Preview Geelong at the 2014 AFL National Draft, Thursday 27 November

[Turbocat]

We lost 5 mids this off season already with 0 replacements. We seriously lack depth in an area we aren't particular strong in as is.

Even if we happen to Land Danger, we still will have this problem with lack of rotations.

Personally I don't want project KPDS, Lonners has 2 years now. A kid won't be ready in that time. I would rather us just poach a ready made player from a weak team, rather then develop one.

Your argument is valid but its the same reason I wanted a couple of mature mids. Any mids we draft will probably take 2-4 years before they are ready to be at AC's level. In other word no early draft pick will be a high usage 2015 draft pick, they will be picked for the long term. In fact , we may get more immediate players with our late picks or Rookie picks.

 

[CatRiot]

Your argument is valid but its the same reason I wanted a couple of mature mids. Any mids we draft will probably take 2-4 years before they are ready to be at AC's level. In other word no early draft pick will be a high usage 2015 draft pick, they will be picked for the long term. In fact , we may get more immediate players with our late picks or Rookie picks.

The likes of a Bampton, Neale-Bullen and Blakely are ready for seniors next season as midfielders, no doubt.

 

[Turbocat]

The likes of a Bampton, Neale-Bullen and Blakely are ready for seniors next season as midfielders, no doubt.

Yes I doubt. Sure they may get a game or so but I really doubt any kid we draft would come in over the top Lang and Jansen etc

 

[year of the cat]

As silly as it may sound having just traded in a couple more talls, Durdin would be hard to pass up if he was around at 10. The guy was rated in the top handful of prospects until he broke his hand during the year. With JK he would assure our key defensive stocks for a decade. It's not often we would have access to arguably the best young key defender in the draft.

I'd probably lean towards a mid with our first - either Weller, Laverde, Ahern or Pickett - but I won't be disappointed if Wells calls out Durdin's name.

Whilst we are jam packed with talls at the moment we will lose Simpson, McIntosh, Brown, Lonergan and Rivers all within possibly 12 months. Then we will be crying out for a couple more. If we go early now, sure up our KP stocks for the next 5 or more years, then just go for mids the next 2-3 drafts.

I'd be using our latter picks on the likes of Bampton, Gore, Webb, Rose, Wigg and Miller.

 

[thegerman]

What happens if Lever and Durdin are available?

Looking at the vids, these two are the best of the bunch. I prefer cockatoo over Pickett.

It's going to be tough picking between any of these guys.

 

[ChappyUK]

Are there any mature ages we could get with our 2nd or 3rd pick?

 

[Two Planks]

Are there any mature ages we could get with our 2nd or 3rd pick?

Cavarra
Robinson
Petrenko
Marcon
Lambert

 

[thegerman]

Cavarra
Robinson
Petrenko
Marcon
Lambert

Don't forget Panos.

 

[meto]

Don't forget Panos.

Thanks German.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Your argument is valid but its the same reason I wanted a couple of mature mids. Any mids we draft will probably take 2-4 years before they are ready to be at AC's level. In other word no early draft pick will be a high usage 2015 draft pick, they will be picked for the long term. In fact , we may get more immediate players with our late picks or Rookie picks.

I would love a mature mid, but we haven't gone that direction once since FA started.

A quality young mid will come online quicker then KPD's, they can play in the forward pocket as a starting point, getting experience. (plus we are lite there) Any kid Defender we draft won't play more than 5 games in our backline in the next 2 years.

We have a chance to pick up quality in this draft, maybe not a Selwood but who knows?

 

[Warsaw Winder]

If Ahern's available at pick 10; he looks the goods. Dangerous, assisitive player, selfless player (in the geelong mould!)), great speed, but also wins the contest at clearances. Imagine he and motlop rotating through the forward line and midfield in tandem? Dangerous. Should he gone by then, maybe go Durdin. At 197, he's got the height to play KP or rotating ruck, and hopefully the skill to play at either position. I know we seem to have a glut of newly added talls, but maybe he could play defense for his first few years while we need him down there, then move forward, ala Allister Lynch. His aggression also seems a great sign, mabye finally a replacement for Moons!!! Jebus I'd like both of them though. Our later picks, I'm more than happy to leave to wellsy and co, sure they know best!

 

[Turbocat]

I would love a mature mid, but we haven't gone that direction once since FA started.

A quality young mid will come online quicker then KPD's, they can play in the forward pocket as a starting point, getting experience. (plus we are lite there) Any kid Defender we draft won't play more than 5 games in our backline in the next 2 years.

We have a chance to pick up quality in this draft, maybe not a Selwood but who knows?

Again , very true. More mids come on quicker than talls , one can find examples of both playing early but tall's usually take longer.
But its also true that we have not had a chance to draft a tall of this quality since 2006 with Hawkins, ironically the same year we got Joel.This draft is soaked with talls. McCartin, Wright, Lever , Goddard , Moore , Durdin ...not often that many talls get talked about in and about as top 10. My guess all of them would have been top 5 players in a mid heavy draft.

If we agree most of the mids we have drafted have been solid selections , we have had little impact early from most. Maybe its the type we prefer..going for skill and max high end rather than a play now in and under mature body.. but its also because we don't rush players,till they meet the required standard , have them right to play etc. I think Jansen is a good example. He was in body a strong player. He may not have had the tank but few mids we have taken were as big and strong and seemingly ready. Yet , not one game in Y1

In 2015 , guys like Thurlow, Lang , Jansen , Hartman and Im sure the club is hoping Cowan & Smedts will be pushing for regular games. Maybe Im missjudging the mids we will be able to get. If we could get Petrrica or Brayshaw maybe but I cant see us drafting Weller (who I like) Ahern etc and them pushing into our best 18 in 2015. They may play an odd game or two similar to Lang or Hartman this year. There is more chance of 2015 support coming from a late discarded in system player or rookie ie Panos type.

I will not be unhappy if we go for a mid. I agree we are light. If the club gos best available with P10 and selects Durdin as a rare chance to get a quality tall it may add to our height unbalance a bit.If Weller's is there or whoever and say he is best ...great. Guess we will see.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Again , very true. More mids come on quicker than talls , one can find examples of both playing early but tall's usually take longer.
But its also true that we have not had a chance to draft a tall of this quality since 2006 with Hawkins, ironically the same year we got Joel.This draft is soaked with talls. McCartin, Wright, Lever , Goddard , Moore , Durdin ...not often that many talls get talked about in and about as top 10. My guess all of them would have been top 5 players in a mid heavy draft.

If we agree most of the mids we have drafted have been solid selections , we have had little impact early from most. Maybe its the type we prefer..going for skill and max high end rather than a play now in and under mature body.. but its also because we don't rush players,till they meet the required standard , have them right to play etc. I think Jansen is a good example. He was in body a strong player. He may not have had the tank but few mids we have taken were as big and strong and seemingly ready. Yet , not one game in Y1

In 2015 , guys like Thurlow, Lang , Jansen , Hartman and Im sure the club is hoping Cowan & Smedts will be pushing for regular games. Maybe Im missjudging the mids we will be able to get. If we could get Petrrica or Brayshaw maybe but I cant see us drafting Weller (who I like) Ahern etc and them pushing into our best 18 in 2015. They may play an odd game or two similar to Lang or Hartman this year. There is more chance of 2015 support coming from a late discarded in system player or rookie ie Panos type.

I will not be unhappy if we go for a mid. I agree we are light. If the club gos best available with P10 and selects Durdin as a rare chance to get a quality tall it may add to our height unbalance a bit.If Weller's is there or whoever and say he is best ...great. Guess we will see.

Good points, I would still rather trade/FA one in, rather then develop. But each to their own.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

We lost 5 mids this off season already with 0 replacements. We seriously lack depth in an area we aren't particular strong in as is.

Even if we happen to Land Danger, we still will have this problem with lack of rotations.

Personally I don't want project KPDS, Lonners has 2 years now. A kid won't be ready in that time. I would rather us just poach a ready made player from a weak team, rather then develop one.

getting a KPD at pick 10 is not a project player, he'll be a quality player almost ready to go. Getting a KPD at pick 47 (or any other 18 yo player) is a project player. I think there's a big difference. If we can get a KPD with this pick we could well get a player of scarlettesque proportions for our backline. That is what wins you flags, midfielder's are a dime a dozen. They might even draft some mature-age mids this year so they can play immediately.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

getting a KPD at pick 10 is not a project player, he'll be a quality player almost ready to go. Getting a KPD at pick 47 (or any other 18 yo player) is a project player. I think there's a big difference. If we can get a KPD with this pick we could well get a player of scarlettesque proportions for our backline. That is what wins you flags, midfielder's are a dime a dozen. They might even draft some mature-age mids this year so they can play immediately.

Man, how many footy cliche's did you just say in that paragraph?

He won't get a shot in our back 6 Blake that's my point. He won't get games for at least 2 years when Lonners retires, probably along with Rivers he'll need 50-100 odd games to start holding a gorilla fwd.. And he won't come strait in round 1 2017 and Scarlett it. Won't happen, regardless of his pick.

So really, we're using a pick that will put them in the same position as Kojo or Hamling, waiting to get into best 22. I would personally rather try Blitz down there instead.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Man, how many footy cliche's did you just say in that paragraph?

He won't get a shot in our back 6 Blake that's my point. He won't get games for at least 2 years when Lonners retires, probably along with Rivers he'll need 50-100 odd games to start holding a gorilla fwd.. And he won't come strait in round 1 2017 and Scarlett it. Won't happen, regardless of his pick.

So really, we're using a pick that will put them in the same position as Kojo or Hamling, waiting to get into best 22. I would personally rather try Blitz down there instead.

I will agree to disagree on this one. But since you want to be such a dick about it, I will end the conversation now. Have a nice weekend.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I will agree to disagree on this one. But since you want to be such a dick about it, I will end the conversation now. Have a nice weekend.

So out of the blue you get all personal, call me names and I'm the dick!?

Real mature....It's just a discussion mate. No need to get so defensive.

 

[thejester]

I don't think you should be making drafting decisions (certainly not in the early rounds) based on whether or not the player can make an immediate impact. At this stage the team is built around a core of players drafted in 2005-6 (Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor - who was drafted in 07 but whose 'draft year' was 05, if that makes sense - and now Clark) and those taken in 09-10 (Duncan, Motlop - bottom ager in 2008, so fits in the 09 group - Caddy, Guthrie, GHS). Guys taken around them will be important, but those fortunes of the team are going to depend on the performance of those two groups. This year and next year's draft need to be about bringing in a group of players who will be able to replace the 05-06 group in 3-4 years time, not just guys who can be of use in a flag tilt in the next couple of years - although by the same token if they're good enough to be replacing guys like Selwood and Hawkins they probably could make a quick impression anyway.

 

[Daniel McL]

After watching highlights & looking at phantom draft descriptions, if Lever is still around at 10 get him, as we're not expecting him to then I would go Durdin next, if not him then Pickett or Cockatoo.

Or ya know...Petracca would be nice...

 

[Lana]

So out of the blue you get all personal, call me names and I'm the dick!?

Real mature....It's just a discussion mate. No need to get so defensive.

You should have added a .

 

[dazbroncos]

Am I reading correctly or are the same people who were criticising our trade period by taking talls, are the same people stating their claim to take a tall with pick 10? Interesting.

We will take a mid with our 1st pick so forget Durdin, Goddard or whoever else you have in mind and deal with the probables.

We'll take somebody with good foot skills, someone who has pace, someone with some poise and class, or someone with some x factor, but they'll be a midfielder who is versatile and has a good attitude.

I was leaning towards Pickett, but now I'm not so sure.

Maybe Ahern or Duggan as I'm not sure whether Laverde or Weller will fall to our pick. Don't discount Cockatoo either. It'll be one of those 5 I think.

I tend to agree. This pick should be pedigree, not flash - or meat and potatoes if you will. A ready made, instant contributor that will rotate thru the MF.
Im not after a 20 game starter but one that comes out of the blocks ready to go. We need that kind of support having older players on the list and having lost one of the younger brigade coming through. A good solid inside mid that can learn from the best, add a something immediately but not be relied upon every week as he will tire.

Go Catters

 

[CatRiot]

What happens if Lever and Durdin are available?

Looking at the vids, these two are the best of the bunch. I prefer cockatoo over Pickett.

It's going to be tough picking between any of these guys.

Lever carries the risk given he's done his knee. Lever arguably has more talent and leadership traits, but Durdin wouldn't be far behind on talent. Durdin is 197cm, Lever is 194cm. I'd go Durdin because he's taller, doesn't carry the risks that Lever does with his knee, and he is more likely to develop into the no1 defender given his height. Tall forwards these days tend to be 196cm+.

In my mind, Durdin and Lever are ahead of Goddard and McDonald.

 

[Cicatriz]

I would be happy with Bampton. Like Selwood, will make his team mates walk taller with his hardness.

 

[thejester]

So just about to drop the official preview, which SJ will edit into the OP as well. Bit of a shorter one this year - was going to write a screed on Wells and picking left-field but the move up to Pick 10 rendered it a bit moot, I think. Where possible I've linked to the excellent draft profiles put up by Chris25, and if they're not available have just gone with the video. Anyway, enjoy!

 

[thejester]

​

Where and when: Thursday 27 November, Gold Coast.

Picks: 10, 47, 55, 60*

AFL: Key Draft Dates | Draft Hub

Fairfax prospect profiles*: Tall Defenders | Medium Defenders | Tall Forwards | Medium Midfielders | Medium Forwards | Short People | Ruckmen

Phantom Drafts: Cal Twomey’s more-a-sort-of-power-ranking October Phantom | Paige Cardona | Knightmare | Chris25

Prospect Highlights: Ekul M

*Subject to change based on further delistings.

*Rather than link to both the AFL draft camp profiles and these I've just linked to the Fairfax ones, as as far as I can tell these are just the profiles from the AFL side combined with a blurb from the relevant U18 coach/team manager.

One of Geelong’s most pressing need going into the trade period was for class and depth in midfield and that’s only intensified with the departure of Allen Christensen. Luckily enough, there should be a few players available at Pick 10 who should help satisfy that need. Lachie Weller, the Tasmanian-cum-Queenslander brother of St Kilda’s Maverick, is a predominantly outside player who nonetheless has the ability to not only win his own ball but also to use his pace to clear stoppages easily. It seems unlikely he’ll last until Pick 10, with Collingwood, GWS and Gold Coast all surely being tempted to take a punt on him. If he does land at Geelong, he could make a huge difference - either by providing more power at the stoppages or the outside run and carry we need to make up some of the huge possession deficits we’ve been wracking up recently.

In the likely event Weller is gone, Jayden Laverde looks an interesting option. As his name suggests, he’s got a nice mix of old world glamour and new world bogan in his play. He’s a powerful athlete who looks good (despite his size) in traffic, and is really strong overhead. Although his decision making and disposal are good, they’re perhaps not quite at the level you’d expect from a top 10 pick. As the debate in the linked draft profile suggests, the question mark over him is whether or not he can - as many juniors have before him - turn into a full time midfielder rather than remain a (good) positional player. I have to admit I like the look of him but at the same time he just doesn’t strike me as a Wells type (which of course means he’ll get picked up by Geelong in a month). Jordan DeGoey ticks similar boxes in that he’s a nice kick who also has a really strong inside game - interestingly enough, he’s said that is something he’s consciously built up over the last two years after entering the U16s as an outside (self-described as ’soft’) player.

Jarrod Pickett is the other name being thrown up, particularly given the trade to Pick 10 has vaulted Geelong above Fremantle and West Coast. Taken at face value, Pickett is the stereotypical indigenous Western Australian - he’s agile, a good kick, and really really quick. He also produced some outstanding individual efforts in an otherwise ordinary WA team including a 21 possession, five clearances and three goal effort against eventual champs SA. I do wonder though if, as so often happens with indigenous kids, the perception of him is getting warped by the colour of his skin and the ease with which lazy cliches can be slapped on him. I see a player who is an outstanding athlete, looks good in traffic and has the composure (and core strength?) to ride tackles for a second and hit a target rather than firing off a wild handpass when he feels contact. I also see a player who makes blistering runs along the wing and then fires off a long, technically good drop punt with seemingly little regard for where his teammates actually are in the forward 50 (so he’ll fit right in at Geelong, I hear you say). I’m also a little wary given that so many of the players drafted in the first round as complementary outside pieces have not necessarily lived up to their initial billing (hello there Gary Rohan and Lewis Jetta). So if he does end up at Geelong, I hope it’s in the belief he can be turned into the fully-rounded midfielder we so desperately need rather than as an outside wing.

Other midfield names to consider: Paul Ahern (BOY OH BOY WOWEE WELLSY LOVES HIS CALDER CANNONS FOOTY FACTORY PRODUCTS), http://Nakia Cockatoo (haven’t seen him play so won’t comment a great deal except to say guys who produce in games close to the draft, even if they haven’t played for the rest of the year, often shoot up the order) and Liam Duggan (a versatile half back you say? Feel I’ve heard that before in relation to Geelong and drafting).

The other possibility is that Geelong grabs one of the many key defenders being mooted as first round picks this year. A KPD in the first round has been the white whale of Bigfooty Cats draft discussion since 2010, and the recruiting of Rhys Stanley, the defection of Christensen and the glut of talls on the list seems to have made the acquisition of a key defender over a midfielder unlikely. However, Geelong did put in a bid on Swans Academy defender Abe Davis (admittedly with Pick 70), suggesting they see a need, and when gaming out possible draft scenario it’s hard not to think that the trade up to Pick 10 was designed to put Geelong in pole position to grab a player like Sam Durdin, Hugh Goddard or Caleb Marchbank. Goddard was a little underwhelming this year after a strong performance as a bottom ager and Marchbank feels like a bit of a reach at 10. Durdin could be real value, however. He’s tall enough to carry the ruck at junior level but at 197cm would play key position in the AFL. He’s a really strong mark who could potentially play at both ends, so feel free to insert your own jokes about Geelong’s ‘has to be above 190cm to get a gig’ revolution here.

The later rounds become more difficult to guess for obvious reasons, but also because this is a slightly unusual draft - despite winning the Championships, South Australia has very few prospects considered worthy of the Top 30 (and one of them, Oleg Markov, didn’t even play). This is because of size - many of their best players range from a marginal height in the 180cm range to down right tiny at sub 175cm. The poster boy for this is Caleb Daniel, who won All-Australian honours this year on the back of three games for SA in which he averaged 20 disposals at 92% efficiency. The usual cliche about short players is ‘that if he had an extra ten cm he’d be talked about as one of the best players in the draft’; the thing is, even if Daniels had that extra 10cm, he’d still be considered marginal. At 167cm he is tiny. But watching him play, it’s not that noticeable - yes he’s short, but at some point you accept that and don’t quibble over just how short. What is noticeable are his football skills - he can kick the ball a long way, he hits targets, he finds the footy, and he’s got great agility and skills in close. Could be a really damaging modern forward pocket - able to make something happen in a congested forward line but also comfortable pushing up the ground and delivering the ball well inside 50. Probably will go (if at all) in the rookie draft, but if we end up using Pick 60 I’d be happy with Daniel. Other players in a similar mould who we might look at it include Harrison Wigg, SA’s MVP, and the Teia Miles.

I’ll throw two more names out there to finish, because at this point it’s all extreme guess work. He’s a bit taller, and is getting talked up as being a likely pick in the 30s, but Jordan Cunico reminds me a bit of Josh Cowan (get your injury jokes in here, try and make sure the tone isn’t too bitter) - just comes across as a solid footballer whose game hasn’t quite matured sufficiently to put him in the upper ranks of the draft and who has an outstanding tank. If we want to rebuild midfield depth, Cunico is the type of player we should be targeting and hopefully acquiring. Keenan Ramsey (video of him as a bottom ager here) could be another who lasts to Pick 47. Cancer took one of his eyes at age two, but remarkably he’s thrived as a key defender for Port Adelaide and South Australia. Didn't really notice him in the SA games I watched, suggesting his rebound game could improve, but clearly reads the play well and is really strong overhead - what you want in a defender and adequate compensation I think for being 192cm.