When will the AFL see a return on their investment on GWS and Gold Coast?

[Walshawk]

I get what you’re saying but as Sydney’s population keeps growing, both clubs are eventually going to get bigger crowds and more members, it’s inevitable.

The only way they won’t is if they put more teams in Sydney. Sydney isn’t Melbourne, and even some Melbourne clubs struggle to get good crowds i.e. Dogs v Port game, most Norf games.

If they stick with two Sydney teams, they should be fine long term. Developing a local rivalry is a good idea.

As for Gold Coast, it’s one team in a market all to itself. There’s only upside. In time, they should check out okay, it’s the lack of success on field that has ****ed Gold Coast sporting codes in the past.

I do agree about Tasmania. For too long they have been denied, as were Canberra in the 80s and 90s too, I believe.

Definitely not inevitable. Most of the population growth is immigration from places that have no interest in AFL - Asia, UK, middle East and Africa. Soccer is the winner there.

 

[Prince Imperial]

Definitely not inevitable. Most of the population growth is immigration from places that have no interest in AFL - Asia, UK, middle East and Africa. Soccer is the winner there.

Indeed. Further, Sydney's ultra high property prices have for a long time now led to significant number of existing locals (many being Anglo/Europeans who might be more conducive to the sport) leaving the city for Queensland and regional NSW.

The task of the Giants finding fans in Sydney isn't going to get much easier.

 

[The Educator]

Indeed. Further, Sydney's ultra high property prices have for a long time now led to significant number of existing locals (many being Anglo/Europeans who might be more conducive to the sport) leaving the city for Queensland and regional NSW.

The task of the Giants finding fans in Sydney isn't going to get much easier.

Who "might be"

I would suggest this analysis is pretty shallow.

Firstly, it is far from all of these "existing locals.'

Secondly, the AFL has had much better success in wealthier demographics (i.e. through the Swans) anyway

Thirdly, it only needs a subset of these people.

Fourthly, this seems a far bigger threat to the AFL's biggest competitor and chip leader in Sydney, that still has most of its clubs based there.

People struggle to grasp that ultimately it is just about continuing to turn-up. However flat the numbers have been, particularly post Covid, the energy and the involvement of the crowd is clearly far ahead of what it was 10 years ago. That's because a decent number of the people have made a decade of emotional investments into the club. In 10 years that will be 20 years of investments. There will also be a metro line running passed the ground and another decade of kids being visited at schools and hundreds of families connected to the club through academies.

The Giants will be fine in a large part because they are guaranteed to still exist there

 

[Prince Imperial]

Who "might be"

I don't think its a wild call to suggest that it will be easier to attract interest from these groups rather than the largely Asian immigrants who are moving into Western Sydney in large numbers.

Firstly, it is far from all of these "existing locals.'

I didn't say it was.

Secondly, the AFL has had much better success in wealthier demographics (i.e. through the Swans) anyway

This is true and whilst it is also true that whilst not of all of Western Sydney is poor, this factor isn't helping the Giants.

Fourthly, this seems a far bigger threat to the AFL's biggest competitor and chip leader in Sydney, that still has most of its clubs based there.

Perhaps, but many of these folks are moving to areas which are RL heartland and are still following their teams. RL crowds and subscription TV ratings are booming.

People struggle to grasp that ultimately it is just about continuing to turn-up. However flat the numbers have been, particularly post Covid, the energy and the involvement of the crowd is clearly far ahead of what it was 10 years ago. That's because a decent number of the people have made a decade of emotional investments into the club. In 10 years that will be 20 years of investments. There will also be a metro line running passed the ground and another decade of kids being visited at schools and hundreds of families connected to the club through academies.

The Giants will be fine in a large part because they are guaranteed to still exist there

I don't think anything is guaranteed. The AFL and the clubs are going to want to see substantial progress in the next decade or serious questions about the venture will be asked.

 

[The Educator]

I don't think its a wild call to suggest that it will be easier to attract interest from these groups rather than the largely Asian immigrants who are moving into Western Sydney in large numbers.

I think it is debatable at least that working class league heads are any more likely to convert to AFL fans than 2nd gen asian immigrants in Sydney

I didn't say it was.

But the fact it isn't highlights the weakness in your point

This is true and whilst it is also true that whilst not of all of Western Sydney is poor, this factor isn't helping the Giants.

The Roy Morgan polls have the Giants ahead of North Melbourne, Some of these fans are in Canberra and elsewhere but clearly it is making some headway in Sydney. My bet is that they are disproportionately in the inner west and the hills districts

Perhaps, but many of these folks are moving to areas which are RL heartland and are still following their teams. RL crowds and subscription TV ratings are booming.

More than perhaps. Huge vulnerability having Sydney hollow out of NRL fans in addition to evaporating participation rates and vulnerable income sources.

Meanwhile the Giants are backed by a far more sustainable cost model and long view strategy.

I don't think anything is guaranteed.

The Giants in Sydney pretty much are.

The AFL and the clubs are going to want to see substantial progress in the next decade or serious questions about the venture will be asked.

#seriousquesions

It is the fact they are guaranteed, along with the engagement strategy, that they will continue to grow over the long arch.

In 10 years the Giants will be playing their 22nd season. There will be people who were visited in primary school that will be taking their kids to games. Likewise there will be parents who went through the academy doing likewise.

 

[Coolangatta]

I don't think anything is guaranteed. The AFL and the clubs are going to want to see substantial progress in the next decade or serious questions about the venture will be asked.

The Giants aren’t going anywhere. Sydney doesn’t have nine teams like Melbourne, just two. If anything, the AFL will ask serious questions about any Victorian club that can’t pull good crowds despite being around forever.

 

[Prince Imperial]

I think it is debatable at least that working class league heads are any more likely to convert to AFL fans than 2nd gen asian immigrants in Sydney

True, but there are a fair number of middle class people in Western Sydney especially in the Hills. They are more likely to become AFL fans than that group which we would both agree with. The evidence even from today is that a sizeable number of people are leaving NSW for Qld. My point is that a fair number of them will be from demographics that are more favourable for the AFL.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/state-aussies-are-leaving-and-where-theyre-moving-to/news-story/99641cb197cd50645cd182467ada34c

The Roy Morgan polls have the Giants ahead of North Melbourne, Some of these fans are in Canberra and elsewhere but clearly it is making some headway in Sydney. My bet is that they are disproportionately in the inner west and the hills districts

They also have Sydney way ahead of Collingwood, West Coast, Essendon etc. "Support" is a very loose concept especially in markets where the sport is not the most popular and we should be cautious about using this survey as a comparison. Attendances and TV ratings in the home market are better measures. These are dire for the Giants.

More than perhaps. Huge vulnerability having Sydney hollow out of NRL fans in addition to evaporating participation rates and vulnerable income sources.

Meanwhile the Giants are backed by a far more sustainable cost model and long view strategy.

The NRL and its Sydney clubs are growing their attendances and pay TV ratings so much that even the Giants are talking about them getting stronger. There is some vulnerability about poker machine profits but the NSW poker machine lobby is very powerful. Pasifika immigration into WS is very much aiding their participation numbers and fan base as well.

It is the fact they are guaranteed, along with the engagement strategy, that they will continue to grow over the long arch.

In 10 years the Giants will be playing their 22nd season. There will be people who were visited in primary school that will be taking their kids to games. Likewise there will be parents who went through the academy doing likewise.

I've lived in Sydney and country NSW for three years of my life and very much hope for the sport to do well there. I hope you are right.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I find this "non-whites won't follow footy" angle weird. I've got plenty of non-white mates who follow AFL.

People are saying that newly arrived immigrants won't follow footy, but the Giants aren't targeting them. They're targeting their kids. Pumping Auskick into schools, giving away free tickets, introducing footy culture early on. From what I've seen, they're also working hard to integrate into multicultural events as well.

Greater Western Sydney is absolutely huge. The Giants don't need to convert everybody, but there's more than enough people than can be converted for the Giants to be successful.

 

[Coolangatta]

I find this "non-whites won't follow footy" angle weird. I've got plenty of non-white mates who follow AFL.

People are saying that newly arrived immigrants won't follow footy, but the Giants aren't targeting them. They're targeting their kids. Pumping Auskick into schools, giving away free tickets, introducing footy culture early on. From what I've seen, they're also working hard to integrate into multicultural events as well.

Greater Western Sydney is absolutely huge. The Giants don't need to convert everybody, but there's more than enough people than can be converted for the Giants to be successful.

Spot on.

I mean sure, a good argument could’ve been made that Tasmania and Canberra should have been teams 17 and 18, even as far back as the 80s.

Even if they were already included, Western Sydney and the Gold Coast would’ve been ideal targets for expanding to 20 teams.

 

[The Educator]

True, but there are a fair number of middle class people in Western Sydney especially in the Hills. They are more likely to become AFL fans than that group which we would both agree with. The evidence even from today is that a sizeable number of people are leaving NSW for Qld. My point is that a fair number of them will be from demographics that are more favourable for the AFL.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/state-aussies-are-leaving-and-where-theyre-moving-to/news-story/99641cb197cd50645cd182467ada34c

The net migration from NSW to Queensland would at most have been 15,000 last year. That's less than 0.2% of its population. Historically net interstate migration from NSW has been around 10 to 20K a year (i.e. this century, ore pandemic).

There's also no demographic information in that release.

So in addition to not knowing what share of that migration that might be people who were originally international migrants, we do know that the migration to Queensland skews old....

Where are people moving to, and from, in Australia? Find out with our census data interactive

They also have Sydney way ahead of Collingwood, West Coast, Essendon etc. "Support" is a very loose concept especially in markets where the sport is not the most popular and we should be cautious about using this survey as a comparison. Attendances and TV ratings in the home market are better measures. These are dire for the Giants.

That effect is obviously going to be far less for the second team in a city. This is pretty obviously supported by the very fact that the Swans come out on top.

And the Giants FTA numbers in Sydney are hardly any more "dire" than the Storm in Melbourne (when up against the AFL) despite all the advantages of the latter.

The NRL and its Sydney clubs are growing their attendances and pay TV ratings so much that even the Giants are talking about them getting stronger.

The NRL is having somewhat of positive phase. I've also seen Eels crowds at that new stadium less than a third full announced at over 20,000.

And you seem like a smart guy generally. You are surely aware that there is a persistent strategy of the northern teams, and particularly the Sydney ones, to shake the cage to get the AFL to commit more to the growth of the game there. There is also a persistent strategy to ingratiate the League market

The fact that "even" the Giants are saying is a ridiculous appeal to authority.

There is some vulnerability about poker machine profits but the NSW poker machine lobby is very powerful. Pasifika immigration into WS is very much aiding their participation numbers and fan base as well.

The recent state election highlighted that the NSW gaming lobby is no longer more powerful than community sentiment. It isn't just a vulnerability. It is pretty much inevitable the underpinning of pro rugby league clubs by massive pokies will either be a thing of the past or a massive reputational drag at best.

There were 90,000 pacifika descendant people (including maori) in NSW in 2015 from a quick dig....

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4901&context=sspapers

And it's growing but hardly at a rate that will overcome the impact of the massive dive in participation by the other 98% of the population

Pacific Islanders in Australia: 2021 census results - Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre

Huiyuan Liu and Stephen Howes analyse the 2021 Australia census results, and count twice as many people of Pacific heritage than in 2006.

devpolicy.org

And obviously the Giants can grow substantially without the NRL declining at all. I was initially just making the point that outward migration of traditional working class Sydney folk would hurt league far more than the AFL's ambitions.

I've lived in Sydney and country NSW for three years of my life and very much hope for the sport to do well there. I hope you are right.

I'm sure you do. Certainly not suggesting otherwise (unlike the dude liking your comments).

My case is clearly not relying on a "best game in da world" presumption.

 

[The Educator]

I find this "non-whites won't follow footy" angle weird. I've got plenty of non-white mates who follow AFL.

People are saying that newly arrived immigrants won't follow footy, but the Giants aren't targeting them. They're targeting their kids. Pumping Auskick into schools, giving away free tickets, introducing footy culture early on. From what I've seen, they're also working hard to integrate into multicultural events as well.

Greater Western Sydney is absolutely huge. The Giants don't need to convert everybody, but there's more than enough people than can be converted for the Giants to be successful.

Ironically, of all the hard core Sydney born Swans fans I have met, perhaps half of them are asian.

 

[Bjo187]

I find this "non-whites won't follow footy" angle weird. I've got plenty of non-white mates who follow AFL.

People are saying that newly arrived immigrants won't follow footy, but the Giants aren't targeting them. They're targeting their kids. Pumping Auskick into schools, giving away free tickets, introducing footy culture early on. From what I've seen, they're also working hard to integrate into multicultural events as well.

Greater Western Sydney is absolutely huge. The Giants don't need to convert everybody, but there's more than enough people than can be converted for the Giants to be successful.

If you are going to appeal to non whites in a multicultural area like western sydney, you need to have a few players on the list from those diverse backgrounds.

It's always staggered me that gws run an annual iftar dinner, yet have never had a Muslim player on the list. Plus Blacktown has close to Australia's highest indigenous population, yet gws have barely had any aboriginal players during their existence.

I spoke to Adrian Caruso about this recently, there are a few quality players out there that could even be player 41 and 42 on the list, that would help with that community connection a lot better that some country aussie bloke originally from southern nsw visiting an Islamic school to talk about footy (as an example).

 

[Canberra Pear]

If you are going to appeal to non whites in a multicultural area like western sydney, you need to have a few players on the list from those diverse backgrounds.

It's always staggered me that gws run an annual iftar dinner, yet have never had a Muslim player on the list. Plus Blacktown has close to Australia's highest indigenous population, yet gws have barely had any aboriginal players during their existence.

I spoke to Adrian Caruso about this recently, there are a few quality players out there that could even be player 41 and 42 on the list, that would help with that community connection a lot better that some country aussie bloke originally from southern nsw visiting an Islamic school to talk about footy (as an example).

I'd always though the NT academy would've been a good fit for GWS to boost their indigenous players. Might work well down the track if Gold Coast can keep growing Queensland participation.

It'd be great to seem more diversity at the Giants to match their community, but I think a lot of that will have to come from homegrown talent. I know the Bachar Houli Foundation does a lot with the Giants, hopefully that'd yield results down the track.

I like the idea of a few fringe players just to help with the community connection until they can build up AFL level players. That's similar to what Port did with Chen Shaoliang. I don't think he even debuted in the AFL, but he did a lot of community work.

 

[Bjo187]

I'd always though the NT academy would've been a good fit for GWS to boost their indigenous players. Might work well down the track if Gold Coast can keep growing Queensland participation.

Funny you mention that, I suggested the exact same thing to the person that basically runs the club just last week and he liked the idea.

The only problem is, the suns winning in the n.t might tighten the bond more.

In saying that though, I don't see why the academy and where you play games has to match up anyway, 90 percent of fans in those areas would have no idea about their n.t academy ties to the suns.

The funny thing is, the giants have a very white Anglo list in a diverse area and gold coast have a very diverse list in a very Anglo area. To a degree, it shows the AFL's misunderstanding of the situation.

 

[The Educator]

The Suns were given the NT at their nadir and are a northern club. The Giants, certainly short of the introduction of a Canberra team, are a much better fit for the ACT and riverina. The number of non-white players is a distant consideration

What I would suggest, and this is particularly enabled when Tasmania comes in, is that the Darwin and Canberra games should be "home games" of Victorian clubs.

Have the 5 smaller Melbourne clubs rotate through those places preferably and build it into the funding model. Or even have all the Victorian clubs playing home games in those places.

It is not Eddie Maguire's crazy model but it would increase the presence in their home cities while giving up low drawing Victorian games.

 

[Prince Imperial]

The NRL is having somewhat of positive phase. I've also seen Eels crowds at that new stadium less than a third full announced at over 20,000.

A 25% increase in average crowds for a mature competition in one year is more than somewhat of a positive phase I would have thought. Two new high quality stadiums recently gifted to the NRL in Sydney and a third is on the way. There's been a decline in tackle numbers but overall they are doing very well. Not that I think this will prevent the growth of AF in Sydney but it will make it a wee bit harder.

I have to laugh at questioning the Eels published crowds compared to what they look like whilst at the same time vigorously defending the Giants and not questioning their published attendances. Yes, I know more of the Giants fans are on the camera side.

Speaking of crowds, tomorrow will be another interesting test. It will be a beautiful day weatherwise. The Giants are favourites with stars returning and they have had good form in the last 3 weeks. Free tickets are readily available for any adult (as they have been for all their Sydney games this year).

https://www.promotix.com.au/event/dROyG8LuS

 

[Engimal v3]

The afl's big brain idea is purely based on the numbers without looking into actual demographics.

tasmania is an actual football state and despite having the same population as wollongong, people are passionate about it and live and breathe footy still.

the fact that the gutless afl has chosen to * over an actual football state in perpetuity while slinging cash around like a qantas exec at a gold coast strip club is embarrassing.

A Tasmanian team doesn't grow the game. Gold Coast and GWS do.

 

[Coolangatta]

The Suns were given the NT at their nadir and are a northern club. The Giants, certainly short of the introduction of a Canberra team, are a much better fit for the ACT and riverina. The number of non-white players is a distant consideration

What I would suggest, and this is particularly enabled when Tasmania comes in, is that the Darwin and Canberra games should be "home games" of Victorian clubs.

Have the 5 smaller Melbourne clubs rotate through those places preferably and build it into the funding model. Or even have all the Victorian clubs playing home games in those places.

It is not Eddie Maguire's crazy model but it would increase the presence in their home cities while giving up low drawing Victorian games.

I like it but the Giants are playing 3 games in Canberra up until 2032. They could easily increase Darwin’s number of games if Tassie come in to 4 a year, with Alice Springs getting 2 a year, then give Canberra their own team in 2033.

They should also look at North Queensland, see if they can get 2 games a year in Cairns and 1 each in Townsville and Mackay.

 

[Engimal v3]

The Suns were given the NT at their nadir and are a northern club. The Giants, certainly short of the introduction of a Canberra team, are a much better fit for the ACT and riverina. The number of non-white players is a distant consideration

What I would suggest, and this is particularly enabled when Tasmania comes in, is that the Darwin and Canberra games should be "home games" of Victorian clubs.

Have the 5 smaller Melbourne clubs rotate through those places preferably and build it into the funding model. Or even have all the Victorian clubs playing home games in those places.

It is not Eddie Maguire's crazy model but it would increase the presence in their home cities while giving up low drawing Victorian games.

And what of the Victorian members of these clubs who have just lost value in their memberships by losing home games in Melbourne?

 

[Coolangatta]

And what of the Victorian members of these clubs who have just lost value in their memberships by losing home games in Melbourne?

That’s a decent point and why I’ve suggested on here before an extra top end round.

Have all clubs play up north one round, double headers in Darwin, Cairns, Townsville, Alice Springs, and Mackay. That would require a 20th team which I think should be Canberra but it’s one of my better ideas, if I may say.

I’ve had some Eddie level ones that um, never mind…

 

[Prince Imperial]

If you are going to appeal to non whites in a multicultural area like western sydney, you need to have a few players on the list from those diverse backgrounds.

It's always staggered me that gws run an annual iftar dinner, yet have never had a Muslim player on the list. Plus Blacktown has close to Australia's highest indigenous population, yet gws have barely had any aboriginal players during their existence.

I spoke to Adrian Caruso about this recently, there are a few quality players out there that could even be player 41 and 42 on the list, that would help with that community connection a lot better that some country aussie bloke originally from southern nsw visiting an Islamic school to talk about footy (as an example).

They have recruited Bedford but they have been unlucky with four indigenous players (Hill, Finlayson, Wilson and Williams) leaving and now on other club's lists. They would want more but its just a small factor in recruitment and other clubs like mine from 2017-20 didn't have any so they are not the lone rangers.

They have a Muslim AFLW player but Saad is the only Muslim as far I know on AFL lists. Gulden maybe due to his Turkish background but I'm not sure. Ultimately, list spots are at a premium for all clubs.

 

[Billy ray]

And what of the Victorian members of these clubs who have just lost value in their memberships by losing home games in Melbourne?

this is what i dislike about selling games up there too from a member point of view
we are down to 9 games at Carrara and although we can go to 1 at gabba when away to brisbane, we have to jump on a plane to see any more 'live' games.
at least for melbourne teams, you have multiple away games within melbourne at marvel and the G, so your membership could cater for entry as an away member (and you dont have to get in a plane)

 

[Engimal v3]

this is what i dislike about selling games up there too from a member point of view
we are down to 9 games at Carrara and although we can go to 1 at gabba when away to brisbane, we have to jump on a plane to see any more 'live' games.
at least for melbourne teams, you have multiple away games within melbourne at marvel and the G, so your membership could cater for entry as an away member (and you dont have to get in a plane)

North do that already for the games we sell to Tassie. The replacement games suck though - you always end up sitting in a worse spot than you would have for a North home game.

 

[The Educator]

A 25% increase in average crowds for a mature competition in one year is more than somewhat of a positive phase I would have thought. Two new high quality stadiums recently gifted to the NRL in Sydney and a third is on the way. There's been a decline in tackle numbers but overall they are doing very well. Not that I think this will prevent the growth of AF in Sydney but it will make it a wee bit harder.

New stadiums in the same spot as older stadiums has little to no impact on attendance. We can already see this with the Eels. More broadly, the NRL are having a post covid uplift like the AFL in Melbourne but off a much lower base. Let's not confuse that with a multi-generational trend.

I have to laugh at questioning the Eels published crowds compared to what they look like whilst at the same time vigorously defending the Giants and not questioning their published attendances. Yes, I know more of the Giants fans are on the camera side.

I am not sure why you "had to laugh".

The Giants attendance numbers are no doubt "inflated". But the Eels are one of the big NRL clubs in a brand new stadium egregiously inflating numbers.

Speaking of crowds, tomorrow will be another interesting test. It will be a beautiful day weatherwise. The Giants are favourites with stars returning and they have had good form in the last 3 weeks. Free tickets are readily available for any adult (as they have been for all their Sydney games this year).

https://www.promotix.com.au/event/dROyG8LuS

The Giants are a bottom six team. They aren't going to have any rapid improvement in their off field support without actual on-field success. They are playing Fremantle who will bring few fans.

There will probably be an increase in Giants fans and a reduction in the overall crowd figure which will be inflated.

It will get Giants obsessed league and soccer nutters excited but it will be meaningless to whether or not the Giants will be a success in Sydney in 10, 20 or 50 years.

But you know all this.

 

[The Educator]

And what of the Victorian members of these clubs who have just lost value in their memberships by losing home games in Melbourne?

Currently your team sells 3 games to Tasmania, Hawthorn 4, Melbourne one to the NT etc. North's Melbourne fans could actually be better off even if they played both teams in the Territories each year compared to now.

Also, as now, they would use "home game replacements" to ensure all clubs can still sell 11 games home memberships......

North do that already for the games we sell to Tassie. The replacement games suck though - you always end up sitting in a worse spot than you would have for a North home game.

Really? Booh hoo, seriously. This is 3AW levels poor-me Victorian stuff