Other NFL & NCAA Gambling Discussion
- Thread starter Zealbee
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- Feb 21, 2006
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There's always one game that ruins my big multi! Today I had KC, Cinci, Houston -2.5/under 49.5, Vikings and it was ruined by the Jags going down to SD!
I made a bit of money of this season though, started with $10 in week 1 and kept letting it ride on favourites - turned that $10 into $250 and would've had $400 but I hedged a treble I had with Panthers over Colts in the last leg. That game went into OT so I saved myself a heart attack but lost $150.
I made a bit of money of this season though, started with $10 in week 1 and kept letting it ride on favourites - turned that $10 into $250 and would've had $400 but I hedged a treble I had with Panthers over Colts in the last leg. That game went into OT so I saved myself a heart attack but lost $150.
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- #553
Never understood the love for Jacksonville. Avoid at all times people. Despite how bad the Chargers are Rivers > Bortles.
- Feb 21, 2006
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Jags have been OK the last few weeks and, more to the point, the Chargers have been abysmal. Can't believe they got up today, was more a bet against the Chargers than for the Jags.
Couldn't believe Vikings weren't favourites, should have just put my money on them or double it with the Houston -2.5/under 49.5, thought that was a pretty safe bet too.
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- #555
I was great with my tips but didn't put any of them on bar one smallish multi.
Lions +1, Carolina +1, Minnesota +2.5, Kansas City -4.5 would have done really well. FML.
Lions +1, Carolina +1, Minnesota +2.5, Kansas City -4.5 would have done really well. FML.
- Jul 21, 2008
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Vikings & Pats -2.5 are my bets for the day 
That hurts!!!!
Come on Tom Brady
I'm going Ravens to beat the Browns @ $3.00 on Unibet.
Everything says Browns should win this one considering the injuries the Ravens have but the Browns have only won 2 games themselves and haven't even been competitive in the last 4. The Ravens on the other hand have won 2 of the last 3 and their last 4 losses have been a combined 18 points. Odds should be a lot closer.
Ravens +3.5 @ $2.12 on Unibet also a good bet imo.
Everything says Browns should win this one considering the injuries the Ravens have but the Browns have only won 2 games themselves and haven't even been competitive in the last 4. The Ravens on the other hand have won 2 of the last 3 and their last 4 losses have been a combined 18 points. Odds should be a lot closer.
Ravens +3.5 @ $2.12 on Unibet also a good bet imo.
The line is now Cleveland -4 on sportsbet. Happy with the -2.5 I got earlier in the week.
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
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No worries pal.
We could even go for a gutless middle and hope for a Cleveland FG win to scoop. Bookies love that.
If the line is a round number, i.e -3 and they win by 3, I take it you still lose the bet?No worries pal.
We could even go for a gutless middle and hope for a Cleveland FG win to scoop. Bookies love that.
Can't say it's ever happened to me and I doubt the bookies would give money back for a "draw" lol
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
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Cash back. No different to when they set a line in soccer at -1.
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
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Others:
Giants +2.5 ($1.9 Lad/BM/BS) and Broncos -4 ($1.88 SB) and Oakland +3 ($1.88 LUX)
Not as heavily invested with these as i am with Minnesota though.
Giants +2.5 ($1.9 Lad/BM/BS) and Broncos -4 ($1.88 SB) and Oakland +3 ($1.88 LUX)
Not as heavily invested with these as i am with Minnesota though.
Lions +3 @ $1.86
Bills -3 @ $1.84
Vikings +1 @ $1.88
Panthers -7 @ $1.96
Redskins -4 @ $1.86
All look decent to me, reckon I could hit 4 out of 5 of those
Bills -3 @ $1.84
Vikings +1 @ $1.88
Panthers -7 @ $1.96
Redskins -4 @ $1.86
All look decent to me, reckon I could hit 4 out of 5 of those
+2.5 & -4 are two of the worst bets you can make.
Teams very rarely win by less then 3 so +2.5 is no different to head to head.
Teams rarely win by 4 or 5 so -4 is no different to -5.5.
Same as +1 take the money line.
The bookies have a huge edge when betting the lines don't give them a bigger edge by betting poor lines. Move -4 out to -5.5 and +2.5 to head to head lines for better odds with very little extra risk.
Teams very rarely win by less then 3 so +2.5 is no different to head to head.
Teams rarely win by 4 or 5 so -4 is no different to -5.5.
Same as +1 take the money line.
The bookies have a huge edge when betting the lines don't give them a bigger edge by betting poor lines. Move -4 out to -5.5 and +2.5 to head to head lines for better odds with very little extra risk.
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- #568
Why did I bet on Cleveland?!
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
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Pretty much, this is horrendous.
Go the Ravens!
Still early though.
Still early though.
What a way to win
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
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Hadn't really thought about it too much, but there are definitely more sensible and logical lines than others.
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- #574
Patriots -9 @ 1.95 the bet of the year surely.
Line betting is difficult to win consistently over a long period as the bookies have a huge edge, bit like a casino. So the last thing you want to be doing is reducing the odds you get or the chances of winning by taking poor lines. Especially nowadays as bookies let you pick your own lines in most cases.
I've posted this elsewhere and it's on NBA but the stats are similar to NFL betting and it highlights the edge the bookies have.
These are stats I kept from last NBA season through the first 360 games, I stopped keeping them after that because I had the info I needed.
We will start with line bets.
Underdogs won straight up 27% of games.
Underdogs covered the line but didn't win the game 22% of games.
So the + line won 49% of games.
Favourites covered the line 49% of games (the - line).
Which leaves about 2% of games as pushes. This highlights how sharp the lines are.
When you throw in the fact that on a line bet you get odds of $1.92 if you are lucky that leaves a significant edge for the bookies which is no different to the edge a casino gets. The bookies get 8% advantage (every $1 you risk they only pay 92c if you win) on a 49% bet.
So over the long term that becomes very hard to beat unless you are very very good.
Also what a lot of people forget or don't even realise is that a bookie generally doesn't care if a line wins or loses all they are trying to do is get both sides of the line bet on evenly so that no matter the outcome of the game they win because of the 8% juice.
These stats are nearly identical for the under/over lines as well.
It's even worse when betting multi's:
Multi's are even harder to get a consistent return from over a period of time for 2 main reasons, which is why bookies encourage punters to multi up.
1. The obvious one, the odds of winning are lower. In basic terms to win a standard line bet it is 50/50 it wins or loses, so you have 2 possible outcomes.
A 2 leg multi bet though has 4 possible outcomes with only 1 outcome winning you any money, so a 50/50 bet is now 25/75, each leg you add reduces the odds of you winning. The 4 possible outcomes of 2 leg mutli are - WW, WL, LW, LL.
2. The other not so obvious reason is the "juice" or cut the bookies take. On a standard line bet the bookies only offer you $1.92 instead of $2. This 8c is the house edge if you like. Now on a 2 leg mutli the odds become $3.68($1.92 x $1.92) so instead of giving the bookie 8c per leg you are now spotting them 32c or 16c per leg so you have doubled the "juice" they receive and lowered your chances of actually getting a return.
So to make money betting line bets you need to win around 53% to make a small profit. Betting 2 leg multi's you need to win around 28% (which is equivalent to 56%).
