Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Well the old saying goes defense wins you premierships which is usually true but its also much harder to keep up a full defensive effort for the whole 4 quarters against a high scoring side like Hawthorn, you have a lapse and a few mins later you can find yourself 5 goals down.
Its no coincidence all those cups are around a balance of ~70-75 offense and 65-70 defense its a sweetspot in the scheme of things.
Its no coincidence all those cups are around a balance of ~70-75 offense and 65-70 defense its a sweetspot in the scheme of things.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #1,678
The interactive squiggle generates them at noon on Tuesdays. But you can get a sneak preview by using its predictor, under "Show Details..." Which today looks like this:
Collingwood 69 - 107 Hawthorn
0.11 wins - 0.89 wins
Carlton 78 - 91 Essendon
0.35 wins - 0.65 wins
Geelong 99 - 56 Brisbane Lions
0.95 wins - 0.05 wins
North Melbourne 98 - 48 Melbourne
0.97 wins - 0.03 wins
Sydney 89 - 56 Richmond
0.85 wins - 0.15 wins
Fremantle 81 - 62 Port Adelaide
0.71 wins - 0.29 wins
Gold Coast 83 - 89 West Coast
0.42 wins - 0.58 wins
Adelaide 128 - 67 St Kilda
0.97 wins - 0.03 wins
Western Bulldogs 96 - 82 Greater Western Sydney
0.66 wins - 0.34 wins
Jeez I'd love to see an animated map for the whole season.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #1,680
That's what the interactive squiggle is! Click the "Start" button then "Next Round" repeatedly to play through the season.
By the way, I'm taking suggestions on how to improve/modify that thing over the off-season.
I believe Final Siren looked into that saying and found that defensive teams usually beat balanced teams but offensive teams generally beat defensive teams. Hence why most premiers are more offensive than balanced.
Thanks again Final Siren . For Port this confirms what needed to improve and has this year. Last year in our losses we got blown away a few times. This year, even in our recent run of poor form all losses have been sub-30, with half our losses under 10 points. Attack has improved slight, but showing up our glaring remaining issue is needing another KPF to take the load off Schulz and let Westhoff free to roam at his most damaging.Round 22, 2014
From pre-season to Round 22:
Taking Offence+Defence as a total 'potency' it looks a 6 horse race with the top 4 plus Port and North. With it Sydney, Hawks as the clear favourites, Fremantle then Port, North and Geelong around the same level.
Geelong around the same position as Port on the squiggle, but showing the value of experienced players able to close out the close matches versus just lose them (Port v Essendon - 2 points and v Pies 6 points) for finishing top 4 rather than likely to be 5 - 8.
- Apr 16, 2009
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Here is a version that draws a straight line from a team's starting position before Round 1 and now:
From pre-season to Round 22:
On thing this highlights is how much ground GWS and Melbourne have made up over the course of the year. They are still bad (especially Melbourne), but there is no longer an enormous gap between those two teams and everyone else. We are getting back to something resembling a normal competition, where the worst teams are at least competitive.
Sydney's year is amazing. That's a very large gain, shifting into very impressive territory.
But it's hard to ignore all those premiership cups around Hawthorn. The Hawks have moved to their flag-winning position of 2013 like it's magnetic.
what surprises me about this is that so many teams look to have made big improvements on their starting position, yet the only teams that have declined are collingwood and st kilda (brisbane looks about even trading offence for defence).
how does this happen? i would have expected it to be more or less a zero-sum game. is it something to do with a lower scoring season and the squiggle more highly rating defensive performances?
edit: also, why do hawthorn start from where they do when their 2013 cup is around where they are now?
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Actually the other way around: defensive > offensive > balanced > defensive. But I didn't analyse it properly; it's just a vague hunch. Details are here.
Hawthorn is not as offensively-focused as you might think, either, compared to high-attack teams of years gone by. It just looks like it, because this season is so defensive.
For example, in 2012, there were 7 teams with an offence above 65 and only 4 teams with a defence above 65. Just shy of two years later, the ratio is almost the reverse: there are only 3 teams with an offence above 65 and 6 teams with a defence above 65. And the high-defence teams have much stronger defences.
domsheedisgood
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- Aug 26, 2014
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I like. is clever. But does it work all the time? I might use it for betting and make some good dolla!! Thank you!!
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Did the squiggle have this guy banned for profiting off his genius?? #squigglewants50%
maynetenance
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http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m26cbdtfng1qh59n0o1_500.gif Dockers season on the squiggle
Youbuy. Youbuy.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #1,691
It wouldn't be that hard if there is a nice trove of data (results) somewhere. But I'm not sure if it would work as well for soccer because of the very low scoring. AFL has nice big scores and so you can derive good information from whether a team scores 60 points or 70 or 80. I don't follow soccer, but it seems like it only takes a little luck for a team to double or treble its score. Which would mean there is less you can learn from scorelines alone.
Agree scores would not help with Soccer.
How about the total player payments as a squiggle? That seems the best predictor in that business.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #1,693
Maybe so, but it wouldn't be a squiggle, since there's no offence/defence. It would just be a predictive model. I'm sure there are plenty of those around for soccer already.
- Apr 16, 2009
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what about shots or shots on target? those are all recorded as stats and usually give a decent indication of a team's strength within a game. maybe incorporating a modifier that accounts for conversion rate if there's a large variance in how often certain teams score from their shots.
Here's an idea: how about they get 6 points for a goal, and one point for a near miss....
Millky95
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Does the squiggle go into finals?
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According to the squiggle it's a race between Sydney and Hawthorn for the flag. Hawks are tracking about where they were when they won last year's flag, while the Swans have improved defensively from 2012 and are slightly better offensively. Would be a terrific contest should the two sides meet in another grand final, it's set up for another classic.
The LIVE Squiggle
