West Coast / Collingwood and the top 4

[demondavey]

West Coast have clearly surprised everyone this year in sitting 6-2 and 2nd on the ladder after 8 rounds. Having a discussion last night with a friend, i have penciled in the top 3 but am at ends to work out who might finish 4th;

Fremantle
Sydney
Hawthorn
_________ ?

Looking at the draw, the Eagles have 7 games at home remaining, and looking at that, i see them winning 5 of those for sure;

Geelong
Essendon
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda

They also play Fremantle and give an upset. They also play North, Richmond, Gold Coast, and Adelaide away. There is potentially 8-9 wins from the remainder of the season with the chance of an upset on either side for them. Is this enough for a top 4 finish? I think it might well be.

Collingwood also looks a great chance to get to 4th as they play;

North at the MCG
Melb at the MCG
GWS at the MCG
Eagles at ES
Bulldogs at ES
Melb at the MCG
Carlton at the MCG
Richmond at the MCG
Geelong at the MCG
Essendon at the MCG

I would think they should win 9-10 of their remaining games and especially have good momentum up the ladder on the back of the next 3 games (North, Melb, GWS), and then (Melb, Carl, Rich) at the latter stage of the season.

Adelaide has not a bad run home either, but i think they don't have the advantage of West Coast and Collingwood in terms of as good a draw. I see them finishing 6th. I don't think GWS will finish there as it is a long year and I think they will run out of steam.

What are some thoughts on this and who will take 4th position?

 

[swiftdog]

Pretty sure there's already a top 4 thread. The thing about Collingwood at the moment is that we're 1-3 against other top 8 aspirants so far this year. I still have us missing the finals with 11 wins let alone not making top 4. In saying that I only had 2 games separating 4th and 13th, anything can happen.

 

[Pie in the Sky]

North and GWS are not easy games at all, think we'd nearly going in as underdogs for both. If we win those two plus Melbourne we can maybe start to think about it, but I would be shocked if we finished fourth, sneaking into the 8 would be a good result for where our list is at.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

Collingwood are no where near being a top 4 side.

 

[Purple Suit]

I can't see West Coast beating Freo in the 2nd Derby. They have lost the past six Derby's and Freo need to win it to draw level head to head for the first time ever. Freo will also be coming off a loss to the Saints in Melbourne so will be fired up.

 

[demondavey]

I think Collingwood have a very good chance of being top 4. Will make finals at an absolute minimum as well.

 

[Oneiros]

I can't see West Coast beating Freo in the 2nd Derby. They have lost the past six Derby's and Freo need to win it to draw level head to head for the first time ever. Freo will also be coming off a loss to the Saints in Melbourne so will be fired up.

Nice touch

 

[Quinz]

I wouldn't go penciling in games too far ahead for either team at this stage. Both have plenty left to prove. But it does seem like there is a spot open in the top 4.

 

[Fireballs]

Who cares the flag is ours.

 

[Mkcaptain]

We're losing to Geelong, Richmond, and Adelaide. We're battling to make finals, let alone the top 4

 

[MisterMarcus]

Collingwood have beaten the bottom 4 sides (Carlton, Gold Coast, Brisbane, and St Kilda).

Apart from Essendon, clubs who are remotely a contender this year have beaten them.

They've had a reasonable run so far, but the draw gets tougher after the bye (Freo in Perth, Port in Adelaide, Sydney in Sydney, Hawthorn. Playing GWS and West Coast in Melbourne is no easy task either).

 

[Masto]

I can't see West Coast beating Freo in the 2nd Derby. They have lost the past six Derby's and Freo need to win it to draw level head to head for the first time ever. Freo will also be coming off a loss to the Saints in Melbourne so will be fired up.

Does Ross Lyons feel guilty for leaving Saints so he tanks against them?

 

[MisterMarcus]

West Coast have also flogged the bottom four sides, although they do have 2 wins against better quality opposition.

 

[Masto]

West Coast have also flogged the bottom four sides, although they do have 2 wins against better quality opposition.

Which category do Geelong belong to?

 

[Donakebab]

Hey OP, did your crystal ball predict GWS beating Hawthorn? How about Bulldogs over Sydney or Brisbane over Port? s**t doubt you could even predict your own team getting up against the Dogs, yet you're confident that Collingwood will go 9/10.

Need to calm down on these knee jerk threads, this season is so even it's unpredictable week to week, let alone the rest of the season.

 

[Purple Suit]

Does Ross Lyons feel guilty for leaving Saints so he tanks against them?

I think so. Fun Fact - Saints are the only team who have beaten Freo the last time they played against them.

 

[Tazmania]

I think so. Fun Fact - Saints are the only team who have beaten Freo the last time they played against them.

The last two times!

 

[MisterMarcus]

Which category do Geelong belong to?

I'll let you know after this weekend

 

[jakson68]

Collingwood has games against North, Melb and GWS coming. From what I have seen this year, there is no easy win in any of those games.
Lets not let a few soft kills against the bottom sides lead us into a false sense of security. Anything can happen this year, though I still don't have Collingwood as a top 8 side, next year yes but this year no.
The Pies are a work in progress, so as for top 4, I think if that was to happen, we would go out in straight sets and that would damage the mindset of our younger players more than if we didn't finish top 4.
It is going to be an awsome finish to the year with as many as 10 teams trying to get the last 4 places in the eight.

 

[Marley10]

To be honest, it is those two that I expect to go down throughout the season. They've just been really good at smashing the bottom teams.

West Coast can make the 8, but I don't think Collingwood will.

I expect Richmond, Essendon, North and Port to get stronger throughout the year. Percentage though might have West Coast better placed when it comes to the fight for the 8 at the end of the year

 

[The King!]

we arent locked in the top 4 yet

 

[master bate]

Collingwood have the worlds sweetest draw this year. (Note: not every year). But Carl, Melb, Rich, Ess, Geel twice is just a thing of beauty. But they've already lost to Rich and Geel and hopefully Melb serve it up to them.

All that said they should aim to make the 8 and play a good final. That would be a big year for them. Top 4 would see them bundled straight out IMO and set a hard standard for next year when they are still a young side.

West Coast, Adel, Port, North and GWS are contenders for that top 4 spot. Yes one or two of those teams might not even make the 8 but if they hit form they've got the ability to get on a run.

Coll, WB, Rich and Geel and Ess are fighting for spots in the 8.

 

[Lockyer24]

We are no chance of finishing top 4. If we scrape into the 8 I'll be happy.

 

[J Albert]

No one at the Collingwood board thinks we're going to finish top four. We will fight for 7th or 8th and that's only if we win a few 50/50's, and we're 1/3 on those so far.

 

[Tyberious Funk]

If the Eagles make the 8, I'd be pretty stoked. But I think a top 4 finish is out of the question.

I suspect that there are just too many young players in the team that lack the fitness base to maintain high-intensity throughout the season.