List Mgmt. 2015 LIST Discussion - trades, free agency etc

[LordLucifer]

We cant use Melbourne as a yardstick for what we should do.

They got mature players in and they are no better off than before... (Vince/Cross/Lumumba)

Yes the 3 mentioned have played good football at times... but they have shielded development of a core group of kids to grow together

An extremely valid & important point that is constantly overlooked by many.

 

[Cipher]

Okay, let's just accept mediocrity and a bottom 4 finish for the next decade or two ??

For what it's worth, I'll back SOS & Co to find them in the drafts & trades, if not, we may as well merge or close the doors completely.

We may as well merge if we can't find 12 players this off season better than B grade status? Yeah OK, solid argument.

We won't be turning over the list that drastic.

 

[LordLucifer]

We may as well merge if we can't find 12 players this off season better than B grade status? Yeah OK, solid argument.

We won't be turning over the list that drastic.

If we don't improve our list above B-Grade status then we will never ever play finals, but I guess that doesn't worry you ??

We have three players retiring, four players who more than likely will be traded , two who are out of contract and don't deserve a new one which is nine in total already but you think 12 is drastic ??

 

[Blue and Silver]

We cant use Melbourne as a yardstick for what we should do.

They got mature players in and they are no better off than before... (Vince/Cross/Lumumba)

Yes the 3 mentioned have played good football at times... but they have shielded development of a core group of kids to grow together

I am actually not sure what you mean. I was suggesting that Melbourne's complete rebuild has failed because they had no transitional players. Not that their recent attempts to patch that mistake have been a success

 

[Blue__Balls]

People have short memories Bluey, I seem to recall we turned over 12-14 players last year too.

Yep - and we topped up with Jones, Tutt, Dick etc.

Don't take it as a criticism, I think you're on the right path. Just wondering if we need to go as hard at it this year, or if we're better served by holding onto some of the younger guys until at least next year.

Who do we think we'll lose next season? Simmo, Jamo, Walker, Wood, Armfield? Plus some genuine delistings.

12-13 this year and 8 next year
vs.
10 this year and 10 next year

If the 2016 draft is stronger, as reported, I can see a case for holding Menzel, Dick and Watson for at least one more season. New coach turns them around, or they get us a better return than they would this season.

 

[Matty411]

Reckon we'll see at least a few calls made next week on some of the following guys:

Kreuz, Yaz, Watson, Warnock and a few rookies. Although with a month until trade period, Bolts may hold off on a few.

 

[LordLucifer]

Yep - and we topped up with Jones, Tutt, Dick etc.

Don't take it as a criticism, I think you're on the right path. Just wondering if we need to go as hard at it this year, or if we're better served by holding onto some of the younger guys until at least next year.

Who do we think we'll lose next season? Simmo, Jamo, Walker, Wood, Armfield? Plus some genuine delistings.

12-13 this year and 8 next year
vs.
10 this year and 10 next year

If the 2016 draft if stronger, as reported, I can see a case for holding Menzel, Dick and Watson for at least one more season. New coach turns them around, or they get us a better return than they would this season.

I fully understand what they were trying to achieve by topping up with Jones, Tutt, Dick etc but they pulled the wrong strings, whoever made those calls (more than likely Malthouse) clearly saw something in them that no-one else ever has.

We will lose a few more of the older guys next year and the year after as their contracts expire but, if we haven't brought in some decent newbies now via the draft to replace them (a year or two of development in the seconds) we'll be in an even worse position then than we are now.

 

[thylacine60]

Left field is always my favourite place.

But hey, I am a fool student wishing after a PhD. Big ideas, different conceptions and the obscure enthrall me

Keeping in mind we need enough mature bodies/team players so as not to "Melbourne"

Now there's an idea. Players who want to play, for the sheer joy of it.

Footy is a job of course, but pride in one's work is a driving force like no other

You will boss-mod here one day.........brainiac......

 

[Cipher]

If we don't improve our list above B-Grade status then we will never ever play finals, but I guess that doesn't worry you ??

Do away with the hyperbole.

We have three players retiring, four players who more than likely will be traded , two who are out of contract and don't deserve a new one which is nine in total already but you think 12 is drastic ??

I'm expecting 9, perhaps 10 but that in itself is significant. There is no way we can get in 12 quality players and we need to allow for more list changes next year, so it would be poor management. We won't be getting rid of Dick, and all of Yarran, Henderson, Bell and Menzel for instance.

 

[TommyMcG]

this bloke would be good for the rookie list, reminds me of a shorter Warnock actually:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/u...est-man-in-sport/story-fnp542pg-1227512227807

Oakman, 23, stands 206cm tall and weighs 123kg. That makes him an inch taller than James and the same weight as NRL heavyweight Dave Taylor.

He has six per cent body fat, bench presses 180kg and squats 270kg. This summer while fooling around in the gym he did a 100cm box jump holding 30kg dumbbells in his hands and completed four chin ups with a 55kg weight tied to his waist.

But it’s not just his strength that makes him incredible. Oakman’s conditioning coach expects him to run a 4.6 second 40-yard sprint at the NFL draft combine next year and he also has a vertical leap of 97cm.

ASADA would be knocking down our door daily.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

We are second last on the ladder with a brittle defence, a forward-line that is virtually non-existent plus a ruck division that is one of the worst in the league.

Yet you think turning over 12 players is cutting too deep ??

FMD, way too many people here want to hang on to B-Graders & list-cloggers whilst at the same time, blatantly complain about our poor onfield performances and ladder finishes.

You can't have it both ways folks !!!!

Why don't we just cut the whole list & pick up 30 future stars in the draft then?

 

[Blue and Silver]

You will boss-mod here one day.........brainiac......

How dare you threaten me

 

[LordLucifer]

Do away with the hyperbole.


I'm expecting 9, perhaps 10 but that in itself is significant. There is no way we can get in 12 quality players and we need to allow for more list changes next year, so it would be poor management. We won't be getting rid of Dick, and all of Yarran, Henderson, Bell and Menzel for instance.

What hyperbole ?? You seem to be rather accepting of where we are now by not acknowledging that we need to radically overhaul our list.

As for getting rid of Dick, Yarran, Henderson, Bell & Menzel, well I'm sorry but I beg to differ.

SOS wants first round picks and as many of them as he can get his mitts on, four of those guys are our only "real" trade commodities and if we can get a first rounder for each of them, they will be moved on.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I fully understand what they were trying to achieve by topping up with Jones, Tutt, Dick etc but they pulled the wrong strings, whoever made those calls (more than likely Malthouse) clearly saw something in them that no-one else ever has.

We will lose a few more of the older guys next year and the year after as their contracts expire but, if we haven't brought in some decent newbies now via the draft to replace them (a year or two of development in the seconds) we'll be in an even worse position then than we are now.

Yep, knee-jerk reaction to losing Waite and Garlett, cost us bugger-all but gained us the same.

Obviously the experts have a better idea than we would, but as per my earlier post, ditching 10 players means we'll likely be topping up like so:

Pick 2
Pick 3
Hendo comp
Yarran comp
Pick 21
Pick 39
Pick 57
PSD 2
Rookie 2
Rookie 20

If we also delisted Dick and Watson (neither of whom will likely get us much of anything in a trade), how would you go about filling their spots on the list? Trading the Hendo/Yarran picks for multiple players or lower picks? Trading away pick 3?

 

[LordLucifer]

Why don't we just cut the whole list & pick up 30 future stars in the draft then?

Great idea, let's do it, worked for GWS !!

 

[LordLucifer]

If we also delisted Dick and Watson (neither of whom will likely get us much of anything in a trade), how would you go about filling their spots on the list? Trading the Hendo/Yarran picks for multiple players or lower picks? Trading away pick 3?

I'll answer that conundrum by asking, how many teams in the Top 8 would Dick & Watson get a game for ??

If they aren't good enough to fit in with an existing finalist then I really don't see why we should keep them when we are a near wooden-spooner.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Great idea, let's do it, worked for GWS !!

Slight difference in that their picks came at the start of the draft, so they got all of the best kids in the country.
26 or so of our picks would come at the end of the draft, well after the bottom of the barrel has been scraped clean (especially with this supposedly shallow draft).

The draft isn't a magic well of talent, regardless of what the rest of bigfooty tells you.

 

[LordLucifer]

Slight difference in that their picks came at the start of the draft, so they got all of the best kids in the country.
26 or so of our picks would come at the end of the draft, well after the bottom of the barrel has been scraped clean (especially with this supposedly shallow draft).

The draft isn't a magic well of talent, regardless of what the rest of bigfooty tells you.

Putting aside their one-sided draft concessions, who was the architect behind assembling the GWS list ??

The same guy we now have in charge of overseeing our list, you don't think he is going to implement a similar plan ??

 

[Blue__Balls]

I'll answer that conundrum by asking, how many teams in the Top 8 would Dick & Watson get a game for ??

If they aren't good enough to fit in with an existing finalist then I really don't see why we should keep them when we are a near wooden-spooner.

Still haven't answer the question though...where are their replacements coming from?

Dick is only 20, has performed consistently in the reserves, and could comfortably be persisted with for at least another season with a new coach.

Watson should probably go, wouldn't be surprised if he did, but can see a case for keeping him on as depth at his age.

Would you rather Dick and Watson be replaced by picks 21 and 39 next year, or picks 75 and 93 this year?

 

[BluesRule]

People have short memories Bluey, I seem to recall we turned over 12-14 players last year too.

But we got a lot of VFL quality players in. Overall quality of our list declined last year.

Really hope some will develop (KJ, BB, Whiley) but we have few A graders from the 2014 draft at this point in time as DVR, Clem, Foster have not shown they can become best 22 yet but I am hoping to see more next year. From our rookies (Gowers Walsh Fields and Russell) most expect at least 2 to be delisted? Our trades for Tutt and Jones were simply bad?

Expecting to replace 12 players with quality is unlikely. Hope SOS can prove me wrong.

 

[BluesRule]

Of your 12, reckon the only ones I'd disagree with are Dick, Menzel and Watson.

And that's not a firm disagreement either - can see reasons to let them all go, but reckon they could be worth at least one more year each if we can't bring in enough quality replacements this year. Could then add Kreuzer to the list of departing players if that's the way the cards fall, meaning 10 out this year.

Losing Kreuzer to free agency would mean we can't pick any others up without sacrificing the compensation pick.

Pick 2
Pick 3
Hendo comp
Yarran comp
Pick 21
Pick 39
Pick 57
PSD 2
Rookie 2
Rookie 20

That's already going pretty deep into the draft, including 2 rookies. To bring anyone else onto the list we're needing to orchestrate 2-for-1 deals on some of our trades (Hendo, Yarran, Menzel) or by trading high picks for multiple lower ones (which I'd be against doing as a general rule).

If we offloaded 12-13 players as per your breakdown - how would you suggest we replace them?

We could get Lamb as a delisted free agent or PSD? Still not sure if he helps us.

 

[Matty411]

We could get Lamb as a delisted free agent or PSD? Still not sure if he helps us.

Late token pick in a trade for Lamb (which SOS is apparently keen on) or steak knives in a deal for Hendo.

 

[ferrisb]

As a new poster, I haven't quite got my message across in the way I intended, so I going to have another go!

Lets use the Golden State Warriors (GSW) as an example of how a Championship is built from the bottom up.

Step 1 - Identify Exploitable Opportunities within the Game.

http://trdatastrategy.com/2015/07/five-data-strategy-lessons-from-golden-state-warriors/

In this article, it shows GSW management used Big Data to identify trends and opportunities within the game to determine what type of game they needed to play if they were going to win. The key to their success was identifying the 3 Point Shot as the most underutilised advantage in the game, even though it had been part of the rules for over 15 years. It was an advantage in plain site.

Step 2 - Putting the Pieces Together

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/17/golden-state-warriors-nba-title-stephen-curry-roster-built-timeline

It is really interesting to me that GSW drafted their guards, e.g. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes etc with high draft picks. All their bigs came from trades and late draft picks. e.g. Bogut from the Bucks, David Lee from the Knicks, Green 2nd Round pick and then they topped up with a veteran or two most notably Igoudala.

Step 3 - The Right Coach

The team was showing potential but couldn't get it going with the wrong coach. They made a change and brought in rookie coach Steve Kerr, who had the experience of winning organisations and he took the team over the top.

What does this mean for Carlton?

In my view management doesn't have a view about what direction we should be going and I don't believe they have really worked out what direction the game is going. Therefore, in my opinion, they can't possibly know what pieces we need. They have finally worked out that what we are doing isn't working, better late than never. The appointment of Bolton is helpful and the impending turnover of the coaching team helpful. But Brendon and SOS in my view need some analytical support to determine what is going to be a winning formula in 5 years time.

If you believe the commentary from the Lab in Fox Footy, the single biggest factor of success in footy today is scores from turnovers. Will this be the same in 5 years? Who knows. But if it is. The approach to winning a flag should be:

1. What game plan do we need to create the maximum number of turnovers?
2. What is the most efficient way of scoring from turnovers?
3. How do we stop a team that is good at creating turnovers so we can get an edge?
4. What roles emerge from this style of play?
5. What type of athletes/footballers do we need to fill these roles?
6. What development programs do we need.

The trend seems to be towards, bigger more athletic midfielders as opposed to the taller immobile players the Carlton recruiting department has been targeting. (Just as an aside, I see forward lines becoming more like the NFL, where our midfielders become more like quarterbacks and our forward line is more running a series of set plays to find open space for receivers, who may or may not be talls!)

So what do we have to build on?

SOS - Will need to be a visionary leader of the transition, but he can't do it alone.
Bolton - Needs to build a team of experts around him.
The Board - Needs to find the money to spend in the Coaching / Analytics / Development departments to give us an edge
Cripps is the first building block, he needs to add goal kicking to his weapons (the role of the development department)

So by default, as much as I like Kreuzer, I think we need as many early picks as we can get. I think the midfielders will define our destiny, and we can live with recycled bigs e.g. Hale, Mumford.

Just my two bobs worth in an interesting debate.

CB

Needless to say both you AND the entire Golden State Warriors organisation are dead to thylacine60 right now.

 

[fnm_just a man]

Judd, Carrazzo, Ellard out frees up a fair bit of $

Stevie J for minimum chips anyone? Would have still been in the Cats best this year for at least 8-10 games. He comes from a winning culture, premiership player, experienced and can still kick a goal. And most importantly could assist with coaching the forward line on and offield.

Yep. Definitely still a best 22 at Cats ... Geelong have made some poor decisions the last couple of years, and this may be another ... Should have achieved more last year and this year, imo.

 

[Carl Tone]

NO !!!

We need a bottoming out rebuild, not more bandaids on the hemorrhaging !!

Oi! That's taking my post totally out of context. Stevie J was in addition to 4-5 new top 20 picks along with possibly two of Aish, Redden, Treloar. As a trade for a quality draft pick I'm not for it at all, but as a very late 3rd round pick, after the primary draft work is done, I'd be happy to see the club entertain it.