- May 16, 2013
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Neither of those teams will be remotely close to top 4 status by year's end.
West Coast / Collingwood and the top 4
- Thread starter demondavey
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- Jun 22, 2014
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You would want to hope North don't finish top 4 considering the results against hawthorn freo and adelaide.
- May 16, 2013
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What I want to and do hope for is that someday I'll express an opinion on BF and people won't think it's just open season to hurl an insult at my club. Is this thread about North's top four hopes or results? I don't think so.
How have Collingwood and West Coast fared against those teams so far this season? Not much better. Though, luckily for them, unlike North they've only had to play one of the each so far.
Both teams have beaten only one finals side from last year and on both occasions it was during a shaky patch of form for that team. Both sides have been seriously found out when they came up against a genuine challenge - Collingwood against Geelong, West Coast against Fremantle. Both have had very easy earlier fixtures which are going to get significantly more stern in the weeks to come (yours does this Sunday, for example).
I wouldn't consider either side a guarantee to make the top eight this year, in fact I'd still have them both as outside chances who will probably fall short - a prediction I'm happy to be called out on in September if proven wrong. Top four seems laughable.
- Jun 22, 2014
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I wasn't trying to insult you or your club, I was just saying North melbourne against the top sides have not fared well this year. As for collingwood I see us finishing 10-12th and think North will beat us this weekend. West coast I believe may finish 7th or 8th.
- May 16, 2013
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Fair enough, but it's still not really a relevant comment for this thread.
I agree more or less with your assessment of where the teams will fall on the ladder - West Coast I don't think are top eight material without Mackenzie et al., but they might manage to sneak in there anyway thanks to the awesome percentage they're building. I had them tipped for finals this year before they got hit by the injury plague, I thought that would knock them down a peg but maybe they'll surprise me. I don't see them doing well in finals if they do make it in.
- Jun 22, 2014
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Yep I agree, can't see them doing well in the finals either. Anyway good luck on the weekend I hope it's a good game either way.
For anyone to think Collingwood are a top four chance must seriously know next to nothing about AFL. I also take it OP didn't watch the first quarter of the derby this year? Hawthorn and Sydney will do the same to them, eagles are nothing more than an average team with a very good fixture.
Massey Ratings provide an interesting statistical snapshot of strength of schedule.
So far the teams with the easiest draws (based statistically on the rankings of all the sides) are Adelaide, WC, and Collingwood. It's no coincidence they're near the top 4.
But saying they have no chance because they have had easy draws and will get found out ... this is incorrect as they still have dream draws in the future. On the run home, strength of schedule is WC (13th), Ade (14th), Pies (15th), and GWS (18th). It's very likely that one of these sides will finish 4th, I would say WC or GWS are most likely, but wouldn't count the Pies out just yet with their golden draw.
So far the teams with the easiest draws (based statistically on the rankings of all the sides) are Adelaide, WC, and Collingwood. It's no coincidence they're near the top 4.
But saying they have no chance because they have had easy draws and will get found out ... this is incorrect as they still have dream draws in the future. On the run home, strength of schedule is WC (13th), Ade (14th), Pies (15th), and GWS (18th). It's very likely that one of these sides will finish 4th, I would say WC or GWS are most likely, but wouldn't count the Pies out just yet with their golden draw.
If either make the top 4 good on them, but Freo, Swans and Hawks will be licking their lips in anticipation.
we are a better side than last year - elliot yeo, duggan and sheed improve our midfield out of sight - this week with no yeo watch us lose potency
having said that - the first quarter against freo - we arent orphans there = the only team ive seen stand up to freo in that first - is what? port and the dogs - hawthorn and sydney didnt go so well either right? i dont believe any team walked away anything less than awed by freos first quarters.
weve beaten port - who beat hawthorn and took it right to your lot at home but havnt looked impressive since
thrashed gws - who beat hawthorn
i dont see us beating sydney or hawthorn - but i dont see a pantsing either - hawthorn will stretch our depleted backline
then aside from all that - our ludicrously easy draw will help - although i see young players bogging down as the season grinds on.
but yeah we probably are a pretty average team - like 2/3rds of the afl this year - weird old year for footy tipping
How is Collingwood even in a conversation for top 4 contention?
The only teams you have beaten so far is the bottom 4 and then Essendon who will finish 12/13.
If you drop one of those games the heat on fair and square on Buckley
The only teams you have beaten so far is the bottom 4 and then Essendon who will finish 12/13.
If you drop one of those games the heat on fair and square on Buckley
robertg22
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When you say 'you', it's like you're implying that Collingwood supporters are trying to say we're going to finish top 4. Most Pies supporters think we'll struggle to make the 8.
We didn't - and for the most part, we won by huge margins, as we should have..
Wait, so you're holding it against us that we haven't played Hawthorn and Sydney, while totally discounting the fact we beat Port in Adelaide (where we traditionally suck) and smashed GWS.
GWS is a much improved side and will likely overtake us next year IMO, but they're not ahead of us right now.
It is pleasing that there aren't many (if any) WC fans on here trumpeting us. We know we're not going to win the premiership this year, but we're enjoying the improvement and are looking forward to the future, even if that will involve getting pantsed by GWS and GC in the years ahead, at least we'll get smashed by less than half the league.
just my opinion. probably as right as yours.
- Feb 13, 2003
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This season will even out as the draw continues to evolve with all teams playing each other. We played 5 games now we should really win however nothing is a given this season, some crazy results, we then have Freo at Lonny which is a blessing for us because had it been in WA we would be cactus.
I expect top 4 to be -
Fremantle
Sydney
Hawthorn
West Coast ( soft soft soft soft draw )
Adelaide
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne
I expect top 4 to be -
Fremantle
Sydney
Hawthorn
West Coast ( soft soft soft soft draw )
Adelaide
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne
I don't think many WC supporters really think this is WC's year due to the key injuries and still too many young kids. Plus the cross town rival looks one or two levels above. However the future looks bright with some good recent recruiting, big improvement in other players and a good coach.
HBF
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- Sep 24, 2002
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Agreed.
Collingwood have beaten the bottom 4 teams.
Despite what the media feeds us, no way they'll be anywhere the top 4 by years end.
In fairness...
1. Freo
2. Hawthorn
3. Sydney
4 ???
Who comes 4th? Port? North? Adelaide? GWS? There's no clear answer, so with our soft draws, WC or Collingwood should at least be close....
MotleyLemon
Norm Smith Medallist
Confused by Collingwood fans saying "they blew it" and "if we just put Brown on Hawkins from the start" against Geelong.
You lost by 40 points, not like it was less than a goal or something... Bizarre.
Also OP locking in this weekend as one of the games West Coast will absolutely win is a bit weird. Geelong are 15-6-1 since 2000 against them, and West Coast's 6 wins in that time have been by an average of under 10 points.
Geelong's average winning margin is over 10 goals...
You lost by 40 points, not like it was less than a goal or something... Bizarre.
Also OP locking in this weekend as one of the games West Coast will absolutely win is a bit weird. Geelong are 15-6-1 since 2000 against them, and West Coast's 6 wins in that time have been by an average of under 10 points.
Geelong's average winning margin is over 10 goals...
This genuinely made me smile, not because it isn't true.
But rather because it reminds me of the old school yard chestnut, takes one to know one.
And yeah I note your sentiments that in making your comments, you would hope the comeback wouldn't be about the Roos.
But you do leave yourself wide open, particularly by using terms such as remotely when arguably WC is a 6 to 10th placed side.
Yes they would, but Freo would clearly prefer to avoid a derby final and play a travelling North, Tigers or Bombers.
I for one, would love to see a nothing to lose WC playing against a rampant favourite in Freo. Fair chance there would be some sore and sorry boys on both sides in the aftermath.
- Jul 7, 2014
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Sydney wouldn't be too enthused about the prospect of facing the Pies either.
