Win / Loss Forecast

[TheEnsign]

I've been following the main board ladder prediction thread with interest - there's a fairly wide range of opinion on how the Saints will place on the ladder.

Although we have some tough away games and double ups (Melbourne, Sydney, WC, plus I don't think Richmond will be pushovers), we do have the benefit of 14 games at Etihad where we enjoy an advantage.

We were 9 - 5 at Etihad last year and I would think that (without analysing the teams played there) we'd be aiming for a 10 - 4 or 11 - 3 record there this year as our 'home ground'.

Of the away fixtures, I see Adelaide, WC and Sydney as losses. All of Hawthorn, Port, Richmond, Melbourne, and Freo are eminently winnable imo - although Melbourne will be aching for a win at the G after we beat them in R1

Assuming we go either 10-4 or 11-3 at home, and win 3 - 4 of the above 'winnable' away games, I have us at 13 - 15 wins (14 being most likely). Generally speaking (last year being different), 14 wins should put us 6th or thereabouts.

Thoughts?

 

[Glen Buterol]

17 wins

 

[George]

15+ wins and a prelim final berth.

 

[PoppedCorn]

Malthouse has us finishing 4th!!

I know he played a couple for us but im a little surprised by that.

14 wins

 

[Rors]

15 wins
6 losses
1 draw

 

[sverik25]

I posted this is in the ladder prediction thread on the main board:

I went through the fixture and assigned what I thought was the probability of each team winning each match, in a squiggle-like method, from 0.05 to 0.95. This was the ladder I came out with, after rounding to whole wins.

1. GWS 17-5
2. Sydney 16-6
3. Western Bulldogs 15-7
4. Adelaide 14-8
5. West Coast 13-9
6. Geelong 13-9
7. Melbourne 12-10
8. Hawthorn 12-10

9. St Kilda 12-10
10. Port Adelaide 11-11
11. Gold Coast 10-12
12. Collingwood 9-13
13. Richmond 9-13
14. Fremantle 9-13
15. Essendon 8-14
16. North Melbourne 8-14
17. Brisbane 5-17
18. Carlton 5-17

It probably slightly underestimates the number of wins the top teams will receive and overestimates the number of wins the bottom teams will receive, but I'm pretty happy with the ranking. Hawthorn pipped St Kilda for 8th spot by 0.15 wins.

The main reason we finished in 9th according to my predictions was due to our tougher draw than our immediate rivals for the last few places in the eight. Obviously it'd be a bit disappointing if this was the outcome.

The matches we play against Melbourne (x2), Geelong, Hawthorn, Port (Adelaide) and West Coast (Melbourne) will be absolutely crucial.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

15 wins
6 losses
1 draw

Yeah I'm jumping on that bandwagon!!

 

[plugger66]

11 to 13 wins so 7th to 9th

 

[Barrels]

25 wins.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

Malthouse has us finishing 4th!!

25 wins.

Yep, 25 wins.

Then off to the Malthouse for a month or two

 

[soups1982]

14 wins

 

[soups1982]

Crownbet has St Kilda (Over 10.5 Wins) at $1.95

I reckon that represents some value for those interested

 

[Rors]

Crownbet has St Kilda (Over 10.5 Wins) at $1.95

I reckon that represents some value for those interested

What odds are they offering for some cretin seated near you complaining about your barracking this year?

 

[Chuckie357]

Predictions mean nothing. We have never won at Adelaide oval and haven't played well in Adelaide for a while. I picked us to get thumped round 1 last year against the history maker upperers, we only just lost and were the better team all day, just not having an extra trial game cost us in the end

 

[Persevering Saint]

Gee, if only this entire board had spent a month of the pre-season figuring this out...

 

[okeydoke7]

13-9

 

[Brains Trust66]

Gee, if only this entire board had spent a month of the pre-season figuring this out...

Hahahahahaha


Sent via HAL

 

[Brains Trust66]

Undefeated for entire season


Sent via HAL

 

[chris_h_11]

12-10, split the double ups 1 each with Melbourne & Richmond. Allows for a couple of upset wins, and a couple of upset losses.