2015 - AFL Round 22

[Zealbee]

Only paying $1.33. I've gone Nm/Wb into ade/Wc both to score 70, $1.89

Bigger stake at a lower price for me, I wanted more certainty.

 

[Sketi]

I don't understand how the dogs are $2 , surely they will bounce back from that defeat against the eagles whilst getting Murphy and Picken back.

Perth trip a factor maybe? Hard game to tip, I rate North higher overall but Dogs at Etihad is an entirely different equation.

North go alright there too though, and might have more legs than the Dogs after travelling. I'd say it's about 55/45 Norths way.

 

[theomanos24]

Geelong
Gws
Hawthron
Dogs
Port
Richmond
West coast
Sydney
Freo

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Tempted to chuck some money on us at $2.40

 

[chrisdon16]

Pies/Cats - under 184.5

 

[jaymasha]

Do they go any lower than 16.5 behinds?

These are the lines on crown bet mate

 

[willk]

Have you covered for if scores are level at quarter time but team A leads for the rest of the match?

Even if it were a draw at the end of the first quarter, the G win (Not lead at every break) or the C win (not lead at every break) would have to pay out. Unless of course the match is a tie. But you play the odds on this.

 

[chrisdon16]

View attachment 166209
These are the lines on crown bet mate

Under 14.5 behind paying $3.10?! Hawks have scored less than 14 in 7 out of the last 8 games

 

[Jugada]

Even if it were a draw at the end of the first quarter, the G win (Not lead at every break) or the C win (not lead at every break) would have to pay out. Unless of course the match is a tie. But you play the odds on this.

Yeah but wouldnt you still lose money?

 

[Mazza12346]

Under 14.5 behind paying $3.10?! Hawks have scored less than 14 in 7 out of the last 8 games

Beware game is at launceston , the weather is generally shocking

 

[chrisdon16]

Beware game is at launceston , the weather is generally shocking

Sunny weather forecast. All 3 games @ Aurora have gone under 14.

 

[willk]

Yeah but wouldnt you still lose money?

I guess it is playing the odds here. Just have to hope that the leader at the 2nd or 3rd quarter goes on to lose the game. Good Pickup, might have to add this factor in!

 

[Jugada]

There is no outcome other than a match tie where money can be lost. Worst case scenario is breakeven.

Can you write out an example here for this Friday nights match? I cant open the other picture

 

[Jugada]

I guess it is playing the odds here. Just have to hope that the leader at the 2nd or 3rd quarter goes on to lose the game. Good Pickup, might have to add this factor in!

Yeah i mean for a bet to be RISK FREE it cant have any little possible loopholes where you could lose though. I do like the thought process behind it still

 

[jaymasha]

Sunny weather forecast. All 3 games @ Aurora have gone under 14.

Usually pretty windy too. But at $3.10, I'll put 0.5u on

 

[Sausage Legs]

Coasters-Crows over 189.

 

[willk]

Yeah i mean for a bet to be RISK FREE it cant have any little possible loopholes where you could lose though. I do like the thought process behind it still

Here is the updated model. The stake amount can be modified to change the win amounts, but here is an example where money MUST be made (Unless the match is a tie, where 50% odds are paid out on the win)

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Here is the updated model. The stake amount can be modified to change the win amounts, but here is an example where money MUST be made (Unless the match is a tie, where 50% odds are paid out on the win)

Put 0.50c - $1 on the draw @ $51 in the Big Win/Little Win markets

Get half your stake back on H2H's, CB on QT leaders = profit on all bets?

 

[nooblet]

+1 for actually calculating something instead of saying LOL SITUATIONS

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

me? nooblet

 

[nooblet]

no

 

[DerpWerls]

0.5U Hawthorn Q4 33+ @ $4.80
0.5U Richmond Q4 33+ @ $10

Richmond +47 and +39 in Q4 last 2 weeks at the MCG.
Brisbane -38 last week in Q4.

Long shots but Brisbane and Essendon both teams that could drop their heads a bit with only a couple of weeks to go.

0.25U Dogs/Brisbane High/Low Double @ $71

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Essendon under 71.5 - In richmond's last 3 wins they have only conceded 56 v Collingwood , 55 v GC and 53 vs Hawthorn
Brisbane under 60.5 - Brisbane can barely score over 50

@ $3.53 for $60

 

[willk]

Sorry to spam the thread, but I have revised and further revised my model. This now GUARANTEES a PROFIT (Unless the result and the end of every quarter is a tie and the match is a tie **Never occurred in an AFL match EVER**)

The gains are minor for some outcomes, but a $3 profit is a $3 profit without risk. Using 2 accounts this can be pulled off. Using the "Lead at any quarter

If anyone spots anything wrong with it, let me know. Otherwise, Happy Betting!!

 

[Hawkies]

Bigger stake at a lower price for me, I wanted more certainty.

Ditto. You compound 1.3 over 23 rounds, and you have a 420x gain on your initial outlay