2013 vs 2014 A statistical analysis

[Some Idiot]

I have NEVER said he is no good.

I have said I'm very concerned about his size and that would stand for any player his size in today's footy so that's not directed at him. Footy is getting bigger not smaller as I continue to say and see.

And how do people know he had a good footy brain and nous?? What do u see that I don't? I see vision that lot of players have, I simply don't see anything that special. Do you see it or just read it in the clubs bios ?? He is good but he ain't great in my eyes. He ain't Libba and as I've always said you cannot play him and Libba in same midfield IN TODAYS football. 20 years ago it worked coz mids were smaller but not today.

But reagardlesx my issue is we need KPS and have to give something to get some and he it's he name I pick, others disagree but that's what I think and I wouldn't blink an eye if they traded him for Reid coz even if it backfired at least we tried something

You know Libba is 6 foot tall right?

 

[timtamWB]

I have NEVER said he is no good.

I have said I'm very concerned about his size and that would stand for any player his size in today's footy so that's not directed at him. Footy is getting bigger not smaller as I continue to say and see.

And how do people know he had a good footy brain and nous?? What do u see that I don't? I see vision that lot of players have, I simply don't see anything that special. Do you see it or just read it in the clubs bios ?? He is good but he ain't great in my eyes. He ain't Libba and as I've always said you cannot play him and Libba in same midfield IN TODAYS football. 20 years ago it worked coz mids were smaller but not today.

But reagardlesx my issue is we need KPS and have to give something to get some and he it's he name I pick, others disagree but that's what I think and I wouldn't blink an eye if they traded him for Reid coz even if it backfired at least we tried something

You can just see that he has a good footy brain, so many times before he has the first option, but in that split second assesses the situation and doesn't give it off because he can see it will lead to trouble. He props and waits for a far better option, which is instinctive and something you can't teach.

And as for you saying that you're concerned about his size, they keep saying this. But then you get guys like Prestia, McGlynn, Harvey, Rioli, Smith and the like that keep coming in and playing well. Guys like Taylor and Hrovat slide down the draft order because they're shorter, and then they come in and play very good footy, making people look like idiots for passing on them.

What does Libba have to do with anything? Him and Hrovat are different sizes, with Libba 181 cm, and also completely different types of players. Libba is a Sewell (but better), Hrovat is a Mitchell.

 

[Mattdougie]

You can just see that he has a good footy brain, so many times before he has the first option, but in that split second assesses the situation and doesn't give it off because he can see it will lead to trouble. He props and waits for a far better option, which is instinctive and something you can't teach.

And as for you saying that you're concerned about his size, they keep saying this. But then you get guys like Prestia, McGlynn, Harvey, Rioli, Smith and the like that keep coming in and playing well. Guys like Taylor and Hrovat slide down the draft order because they're shorter, and then they come in and play very good footy, making people look like idiots for passing on them.

What does Libba have to do with anything? Him and Hrovat are different sizes, with Libba 181 cm, and also completely different types of players. Libba is a Sewell (but better), Hrovat is a Mitchell.

Mate that's what you see and that's great I hope your right

I don't see it, hopefully next year I will but as I said if it was up to me I wouldn't coz he would be traded to get a kp

 

[Butane]

We had such a good thread going on here comparing stats for a couple of posts.

 

[ThirdLegUp]

Very intresting Stats, and Fronk summed it up perfectly. i can only conclude, for mine at any rate. 2015 is the dawning of a new bulldog era. 2014 must be remembered as the passing of the flame.

What i also conclude is that we would have done the time honoured tradition of dropping of next year had this year not taken place. Was this year a blessing for macca?... think on it.

if we had not experienced the form drop of our senior men, we would have no doubt won many if not all the close games. perhaps even challanged for the 8... but make no mistake, when the old fellas dropped of next year, and everyone has even bigger expectations, it would be panic stations eveywhere because we would essentially have a season like this one, but instead of season as stagnant, it would be a massive backward step. I can't help thinking Macca just dodged a massive bullet!

 

[Mattdougie]

We had such a good thread going on here comparing stats for a couple of posts.

Apologies butane .)

 

[Mattdougie]

I think these stats all add up to one thing

We see drastic improvement next year or we will have a new coach 2016

 

[ivan rassmussen]

Because I've got a spreadsheet of average games played I'm going to post them. Please draw your own conclusions.

Bulldogs 2013:
Average games played per player: 75.8
Opposition games played per player: 76.8
AFL Average: 79.7

Bulldogs 2014:
Average games played per player: 86.5
Opposition games played per player: 82.8
AFL Average: 83.9

The only team we beat this year that had an average games played per player more than us was StKilda. Now there is a listed that is ******.

Our wins:
Gold Coast: 48.1 - Bulldogs: 62.2
GWS: 44.4 - Bulldogs: 96.2
Melbourne: 73.2 - Bulldogs: 96.1
Collingwood: 73.7 - Bulldogs: 89.9
Melbourne: 59 - Bulldogs: 66.5
Richmond: 81.7 - Bulldogs: 98.5
StKilda - 97.3 - Bulldogs: 82.5

Should probably add that the team with higher average games played won 67.6% of the time. The bookies(they're all the same these days) picked the winner 71% of the time. So it's a good indicator despite it clearly having it's flaws.


Stats using footywire.com - who are s**t and don't count games played during the season but at least they are consistent across all teams.

I'll hopefully get around to working out the medians too so we can dissect that information.

So Butane our players had more experience, but we scored less for, and were scored more heavily against, based on yours and Cyclop's stats. But to correlate with the part I've bolded, presumably we had significantly less games played on avge in our losses then?

 

[Next Waiting]

Very intresting Stats, and Fronk summed it up perfectly. i can only conclude, for mine at any rate. 2015 is the dawning of a new bulldog era. 2014 must be remembered as the passing of the flame.

What i also conclude is that we would have done the time honoured tradition of dropping of next year had this year not taken place. Was this year a blessing for macca?... think on it.

if we had not experienced the form drop of our senior men, we would have no doubt won many if not all the close games. perhaps even challanged for the 8... but make no mistake, when the old fellas dropped of next year, and everyone has even bigger expectations, it would be panic stations eveywhere because we would essentially have a season like this one, but instead of season as stagnant, it would be a massive backward step. I can't help thinking Macca just dodged a massive bullet!

I can't help thinking he spotted the assassin setting up his tripod on the grassy knoll while traffic management were still putting the cones out for the motorcade due in 3 hours time.

 

[ThirdLegUp]

I can't help thinking he spotted the assassin setting up his tripod on the grassy knoll while traffic management were still putting the cones out for the motorcade due in 3 hours time.

perhaps, he knows good people, so only stands to reason he would spot a 'bad people' from a mile away...

 

[Butane]

So Butane our players had more experience, but we scored less for, and were scored more heavily against, based on yours and Cyclop's stats. But to correlate with the part I've bolded, presumably we had significantly less games played on avge in our losses then?

I'm not sure if I'm following but hopefully this table helps.

Both Essendon games were good as was the game against Geelong. Lowlights were losing to Brisbane and GWS in Victoria.

The lose to GWS with a differential of 47.6 was the biggest difference for a home team losing in 2014. In fact it's the 2nd biggest difference for a losing home team since at least 2010. (North rolling Saints in '11 the biggest with 49.7 dif - and that wasn't an interstate game so Dogs loss still worst in my opinion - that's in 800+games of AFL)

The Second biggest in 2014 was North losing to GC with a difference of 38.9 and third was Collingwood losing to Brisbane with a difference of 30.2.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

I'm not sure if I'm following but hopefully this table helps.

Both Essendon games were good as was the game against Geelong. Lowlights were losing to Brisbane and GWS in Victoria.

The lose to GWS with a differential of 47.6 was the biggest difference for a home team losing in 2014. In fact it's the 2nd biggest difference for a losing home team since at least 2010. (North rolling Saints in '11 the biggest with 49.7 dif - and that wasn't an interstate game so Dogs loss still worst in my opinion - that's in 800+games of AFL)

The Second biggest in 2014 was North losing to GC with a difference of 38.9 and third was Collingwood losing to Brisbane with a difference of 30.2.

Yes, that sounds right, so of our 15 losses, 10 (or 66.6%) were to teams with greater average games played, which is close enough to your 67.6% figure, thanks. So statistically, the advantage is to have a greater average games played than your opponent, giving you a 2 in 3 chance of winning, based on historical data.

 

[Butane]

Yes, that sounds right, so of our 15 losses, 10 (or 66.6%) were to teams with greater average games played, which is close enough to your 67.6% figure, thanks. So statistically, the advantage is to have a greater average games played than your opponent, giving you a 2 in 3 chance of winning, based on historical data.

That seems to be the key. You'd also want a median of around 100 and stand dev of between 50-80. These are the numbers that Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney have got to in their premiership winning years. I believe we are aiming for that(I believe all clubs are) but it only works if you've got the cattle. Something else those 3 teams have too - they all trade for A grade players(not c grade) and they all have off-field money.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

That seems to be the key. You'd also want a median of around 100 and stand dev of between 50-80. These are the numbers that Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney have got to in their premiership winning years. I believe we are aiming for that(I believe all clubs are) but it only works if you've got the cattle. Something else those 3 teams have too - they all trade for A grade players(not c grade) and they all have off-field money.

So if I read between the lines, I would call Crameri A grade, but Casboult et al as B graders, being generous. Who would you suggest are A graders we could realistically target? I think Jaksch could become an A grader, and if we could prize a Carlisle or Hoskin-Elliott out, they fit the criteria as well - but the price (in draft picks) would preclude us from drafting more A graders ourselves. Maybe Sam Reid. We need to identify young players at other clubs who can become A graders - in competition with everyone else.

 

[Butane]

So if I read between the lines, I would call Crameri A grade, but Casboult et al as B graders, being generous. Who would you suggest are A graders we could realistically target? I think Jaksch could become an A grader, and if we could prize a Carlisle or Hoskin-Elliott out, they fit the criteria as well - but the price (in draft picks) would preclude us from drafting more A graders ourselves. Maybe Sam Reid. We need to identify young players at other clubs who can become A graders - in competition with everyone else.

Crameri ticked all the boxes. Age, exp and quality and cheap(Do not let the media tell you 400K is a lot - if you think that's a lot some people would be enraged at what some other Bulldogs players are on)

Agreed we need to target players that will be peaking in 3 years - OR - still be close to that peak. People absolutely hate me for saying this but Frawley will be 29 in 3 years which is peak for a KPP defender and we can easily pay him the money he wants but I really don't want to turn this thread in to that discussion.

That means any 17 year KPP probably won't be ready but you still draft them whenever they are available. But it does mean we'll have to fill our gaps with either improvement from Jones and Roberts or trading. Patton would have been perfect. But I'm not really an expert on who to chase.

 

[fronkalicious]

Reid isn't A grade. No way.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

Reid isn't A grade. No way.

But could he be? He showed some glimpses early in his career, might be all he had, and is now just a good B-grader, do you think?

 

[fronkalicious]

But could he be? He showed some glimpses early in his career, might be all he had, and is now just a good B-grader, do you think?

Yep, I think a good B grader. I think he's shown us what he's got.

 

[LardDog]

We beat collingwood when they where in the 8. So does that make 2 wins against top 8 for 2014?

 

[Butane]

We beat collingwood when they where in the 8. So does that make 2 wins against top 8 for 2014?

We beat Richmond when they weren't in the 8 so it'd still be 1 win

 

[fronkalicious]

Gold Coast were in the 8 when we beat them too

 

[Chicago1]

We beat Richmond when they weren't in the 8 so it'd still be 1 win

That match seems like it happened ages ago rather than just five months ago. *sigh*

 

[Ant_]

Linked this fine thread out to twitter land. Got a favourite from Robert Shaw.

 

[Next Waiting]

The figures below are correct as of 01/09/2014.



The above also says that 30 players are 27 years or less (75% of the list) That 75% of the list accounts for 38% of the total games played by the senior list at an average of 36.7 games for each one of those players (25% of the senior list (10 players) being 28yrs or older and accounting for 62% of the total number of games played by the list at an average of 179.7 games per player).

 

[Next Waiting]