Opinion Yes we can win the 2015 flag

[Footy Smarts]

I'm more confident about next year than I was about this year. As a rule players need 20 games to start contributing, 50 games to be reliable and 100 games to start hitting their peak at AFL level. Coming into this year we had:

13 with 100 games, 17 with 50 games and 23 with 20 games experience.
This year, assuming we lose Hunt and gain Clark via trades we'll have 14 with 100 games, 19 with 50 games and 26 with 20 games experience.

It doesn't sound like much but those players with extra experience should mean that if we get a couple of injuries come finals time next year we can look at bringing in a more experienced option rather than having Thurlow, Brown, Walker and McCarthy all playing in the same team despite all being very inexperienced.

 

[Jon Douglas]

I'm more confident about next year than I was about this year. As a rule players need 20 games to start contributing, 50 games to be reliable and 100 games to start hitting their peak at AFL level. Coming into this year we had:

13 with 100 games, 17 with 50 games and 23 with 20 games experience.
This year, assuming we lose Hunt and gain Clark via trades we'll have 14 with 100 games, 19 with 50 games and 26 with 20 games experience.

It doesn't sound like much but those players with extra experience should mean that if we get a couple of injuries come finals time next year we can look at bringing in a more experienced option rather than having Thurlow, Brown, Walker and McCarthy all playing in the same team despite all being very inexperienced.

And each season as we lose veterans - that number will not dramatically improve unless we institute a policy of resting veteran players so more youth can come thru and get some, or more, experience at senior level.

I am thinking we will lose 3 x 100 + game players (down to 10) and maybe we will add 1-2 in Clark and Duncan.

And we may add 2-3 to 50 games club. Not really enough - it is not the ideal re the age games experience. That is why 2016 looks better to me - and it also emphasises that we need to be the best in the business in getting a good free agent or traded player each season.

 

[Footy Smarts]

And each season as we lose veterans - that number will not dramatically improve unless we institute a policy of resting veteran players so more youth can come thru and get some, or more, experience at senior level.

It'll get there but it takes time. I think we'll be better able to rest senior players next year and perhaps leave one or two out of our best lineup. Guys like Caddy, Christensen, Motlop and Guthrie aren't youngsters anymore so that's 4 more players we should expect to act as leaders on the field. You can even add Murdoch and Blicavs to that. So we've got 6 guys right at the point of transitioning into experienced, reliable players.

We haven't had that many players go through that transition for years. Duncan probably did it this year but before that the most recent would've been Lonergan and Varcoe in 2011 and of course Varcoe's been injured a lot since. For the first time in a long time the number of mature players might start to rise next year. Over the next few years each time we have somebody retire we should have at least one young player develop into a more mature player. The way I see it, in terms of list profile, this year was our lowest ebb and we'll be transitioning more and more towards an age range that should be competing for premierships. Now the only question is whether the players are good enough.

 

[Jon Douglas]

We lose probably Lonergan, Kelly and Enright at the end of next season (2015).

Then in 2016 - SJ, Rivers and Bartel.

Then in 2017 Stokes and Mackie.

That is a lot of players to cover. The way to do it as senior spots and salary cap pressure opens up in these years we get one 25/26 year old in the free trade period and give Wells on average 4 ND picks and 1 Rookie pick. Keep turning over the players once they do not look like making it. When you have one of the best recruiters it is a waste of talent not give him picks.

After this season we will know about Cowan, Menzel, Bates, Simpson and Vardy. We just cannot keep carrying that many players for years without seeing hardly a game. Maybe all of them will make it ? But the hard call has to be made at the end of 2015. We will also know more about Brown and Kersten.

With 3 possible retirees and maybe 2 of these guys being delisted because they just cannot get up - then we have 5-6 senior spots open up and so Wells finally has a heap of picks to get his teeth into. Even if we get a free trade player Wells will still have quite a few picks. Play to your strength.

If we want to be a Top side next season and onwards we need -

1. That we get on average 1 really good player from another side that resolves a weakness and makes it a strength.

2. That Wells recruits well into the future and gets a very good player each year (that might take up to 3 years to be best 22).

3. That right now we have 3-5 really talented players who will come in the next 2 seasons and show good consistent form (maybe from Bews, Thurlow, Simpson, Kersten, Vardy, Murdoch and McCarthy). Then have third tier players starting to show some good signs - maybe Hamling, Hartman, Lang and JJ). You need in place players coming thru all the time.

Once this can be achieved our team will be at their optimum to win a Flag.

 

[SleazySimon]

I guess so and comparisons to Ottens are similar in my opinion, although Ottens did boot 50 goals one season while pulling down nearly 3 contested marks in each one of those games so he always had that natural forward brilliance which was innate from an early beginning.
Also a much larger frame, stood 202cm & weighed in at roughly 106kg's. Clark not so, he's a little smaller than Vardy but a naturally better tap ruckman.
I just hope he has not lost much of his athleticism, foot and hamstring injuries can be a real concern for big blokes in particular. The club must have ensured he went through a strenuous medical though so hopefully you are right, if he could get back to somewhere near his best, we improve immediately in ruck and forward.

Incorrect, Clark is 200cm, Vardy is 198cm.

 

[Footy Smarts]

We lose probably Lonergan, Kelly and Enright at the end of next season (2015).

Then in 2016 - SJ, Rivers and Bartel.

Then in 2017 Stokes and Mackie.

That is a lot of players to cover.

It's a fair few players to cover but compared to what we've had recently it's nothing. If you compare the players becoming mature, consistent players compared to those we lost, since 2011 we've lost a lot more than we've gained:

2011 - In: Hawkins, Varcoe*, Lonergan Outs: Mooney, Milburn, Ling, Ottens (result: -1)
2012 - In: None Outs: Scarlett, Wojcinski (result: -2)
2013 - In: McIntosh*, Rivers Outs: Chapman, Corey, Podsiadly, Hunt (result: -2)

So we're down 5 over that time and that's including Varcoe and McIntosh who are mature, dependable players but due to injury haven't really been that consistently.

But this year it should turn around. Duncan took a big step up this year and we're getting Clark in. Meanwhile we're probably not going to lose any mature players this off-season so we're +2 there. As you say we've got 7 more to replace but we've got Christensen and Motlop who apart from injuries are already at that stage. We've also got Caddy and Guthrie right on the verge with Blicavs, Murdoch and Horlin-Smith well on their way to making the grade. So there are 7 already where we'd hope at least 6 of them are quality, experienced players in 2 years time.

Then there are a whole stack of young players who we'll give the chance to develop to. You'd think we could get at least 2-3 of those guys to develop to this level by the time guys like Mackie and Stokes are hanging them up.

So the way I see it, for the next few seasons every time a mature aged player retires we should at the very least have 1 player develop to replace them in terms of dependability. So while we haven't been able to replace all the retirees of previous years we've now developed players to the point where we'll be increasing the number of mature players faster than they're dropping off. That's a very good sign for the future and suggests that in terms of list age, this year was our low point.

 

[cats_09]

Mitch Clark is potentially the only new 100 gamer we will gain next season - he has only 97 games, so if he gets on the park he will hit the 100 game mark. But none of our currently listed players will reach 100 games next year, our closest is Motlop and he is on 68 games, and we don't play 32 games in a year. A year later though will hopefully see Motlop, Bundy & Guthrie all with 100+ games to their name.

We should have guys hitting the 50 game mark though - Blicavs (45 games), Murdoch (42 games), based on being best 22 this year should reach that mark next year unless something happens, GHS (32) games is a chance while Smedts (33) I have no idea where he is at with the club and might need a big pre-season to see him with a chance of cementing a spot in the 22.

But we do have the milestones of Boris being 12 games off 300, Stevie J is 17 games off 250 so if he can not get suspended & injured he should make it, and then Selwood needs 16 for 200, while Rivers needs 18 and Stokes needs everything to go right with 25 games off the 200 mark. Hawkins, Lonergan & Varcoe should all reach the 150 mark and that will leave us with a void of players between the 100 -> 149 mark with only Duncan, McIntosh* & Clark* (* injury dependent) as 3 players in that games experience.

So we will lose more 100+ gamers next year then we gain (expected retirements), but in 2, 3 & 4 years we should start to see more guys reaching that milestone which is what we need. This also shows how poorly we drafted & unlucky with injuries we have been since our premiership in 2007 in that Taylor & Duncan are our only new 100+ gamers drafted since that premiership. Without the injuries I think that guys like Motlop, Bundy & Menzel would also be sitting around the 100 game mark - that us the experience we are lacking with the players we have drafted in the 5 -> 8 drafts ago bracket.

 

[Claude Balls]

Would have to have a dream run with injuries/fitness, so that most of the older guys have great seasons. No amount of improvement from the kids or new recruits will prove enough if the older guys, on the whole, either replicate this year's output, let alone decline.

 

[Sttew]

Its official; Cats' cannot win the 2015 premiership. James Frawley says the lure of of challenging for a flag with Hawthorn was the key reason for his switch.

 

[Cataholic]

Its official; Cats' cannot win the 2015 premiership. James Frawley says the lure of of challenging for a flag with Hawthorn was the key reason for his switch.

Wouldn't he choke if the Hawks crashed out and we somehow snuck a GF berth?!

 

[Sttew]

Wouldn't he choke if the Hawks crashed out and we somehow snuck a GF berth?!

Added incentive.

 

[Cataholic]

Added incentive.

Yep. They should quietly put his pic up on the wall in the change rooms.

 

[Partridge]

Wouldn't he choke if the Hawks crashed out and we somehow snuck a GF berth?!

Who would you back to finish higher right now?

 

[Cataholic]

Who would you back to finish higher right now?

The Hawks without doubt, damn it.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Yep. They should quietly put his pic up on the wall in the change rooms.

And put a set of darts on a table about 2.37m away

 

[witsend]

That as well as McCarthy proving to be a gun, Walker becoming a true power forward, the new 21yo ruck we add becoming the next Mumford.

It's possible but one awful lot of stuff has to go right.

Take Cowan. I saw him play live in a Nab cup game [ full game format] and do very well indeed vs a "hot Carlton midfield" in his first or second year. He can play and I understand the MC being willing to gamble one more year on him. If he repeats what I saw that day we have the missing mid.

Winning premierships is not easy everything has to come together at the right time. The odds would have to be very juicy to put a lobster on them right now.

What we must remember is that for ANY team to win a flag, "one awful lot of stuff has to go right".
We are amongst a group of 5-6 clubs with the culture, the list and the money/facilities to challenge for a flag. What if Hawks and Swans veterans suddenly
play to their age? What if the grind of run, run, run for 3 years gets to Port Power? What if Sandilands and Pavlich are injured in September?
We are in it if we stay healthy and in form. The talent is there.

 

[Vdubs]

Its official; Cats' cannot win the 2015 premiership. James Frawley says the lure of of challenging for a flag with Hawthorn was the key reason for his switch.

I don't anticipate many Geelong "likes" for your post.
Bit of a kick in the guts.

 

[Sttew]

I don't anticipate many Geelong "likes" for your post.
Bit of a kick in the guts.

I don't like it myself

 

[manboob]

Malceski has left the Swans.

 

[David the Cat]

Offer too good to refuse apparently. Good luck to him.

 

[manboob]

Yeah 3 years at 500k plus a development/coaching role.

 

[Bobby_]

wow! That's exceptionally good money. Actually, it's bloody ridiculous he'll be making that much money who's best footy is well behind him.

 

[Strangled Cat]

We're going to be pushing s**t uphill to win the 2015 flag. I can't see us getting close. I'd love to believe, but I don't.

 

[sauron256]

Can we win the 2015 flag? It's a tough ask. Currently there are a fair few teams that are ahead of us. On 2014 form: Hawthorn, Sydney, Port Adelaide are all well ahead. Probably Fremantle and North to be honest as well. I can't see them dropping off too much, so it would have to involve us improving a hell of a lot, with teams like Essendon and Richmond probably nipping at our heels.

We've got some scope for improvement. Mitch Clark is a good get and will provide some much needed support up forward. Injury-free preseasons to Bundy and Motlop will help, and we'd expect a fair bit of improvement from Guthrie, Hyphen, and Caddy, all of who showed glimpses of how good they can be. A high performance revamp should hopefully fix the issues that we were having in fading out of games in the second half, and we need the fitness to go the whole seasons. Hopefully less injuries will also mean that we can rotate our players a bit more.

We'll also need to hope for an injury-free first ruckman to take us through the year - probably a case of rotating between HMac and Simpson across the course of the year, hoping that one sets themself up as the best pick for finals.

We need to deal with our clearance issues if we're to be a chance. Winning the ball across half back needs to be a backup game plan for the times we lose clearances. That'll require good support for Selwood, and I expect a fit ruckman + Caddy + Hyphen all playing well should hopefully address this issue.

What else? We can hope for a fit Vardy to provide a backup ruck and float down forward. The bloke has massive upside and I'm excited to see him get a full season if possible. Menzel and Cowan are a chance to get back on to the park, and if we can get just one of them to play out the season then that's going to give us some improvement I think as they both have so much upside.

I know he splits opinion on the forum but I think that Blicavs brings a lot of upside in to our team. He can pretty much be molded into whatever we need, and it wouldn't surprise me if this is running across half back competing and attempting to turn defense into attack. He's got the ability to run all day, got good hands and decent foot skills, and is improving every game I reckon.

Can we make top 4 next year? It depends on a lot going right. I was convinced at the start of 2014 we'd still be up there even when people thought we'd slide. I'm not so confident about 2015, although funnily enough I'm more confident now then I was when I started writing this. For mine the big three things we need in 2015 are:

a) Fix the clearances issue
b) Get fit enough to run out games (and the season)
c) Provide support for Hawkins (i.e. a fit and firing Clark)

We saw in the last 10 minutes of the semi final against North how dangerous we are when we're winning clearances, getting the ball quickly in to our forward line and kicking scores quickly. Play that sort of tough, desperate footy across a season, and yes, we can definitely win the flag. It's a big ask.

Go Cats

 

[kicksome]

We're going to be pushing s**t uphill to win the 2015 flag. I can't see us getting close. I'd love to believe, but I don't.

pretty much on the money
we would have to have an absolute dream run with injuries to even get close, and we all know we never get lucky with injuries