- Apr 4, 2013
- 13,670
- 16,890
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
Anyway, Fox Sports and Champion Data have stolen Final Siren's IP, no one is stealing Roby's. I think that explains enough. Power Rankings: Too weird to live and too rare to die.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Anyway, Fox Sports and Champion Data have stolen Final Siren's IP, no one is stealing Roby's.
Yeah but how many beans.I made money on Fremantle today.
This year nearly every year the Squiggle changes it's mind on who will play in the Grand Final. It's still got Fremantle making it. They won't get there with a 10 foot pole. So what happened? Wasn't it a race for the flag? Surely it won't get it wrong two years in a row?
Yeah but how many beans.
Roby, you predicting that Freo won't make it to the grand final makes me surer that Freo will.
Your predictions simply have no credibility whatsoever whereas the squiggle is actually based on logical and substantiated assumptions.
After your complete meltdown in your own thread, I doubt it. The term 'cautionary tale' now has a synonym that is also a neologism: Roby.I will continue to make money
Can I have at least one shred of evidence regarding dickish behaviour from Final Siren?
As for you Roby, I don't even need to leave this thread.
I'm not going to get into debate about everything you've said otherwise will be here for a very long time.
There is a reason why I posted in the power rankings thread tips against the Squiggle, because I knew how it performs. I was probably hitting Max's website two or three times a day which I bet (excuse the pun) is more than anyone here. I could suggest an improvement for the Squiggle's algorithm quite easily with one little tweak, but why should I given Final Siren has been a dick for the last couple of years. I never actually reported him because I really didn't care in the end. But I knew it was ultimately just jealously.
His model sits in bottom six of the age tipsters. This week by betting against it you would have return nearly double your money with 7 of the 8 lines coming up. If you think it's an oddity, it's not.
It's not very good at predicting the Grand Final because last year he tipped Sydney when nearly every other model tipped Hawthorn. Hawthorn didn't just win, they won by 10 goals. If it is ultimately a race for the flag in squiggly lines and if it can't even pick the one game it matters what does actually do well?
- Is it good at tipping?
- Does it beat the market?
- Is it good with margins?
Most tipsters tipped Essendon and Essendon were favourite. Having said that only two tipsters in the age tipped a higher margin for Essendon than Squiggle. Even leading tipsters tipped Essendon this week.
You can't just say there is limitations to a model when most people tipped Essendon. It's too simplistic of an assessment and doesn't add anything. The reason why Essendon were favourite is because Essendon were much more competitive against the premiership favourite and the measuring stick of the competition. St Kilda lost 63 points to the Hawks while the Bombers only lost 38.
The problem lies much deeper. You see you get one thing incorrect and everything falls. Bulldogs are not rated at the moment and I understand why but Saints played well against them. Neither is Melbourne. I'm guessing that they will now beat Essendon next week. Again I checked the squiggle and it's tipping Essendon over the Dees. But the Bombers are still very injured they played like s**t against a team that the Dees nearly beat, is it so hard to create a model that will tip Melbourne next week?
I can tell you that I am an awful tipper.
The human brain is a machine; a quantum computer.
Roby, you predicting that Freo won't make it to the grand final makes me surer that Freo will.
Your predictions simply have no credibility whatsoever whereas the squiggle is actually based on logical and substantiated assumptions.
Can I have at least one shred of evidence regarding dickish behaviour from Final Siren?
As for you Roby, I don't even need to leave this thread.
so this thread can focus on what it's really good at: ludicrous rationalizations.
Adelaide has hung around near the top of the Power Rankings since 2012. One of these years they will come good again and prove the system's genius.
The Rankings did predict at one stage they were more than 50% chance of making despite never been odds on. Just twisting facts.Ah, so when you said, "Last year the Power Rankings tipped the Tigers to make the finals with 6 games to go," you meant: "Last year the Power Rankings calculated the Tigers had a 12% chance of making the finals, which was worth a bet given the odds, although I didn't tell anyone about this until Round 21, and until then said they'd miss."
It depends. Sometimes Roby gets backed up and the rankings aren't released for days. But other times, like if he's been eating dodgy kebabs,
If instead of picking Richmond as your upset of the round, you had randomly selected any other game, there's a 62.5% chance you would have been right.
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2015-afl-power-rankings.1091941/page-34#post-38628605His explanations make no sense, his power rankings bear no resemblance to reality, and his view on umpiring teeters on the brink on insanity,
A power ranking of Roby's greatest moments? Eg
And many more...
- Gold Coast v Carlton implosion
- 3th (or was it 4rd?)
- Input error
- Melbourne to 4th
- Tipping Bulldogs upset over Sydney
Wait, you're behind the squiggle?! Wow. I've always said an insightful human observer will out-tip the squiggle. It's a simple algorithm that anyone can do with a calculator, Year 9 level maths, and no football knowledge beyond the scores and venue.
You're saying that by adding, let's see, however long it takes to watch 162 games of football so far this year (400 hours? 10 working weeks!), personally review every umpiring decision/non-decision, track the ins and outs, rate every player in the AFL, and do whatever else to track all the other variables you monitor, after all this, you have managed to...
*checks Collingwood result*
Roby tip: Port Adelaide
Squiggle tip: Collingwood by 6
Actual result: Collingwood by 6
... you have managed to do worse.
Just look how optimistic he is. Flat on his back, still gives the thumbs'-up. Inspirational stuff.
Although given the birthday on the weekend, I wonder if this is a self-inflicted injury, like his Adelaide ranking.
Poor lil fella.Final Siren below.
The Rankings did predict at one stage they were more than 50% chance of making despite never been odds on. Just twisting facts.
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2015-afl-power-rankings.1091941/page-34#post-38628605
And that's 2015.
2014 was no better.
Final Siren posted the following after I was seriously sick in hospital.
Yes very funny and empathetic.
I have to respond.
Can you point to final siren being a dick to you? I'm genuinely curious whether this is being a dick or just constructive criticism.
This thread does a number of things:
1. It tells you who is most closest to the flag
2. It tells you the balance of all the sides, whether they're more attacking or defensive
3. It tells you how well the defense and offense of the teams are going and tells you in a much more objective manner than the eyeball test
4. It provides you with a generally accurate depiction of who are the better sides and who are the worse sides
None of these are tipping or betting, it's not even the main aim of the thread, which is called Race for the flag, in squiggly lines it says in the title that this is a thread designed to predict who will win the flag. Ultimately, there's only one tip that this thread cares about, and it's the last and most important one.
Final siren has posted his rate on predicting grand finalists and preliminary and semi finalists. It's pretty impressive. For the record Sydney were favourites for a lot of models, champion data predicted a Sydney win, the squiggle predicted a Sydney win by 10, footy maths predicted Hawthorn by one point and footy forecaster predicted a Hawthorn win by 11 points. Nearly every model was at least 40 points off the margin.
There's that, there's also St Kilda's wooden spoon season in 2014 where they conceded the most points of any side scored the second least amount of points, and the fact that Essendon only lost to Sydney in Sydney by 12 points.
So form matters right? Well footy maths factors in form and it's tipped 70 and the squiggle has tipped 71. Factoring in injuries opens up a pandoras box of problems that you've experienced yourself, how do you determine the WAP (wins above replacement) rating of a player given this is a game where individual performances can't be separated? You end up not knowing the true value of the replacements and plus, you never know the true value of the stars because this is a league which is never devoid of injuries. You want to say that Essendon play better with Carlisle? Go ahead, you're right. You want to create a power rankings system which accurately bakes injuries into its system and works? I've never seen one which actually functionally works, and that counts yours. You haven't statistically proven that Gold Coast is the best side in a league without injuries because there is no data for that in the first place.
As I said, both systems don't peg Gold Coast right, which is not surprising, they're a young side, no-one really knows their true weight.
So why are you abusing final siren for not tipping well then?
Humans are wonderfully clever, inventive and can think of ideas and create things that robots currently can't. However, humans are bad at recognizing patterns at a macro level without actually number crunching, you know, relying on machines to get some statistical analysis. I'm surprised a man of calculus is heckling a man who relies on data and cold hard numbers. Unless your system is, as final siren thinks, purely you sitting on the couch, there has to be some statistical basis for your system. In fact, given your lists about injury and umpiring influences and their statistical weightings, surely there is.
I like this thread. I liked yours. Both have limitations, final siren knows the limitations of the squiggle, do you know the limitations of your model?
Poor lil fella.
I will continue to make money on Fremantle for the rest of the year while you have to watch the Eagles play in a Grand Final.
Good luck.
Roby flicked the bean.Don't you have your own thread to talk about these kind of things?
His thread was locked because his ultimate troll was eventually up and his last rants turned personal.FFS, everyone loves this thread and the squiggle. Why is this guy so salty? If you don't like it, and you've said your piece then stop being such an attention whore.
Robert the 3th!Might be time for me to change my username to avoid being confused with Roby.
Roby for sure.Robert the 3th!
Who has a bigger ego Roby or Jimbob Hird?!