2014 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

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The Pivotonian said:
An interesting name to keep an eye out for is Central Districts Josh Glenn.

Last year he decided not to nominate for the draft despite being a very promising type (he is a midfielder). Central were, by all accounts, keen for him to go to the draft combine but didn't push the kid.

Today against the Adelaide Crows reserves side (that is playing in the SANFL this year) Glenn was Central's highest possie winner with 29 touches & 12 marks.
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That's serious numbers for a youngster in senior company......Just read Matt Crouch Crow draftee, had 28 touches before being subbed at 3/4 time, they're unbelievable numbers.
 
Turbocat said:
Sounds like someone that will end up at the Crows Piv
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If he doesn't want to leave SA (and has made it reasonably well known) then I suppose Adelaide and Port might be best placed to offer something.

But once you nominate, that is taken out of your hands so, if it is an issue, he'll need to think long and hard.

meto said:
That's serious numbers for a youngster in senior company......Just read Matt Crouch Crow draftee, had 28 touches before being subbed at 3/4 time, they're unbelievable numbers.
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Against that side it is an excellent performance. Seems like he was the only one who stood up.

One to keep an eye on.

I think he is too old for the U/18 Championships so he'll need to be tracked through his SANFL appearances. Strangled Cat is probably best placed to give an opinion on how Glenn plays if he manages to take in some SANFL matches through the year.
 
The Pivotonian said:
If he doesn't want to leave SA (and has made it reasonably well known) then I suppose Adelaide and Port might be best placed to offer something.

But once you nominate, that is taken out of your hands so, if it is an issue, he'll need to think long and hard.

Against that side it is an excellent performance. Seems like he was the only one who stood up.

One to keep an eye on.

I think he is too old for the U/18 Championships so he'll need to be tracked through his SANFL appearances. Strangled Cat is probably best placed to give an opinion on how Glenn plays if he manages to take in some SANFL matches through the year.
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I'll keep an eye out for him if Central District is on the box. I'll be watching South take on Centrals when they're playing at Elizabeth next. I live on the wrong end of town to catch the Panthers but the right end of town to watch the doggies. Hopefully he's playing when I watch my team take them on.
 

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Turbocat said:
Good point. The logic of trading for a kid in system up at GWS for eg make sense *** as long as its the right kid. Not sure Id be giving them more R1 picks for a kid that cant force their way into their best 22
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Give recruiters credit, they are smart and will judge players on a case by case basis and it will be largely in part according to where they ranked them initially, they won't be swayed a lot by two years in between.

E.g. someone like Orourke was always considered a reach at 2 and was picked largely because they had so many good inside mids they needed a player of outside type, so they passed on better players like Wines for him. Admittedly he has been injured a lot, but struggling to make the team as an outside mid in a team that needs one, he may well be devalued in a trade.

Whereas someone like Jaksch was pretty much considered to be by all recruiters ranked 6-14, was picked there, has been good at neafl level and is stuck behind Cameron Patton and Boyd. I would be thus pretty confident that if he comes back (I think it's highly likely he will) that he will hold his value in a trade.

I really rate this draft, particularly for talls, but I am ok with us trading our pick if it is a teens pick again and we are getting a player that fills an obvious need (that would be either a KPD/KPF, i would argue KPD much more of a need, or a developing ruck)
 
The Pivotonian said:
If he doesn't want to leave SA (and has made it reasonably well known) then I suppose Adelaide and Port might be best placed to offer something.

But once you nominate, that is taken out of your hands so, if it is an issue, he'll need to think long and hard.

Against that side it is an excellent performance. Seems like he was the only one who stood up.

One to keep an eye on.

I think he is too old for the U/18 Championships so he'll need to be tracked through his SANFL appearances. Strangled Cat is probably best placed to give an opinion on how Glenn plays if he manages to take in some SANFL matches through the year.
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I never understood why Glenn didn't nominate last year, because he would have been drafted if he had.

Maybe he doesn't want to play afl?
 
Pure_Ownage said:
I never understood why Glenn didn't nominate last year, because he would have been drafted if he had.

Maybe he doesn't want to play afl?
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Reported that he wasn't keen to leave SA. If that's it, bit disappointing to throw away a career.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Agreed.
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At least try it for a year and see how you feel at the end.

He might be able to organise a trade back to SA if he is drafted elsewhere.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Give recruiters credit, they are smart and will judge players on a case by case basis and it will be largely in part according to where they ranked them initially, they won't be swayed a lot by two years in between.

E.g. someone like Orourke was always considered a reach at 2 and was picked largely because they had so many good inside mids they needed a player of outside type, so they passed on better players like Wines for him. Admittedly he has been injured a lot, but struggling to make the team as an outside mid in a team that needs one, he may well be devalued in a trade.

Whereas someone like Jaksch was pretty much considered to be by all recruiters ranked 6-14, was picked there, has been good at neafl level and is stuck behind Cameron Patton and Boyd. I would be thus pretty confident that if he comes back (I think it's highly likely he will) that he will hold his value in a trade.

I really rate this draft, particularly for talls, but I am ok with us trading our pick if it is a teens pick again and we are getting a player that fills an obvious need (that would be either a KPD/KPF, i would argue KPD much more of a need, or a developing ruck)
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See I think this is flawed. "largely". There is no way Jacsch would gather 6 now. What he was and what he is are different. Its not quite like purchasing a car. Once you purchase the car and drive it out of the show room it loses value.With the draft pick used on a kid thee is absolutely no "truth" about the kids actual player value and what he was picked at , its all just prestige for early picks and irrelevant for later picks. The "Truth" is the longer they are in the system , the longer what they do and how they show their skillset plays out against an AFL framework. Who says that they were really worth the pick used, or if it was a strong or weak draft or they failed to show progress at the expected rate. Most of all if the kids do not play , they devalue. For what ever reason , whether they are injured, or can get passed whoever is in front of them

I suppose we at Geelong would be a classic in this, we put the slow build into kids and because of that I feel we would be very lucky to get what we paid for them.

But as usual Pure you have a point. With high picks of a certain calibre , and the unusual situation of having so many quality kids squashed into GWS and GC list. Rucks and talls are given more leeway for a slow start , maybe just a glimpse or an act is enough to show all they are on the right path and keep their value. The again sometime actually playing at the level shows just how far they are off the the pace.

And of course value is in the eye the beholder.

You must have a better feel than Jacsch and ORooke than me , but I suspect if Melb offered P3 for both they would be very tempted to take it an move on.
 
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Adam Tomlinson from GWS has been one I have always liked. Ay 193cm and 93kg he is a good size. I reckon he has potential to play back or forward. He is the sort of guy we could go after dare I say in front of an untried Jacksh. But I guess it still depends on what each player will cost. I just cant see Tomlinson getting a game in front of Boyd, Patton and Cameron. Nor would he really get a look in down back. Imagine a club like Geelong coming to him and saying we rate you and you will get game time you would jump at the chance.
 
muttonchops , thejester ... how good is he? Where would he fit into the Geelong side/list, what role? Id have to say what I have seen of a few of their players like Tomlinson , has left question if they are really as good as their pre draft rep. When I watched Piers Flanagan play , I wondered if that reflected the standard of the guys on the fringes, then maybe they are not worth getting too over the top worried about them. Of course some are good , but the best kids are the ones who are playing. Just like Caddy and Adams were.

On Tomilinson , at 193 , he has almost the modern size to play a variety of roles IF he has the talent to go with it. Can he run like Jansen , can he kick and mark like Harry , in fact is he a strong contested mark like Pods ..he is that height.

Is the cost worth it? Im unsure. GC and GWS seem to think that all should pay lamb prices for two tooth.
 
I'd be lying if I said I had a strong recollection of his play, but he is on the fringes this year because of the presence of Boyd and Patton rather than deficiencies on his part. Averaged nearly 16 disposals and 7.5 marks (less than one goal though) a game last year playing as a high CHF in front of Cameron. Definitely worth watching his situation.

EDIT: On price...you're right about them wanting a premium in all cases, I think in part to show they won't be bullied by older clubs. The danger is that a club like Carlton or the Dogs would be able to trump us with draft picks, and I don't think he's worth a quality player.

EDIT II: Just for context, 7.5 marks a game puts him at 7th on the table for marks last season across the league. Think the kid can play.
 
thejester said:
I'd be lying if I said I had a strong recollection of his play, but he is on the fringes this year because of the presence of Boyd and Patton rather than deficiencies on his part. Averaged nearly 16 disposals and 7.5 marks (less than one goal though) a game last year playing as a high CHF in front of Cameron. Definitely worth watching his situation.

EDIT: On price...you're right about them wanting a premium in all cases, I think in part to show they won't be bullied by older clubs. The danger is that a club like Carlton or the Dogs would be able to trump us with draft picks, and I don't think he's worth a quality player.

EDIT II: Just for context, 7.5 marks a game puts him at 7th on the table for marks last season across the league. Think the kid can play.
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There'd be a couple on the fringes at GWS I'd have thought.

With all those first rounders playing there must be a few others worth investigating (Jaksch I'd definately add to Tomlinson). Also, if Corr hasn't extended/renewed his contract he might be worth enquiring about (after only 2 years it might be cheeky but we are seeing some of these young guys serving their 2 years and then leaving).
 

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The Pivotonian said:
There'd be a couple on the fringes at GWS I'd have thought.

With all those first rounders playing there must be a few others worth investigating (Jaksch I'd definately add to Tomlinson). Also, if Corr hasn't extended/renewed his contract he might be worth enquiring about (after only 2 years it might be cheeky but we are seeing some of these young guys serving their 2 years and then leaving).
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Sort of remember Corr a bit , liked him as a player. Again. Is what they want worth it. If I was Melb if certainly offer a R1 pick for ORoorke and Jacksch for eg. A 2 for 1 , seems a discount but to my mind , there team is starting to set , what they need now is less player but a top up with a younger group.
For us , will we get ORourke with a P16 ish , I doubt it so then it falls to the the type you have discussed. I have no doubt Wells would have a much better idea than I on who is worth what and compare that to what the draft looks like, Im very glad to have him with his finger on the pulse
 
Just to take a different approach , do we look at someone like Rosa.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-04-23/rosas-free-agency-lure
Its all cost V output and although he would hurt the SC a bit more , he would not hurt in Draft picks. He would be a player who could slot in similar to Rivers. Would one get that from a Tomilinson. I just don't know.

If we are still bring in the kids , have enough freshness and we are still in the hunt then why not have a look at someone like Rosa. Costs little and if doesn't work its Bankers time
 
Turbocat said:
Just to take a different approach , do we look at someone like Rosa.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-04-23/rosas-free-agency-lure
Its all cost V output and although he would hurt the SC a bit more , he would not hurt in Draft picks. He would be a player who could slot in similar to Rivers. Would one get that from a Tomilinson. I just don't know.

If we are still bring in the kids , have enough freshness and we are still in the hunt then why not have a look at someone like Rosa. Costs little and if doesn't work its Bankers time
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Rosa plays across half-back and through the midfield. If we recruited him we would only be denying the likes of Thurlow and Bews game time. Too many good players coming through the midfield for him to play there as well. A pass for me.

Tomlinson is a player I have a lot of time for. Good hands for such a tall lad and very agile/quick for his height. Would be playing in most sides I think. Contracted for next year as I understand it so anything on a recruitment front seems to be on hold.

Next year we will have Vardy, Kersten, Walker and possibly Brown all pushing for that CHF place beside Hawkins, so I'm not sure it's an area of urgency, it just seems that way now because of injury.

With Lonners 30, Rivers 30 and Taylor 28, a KPD is an area that could be urgent as soon as next year. Obviously Taylor will play on, I'd be confident that JK could step in and play Rivers' role, but if Lonners decides to retire this year we have some issues. Hamling was impressive on the weekend but he might be on track for more 2016 I'd say for a permanent role. Brown I'm not keen on as a KPD and Toohey is a while off.

We could do worse than go after someone like David Astbury from Richmond who is out of contract this year as Lonergan's replacement, did a really decent job on Cloke a few weeks ago and is behind Rance and Chaplin when they're fit.
 
Turbocat said:
Just to take a different approach , do we look at someone like Rosa.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-04-23/rosas-free-agency-lure
Its all cost V output and although he would hurt the SC a bit more , he would not hurt in Draft picks. He would be a player who could slot in similar to Rivers. Would one get that from a Tomilinson. I just don't know.

If we are still bring in the kids , have enough freshness and we are still in the hunt then why not have a look at someone like Rosa. Costs little and if doesn't work its Bankers time
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Rosa is a vanilla hardworking midfielder with average-ish disposal. If we want that we have guys like Stringer and Schroder offering us that in the 2s (I recognised Rosa is a better player than them, I am just saying we are not short on this type of player).

If we are going for anything at year's end it should really be a key defender because as well as Lonners and Rivers are playing they will not be around forever. We could really use a KPD who is flexible to play tall-small so they can slot in now, and then once Lonners is gone take the bigger forwards also.
 
Turbocat said:
See I think this is flawed. "largely". There is no way Jacsch would gather 6 now. What he was and what he is are different. Its not quite like purchasing a car. Once you purchase the car and drive it out of the show room it loses value.With the draft pick used on a kid thee is absolutely no "truth" about the kids actual player value and what he was picked at , its all just prestige for early picks and irrelevant for later picks. The "Truth" is the longer they are in the system , the longer what they do and how they show their skillset plays out against an AFL framework. Who says that they were really worth the pick used, or if it was a strong or weak draft or they failed to show progress at the expected rate. Most of all if the kids do not play , they devalue. For what ever reason , whether they are injured, or can get passed whoever is in front of them

I suppose we at Geelong would be a classic in this, we put the slow build into kids and because of that I feel we would be very lucky to get what we paid for them.

But as usual Pure you have a point. With high picks of a certain calibre , and the unusual situation of having so many quality kids squashed into GWS and GC list. Rucks and talls are given more leeway for a slow start , maybe just a glimpse or an act is enough to show all they are on the right path and keep their value. The again sometime actually playing at the level shows just how far they are off the the pace.

And of course value is in the eye the beholder.

You must have a better feel than Jacsch and ORooke than me , but I suspect if Melb offered P3 for both they would be very tempted to take it an move on.
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I don't disagree with most of what you're saying but it kind of emphasises my point that you can't make a blanket rule, you have to take a case by case basis.
And on that basis someone like Jaksch who is a tall (who holds more value than smalls in trades) and is playing well at NEAFL but behind some good cattle, is going to carry some more value than a oft injured outside mid like ORourke.

You can't say all the players who aren't regulars will devalue a lot, some will some won't, and recruiters are intelligent enough to work out which ones should and which ones shouldn't. Keep in mind a lot of them having been watching these guys since they were 15, which is a lot longer than we have.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Rosa is a vanilla hardworking midfielder with average-ish disposal. If we want that we have guys like Stringer and Schroder offering us that in the 2s (I recognised Rosa is a better player than them, I am just saying we are not short on this type of player).

If we are going for anything at year's end it should really be a key defender because as well as Lonners and Rivers are playing they will not be around forever. We could really use a KPD who is flexible to play tall-small so they can slot in now, and then once Lonners is gone take the bigger forwards also.
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Vannila , well having a quick look at some highlights Id say he is not outstanding in anything but would be a good solid addition , much like Rivers has been. A player that can kick long goals , can accumulate high 30's at his best is pretty good vanilla. I agree he no top end player but would be another who would help breach the age gap. Don't get me wrong Im not a strong advocate , only that Id look and consider , a FA like this especially if we lost a seasoned player for what ever reason.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
I don't disagree with most of what you're saying but it kind of emphasises my point that you can't make a blanket rule, you have to take a case by case basis.
And on that basis someone like Jaksch who is a tall (who holds more value than smalls in trades) and is playing well at NEAFL but behind some good cattle, is going to carry some more value than a oft injured outside mid like ORourke.

You can't say all the players who aren't regulars will devalue a lot, some will some won't, and recruiters are intelligent enough to work out which ones should and which ones shouldn't. Keep in mind a lot of them having been watching these guys since they were 15, which is a lot longer than we have.
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Not all will , be most will. Lets see at years end how many kids the Suns and Giants lose for less than they paid.
 
Jagshemash said:
Rosa plays across half-back and through the midfield. If we recruited him we would only be denying the likes of Thurlow and Bews game time. Too many good players coming through the midfield for him to play there as well. A pass for me.

Tomlinson is a player I have a lot of time for. Good hands for such a tall lad and very agile/quick for his height. Would be playing in most sides I think. Contracted for next year as I understand it so anything on a recruitment front seems to be on hold.

Next year we will have Vardy, Kersten, Walker and possibly Brown all pushing for that CHF place beside Hawkins, so I'm not sure it's an area of urgency, it just seems that way now because of injury.

With Lonners 30, Rivers 30 and Taylor 28, a KPD is an area that could be urgent as soon as next year. Obviously Taylor will play on, I'd be confident that JK could step in and play Rivers' role, but if Lonners decides to retire this year we have some issues. Hamling was impressive on the weekend but he might be on track for more 2016 I'd say for a permanent role. Brown I'm not keen on as a KPD and Toohey is a while off.

We could do worse than go after someone like David Astbury from Richmond who is out of contract this year as Lonergan's replacement, did a really decent job on Cloke a few weeks ago and is behind Rance and Chaplin when they're fit.
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They are not like for like ; I see a player like Rosa as plug and play.If the spot was there I d have no issues putting on the list and seeing if he can improve the overall side. The cost would be opportunity cost , sure that why Id probably think in terms of if we lost a player probably. To me its like adding a Stokes to our mid group. Help smooth the advancement of of the younger guys.Lets face it you basically have 12 to 14 mids , if you can replace a Corey with a Guthrie fine. But if we were trying to replace Corey with a Stringer , I think someone with a 140 games odd would be a more solid option.
Tomilinson is fine , just what's the cost. He is not Caddy or Adams
 
Turbocat said:
They are not like for like ; I see a player like Rosa as plug and play.If the spot was there I d have no issues putting on the list and seeing if he can improve the overall side. The cost would be opportunity cost , sure that why Id probably think in terms of if we lost a player probably. To me its like adding a Stokes to our mid group. Help smooth the advancement of of the younger guys.Lets face it you basically have 12 to 14 mids , if you can replace a Corey with a Guthrie fine. But if we were trying to replace Corey with a Stringer , I think someone with a 140 games odd would be a more solid option.
Tomilinson is fine , just what's the cost. He is not Caddy or Adams
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Personally, I just don't see why we'd bother with Rosa when we have a bunch of young guys coming through.

We moved a few players to allow these younger guys playing time and I'd see bringing in Rosa as counter intuitive.

As good a Rivers has been at the start of the year, was having him on the list another roadblock for Mitch Brown's development?

A younger mid (younger than 24 or 25 for example) I'd consider but I suspect Rosa would be more attractive to teams like Melbourne (additional experience) or Carlton (to beef up a flagging midfield, especially with Judd looking like he is on his last legs these days).

If he was open to offers around the country, Brisbane and Adelaide would be good destinations for him.
 
Yoda_ said:
Not sure where else to ask this but whats the big knock on Jordan Schroder?
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Personally , I don't think there is one. Perhaps not brilliantly quick but the reason he is not getting games?..... Maybe he just doesn't have a super strong asset. Good kick, good at clearances...etc. Caddy has come in and just gone a little past him but I feel he would be getting games at 4-8 other clubs.
 
The Pivotonian said:
Personally, I just don't see why we'd bother with Rosa when we have a bunch of young guys coming through.

We moved a few players to allow these younger guys playing time and I'd see bringing in Rosa as counter intuitive.

As good a Rivers has been at the start of the year, was having him on the list another roadblock for Mitch Brown's development?

A younger mid (younger than 24 or 25 for example) I'd consider but I suspect Rosa would be more attractive to teams like Melbourne (additional experience) or Carlton (to beef up a flagging midfield, especially with Judd looking like he is on his last legs these days).

If he was open to offers around the country, Brisbane and Adelaide would be good destinations for him.
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Well Im certainly swimming against the tide on this one. All of what you say is hard to dispute , but id still maintain a mature FA is very cost effective , and if a certain player went down with a knee or went to another club he or players lie he would be worth a look.

Of corse id love a Dangerfield or a great potential kid from where ever, but under current FA rules players of Rivers age is the only top liner that we can have a free swing at. If the AFL change the rules then fine look at younger.

Its a fine line to tread of being a roadblock or building a bridge to cover a chasm. Im all for giving young guys a go but Im also aware of the Prismall rule (for lack of a better description) , sometimes there is a reason why they struggle and struggle and look denied there chance . They are short of the level.

So has Brown really been held back by Rivers? I cant honestly say I think he has. Right now , this year , I think we may just be seeing someone who may just get held back by Rivers ie JK but I suspect he will find a way into the side when ready.

My fear this year was Hmac using up Simpsons game time , but as its worked out he may actually be helping his development by sharing the work load.

I think we all agree , we have greater need elsewhere but the midfield is the key to any sides competitiveness. Ideally a quality kid 203 forward,ruck comes our way this year but that will not be happening thru FA.
 
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