New Senate Poll Ordered For WA

[Ripper]

That last seat is paper thin close. We're talking a few hundred votes.

Won't know for weeks probably.

 

[Maggie5]

Bishop's jibe about a protest vote would have been the agreed upon spin, to take the sting out of such a result.

The Libs have refused to be conciliatory re Palmer, which could be mean either of two things, first they think he will be an obstructionist force, or they think he will be easily bought later.

I wonder, if they can't find a senate majority from dealing with Palmer/the independents, then the media msg and media battles pre and post budget are going to be heated. This Hockey crapola about a budget emergency is getting tedious and aggressive saturation with the hordes staying on msg will become even more so. Voters are experiencing election mode fatigue, which doesn't help the Libs as it seems to be their media management/pr strategy.

Whatever the case, despite a pointed media offensive, they may not have the backing to push through a few key ticket items, let alone more contraversial legislation. If they push too hard, the public will respond poorly, however they could never carry through with the threat of a double dissolution because it would be electoral suicide.

I would vote for them before PUP. Pirate Party very successful overseas.
"Their biggest success came in 2009 when the party won two seats at the European Parliament. During the last year this was followed by dozens more seats in German state parliaments.
Today a new milestone can be added after Iceland’s Pirate Party scored an important victory in the national parliamentary elections. With 5.1% of the total vote (95% counted) the Pirates (just) exceed the required 5% threshold, making it the first Pirate party to enter a national parliament, with 3 MPs".
http://torrentfreak.com/pirate-part...arliament-after-historic-election-win-130428/

 

[Ripper]

So Western Australians clearly voted for the mining and carbon tax to be abolished. So says the prime minister.

The PM is right. Lib + Nat + PUP + LDP add up to 51.06% of 1st preferences alone.

 

[yibbida]

The PM is right. Lib + Nat + PUP + LDP add up to 51.06% of 1st preferences alone.

And compared to September?

 

[The_Reaper]

Massive swing to greens who are the loudest proponents for the carbon and mining tax. Massive swing to Palmer who campaigned heavily against the government.

Matched by a drop in Labor.

 

[Ripper]

And compared to September?

51.06% is a majority obtained by parties that went with a clear policy to repeal.

Goes up to 52.05 if you add the shooters and fishers.

The Shooters and Fishers Party believes the Carbon Tax is a political construct built on the false premise that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is a real

 

[yibbida]

51.06% is a majority obtained by parties that went with a clear policy to repeal.

Goes up to 52.05 if you add the shooters and fishers.

So the "conservative" vote is exactly the same (to 2 decimal points) as September? I would love to know the probability of that happening!

 

[Ripper]

So the "conservative" vote is exactly the same (to 2 decimal points) as September?

I don't know what you are trying to say.

 

[yibbida]

I don't know what you are trying to say.

I'm asking if the "conservative" vote in this election is the same as the September election.

If it is higher you could conclude that WA voted in favor of the government, if it went down WA voted against the government.

 

[Ripper]

51.06% is a majority obtained by parties that went with a clear policy to repeal.

Goes up to 52.05 if you add the shooters and fishers.

You can add yet another 1.13% for Family first and the DLP and Stop the greens

So far we are up to 53.18% of first preferences for parties opposed to Carbon taxing.

 

[yibbida]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/wa/

Lib + Nat + PUP + LDP add up to 52.77% of 1st preferences.

 

[telsor]

Not sure I'd count PUP as 'conservative' any more than I would the shooters and fishers...

PUP is a single issue party...that issue being whatever crawled into Palmer's cranium most recently.

 

[Ripper]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/wa/

Lib + Nat + PUP + LDP add up to 52.77% of 1st preferences.

They don't on the AEC site.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm

 

[yibbida]

They don't on the AEC site.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm

That's for 2014 election, I'm trying to compare to 2013.

 

[Maggie5]

Whatever the result, for me two big things stand out.

1. Very surprised at the vote for Greens especially in WA, given the poor result in Tasmania recently. Possibly due to profile of Ludlam? (Not unhappy though)
2. The sooner that Labor start selecting candidates on merit and move away from union selection, the sooner they will get back into power.

 

[Ripper]

That's for 2014 election, I'm trying to compare to 2013.

2013 is so , like ,last year

 

[yibbida]

Whatever the result, for me two big things stand out.

1. Very surprised at the vote for Greens especially in WA, given the poor result in Tasmania recently. Possibly due to profile of Ludlam? (Not unhappy though)

Ludlum is a good operator and the Greens can trace their roots back to WA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josephine_Vallentine)

 

[The Speaker]

Ludlum is a good operator and the Greens can trace their roots back to WA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josephine_Vallentine)

Not so much they can trace their roots back to WA, as it is the WA Greens have been a distinct force for years, and only in 2004 did the WA Greens and The Greens merge in the Senate voting.

The Australian Greens today are a merger of seperate forces that are broadly connected.

 

[samFFC]

So Western Australians clearly voted for the mining and carbon tax to be abolished. So says the prime minister.

Lol.

 

[samFFC]

Matched by a drop in Labor.

Labor drop was <5%. Green swing was well over 6%. So not quite

 

[The Speaker]

If they don't win the final seat it would be a poor result for Labor, although i don't believe the $$ spent by Labor would come anyway near to what the Tories & PUP had spent.

We do not have Tories in Australia.

The ALP and the Liberals did not spend a great deal in this campaign - the Libs certainly spent more than the ALP, but the two collectively would be the ones not coming anywhere near the PUP (and the Greens spent a fair bit as well).

Massive swing to greens who are the loudest proponents for the carbon and mining tax. Massive swing to Palmer who campaigned heavily against the government.

The PUP campaigned heavily against the carbon and mining tax and got the largest swing.

So Western Australians clearly voted for the mining and carbon tax to be abolished. So says the prime minister.

Of the four biggest parties, the two parties that campaigned against the taxes current have 46.2% of the vote, the two parties that did not have 37.7%.

He's within his right to claim such a thing.

Very poor result for Labor.

Terrible. Having one in five voters vote for what is meant to be the biggest party in the country is a shocking result.

Labor drop was <5%. Green swing was well over 6%. So not quite

I'd say there been a bit of internal movement that we can't see thanks to the 2% LDP drop.

I'm asking if the "conservative" vote in this election is the same as the September election.

If it is higher you could conclude that WA voted in favor of the government, if it went down WA voted against the government.

This result says a lot more about the major parties than it says about ideology.

 

[CakeEater]

Having worked at the election some of the highlights for BF followers

1. No PUP people handing out how to vote cards (given the seat I worked has a Liberal bias, it would have made sense to have a presence)
2. Some person wrote "F*** the Liberals" on the paper, then proceeded to vote Liberal above the line

 

[DivideandMultiply]

I disagree - the Libs would win a 2015/2015 Double Dissolution election IMO.
Abbott won't do it though.

I never said they wouldn't, though I doubt it.

I said electoral suicide.

The Australian voting public would take a long time to forgive them returning to government with a hung parliament which would be the likely result if re-elected. They would most assuredly lose their clear majority in the house at the least.

The backlash in WA to a double dissolution, would also be significant. I don't think even a conservative leaning public could forgive having to vote in yet another election.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

You can add yet another 1.13% for Family first and the DLP and Stop the greens

So far we are up to 53.18% of first preferences for parties opposed to Carbon taxing.

Why are you including PUP?

 

[Borry]

Having worked at the election some of the highlights for BF followers

1. No PUP people handing out how to vote cards (given the seat I worked has a Liberal bias, it would have made sense to have a presence)
2. Some person wrote "F*** the Liberals" on the paper, then proceeded to vote Liberal above the line

Some other observations from my booth.

1. Someone voted Green and drew a penis over the Australian Christians option.
2. Someone wrote Buzz Lightyear and ticked next to it.
3. Someone voted below the line but marked the boxes in exact order up to down left to right 1 to 77. Clearly didn't show that they were mucking around, but it still counts as a valid vote.
4. Someone walked into the place with a beer in hand in the vision of a cop who was there to vote. Cop didn't notice though.
5. Someone walked in shirtless. Reminded me of Redfern Centrelink.

There are quite a few voters that get the LDP and Liberals mixed up, which explains why the LDP vote is a bit higher than expected.