1 Ruck or 2 ??? The Midfield Performance Misconception!

[Norm De Guerre]

Nice circular firing squad youse guys has got going.

Im especially enjoying the cherry picking of the all important stats to back each side of an increasingly tedious argument. All hail the stat!

It just goes to prove the Roy Morgan poll that showed that 67.97% of all stats are made up, meaningless or context free to be correct.

 

[ScragCity]

Nice circular firing squad youse guys has got going.

Im especially enjoying the cherry picking of the all important stats to back each side of an increasingly tedious argument. All hail the stat!

It just goes to prove the Roy Morgan poll that showed that 67.97% of all stats are made up, meaningless or context free to be correct.

 

[Libba39]

Didn’t we beat them round 19 last year with just English rucking?

I'm talking about when it counts....

 

[BEaston]

Someone above quoted the win/loss record with Sweet. That’s the appropriate depth of analysis for this thread.

Ahh reminds me when someone tried to convince me we should move AA defender Caleb Daniel out of defence because we won some games when he was injured.

 

[TiAn_]

Ahh reminds me when someone tried to convince me we should move AA defender Caleb Daniel out of defence because we won some games when he was injured.

The important thing is to try.

 

[lachy]

The saddest part about this thread is that it is Looney light compared to the Facebook page

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[Mahama]

I've skipped over most of the thread, but I thought it'd be interesting to delve* into just how useful a backup ruckman's rucking ability actually is, and how much impact it has on a game of footy. I suspect that impact is being severely overrated based on a couple of outlier examples, and perhaps misremembering those too (e.g. during Melbourne's run of clearances and goals in last year's Grand Final, we had two genuine rucks in Martin and English rucking, and Jackson barely won any hitouts).


So, a typical backup ruckman in the AFL (think Lobb, Cox, Cordy) attends on average around 20 ruck contests per game. Given Sweet had 26 last week and rucked the entire second half of the last quarter while English was rested, 20 ruck contests will probably about right for a typical game for him as backup ruck.

Over the last two seasons Sweet averages a hitout win percentage of 36%. Over 20 ruck contests that would mean 7.2 hitouts won per game as backup ruck.

Over the last two seasons Sweet also averages a hitout to advantage percentage of 31%. So of those 7.2 hitouts won, around 2.2 would go to advantage per game.

Now I heard David King mention on AFL 360 last night that the average rate across the AFL for clearances leading to scores is 25%. So being generous and assuming that every hitout to advantage results in a clearance, we can conclude that those 2.4 hitouts to advantage would result in 0.6 scores per game.

Some quick napkin maths assuming our goal kicking accuracy is 47.8% (48% goal, 43% behind, 10% no score) means we get 3.3 points per shot we take.

So all told, Sweet's ruck work as a backup ruck would theoretically be directly responsible for 2 points on the scoreboard per game.

Plug Cordy's ruck stats into the same calculations and his ruckwork would be directly responsible for 1 point per game. Bruce about 1.5 points per game.

And if for some reason Nic Nat was played as a backup ruck, his ruckwork would be directly responsible for just over 3 points per game. Even the best pure ruck in the game would barely move the needle with his ruckwork as a backup.


The issue with Sweet as a second ruck is that he really doesn't seem to add anything outside of his rucking ability, so those 2 points per game in the ruck is about the extent of what he adds for us. Meanwhile someone like Buku is good for multiple marks inside 50 and shots and goal per game, which would easily outweigh Sweet's contribution straight away. It's clear that other backup rucks around the league are selected for what they offer outside their rucking (usually contested marking up forward) and their ability to be tall and jump for 20 contests a game is a small bonus.

It's unfortunate for Sweet - I think it's fair to say that he's a better ruck than Buku is a forward - but that clearly just doesn't matter when you're playing as a backup ruck.


*Extremely simplified for time's sake. Usefulness of any of these calculations is not guaranteed. 20 minutes research on a Friday night is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

 

[ScragCity]

So being generous and assuming that every hitout to advantage results in a clearance

A hitout to advantage results in a clearance for that team only 61% of the time.

 

[LittleG]

20 minutes research on a Friday night is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Good post and I agree.


Just thought I would quote this bit and hope future posting performance is as good.

 

[TMoney22]

F*** stats. We play our best when English can rest forward

When our mids dominate we still can't kick goals

 

[doggies ftw]

winning the clearances so if you listen to Buckets once again selection has been spot on!!

 

[ossie_21]

Sweet and English play every possible game together from now on, please.

 

[CountryDog5]

Another notch on the midfield groups belt doggies ftw. This is on the back of another losing ruck game.

11-1 for the season.

Almost up to 92% win rate for the year.

Or am I getting it wrong and it’s one of those single ruck games where they get dominated?? Too many clearances, I can’t keep up with it all.

Hang on, did you watch the game tonight? I'm not even in the Sweet camp but not playing another tall / backup ruck tonight cost us dearly. The issue with rucks is not the clearances, it's what happens afterwards. English can only do so much in the ruck and around the ground. Geelong tonight had 3 defenders on Naughton at all times because English wasn't able to be adequately chopped out so.he could float forward. Not sure how you can watch tonight's game and still think not playing a backup ruck is the best option?

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[Charlie Bucket]

Hang on, did you watch the game tonight? I'm not even in the Sweet camp but not playing another tall / backup ruck tonight cost us dearly. The issue with rucks is not the clearances, it's what happens afterwards. English can only do so much in the ruck and around the ground. Geelong tonight had 3 defenders on Naughton at all times because English wasn't able to be adequately chopped out so.he could float forward. Not sure how you can watch tonight's game and still think not playing a backup ruck is the best option?

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You’re in the wrong thread CDog. This is the one where we discuss whether our mids struggle or dominate with 1 ruck or 2

I’m happy to participate in a thread to discuss our 1 ruck policy and it’s supposed effects around the ground. You’ll have to start it though as I can’t be f**ed starting another thread.

 

[TMoney22]

Hang on, did you watch the game tonight? I'm not even in the Sweet camp but not playing another tall / backup ruck tonight cost us dearly. The issue with rucks is not the clearances, it's what happens afterwards. English can only do so much in the ruck and around the ground. Geelong tonight had 3 defenders on Naughton at all times because English wasn't able to be adequately chopped out so.he could float forward. Not sure how you can watch tonight's game and still think not playing a backup ruck is the best option?

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Abso*feking*lately. Great to see newish posters call this out

 

[CountryDog5]

You’re in the wrong thread CDog. This is the one where we discuss whether our mids struggle or dominate with 1 ruck or 2

I’m happy to participate in a thread to discuss our 1 ruck policy and it’s supposed effects around the ground. You’ll have to start it though as I can’t be f**ed starting another thread.

Ah bloody hell, between this thread and the team selection thread every week it gets confusing as to what you fellas are actually arguing about. If you're only arguing that it doesn't matter who's rucking, we still do ok around stoppages; you're probably not far off the mark. What I have read for certain though (maybe not you but other posters) is that some think we're worse off playing a 2nd ruck / fwd if they're at the calibre of sweet / Schache. It's pretty bloody clear that even if sweet has a stinker around the ground, having him (or another tall) pinch hit in the ruck makes us so much better by allowing chilli to float into the forward line or defence without completely gassing him. Playing 1 ruck leaves us even another man short in the fwd line to take attention away from naughts, who we must think is superman if we expect him to take on 3 defenders every contest. Just struggle to see why that domino effect isn't being noticed by the coaches, because it sticks out like a sore thumb to those of us poor buggers who have to watch our style of play every time we run Tim by himself.

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[Dogsman16]

Happy to die on the "always structure first" hill. I don't care who is in form or who isn't.

99.9% of the time you select 2 tall forwards, 1 ruck + deciding between a 2nd ruck or another tall forward/ruck chop out.

Unless there is a monsoon. Not this revolving door bullshit.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Ah bloody hell, between this thread and the team selection thread every week it gets confusing as to what you fellas are actually arguing about. If you're only arguing that it doesn't matter who's rucking, we still do ok around stoppages; you're probably not far off the mark. What I have read for certain though (maybe not you but other posters) is that some think we're worse off playing a 2nd ruck / fwd if they're at the calibre of sweet / Schache. It's pretty bloody clear that even if sweet has a stinker around the ground, having him (or another tall) pinch hit in the ruck makes us so much better by allowing chilli to float into the forward line or defence without completely gassing him. Playing 1 ruck leaves us even another man short in the fwd line to take attention away from naughts, who we must think is superman if we expect him to take on 3 defenders every contest. Just struggle to see why that domino effect isn't being noticed by the coaches, because it sticks out like a sore thumb to those of us poor buggers who have to watch our style of play every time we run Tim by himself.

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I’m in the playing 1 ruck and 1 fwd/ruck camp, but seeing as there’s not one of those on our list, I’m s**t out of luck.

Tim happens to be our best ruckman and best pinch hitting ruck/part one forward.
Leaves a massive hole to fill that we’re struggling with atm. Turns out our recent list management decisions haven’t been too crash hot.

I’m half in on Schache playing that role as he s been bloody good the last two VFL games. Particularly today. The issue is that his ruck work is pretty poor. Saying that, he’d definitely be my first selection change
next week.

 

[adogsfan5]

Sweet starts in the ruck, Tim starts deep forward and takes the pressure off Naughton for half a game.

 

[Dog 36]

Sweet starts in the ruck, Tim starts deep forward and takes the pressure off Naughton for half a game.

Go away that’s to simple and correct.

 

[DueWest]

Any stat can back up any argument.

We were 10 and 2 playing two rucks start of last year. Probably the most important stat.

For what it worth I would only play 1 ruck this week. Yet there will be times when we should play 2, if anything as I've said before to preserve English who has faulted in finals after long home and away rounds. He stamina is getting better but don't run him into the ground.

We play our best footy with 2 Rucks plain and simple, why ? Because we have a once in generation midfield who takes advantage of it.

We don’t select a side to play to our strengths, this is the issue

Best win this year we had Sweet playing and English back. Best run of wins this year we had Sweet playing with a half competent back up ruck in Cordy, not a stick insect like Khamis (no offence but he should be playing 3rd tall only)

 

[Maverick Dog]

Tim is now a far better follower than forward. His around the ground work is his point of difference. Yes it did not work as well the Cats mobile rucks but it will against most. Sweet is purely a tap ruckman and is quite good at it but he is irrelevant around the ground. Unfortunately playing both is not the best option. Sweet has to improve his for ward craft.

schache should be in as the 2nd ruck/fwd/def. yes he is not great in ruck but he has a good footy iq and provided relief to Tim. We need his fwd craft because Naughts has none. Khamis is not ready yet. I would play Schache, Naughts and JUH in fwd line. JUH also has fwd craft.

i think the midfielder and the rucks are irrelevant now. It is about getting the team structure right so we have a functioning fwd line. Blind freddy can see it but Bevo cannot which is a worry

 

[_Mike_]

Tim is now a far better follower than forward.

I think he's better used as a swingman KPP. He was pansted by Stanley last night and 2nd to the ball at most stoppages. If that's the best option we have for a tap ruck at the stoppages then we've already lost the contest at the ball up and have to rely on the onballers and mids getting the ball from the opposition. English looked off the boil for most of last night and there were occasions where he waited back at the ruck contest and refused to go hard at the ball early in the game.

I'll stand by my opinion that English is not a 1st choice ruck and they've got to let Martin go, get another and use someone else as a tap ruck stop gap

 

[adogsfan5]

I know it’s no chance, but could we use English in a similar fashion to Blicavs I wonder? Does some ruck work, plays on the wing, pushes back to help, pushes forward, almost like a 5th on baller who also does some ruck work. He can still have his 30-40% pure ruck work too.

 

[BEaston]

Hang on, did you watch the game tonight? I'm not even in the Sweet camp but not playing another tall / backup ruck tonight cost us dearly. The issue with rucks is not the clearances, it's what happens afterwards. English can only do so much in the ruck and around the ground. Geelong tonight had 3 defenders on Naughton at all times because English wasn't able to be adequately chopped out so.he could float forward. Not sure how you can watch tonight's game and still think not playing a backup ruck is the best option?

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So play an extra tall forward then? That's nothing to do with the 2nd ruck.