2013 vs 2014 A statistical analysis

[JJHunter]

These are the stats - and unlike many journos I wont tell you how to interrupt them - only put them out there for comment and discussion.

 

[_Mike_]

Those stats tell us that we're not going anywhere fast. Our forward structure (or lack thereof) has what cost us a few games this year IMO

 

[fronkalicious]

Those stats tell us that we're not going anywhere fast. Our forward structure (or lack thereof) has what cost us a few games this year IMO

What they don't tell us is that we produced almost an identical season, with a massive drop off in output from

Roughie
Griff
Minson
Gia
Cross
Boyd
Cooney

Stringer, Macrae, bonti, wood, hrovat and crameri filled the void.

That's why it was a minuscule step forward. The baton was very tentatively passed.

Was hard going though, and I'm pretty dirty on the lack of progression in our skills, ball movement and overall game style.

 

[dogwatch]

Excellent OP CyclopsRules and very well summed up fronkalicious .
We can't even use injuries to top 22 players as an excuse can we? I doubt they would be any worse than we experienced in 2013.

 

[TempleKelvington]

What they don't tell us is that we produced almost an identical season, with a massive drop off in output from

Roughie
Griff
Minson
Gia
Cross
Boyd
Cooney

Stringer, Macrae, bonti, wood, hrovat and crameri filled the void.

That's why it was a minuscule step forward. The baton was very tentatively passed.

Was hard going though, and I'm pretty dirty on the lack of progression in our skills, ball movement and overall game style.

Spot on.

 

[Tommycash]

A lot more quarters won, fascinating facts though. I feel like we will be able to push on.

 

[the dog's kennel]

What they don't tell us is that we produced almost an identical season, with a massive drop off in output from

Roughie
Griff
Minson
Gia
Cross
Boyd
Cooney

Stringer, Macrae, bonti, wood, hrovat and crameri filled the void.

That's why it was a minuscule step forward. The baton was very tentatively passed.

Was hard going though, and I'm pretty dirty on the lack of progression in our skills, ball movement and overall game style.

I think you are right, fronk. That is certainly the vibe I got. But in a thread like this, I don't think we should assert explanations using "the vibe". Does anyone have the time to crunch the numbers of how some players stepped down and others stepped up?

Thanks!

 

[ivan rassmussen]

From a coach's 2nd year to his 3rd, I would have hoped for improvement in a fair few of those areas. Yet, we have stagnated or gone slightly backwards as a whole (ignoring the performances of individual players), except for quarters won. Sadly, our increase in quarters won did not translate to more games won - 1 or 2 extra wins on the back of that increase wouldn't be too much to expect.

Thanks Cyclops, the stats just confirm how I feel about this season - some individual progress but not much else...

 

[Sedat!]

A lot more quarters won, fascinating facts though. I feel like we will be able to push on.

This is a definite positive, but countering this is that we've fallen asleep in a number of games and given up multiple goals in quick succession to the opposition without being able to alter the course of the game and stifle the momentum of the opposition.

 

[immortalmike]

What they don't tell us is that we produced almost an identical season, with a massive drop off in output from

Roughie
Griff
Minson
Gia
Cross
Boyd
Cooney

Stringer, Macrae, bonti, wood, hrovat and crameri filled the void.

That's why it was a minuscule step forward. The baton was very tentatively passed.

Was hard going though, and I'm pretty dirty on the lack of progression in our skills, ball movement and overall game style.

Got it in one. Perfect sum up for me. I look on to next year with interest.

 

[Mattdougie]

Hrovat filled the void???


Lol I really do find this amusing

Sorry I'm not trying to be smart but we are pumping this kid up coz we have f$ck all else to pump up.

His game yesterday AGAINST kids was rubbish and he had 3 awful turnovers and didn't hit a target on the full all day.

I know he is a kid but if this bloke is the future of the club close the bloody doors now coz we are finished


Anyway stats are stats. Doesn't say when we played teams in form or away or blah blah. We can all admit they arnt great and can hope and pray for a miracle improvement next year so I can shut up

 

[Tommycash]

This is a definite positive, but countering this is that we've fallen asleep in a number of games and given up multiple goals in quick succession to the opposition without being able to alter the course of the game and stifle the momentum of the opposition.

Bang on. The only way we are going to turn those close games into wins, or bigger wins is if we can learn to hold momentum, or halt the opponents when the momentum swings their way. Should be a fascinating season next year. Definitive in Macca's career.

 

[gimp!]

His game yesterday AGAINST kids was rubbish and he had 3 awful turnovers and didn't hit a target on the full all day.

Factually incorrect. You are wrong again.

 

[Butane]

Because I've got a spreadsheet of average games played I'm going to post them. Please draw your own conclusions.

Bulldogs 2013:
Average games played per player: 75.8
Opposition games played per player: 76.8
AFL Average: 79.7

Bulldogs 2014:
Average games played per player: 86.5
Opposition games played per player: 82.8
AFL Average: 83.9

The only team we beat this year that had an average games played per player more than us was StKilda. Now there is a listed that is ****ed.

Our wins:
Gold Coast: 48.1 - Bulldogs: 62.2
GWS: 44.4 - Bulldogs: 96.2
Melbourne: 73.2 - Bulldogs: 96.1
Collingwood: 73.7 - Bulldogs: 89.9
Melbourne: 59 - Bulldogs: 66.5
Richmond: 81.7 - Bulldogs: 98.5
StKilda - 97.3 - Bulldogs: 82.5

Should probably add that the team with higher average games played won 67.6% of the time. The bookies(they're all the same these days) picked the winner 71% of the time. So it's a good indicator despite it clearly having it's flaws.


Stats using footywire.com - who are s**t and don't count games played during the season but at least they are consistent across all teams.

I'll hopefully get around to working out the medians too so we can dissect that information.

 

[Tommycash]

Because I've got a spreadsheet of average games played I'm going to post them. Please draw your own conclusions.

Bulldogs 2013:
Average games played per player: 75.8
Opposition games played per player: 76.8
AFL Average: 79.7

Bulldogs 2014:
Average games played per player: 86.5
Opposition games played per player: 82.8
AFL Average: 83.9

The only team we beat this year that had an average games played per player more than us was StKilda. Now there is a listed that is ******.

Our wins:
Gold Coast: 48.1 - Bulldogs: 62.2
GWS: 44.4 - Bulldogs: 96.2
Melbourne: 73.2 - Bulldogs: 96.1
Collingwood: 73.7 - Bulldogs: 89.9
Melbourne: 59 - Bulldogs: 66.5
Richmond: 81.7 - Bulldogs: 98.5
StKilda - 97.3 - Bulldogs: 82.5

Should probably add that the team with higher average games played won 67.6% of the time. The bookies(they're all the same these days) picked the winner 71% of the time. So it's a good indicator despite it clearly having it's flaws.


Stats using footywire.com - who are s**t and don't count games played during the season but at least they are consistent across all teams.

I'll hopefully get around to working out the medians too so we can dissect that information.

Interestingly, our team will probably have a lower average games per player next year with Gia and Higgins gone. Boyd too will likely start being used less. If the Minson talk is true as well it will be interesting.

 

[Butane]

Interestingly, our team will probably have a lower average games per player next year with Gia and Higgins gone. Boyd too will likely start being used less. If the Minson talk is true as well it will be interesting.

The Gold Coast game in Cairns was the probably the best game for the season. No Gia, Higgins or Griffen and an average of 62.2.

Gia didn't player in the Essendon(79.1), Hawthorn(81.1) or St Kilda(82.5) games either and we still had an average of around the AFL average.

 

[stefoid]

This is a definite positive, but countering this is that we've fallen asleep in a number of games and given up multiple goals in quick succession to the opposition without being able to alter the course of the game and stifle the momentum of the opposition.

Despite the stats, the team feels younger.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Butane Do you have those stats in Median? Or the average of median/average? Average stats can be flawed because it assumes the difference in experience between a 200 and 250 gamer (a little, hardly any) is the same difference in experience as between a 1 and 51 gamer (a hell of a lot)

 

[BRWB]

Butane Do you have those stats in Median? Or the average of median/average? Average stats can be flawed because it assumes the difference in experience between a 200 and 250 gamer (a little, hardly any) is the same difference in experience as between a 1 and 51 gamer (a hell of a lot)

When Murph, Morris and Boyd go (Gia already has) in the next year or so I would think the stats will show we would be a very young team, of course assuming we don't trade in equivalent experience which would be unlikely. Guess I am saying our lack of 24=28 yr olds will dramatically influence our games played average.

Like the initial post, the quarters won is promising. But realistically I think everyone hoped for more. Complete hypothetical but if Grif and Minson had maintained last years form, I wonder how many more games we would have won.

 

[BEaston]

Hrovat filled the void???


Lol I really do find this amusing

Sorry I'm not trying to be smart but we are pumping this kid up coz we have f$ck all else to pump up.

His game yesterday AGAINST kids was rubbish and he had 3 awful turnovers and didn't hit a target on the full all day.

I know he is a kid but if this bloke is the future of the club close the bloody doors now coz we are finished


Anyway stats are stats. Doesn't say when we played teams in form or away or blah blah. We can all admit they arnt great and can hope and pray for a miracle improvement next year so I can shut up

Yes he made a couple of costly turnovers but to say he didn't hit a target all day is absolute rubbish. He hit many targets lace out during the game. Just because you don't rate the bloke, you start spouting absolute tripe. Give it a break.

 

[Mattdougie]

Yes he made a couple of costly turnovers but to say he didn't hit a target all day is absolute rubbish. He hit many targets lace out during the game. Just because you don't rate the bloke, you start spouting absolute tripe. Give it a break.

Sorry watch the last half again and find me a target he hit that didn't bounce first

And it's not that I don't rate the kid it's clear he is a handy footballer he just isn't and never will be elite

 

[threenewpadlocks]

38 quarters won/4 = 9.5 games one.
We've improved from last year from that metric.
However our overall % dropped from last year, which is a disappointing sign.
Which suggests... we're a better team than last year but are dropping a lot of points in short periods of time... which maybe because we're transitioning over to younger players.
Maybe.

 

[Butane]

Butane Do you have those stats in Median? Or the average of median/average? Average stats can be flawed because it assumes the difference in experience between a 200 and 250 gamer (a little, hardly any) is the same difference in experience as between a 1 and 51 gamer (a hell of a lot)

Yea, I'll try and get the stats for you by the end of the week. I know median games played is a worse indicator(in all 1500+games) of who should win in every season for the past 9 years but in our case you can see why it would matter.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Yea, I'll try and get the stats for you by the end of the week. I know median games played is a worse indicator(in all 1500+games) of who should win in every season for the past 9 years but in our case you can see why it would matter.

Thanks mate. I didn't know that, interesting.

 

[DylanW]

What I make from an initial interpretation of those stats is less Resilience. Mainly with regards to our average losing margin vs top 4 vs our average losing margin vs not top 4. We seem to drop our heads to often when the going gets hard, but when we feel we're in with a sniff we stay in it.

Maybe expectations were too high for this season in the media, but I think that we could have fared better with 100% effort 100% of the time