Oppo Camp Where Are the Swans At? (Serious Question)

[Brishawk]

I hope to have a serious discussion here about where Sydney are placed going forward. In my view this was their best chance at a flag for the near future and it is unclear whether or not they will have enough talent going forward to remain a genuine flag chance in the next few years.

Here is why...

Forwards:
The word I would use to describe the Sydney forward line is 'Treacle'. They could not chase our defenders. Gibson (32), Birchall (25), Burgoyne (24), Stratton (22), Lake (20) and Suckling (18) were virtually without an opponent once we won the ball. Scores from turnovers are a major part of footy. Against North, Sydney were gifted opportunity upon opportunity by poor disposal and decision making coming out of the back line. Swans midfield ran with the North midfield denying them opportunities for easy outs. When North did get out they burned the ball going inside 50 picking out the Swans extra man. Hawthorn were able to generate run from defence through our defenders and hit hard running players such as Hill and Smith. Once the defensive line was broken our skills kept the ball in our hands.

For Sydney to improve they need a more mobile forwardline capable of putting on defensive pressure. I'd tap Goodes on the shoulder and send Reid to the backline (see also backline). Goodes is fine with ball on hand but it was clear he didn't chase his opponent (stratton for much of the day) at all. Reid looks lost as a forward and just doesn't demand the footy. Get rid of those two and find a couple of small forwards that can be dangerous and put pressure on should be their priority. Seem to have a rash of players that can do this but most are very in experienced.

Midfield:
They were very disappointing but they don't have any great structural issues. Overly reliant on Jetta and Rohan for speed on the outside. McVeigh looks like he can't keep up any more and would be the one I can see falling away next year. Couldn't create space in the centre corridor and seemed to lack a plan B in the Grand final.

Defence:
This is where the real problems start. Richards could not keep up with Roughy nor could he in round 18. This is a time in his career where he should be the loose man in defence but they have very little KPD depth and the two likely candidates on their list have played 1 game between them. Frawley is a must target for them but I'm hoping they don't get him! Grundy took some nice intercept marks but provided little else in terms of run. Age is not on his side either.

Malceski was decent but looking likely he is going to leave. At 30 he isn't going to be there much longer even if he stays. Shaw was ineffective and the wrong side of 30. Rohan can and should of been better. The only consideration with him is his fitness i.e. can he stay on the park. Rampe is solid without being spectacular. Smith is a stopper (a good one) who doesn't provide much run. Sydney like their opposition to move the ball down the wing, use pressure to cause turn overs and then shoot the ball up the centre of the ground. using their elite users like McVeigh and Malceski to create the initial opportunity. Both of these players could be gone/less effective next season and I don't see Shaw getting any better. Desperately in need of new blood and I don't see a lot to like on their list. Will need to find players in the draft or through trade/FA if they want to remain a top team. I think they will need to replace Richards, McVeigh, Malceski and Shaw by the end of 2015 and the cupboard is bare . . .

Reid needs more exposure down back before he can be the man to build a defence around but he seems their best option to take a KPD role. The lack of alternatives to the senior players down back makes me think the swans will not challenge for a flag for at least a few years unless they are hiding some talent in the reserves that we haven't seen.

 

[ACTion Hawks]

Isn't this the team with no weaknesses (as at prior to27 Sept 2014)?

Seriously, you raise some good points and I personally like the reading. I am not sure it is the way it will go though!

I agree that they can make some changes, but they should have the personnel. If you add Tom Mitchell and Isaac Heeney (both very highly rated youngsters) and they adjust well, then you still have a strong team. McGlynn should be their Pou, although they do not have a Rioli.

I think this year their biggest weakness was their easy draw. This led to over-confidence and false perceptions. I hope the AFL give them another one!!!!

 

[Pessimistic]

We had as many grand final rookies in 2012. We lost, but we had good players and went one better.

They also have good players and will go one better

Also (and clarko and team members confirmed this) hawks had no doubt that sydney were capable of coming back hard, which fired our team to go in hard and keep it up all game.

Its not ingenious to call it a form of respect.

Take 2008, caught the cats off guard. But were only 17 points up at three quarter time, they had kicked the last two goals.
Its well known they resolved to make a special point of not losing to us, but id be willing to bet they have never been 17 points down since then and not had a bloody good go at coming back from that, often successful

 

[grizzlym]

Well, on-field prospects aside, their brand and by direct association, the AFL's expansion into alien markets, took a battering on the weekend.

You only need to refer back to all the media supplied narrative about how dominant they were going to be on the day. Fronted by new glamour boy Buddy, it was Sydney's Cup in the bag bar the actual game. We all know how that turned out.

 

[madhawksfan]

They will be there of thereabouts for the flag again due to their perennially kind fixture, having a great midfield and a proven match winner up forward.

The OP has highlighted their weaknesses well (despite supposedly having none) but another area where they are extremely weak is the ruck. Pyke is a serviceable ruck man but got his arse handed to him by BB and Hale and others little around the ground. They also lack elite ball users by foot and if Malceski leaves that really only leaves Hannebery and maybe McVeigh (although I question his ball use when he doesn't have 20 metres of space) who can hurt the opposition consistently. Outside run is another concern as relying on Jetta, Rohan and to a lesser extent McGlynn and Hannebery is fraught with danger.

However, they play the SCG well and will be looked after with the fixture so can't see them missing out on the top four unless they have significant injuries (as depth is another weakness) they will challenge for the flag.

They probably weren't counting on losing the Cola when they signed Franklin so if they don't win next year or the one after they will struggle to salute.

 

[arupist]

Well, on-field prospects aside, their brand and by direct association, the AFL's expansion into alien markets, took a battering on the weekend.

You only need to refer back to all the media supplied narrative about how dominant they were going to be on the day. Fronted by new glamour boy Buddy, it was Sydney's Cup in the bag bar the actual game. We all know how that turned out.

Well then, I am surprised the AFL hasn't disqualified us (for, ummm, I dunno, racist, sexist and homophobic supporters maybe) and handed the cup over to Sydney - for the good of the game.

 

[play2win]

Brishawk, I'm with you, the GF laid bare quite a few deficiencies in their list and gameplan. Their backline is ageing and we wont see much more of grundy, richards, malceski, mcveigh and shaw - maybe 1-2-3 years at most from each of them? grundy looked overweight to me. their rebound hbf'ers are nowhere near the class of ours or other topline teams if malceski leaves. 1 ruckman is always going to hurt them, is this the cost of buying 2 key forwards at such a high price? their small forwards are almost non-existent. despite this they still have strong and mature depth in the midfield that will get them past most sides in the comp. interesting to see what they do over the next few weeks.

 

[Paul Kersey]

Just got a copy of Longmire's "plan b" when things aren't going to plan - "put Franklin in the midfield".

Top 8 next year but not a threat in my view.

 

[hawksalltheway]

if only they could trade Tippett for Ryder....

 

[Pessimistic]

They are a perenially threabouts team who can take it if others stumble. Trouble is, this year we didnt

 

[Whirling Dervish]

Good analysis. They'll need to look at a few of those positions as you've suggested, but I don't think they're about to fall away.

Sydney went in as heavy favourites because no-one could look past the previous results. In turn, we shouldn't write them off on the basis of one catastrophe. They're a very good side and in all likelihood top 4 next year. As Clarko says, you aim to make top 4 to give yourselves a chance.

As grizz said, the problem is their 'brand' copped an absolute smashing. Also wonder how many of those who signed up on the back of acquiring Buddy won't renew?

 

[Raz0r6ack]

I'll have no sympathy for them when they fall off the face of the planet after the end of next season when GWS emerges into premiership contention and the success of the Sydney Swans isn't the AFL's number one priority.

 

[Hawk Dork]

The AFL will continue to gift them an easy draw and finals appearance
They will give them some more ambassadors to strengthen their deficiencies.
But The money spent on Buddy and Tippett hasnt delivered the advantage/GFs over Hawthorn they expected and has put them in a position that is very difficult to buy their way out of.
They could have done with Mumford and ROK for a bit of grunt.
Its going to get harder and harder to get the guys on minimum wage to put their head over the ball for the Bondi Billionaires to get all the salary cap and the kudos.
Bloods culture mythology was replaced by blood$ culture reality
Just look at the blood$ culture thread on the $wans board ,I think the only one they think who has it, is Kennedy,pretty sad that he bought Kennedy's Commando culture with him and they are trying desperately to co-opt it as their own.
They have been pummelled by Freo and the Hawks in 2 successive years with the game plan they pretend to be good at.
Getting the ball having some one run pass to receive a handball and bomb it to the billionaires isnt going to get them very far.

 

[hawksalltheway]

The AFL will continue to gift them an easy draw and finals appearance
They will give them some more ambassadors to strengthen their deficiencies.
But The money spent on Buddy and Tippett hasnt delivered the advantage/GFs over Hawthorn they expected and has put them in a position that is very difficult to buy their way out of.
They could have done with Mumford and ROK for a bit of grunt.
Its going to get harder and harder to get the guys on minimum wage to put their head over the ball for the Bondi Billionaires to get all the salary cap and the kudos.
Bloods culture mythology was replaced by blood$ culture reality
Just look at the blood$ culture thread on the $wans board ,I think the only one they think who has it, is Kennedy,pretty sad that he bought Kennedy's Commando culture with him and they are trying desperately to co-opt it as their own.
They have been pummelled by Freo and the Hawks in 2 successive years with the game plan they pretend to be good at.
Getting the ball having some one run pass to receive a handball and bomb it to the billionaires isnt going to get them very far.

this ! -and dont forget we gave them a nice touch up last year too....

 

[Wandering Hawk]

I've been posting and salivating over their looming backline woes all year.

It seems to me that they have a cap squeeze and yet desperately need some ready made kpd recruitment in a field where both the cats and Hawks will be looking for the same. They need to produce/buy about 4 quality new backs over the next four years apart from their current squad, let alone depth. And basically nobody is blooded. That leaves them very very lite. One season ending injury in their backline would shake their season.

Depth wins flags, and there's no way that they are getting backline depth. So they are just shooting craps and hoping.

 

[Randy Campbell]

They are left squeezing blood from a stone.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Moreover their ruck is crying out for a ready ruckman. Pyke is a placeholder and old to boot. Losses to their midfield and forward line of old stars simply can't get replaced due to these other constraints being more pressing.

I assume they will make top four next year, but I see them as behind PA Freo and us, so it depends on how the Cats Ess and North go amongst others. They are just hanging tight and hoping a soft draw let's them at best slip in if injuries hit us drastically.

 

[SSrixon]

I live in Sydney and they were at the Forresters in Surry Hills yesterday acting like *******s and disturbing me while I ate my steak. Sam Reid and Kurt Tippett were also making regular trips to the bathroom. People talking about our injunction culture need to look at the Bloodz. Is that what you meant by where they're at?

 

[Hawkk]

Well, on-field prospects aside, their brand and by direct association, the AFL's expansion into alien markets, took a battering on the weekend.

You only need to refer back to all the media supplied narrative about how dominant they were going to be on the day. Fronted by new glamour boy Buddy, it was Sydney's Cup in the bag bar the actual game. We all know how that turned out.

The Sydney based TV ratings for the Grand Final were the lowest of all their 5 GF's ('96, '05, '06, '12, '14)

The NSW populous have not embraced the Swans and no matter how many fluff pieces the North Korean Information Minister provides to the contray (Andrew Wu) the Buddy Franklin trade needs to be questioned...

Whilst membership and attendances have marginally improved (although not to a great degree) they're list development will be cooked in 5 years

 

[Argy]

I think you have to look at their potential in the light of how game plans might evolve into the future. Clarko predicted at the start of 2013 that the main change would be an increased accent on attack. We certainly saw Freo change toward a more attacking style toward the end of the season, and the effect of Port's success can't be underestimated.

I'm sure the Swans are talented enough to make top four for at least a couple of years, but if I were them I would be concerned about the running/attacking styles of teams such as ourselves, Port Adelaide and even, in the medium to longer term, GCS and GWS.

My feeling is that the Swans are quite one dimensional up forward and very susceptible to an attack at all costs style. I suspect that the reduction in CoLA (albeit renamed) and the fact that 20-25% of the salary cap is taken up by only two players will limit their ability to recruit good players to adjust to changing game styles in coming years.

I guess this pretty much corresponds with the thoughts expressed in the OP.

One more thing I would like to add that there is an unknown, but potentially very significant, effect of having two players take up so much of the salary cap. It has already been speculated in the media that some of the laziness of the rank and file players was caused by a subconscious feeling that they didn't have to work so hard because Buddy and Tippet would win it for them. Whether or not that's reality or just imagination is impossible to say, but it creates two classes of player and certainly works against the 'bloodz' culture they've been trying to develop over recent years.

 

[TyHawk]

Ten or so points of difference can be worked on, ten or so goals NOWAY!! They're in trouble especially if oppo clubs stop being so star struck before the first bounce against them and hit them at the contests and then have the balls to run,run,run!! Goal kicking Mids are very important against them as well. They didn't have serious injury issues and that may catch up as well. Make no mistake, the Hawks spoilt their plans as Shaw and Goodes most likely retiring after a GF win and making Malceskis imminent move all the more easier but we've completely caught them out! I was laughed at over the Swans board last week when I mentioned 'how can people be so dismissive of Hawthorns Midfield that has Mitch, Hodge, Burgs, Lewy, Hill,Smith, Shiels and co..?' Well they can sit and cop it sweet now cuz aside a few of them most of them deserve all the crap thrown towards them.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Let's remove Malceski, Richards, and Shaw from consideration at the minute. Johnson is assumed written off due to third knee injury.

The $yds backline is now:

Grundy. Played 25 this year. 164 games 28yo.

Rampe. Played 25 this year. 48 games 24yo.

McVeigh. Played 25 this year. 244 games 29.5yo mid/def

Smith. Played 23 this year. 121 games. 26 yo.

Laidler. Played 19 this year. 45 games. 25 yo.

Jones. Played 4 this year on debut. 19 yo.

Richards, X. No games this year. 1 previous. 21 yo rookie.

That's their total pool of listed defenders who have ever played a game at all. Seven, including both a one gamer rookie who hasn't played in over a year and a 4 gamer debut.

Lockyer, Aliir, Dick on list gameless.

Now you can choose to add Shaw or Richards if you wish, for perhaps a year, to prop this up, but they will be denying youngsters games. Or do you pull mids back?

So imagine you're the coach here. How would you rate this backline against the Hawks forwards for a gf? Who matches up to whom?

Roughead
Rioli
Breust
Gunston
Hale/resting ruck
Puopolo

Where do you hope to find the ten goal improvement? Or do you expect to even break even on last year's gf?

What depth if you cop 2-3 injuries in the backline. We are then talking about a serious risk of losing to even low teams.

 

[Gold Member]

Holes that need plugging now:
2nd Ruck
Small forwards/defensive forward
Tall options Reid/Goodes/Tippett slow as
Tagger/run with

Question marks over the futures of:
Jetta (wing)
Goodes (HFF)
Malcheski (attacking defender)
Shaw (rebounding defender)
Reid (no set position) (the type of tall Collingwood love)

Other potential problems:
How much is COLA reducing in 2015?
Ongoing and increasing Boooooooooooooooooo
Bondi Billionaire referencing makes Kurt cry QQ
Moral grandstander Goodes catches wind of alleged stem cell therapy has walks out of club on moral and ethical grounds. launches legal action.

Wishlist:
They buy Ryder
They buy Lumumba

 

[Cynic]

Smith - Richards - Rampe
McVeigh - Grundy - Rohan
Jetta - Hannebery - Jack
McGlynn - Franklin - Parker
Reid - Tippett - Goodes
Pyke - Kennedy - Mitchell

That's not a bad starting 18. The obvious issue is that forward line is just so slow. Goodes needs to retire & Reid traded. Get a defensive forward and a small forward and they will be right. I'd also traded Jetta because he is a pea heart though.

Maybe...

Smith - Richards - Rampe
McVeigh - Grundy - Rohan
Jetta - Hannebery - Jack
McGlynn - Franklin - Parker
Robinson - Tippett - Garlett
Pyke - Kennedy - Mitchell

Both players would breach the rumoured no dickhead policy but the reality is Sydney need to be trying for a flag ASAP and both players fill the holes cheaply.

 

[rjslcM]

Swans 2015 team
B: Nick Smith, Ted Richards, Dane Rampe
HB: Kieran Jack, Heath Grundy, Jarrad McVeigh
C: Harry Cunningham, Tom Mitchell, Gary Rohan
HF: Dan Hannebery, Lance Franklin, Luke Parker
F: Ben McGlynn, Kurt Tippett, Tim Membrey/Adam Goodes
R: Mike Pyke, Josh Kennedy, Issac Heeney
INT: Jake Lloyd, Craig Bird, Brandon Jack, Sam Naismith/Tom Derickx/Toby Nankervis

Defense: Not sure if Ted can handle the number 1 forwards. This key defensive post is their glaring issue in defense other than the way they structure it. Really going to need some dash out of there as Shaw and Malceski won't be there. 7/10*

Ruck: Pyke needs help. They have a few fellas on their list - I'm not sure how far along in their development they are though. Nankervis and Naismith seem quite young whilst a guy called Aliir Aliir seems like a project. More likely that Derickx gets a spot as second ruck. Would really need to contribute around the ground though. 5/10*

Midfield: Surely, Tom Mitchell must come in. Will show the others how hard to go. You need these young players with determination to compliment the cool, wise heads. Puzzled as to why he hasn't been given games. They will also be picking up a guy called Isaac Heeney in this year's draft through the NSW academy, he's one of the best if not the best for the draft this year. Should get a gig in their side. That will compliment Kennedy. As well as Jack, Hannebery and the other softies. I think one of Jetta and Rohan will be out in patches throughout the year - whilst they are admittedly outside runners, they just don't have any physicality whatsoever. 9/10*

Offense: Time to get a little more mobile. Buddy and McGlynn are so heavily relied upon for pressure acts. Tippett is a s**ttruck stuck in mud when it comes to defense yet will continue to play at FF to take a few marks and kick a few goals. Reid makes no impressive effort to lock the ball in, and Goodes did not on the weekend. Reid should be packaged up for a KPD. Brandon Jack would make a good sized small forward, but I'm not sure if he can pick up the intensity which McGlynn has. If Goodes retires, I suspect another taller forward will replace him (although it really should be a medium-small) in Membrey. It still is one of the best forward lines if they can get the right balance. They need to hold that ball in. I suspect it to be even better in 2015. 9/10*

*rankings are in comparison to the rest of the AFL, not the best teams ever.


All in all, I expect them to be better - which may not result in a premiership, just a closer margin in the Grand Final.

Of the players which I have listed in the team, in 2015 they will be turning:
Aged 29+:
Grundy (29), McGlynn (30), McVeigh (30), Pyke (31), Richards (32), Goodes (35).

Aged 23-28:
Parker (23), Hannebery (24), Rohan (24), Rampe (25), Bird (26), Kennedy (27), Derickx (28), N Smith (28), K Jack (28), Tippett (28), Franklin (28).

Aged 18-22:
Heeney (19), B Jack (21), Mitchell (22), Lloyd (22), Cunningham (22).

Avg age: 26.45

I don't think they have too much to worry about yet. Goodes, with his output at this age, is replaceable. I think they need ruckmen and small forwards to not only help Pyke and McGlynn but to replace them. The other issue (other than their lack of heart), as noted before, rests in their key defensive positions. These need to be looked at.

I want to make clear, that it would be unreasonable to say that their time is already coming to an end. If 0 was the start of their premiership window and 10 was the end of it, I would put them at 6 - about the middle of it at the moment.