Your Ladder Predictor

[Kong]

Had a crack at this for the first time today.

I had our games as:

Freo: W
Bulldogs: W
St Kilda: W
Port: W
Geelong: W
Hawthorn: L
Adelaide: L
North: W
Carlton: W
Richmond: W
Collingwood: L

And came up with this:

I surprised myself a little, particularly with Hawthorn in the four, and West Coast not on top. If things work out as I've predicted (which they won't), a lot would come down to Essendon v Collingwood, and Hawthorn v West Coast to determine those top 5 spots. Win and we're 3rd.

With a finals series looking like this:

Of course it'll probably all change by the end of next week, but oh well.

How've you got it working out?

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I reckon we'll beat Hawthorn. Their backline is far too tall and slow to deal with us.

 

[loopy_cam]

I had it pretty much the same. Round 18 v Hawthorn could decide top four.

 

[BomberTime]

The Hawthorn game being at Etihad will help as well.

 

[The Prosecutor]

At the MCG, I'd back Hawthorn.

At Etihad however, 50/50.

We should at least have one home final this year, if we don't this season has been a failure (unless we win a final).

 

[Doss]

An interesting stat- we have not lost more than six matches in a row against any opponent since losing nine on the trot to Richmond between 1972-76.

We are currently sitting on six losses in a row against Collingwood.

Since that Richmond streak, we have managed to break six game losing streaks against sides on quite a few occasions:

Hawthorn (broke 6L streaks in 1990 and 2009)
Footscray (broke a 6L streak in 2010)
Collingwood (broke a 6L streak in 1993)
Geelong (broke a 6L streak in 2011)
Port Adelaide (broke 6L streaks in 2004 and 2011)
North Melbourne (broke a 6L streak in 2008)

Therefore, we are dead certainties to beat Collingwood in Round 23

Seriously though, there are quite a few games where it's really difficult to know what to expect. Freo next week is a good example. St Kilda is another example- yes we've had the wood on them recently but that was under Lyon, under Watters they seem much more unpredictable so you just don't know. I'm fairly confident the Bulldogs and North Melbourne games can be marked down as wins. Probably add Port Adelaide and (on current form) Carlton to that as well. The rest are either 50/50 (i.e. Geelong, Hawthorn) or more than likely losses (i.e. Adelaide, Collingwood)

Kong's scenario would have us playing Geelong in an elimination final, probably on a Sunday at the 'G. Hmmm...would be tough.

 

[The Prosecutor]

I personally think Collingwood will finish top with Adelaide and West Coast 2/3 in either order.

Hawthorn I think will take out 4th.

I think it's crucial we finish 5th. I t would mean we obviously play the weakest finalist (potentially Fremantle at the G) while also ensuring a Melbourne semi final.

To make the GF, we will have to beat one of WC/Adel at their home ground, unless that is we finish fourth and beat Collingwood.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

1. Adelaide
2. Collingwood
3. Hawthorn
4. West Coast
5. Sydney
6. Essendon
7. St Kilda
8. Richmond
9. Freo
10. Carlton
11. Geelong
12. North
13. Lions
14. Port
15. Bulldogs
16. Melbourne
17. GC
18. GWS


Adelaide Def WC

Syd def Rich, WC def Syd, Adel def Ess

Ess def St Kilda, Ess def Hawks, Coll def WC Coll def Adel.

Coll def Hawks

 

[Lord Nicholson]

At the MCG, I'd back Hawthorn.

At Etihad however, 50/50.

We should at least have one home final this year, if we don't this season has been a failure (unless we win a final).

Every season you don't win the flag is a failure.

Gotta win a final, be it home or away, for quantifiable improvement of course, but if we can maintain the relatively low average points against for the rest of the year (for instance) then we're making definite headway.

 

[daffo]

The losses to Melbourne and Sydney will cost us dearly by the end of the year.

 

[Jesse Custer]

The losses to Melbourne and Sydney will cost us dearly by the end of the year.

This. Especially Melbourne. When will the boys learn?

 

[Essendonia]

Whatever happens, it is going to be a tight and frantic finish to the season in Rd 23. I basically do a Baileys after each round, having seen a little more from all of the teams.

Could have Essendon and Collingwood playing for 4th in the last match...

There are a few massive contests in the final round that will shape the 8. A lot of teams will be sweating on other results too. A great result for footy

 

[Mercurial89]

personally i thought pies were a lock for top spot, but after doing a ladder predictor myself came up with very similar ladder to Kong. Was surprised how highly i rated Adelaide by the end of it. but i do like the way they play its entertaining. I had us in 7th but i tried to be as "worst case" as possible to try and keep it as realistic as possible. Given enough time to think about a match up i get too optimistic. Hell after this bye i have us destroying freo at home by 80 points with gumby back and kicking 10. really hated this week...especially since there was no footy on the weekend (no foxtel)

 

[Kong]

Hell after this bye i have us destroying freo at home by 80 points with gumby back and kicking 10. really hated this week...especially since there was no footy on the weekend (no foxtel)

Haha

 

[Essendonia]

personally i thought pies were a lock for top spot, but after doing a ladder predictor myself came up with very similar ladder to Kong. Was surprised how highly i rated Adelaide by the end of it. but i do like the way they play its entertaining. I had us in 7th but i tried to be as "worst case" as possible to try and keep it as realistic as possible. Given enough time to think about a match up i get too optimistic. Hell after this bye i have us destroying freo at home by 80 points with gumby back and kicking 10. really hated this week...especially since there was no footy on the weekend (no foxtel)

 

[Childish Gambino]

I just did the ladder predictor.

I also think the Hawthorn game decides whether we finish top 4 or not. I think Adelaide/Collingwood will finish top.

My ladder looks like this:

Adelaide 72
Collingwood 72
Hawthorn 64
West Coast 64
Essendon 60
Sydney 60
Geelong 56
Carlton 52 (Too much quality not to make the finals this year)

I think the winner out of Saints/Carlton in round 23 will finish 8th.

If we can manage to beat Hawthorn the ladder changes to:

Adelaide 72
Collingwood 72
Essendon 64
West Coast 64
Hawthorn 60
Sydney 60
Geelong 56
Carlton 52

 

[pazza]

Mine has:

Adelaide 76
Sydney 68
Essendon 68
Hawthorn 64
West Coast 64
Collingwood 60
Geelong 60
RICHMOND 52

 

[Essendonia]

Mine has:

Adelaide 76
Sydney 68
Essendon 68
Hawthorn 64
West Coast 64
Collingwood 60
Geelong 60
RICHMOND 52

How did you get the Pies so low and Adelaide so high?

 

[pazza]

How did you get the Pies so low and Adelaide so high?

Adelaide's home record is excellent. Same with West Coast's and Sydney's. In fact Adelaide's run home is so good that it's hard to see them losing any games at all except maybe down at Geelong.

Pies get a couple of soft wins after the Eagles home game, but, their run home sees them play Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney (away), West Coast (away) and us. You could not possibly call that easy.

 

[Mr Mojo Risin]

I was quite conservative about Essendon in hopes to counter natural bias. I was surprised to see Adelaide top however they have a decent fixture and I assumed they would not drop off as they have plenty of fit, hardened players.

Was most unsure about Hawthorn V Sydney and West Coast V Adelaide. I figure lack of decent finals experience will get West Coast over the line in the Prelim however WCE are not that much more experienced in finals.

EDIT - Oh just realised I had Richmond finishing 9th. That was not deliberate.

 

[Essendonia]

Adelaide's home record is excellent. Same with West Coast's and Sydney's. In fact Adelaide's run home is so good that it's hard to see them losing any games at all except maybe down at Geelong.

Pies get a couple of soft wins after the Eagles home game, but, their run home sees them play Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney (away), West Coast (away) and us. You could not possibly call that easy.

I can understand the Adelaide rationale.

Even though Collingwood have a tight run at the end, I expect them to win most of them. I'm impressed with their current run of form (8 straight with some key ins and outs, and Cloke badly out of form). They have broken their Geelong mini-hoodoo earlier this year, and will only get stronger as their injuries lessen. A bit of anti-bias, or hatred, perhaps? I didn't have them on top, but certainly with more than 15 wins. It comes down to individual perception and rating of each team in each fixture, I suppose...

I hope we finish top 4, as we could 'fast-track' finals experience by at least playing two matches, if not winning at least one.

 

[BrewSmackerVeiny]

Oh just realised I had Richmond finishing 9th. That was not deliberate.

It wasn't Deliberate, it was DESTINY.

I also agree with a few others that the Hawks game could be a real decider on who gets top 4.

 

[Slattery_20]

An interesting stat- we have not lost more than six matches in a row against any opponent since losing nine on the trot to Richmond between 1972-76.

We are currently sitting on six losses in a row against Collingwood.

That stat absolutely BLEW MY MIND on the w/e.

 

[Doss]

That stat absolutely BLEW MY MIND on the w/e.

Aye, when the last decade has been as mediocre as Essendon's has, you have to hang your hat on something.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

What did you do to screenshot those photos?