We are still talking betting aren't we?
Preview AFL Round 8 - Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 7:40PM Saturday 18 May
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Off topic but I saw the hawthorn football team on my way back from school in launceston , Tasmania ( I was on the bus, I was heading north while they were walking south) My friend and I had a little giggle when one of their players walked past a strip club 
I then saw Luke hodge and I had a sudden urge to throw something at him for stealing my premiership but I then saw their coach and remembered the 09 comeback match and then the gf so it was all good
Go Geelong
I then saw Luke hodge and I had a sudden urge to throw something at him for stealing my premiership but I then saw their coach and remembered the 09 comeback match and then the gf so it was all good Go Geelong
catempire
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Which is good. Because I still get to dine out on $3.50!
Which is good. Because I still get to dine out on $3.50!
Still head-to-head $3.50. $3.60 in some spots. All the money is for the Cats.
As for the rumours. Never a good idea to bet based on rumours.
catempire
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it's not the money line you should watch but the line (spread) and from what I have seen the last 24 hours, it's gone from -19.5/-20 and rising to -21.5 as we speak.
Bookies are begging for Collingwood action and at $3.50, they are getting it as you already see from a few fellow Cat fans in here
Cats in a blowout I reckon even if one of Stokes or Johnson or Hawkins miss.
Bookies are begging for Collingwood action and at $3.50, they are getting it as you already see from a few fellow Cat fans in here
Cats in a blowout I reckon even if one of Stokes or Johnson or Hawkins miss.
Off topic there is anti Geelong thread ...
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/we-are-the-anti-geelong-the-almost-team-of-all.1006478/
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/we-are-the-anti-geelong-the-almost-team-of-all.1006478/
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Here's my match preview, sorry it's a bit late everyone, been sick most of the week, but better late than never hopefully.
THE FORM LINE
Geelong has surprised most in the football world by being 7-0 and on top of the ladder, having just defeated the only other previously undefeated team in Essendon. The Cats have done this despite not excelling at the contested ball and having a weakened ruck division. Interestingly in most of the games we have been behind in the first half and then come home very strong in the second half. Collingwood's form has been more up and down, with wins over North Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond and St Kilda, while being belted by Hawthorn and Essendon, and losing to Freo in the West last week. That game described Collingwood's season well, a very slow start before storming back with six goals in the third quarter, but then after hitting the lead in the last being overrun and beaten.
MEDICAL ROOM
Both sides are quite depleted and are doing well to still notch up wins with what they have available. Collingwood's best side is currently missing Beams with a quad injury, Keefe with an ACL who is expected back mid season. Toovey recently injured his ACL and will miss the season, while Fasolo will do likewise with the dreaded navicular foot fracture. Dale Thomas, after starting the season late from ankle surgery, is troubled by it again and will miss this clash. Off season recruit Clinton Young from Hawthorn is yet to play because of hamstring and foot troubles, while Heath Shaw is suspended after earning a cheer from all in the world for hitting the little hobbit last week.
Geelong meanwhile is missing a similar number of players from it's best 22. Off season ruck recruit Hamish McIntosh has yet to play because of achilles and knee troubles, but is clearly in our best 22 when he can get fit. Fellow rucks Dawson Simpson and Nathan Vardy have been injured until the last couple of weeks, leaving Trent West and Mark Blicavs to carry the ruck load. Exciting forward Daniel Menzel will miss all of this season and probably next year as well after undergoing a fourth knee reconstruction, and will be missed. After a great first couple of games, Travis Varcoe injured his shoulder and will be unavailable until at least round 15 after surgery, robbing the best 22 of a lot of run and precision footskills. Important tagger Taylor Hunt will be sidelined until after the mid season bye after fracturing his clavicle last week. Defensive recruit from Melbourne Jared Rivers will miss a similar amount of time after having knee surgery following the Dogs game, leaving us thin for key defenders. Gun small forward Paul Chapman will miss this clash with a hamstring injury, while key midfielder James Kelly is suspended after his hit on Brendon Goddard last week.
STEVEN MOTLOP
Motlop has had a wonderful 18 months, really establishing himself in the 22. Like Johnno, he can frustrate with the sublime one minute, and then mucking up the next (see his goalkicking last week), but the improvement is clear, and his ability to run and carry and hit the scoreboard is crucial to us. Averaging 19 possessions a year, and having kicked 11 goals in 7 games, his influence on the game is much greater than it was last year, and he offers us a great deal of run and creativity between the arcs. Much as I have commented on Collingwood's midfield and it's strength, to me their obvious weakness is their ability to defend small forwards, amplified with Toovey gone for the year. Obrien, good as he is up the field, can easily be turned around in circles and exploited when dragged deep into defence, Shaw is suspended, Russell has done little since switching clubs and Clarke doesn't look great as an accountable small defender. So Motlop (and Stokes and Bundy when he rests forward) could really break the game open for us, providing his goalkicking is more accurate this week.
TRENT WEST
As he did last year, West has carried the ruck load amidst an injury crisis, and we should be thankful for his durability. I feel in recent weeks he has started to improve after a slow-ish start to the year. I have named him as a key player this week because as mentioned, this game will be won and lost in the midfield, so against a strong midfield like the Pies, we cannot afford to get slaughtered in the rucks. Fortunately Jolly is not in great form and is playing like a bloke in his final year, but it is crucial for us that Westy and Blicavs at the very least break even and allow our mids to halve the contest. I would also be instructing him to run forward at every opportunity and test the fact that Jolly struggles to cover the ground thesedays, since Westy is a good mark and kick for goal.
TOM LONERGAN
For all Collingwood's problems and issues this year, they can be thankful that one part of their forward line, Cloke, is still functioning quite well. Averaging 8.9 marks a game and already having kicked bags of 4 (twice), 5 and 7 goals this season, Cloke is performing extremely well given the at times haphasard delivery-they often bomb it on his head rather than to his advantage, when he has multiple defenders on him. So with better delivery, and a boot that can kick goals from 60, he could damage sides even more. Lonners has traditionally marked him in recent years and I expect this matchup again. The key for Lonners is to take front position and deny it it to Cloke, for once he has it he is very hard to shift. As always, it's a team job and our mids need to work hard to push back and block Cloke's space, but the job Lonners does will go a long way to winning us the game.
Is most definitely the Rolls Royce of the Collingwood midfield, and will be most happy to see Taylor Hunt, who would probably have tagged him, is not playing. Pendlebury will need close attention because apart from his ability to win the ball at stoppages, what sets him apart from many of his teammates is his ability to deliver it by foot with precision. When by contrast, I've seen a lot of Collingwood players simply bomb in hope to Cloke this year, Pendlebury has the ability to hit him on the lead with passes that defenders can't stop. It's always hard to stop him getting a lot of the ball, but we need to limit the time and space he has when he has it.
TRAVIS CLOKE
Has been in super form this year, which is a very meritorious effort given Collingwood are not going as well as last year and the supply to him is not as good. Having kicked 22 goals already this season, he has the capacity on any day to kick a bag and really rip a side open. The key with Cloke is his engine and workrate, and the ability to take contested marks, as he is very hard to shift once he has front position. We need Lonergan to play him from in front and play him well, but in particular we need to ensure our midfielders push back hard to clog the space and force him to have multiple opponents to deal with.
HARRY OBRIEN
Has been playing on the wing more this year, from what I have seen, but with no Toovey or Shaw, I would expect he, along with Russell, will be Collingwood's defacto small defenders. Has reasonable strength in the contest, and will need all of it against our battery of small forwards. I think the key with him is to run him in circles, he can have quite a large turning circle at times and if you keep repeat leading and then turn him around, you can do damge, and hopefully Motlop and Stokes can do just that.
HOW IT WILL BE PLAYED
Collingwood's inclusion of two rucks indicates they feel our ruck division is a weakness and they want to try and dominate us around the stoppages. The flip side of that coin is that it could expose them for run, especially since neither Jolly nor Witts is particularly mobile. Collingwood's strength is their midfield and I expect them to play to that, they will try to get a lot of numbers around the stoppages and win them. I would expect they will push their forwards up into the midfield to try and create a reasonably open forward line for Cloke and try and isolate him and whoever is defending him. Given our success in playing slingshot footy and their weakness against small forwards, they will probably also try and push back hard into defence when we have the ball to clog space. Geelong will focus on the same things that has worked for us so far; no doubt Scotty would like to see us get better at clearances and contested ball, but we will focus on turning the ball over when the opposition has the ball, and then scoring from that. We will place a lot of pressure on the ball carrier to limit their time to spot up a lead and thus force them to kick it long, which guys like Taylor and Enright eat up. I would expect us to try and isolate our small forwards given Collingwood's weakness in this area, and someone like Motlop will be used as an outlet wherever possible.
THE VERDICT
I know the Cats are raging favourites due to our unbeaten start and mainly Collingwood's inconsistent form, but I do not share the view that this win is a lay down misere. We still have weaknesses, mainly in our midfield and winning contested ball, and Kelly's absence will maginfy this. Collingwood have a very strong midfield, and the recent times they have beaten us, it has started there, so it will be a big job for a midfield minus Kelly and Hunt and Chapman to win the contest there, especially with an inexperienced ruck combination. I do feel we have the potency in the front half to score heavily, and providing Lonergan can limit Cloke's output, I am very confident in our defence vs their forwards. I expect Collingwood to be really fired up and given their good recent record against us, they cannot be discounted. I think Geelong will win, but only due to our strong second halves, and the game will be in the balance until the last 10 minutes.
Geelong by 17 points.
GEELONG VS COLLINGWOOD
Round 8, Saturday May 18th, MCG
THE FORM LINE
Geelong has surprised most in the football world by being 7-0 and on top of the ladder, having just defeated the only other previously undefeated team in Essendon. The Cats have done this despite not excelling at the contested ball and having a weakened ruck division. Interestingly in most of the games we have been behind in the first half and then come home very strong in the second half. Collingwood's form has been more up and down, with wins over North Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond and St Kilda, while being belted by Hawthorn and Essendon, and losing to Freo in the West last week. That game described Collingwood's season well, a very slow start before storming back with six goals in the third quarter, but then after hitting the lead in the last being overrun and beaten.
MEDICAL ROOM
Both sides are quite depleted and are doing well to still notch up wins with what they have available. Collingwood's best side is currently missing Beams with a quad injury, Keefe with an ACL who is expected back mid season. Toovey recently injured his ACL and will miss the season, while Fasolo will do likewise with the dreaded navicular foot fracture. Dale Thomas, after starting the season late from ankle surgery, is troubled by it again and will miss this clash. Off season recruit Clinton Young from Hawthorn is yet to play because of hamstring and foot troubles, while Heath Shaw is suspended after earning a cheer from all in the world for hitting the little hobbit last week.
Geelong meanwhile is missing a similar number of players from it's best 22. Off season ruck recruit Hamish McIntosh has yet to play because of achilles and knee troubles, but is clearly in our best 22 when he can get fit. Fellow rucks Dawson Simpson and Nathan Vardy have been injured until the last couple of weeks, leaving Trent West and Mark Blicavs to carry the ruck load. Exciting forward Daniel Menzel will miss all of this season and probably next year as well after undergoing a fourth knee reconstruction, and will be missed. After a great first couple of games, Travis Varcoe injured his shoulder and will be unavailable until at least round 15 after surgery, robbing the best 22 of a lot of run and precision footskills. Important tagger Taylor Hunt will be sidelined until after the mid season bye after fracturing his clavicle last week. Defensive recruit from Melbourne Jared Rivers will miss a similar amount of time after having knee surgery following the Dogs game, leaving us thin for key defenders. Gun small forward Paul Chapman will miss this clash with a hamstring injury, while key midfielder James Kelly is suspended after his hit on Brendon Goddard last week.
KEY PLAYERS-GEELONG
STEVEN MOTLOP
Motlop has had a wonderful 18 months, really establishing himself in the 22. Like Johnno, he can frustrate with the sublime one minute, and then mucking up the next (see his goalkicking last week), but the improvement is clear, and his ability to run and carry and hit the scoreboard is crucial to us. Averaging 19 possessions a year, and having kicked 11 goals in 7 games, his influence on the game is much greater than it was last year, and he offers us a great deal of run and creativity between the arcs. Much as I have commented on Collingwood's midfield and it's strength, to me their obvious weakness is their ability to defend small forwards, amplified with Toovey gone for the year. Obrien, good as he is up the field, can easily be turned around in circles and exploited when dragged deep into defence, Shaw is suspended, Russell has done little since switching clubs and Clarke doesn't look great as an accountable small defender. So Motlop (and Stokes and Bundy when he rests forward) could really break the game open for us, providing his goalkicking is more accurate this week.
TRENT WEST
As he did last year, West has carried the ruck load amidst an injury crisis, and we should be thankful for his durability. I feel in recent weeks he has started to improve after a slow-ish start to the year. I have named him as a key player this week because as mentioned, this game will be won and lost in the midfield, so against a strong midfield like the Pies, we cannot afford to get slaughtered in the rucks. Fortunately Jolly is not in great form and is playing like a bloke in his final year, but it is crucial for us that Westy and Blicavs at the very least break even and allow our mids to halve the contest. I would also be instructing him to run forward at every opportunity and test the fact that Jolly struggles to cover the ground thesedays, since Westy is a good mark and kick for goal.
TOM LONERGAN
For all Collingwood's problems and issues this year, they can be thankful that one part of their forward line, Cloke, is still functioning quite well. Averaging 8.9 marks a game and already having kicked bags of 4 (twice), 5 and 7 goals this season, Cloke is performing extremely well given the at times haphasard delivery-they often bomb it on his head rather than to his advantage, when he has multiple defenders on him. So with better delivery, and a boot that can kick goals from 60, he could damage sides even more. Lonners has traditionally marked him in recent years and I expect this matchup again. The key for Lonners is to take front position and deny it it to Cloke, for once he has it he is very hard to shift. As always, it's a team job and our mids need to work hard to push back and block Cloke's space, but the job Lonners does will go a long way to winning us the game.
KEY PLAYERS-COLLINGWOOD
SCOTT PENDLEBURYIs most definitely the Rolls Royce of the Collingwood midfield, and will be most happy to see Taylor Hunt, who would probably have tagged him, is not playing. Pendlebury will need close attention because apart from his ability to win the ball at stoppages, what sets him apart from many of his teammates is his ability to deliver it by foot with precision. When by contrast, I've seen a lot of Collingwood players simply bomb in hope to Cloke this year, Pendlebury has the ability to hit him on the lead with passes that defenders can't stop. It's always hard to stop him getting a lot of the ball, but we need to limit the time and space he has when he has it.
TRAVIS CLOKE
Has been in super form this year, which is a very meritorious effort given Collingwood are not going as well as last year and the supply to him is not as good. Having kicked 22 goals already this season, he has the capacity on any day to kick a bag and really rip a side open. The key with Cloke is his engine and workrate, and the ability to take contested marks, as he is very hard to shift once he has front position. We need Lonergan to play him from in front and play him well, but in particular we need to ensure our midfielders push back hard to clog the space and force him to have multiple opponents to deal with.
HARRY OBRIEN
Has been playing on the wing more this year, from what I have seen, but with no Toovey or Shaw, I would expect he, along with Russell, will be Collingwood's defacto small defenders. Has reasonable strength in the contest, and will need all of it against our battery of small forwards. I think the key with him is to run him in circles, he can have quite a large turning circle at times and if you keep repeat leading and then turn him around, you can do damge, and hopefully Motlop and Stokes can do just that.
HOW IT WILL BE PLAYED
Collingwood's inclusion of two rucks indicates they feel our ruck division is a weakness and they want to try and dominate us around the stoppages. The flip side of that coin is that it could expose them for run, especially since neither Jolly nor Witts is particularly mobile. Collingwood's strength is their midfield and I expect them to play to that, they will try to get a lot of numbers around the stoppages and win them. I would expect they will push their forwards up into the midfield to try and create a reasonably open forward line for Cloke and try and isolate him and whoever is defending him. Given our success in playing slingshot footy and their weakness against small forwards, they will probably also try and push back hard into defence when we have the ball to clog space. Geelong will focus on the same things that has worked for us so far; no doubt Scotty would like to see us get better at clearances and contested ball, but we will focus on turning the ball over when the opposition has the ball, and then scoring from that. We will place a lot of pressure on the ball carrier to limit their time to spot up a lead and thus force them to kick it long, which guys like Taylor and Enright eat up. I would expect us to try and isolate our small forwards given Collingwood's weakness in this area, and someone like Motlop will be used as an outlet wherever possible.
THE VERDICT
I know the Cats are raging favourites due to our unbeaten start and mainly Collingwood's inconsistent form, but I do not share the view that this win is a lay down misere. We still have weaknesses, mainly in our midfield and winning contested ball, and Kelly's absence will maginfy this. Collingwood have a very strong midfield, and the recent times they have beaten us, it has started there, so it will be a big job for a midfield minus Kelly and Hunt and Chapman to win the contest there, especially with an inexperienced ruck combination. I do feel we have the potency in the front half to score heavily, and providing Lonergan can limit Cloke's output, I am very confident in our defence vs their forwards. I expect Collingwood to be really fired up and given their good recent record against us, they cannot be discounted. I think Geelong will win, but only due to our strong second halves, and the game will be in the balance until the last 10 minutes.
Geelong by 17 points.
Put the house on the bulldogs to beat Gold Coast.. No idea how/why GC are favourites.... Beating Melbourne isn't exactly something to write home about.
Sometime soon this team is going to string 4 quarters together. It will be a shot across the bow to other teams. It wouldn't have the same effect if we did it against Gold Coast or GWS. I've got a feeling it may be this week.
Jon Douglas
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Can't see a 4 quarter game by the Cats just yet, unfortunately. Just too many missing from the side and it has too many youngsters.
Add Rivers, Kelly, Chapman and Varcoe - four really experienced guys and add Thunt - and then you could see us play 4 quarters and signal what we could do in the finals.
Hmac would be a handy inclusion as well I suspect.
As six players is over a quarter of the team - it is a significant amount of players. These players not only add experience but would help in the midfield (Kelly, HMac and THunt - our greatest need), in leg speed (THunt), in the backline (Rivers)and in the forward line (Chappy).
With these inclusions Top 4 a certainty and a GF appearance very likely.
Consistency in games is very important and all of the above players, except Hmac who is a bit unkown presently, would add that consistency.
Add Rivers, Kelly, Chapman and Varcoe - four really experienced guys and add Thunt - and then you could see us play 4 quarters and signal what we could do in the finals.
Hmac would be a handy inclusion as well I suspect.
As six players is over a quarter of the team - it is a significant amount of players. These players not only add experience but would help in the midfield (Kelly, HMac and THunt - our greatest need), in leg speed (THunt), in the backline (Rivers)and in the forward line (Chappy).
With these inclusions Top 4 a certainty and a GF appearance very likely.
Consistency in games is very important and all of the above players, except Hmac who is a bit unkown presently, would add that consistency.
winty
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I can think of three reasons:
1. They're playing at home. They ran us close there last year, as well as Essendon early in the year when the Bombers were up and about, and have beaten Carlton and St.Kilda up there recently, and both those teams are better than the Bulldogs are.
2. Their tall forwards. Cox, Darling, Kennedy, and even Majak Daw have got a hold of their undersized defenders. What are the likes of Dixon and Smith going to do to them?
3. Gary Ablett plays for them.
I think the experience factor will outweigh all those points. The GC are still very young. Time will tell !! The bulldogs will be more hungry after a loss and the win by the GC last week might make them slightly overconfident.
HoopsAhoy
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For someone in our 22 surely you meant "19 possessions a game"?
If it was really 19 per year I think there'd be a few people concerned! Heck most of us would qualify in the Cat's 22 on that stat!
PO thanks for your comprehensive summary.
I read somewhere that an interesting perspective is to look at the respective levels and performance of the bottom 6 of each team. I must say that heartened my outlook for Geelong in this game - especially given the respective outs of bigger name players for each side. I am even more inclined to think this could be a tipping point blow out game for Geelong.
Jon Douglas
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Since the 1989 GF I have always thought (until 2007) that it was out bottom 6 players that in the ned were simply not good enough for us to win a flag. True of course for all clubs.
That is why we have so much improvement to come if we get back players. I really like our young players but they are not yet really good footballers - but they look like they will be.
Take Smedts as an example. Could be a real star - but he is on the fringe of our best 22 simply because he has not had the preseasons and the senior games yet to tear a game apart - or consistently get 20 possies, get 5-6 tackles and kick multiple goals every game. It will come but it takes time for most junior players to get to that level.
So we expose our youngsters to get them experience - but they are still our weakest link IMO.
Come finals if a youngster like Smedts is to be in the side he will need to have improved his game and consistency a fair bit. This of course could happen - but right now Chappy, if fit, would probably get a game ahead of him.
That is why we have so much improvement to come if we get back players. I really like our young players but they are not yet really good footballers - but they look like they will be.
Take Smedts as an example. Could be a real star - but he is on the fringe of our best 22 simply because he has not had the preseasons and the senior games yet to tear a game apart - or consistently get 20 possies, get 5-6 tackles and kick multiple goals every game. It will come but it takes time for most junior players to get to that level.
So we expose our youngsters to get them experience - but they are still our weakest link IMO.
Come finals if a youngster like Smedts is to be in the side he will need to have improved his game and consistency a fair bit. This of course could happen - but right now Chappy, if fit, would probably get a game ahead of him.
Yeah that has been a rumour for the past two weeks...so just maybe it will be right this time.
Jon Douglas
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Hope Hawk plays and gets his rest starting next week. Huge loss IMO as he draws normally at least two players and opens up the game for other forwards.
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And gets his handpasses off, our 3rd-best for goal assists this year.
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come on over to the punters thread
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/money-to-be-made-this-season.994028/page-5
CatTricks
Norm Smith Medallist
Which forum?
I hope he played and isn't rested. We're a better side - a much better side - with him playing. I can understand for older guys the occasional rest but not a 24 year old.
The urge to rest players now is ridiculous. We still have to win games.
Well the report from the VFL game is that Kersten and Burbury are playing, but Caddy not, so this suggests Hawkins will play tonight.
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