Position 2015 SuperCoach forwards

[karaoke]

Most people respect opinions on SC around here. Outlandish predictions of Cotchin winning the Brownlow however.......

Sportingbet don't seem to think it's too outlandish.....

thetradesman - keep posting fella,

 

[thetradesman]

View attachment 105800

Sportingbet don't seem to think it's too outlandish.....

thetradesman - keep posting fella,

Umpires love the man, but I'm not getting into it again haha.

 

[MightyMark]

View attachment 105800

Sportingbet don't seem to think it's too outlandish.....

thetradesman - keep posting fella,

Not bad value for Pendles.

 

[toxic]

View attachment 105800

Sportingbet don't seem to think it's too outlandish.....

thetradesman - keep posting fella,

Surprised Rockliff isnt up there

 

[Kadog]

Cotchin equal betting with Pendles??
Pass me the crack pipe plz

 

[Krujan]

What are SP's odds? Has as much chance of winning the Brownlow as Cotchin does.

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Most people respect opinions on SC around here. Outlandish predictions of Cotchin winning the Brownlow however.......

What's the issue with that? Cotchin will win the Brownlow.

But seriously, I haven't seen the claims but what's wrong with thinking Cotch could win one? He came equal second to Jab Watson in what 2012?

 

[karaoke]

What are SP's odds? Has as much chance of winning the Brownlow as Cotchin does.

41.00 on Sportingbet

 

[Krujan]

41.00 on Sportingbet

Noice! I'll be all over that. $$$

 

[TheOz]

Got a few in mind.

GWS is the hardest one, and Essendon

Griffen and Hibberd.

 

[Jiska]

What's the issue with that? Cotchin will win the Brownlow.

But seriously, I haven't seen the claims but what's wrong with thinking Cotch could win one? He came equal second to Jab Watson in what 2012?

He may well win one one day, but not in 2014 as predicted.

 

[thetradesman]

So really it wasn't that outlandish?

 

[Jiska]

So really it wasn't that outlandish?

Not totally. If not for 9 other players he would have won.

 

[thetradesman]

Not totally. If not for 9 other players he would have won.

Considering he had probably the worst year of his career (apart from when he was having loads of injuries) it's a decent result though?

Anyways, gonna be interesting to see many peoples teams after tomorrow.

 

[Amazing Bombers]

Thoughts on Harley Bennell? Averaged 95+ last 3 seasons.

 

[go you pups]

Thoughts on Harley Bennell? Averaged 95+ last 3 seasons.

Only played 15 games each the last 2 years, pass.

Scored a 167 and a 144 which heavily inflated his average also, only scored 5 tons from 15, too hit or miss for me.

 

[Jiska]

Only played 15 games each the last 2 years, pass.

Scored a 167 and a 144 which heavily inflated his average also, only scored 5 tons from 15, too hit or miss for me.

Agreed. Also burnt me a cropper two years ago getting injured in round three or something.

 

[hoddo]

The calibre of talent is enough to explain those listed above who did have good second years isn't it? All of the above a truly elite. I think that is what makes the difference.

I think the reason for disagreement here is that people are wrongly calling it the "second year" syndrome when it's really the "year after" syndrome. It's not that players tend to have a let down in their second year ... they tend to have it the year after what is arguably their breakout year, regardless of how many years into their career that happens.

Lets look at the players mentioned and a few others. I'm using SC scores as they are the most reliable objective guide we have to performance.

Martin
2010 77.9 (promising start)
2011 98.9 (breakout year)
2012 88.5 (suffered a let down)
2013 101.8 (bounced back to breakout year form)

Fyfe
2010 72.6 (promising start)
2011 108.0 (breakout year)
2012 93.2 (suffered a let down)
2013 105.5 (bounced back breakout year form)

Zorko
2012 100.0 (broke out in his first year)
2013 82.9 (suffered a let down)
2014 99.0 (bounced back to breakout form)

Wingard
2012 51.7 (ordinary start)
2013 98.6 (breakout year)
2014 79.9 (suffered a let down)
2015 ?

H.Bennell
2011 68.6 (fair start)
2012 98.6 (breakout year)
2013 97.5 (maintained form)
2014 95.5 (maintained form)

D.Swallow
2011 79.7 (promising start)
2012 78.2 (no real change)
2013 79.2 (no real change)
2014 103.2 (breakout year)
2015 ?

Wines
2013 74.0 (promising start)
2014 100.3 (breakout year)
2015 ?

Macrae
2013 61.4 (fair start)
2014 100.1 (breakout year)
2015 ?

Bontempelli
2014 78.6 (promising start)
2015 ?

Martin, Fyfe and Zorko all follow the pattern of having a breakout year, falling away significantly the year after and then bouncing back the following year. Wingard may bounce back too. Bennell is the exception as he maintained his top form. The comment that started this debate was about Bontempelli but, as promising as it was, his first season wasn't good enough for him to suffer a let down in 2015. If anything the pattern suggests he's more likely to break out this year. The players I'd be concerned about are Wines, Macrae and Swallow. They're the ones most likely to suffer a let down this season ... according to the pattern.

 

[go you pups]

Great analysis there hoddo are you able to do one on say Pendlebury and Jelwood, can't really think of too many others who are 26-27 and are elite but were guns at an early age also, dunno if Marc Murphy can be counted here. Younger types (23-25) like Sloane, Dangerfield, Fyfe seem to be better options.

 

[hoddo]

Great analysis there hoddo are you able to do one on say Pendlebury and Jelwood, can't really think of too many others who are 26-27 and are elite but were guns at an early age also, dunno if Marc Murphy can be counted here. Younger types (23-25) like Sloane, Dangerfield, Fyfe seem to be better options.

Pendlebury, Jelwood, Murphy and Sloane all had their breakout year and continued to improve the next year .... and in following years. I guess the very best players are more likely to resist the trend, but how do we know who they are when they're just starting out?

Dangerfield was actually a slow starter, only playing 2 low scoring games in his first year, then averaging in the 60s for two years, then averaging in the 80s for a year before finally breaking out with a 118.9 average in 2012. He's dropped back a little each of the past two years. Could we be overrating him?

 

[go you pups]

Dangerfield was actually a slow starter, only playing 2 low scoring games in his first year, then averaging in the 60s for two years, then averaging in the 80s for a year before finally breaking out with a 118.9 average in 2012. He's dropped back a little each of the past two years. Could we be overrating him?

Perhaps, I remember his first 3 years he was used as a forward with occasionally running on ball before really using his strength from stoppages in 2012. I wonder if someone like Jake Stringer who has the potential to be a 80-90 pt fwd in the next two years could go to 110 type numbers if he ever moves into the midfield full time.

 

[MightyMark]

Perhaps, I remember his first 3 years he was used as a forward with occasionally running on ball before really using his strength from stoppages in 2012. I wonder if someone like Jake Stringer who has the potential to be a 80-90 pt fwd in the next two years could go to 110 type numbers if he ever moves into the midfield full time.

Would take a bit of time for him to get to that stage, I think they will use him down forward to take the pressure off Boyd at least for this year.

 

[go you pups]

Would take a bit of time for him to get to that stage, I think they will use him down forward to take the pressure off Boyd at least for this year.

For sure, Crameri might get a ban also so he's needed as a 2nd/3td target at the moment but boy he shows potential with his ability to break tackles and kick goals at ground level, snaps, on the run etc, can kick 55-60m set shots also. His SC numbers are way better than his DT numbers as well, if he carries on and is able to snag 35-40 this year id say he would average at least 80.

 

[MightyMark]

For sure, Crameri might get a ban also so he's needed as a 2nd/3td target at the moment but boy he shows potential with his ability to break tackles and kick goals at ground level, snaps, on the run etc, can kick 55-60m set shots also. His SC numbers are way better than his DT numbers as well, if he carries on and is able to snag 35-40 this year id say he would average at least 80.

Bodes very well for him if he ever does get the chance to move forward. Big bodied goal kicking mids are gold.

 

[Big Bryza]

Anyone like Devon Smith as a POD?