Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Doubt we'll see any pick trading anytime soon, clubs holding off until they see how the cards fall on draft night. Some good hypotheticals though.

Pick swap pre-draft:

2019 - 26
2020 - 20
2021 - 8
2022 - 7

Consensus is that Watson, Curtin and Sanders all available at our pick.

Would be insanity to go Sanders.

 

[Thorgils]

Would be insanity to go Sanders.

Agree 50/50 Watson/Curtin.

 

[matey]

Big fan of the Wiz but could you see him being the best out of this years crop? With Curtins versatility, composure and the way he moves for 197cm and 95 kg ….. he has got a number of traits that could!

 

[Bugs1977]

Big fan of the Wiz but could you see him being the best out of this years crop? With Curtins versatility, composure and the way he moves for 197cm and 95 kg ….. he has got a number of traits that could!

IMO Watson has the talent to be the best small forward since a certain #33

 

[spudmaster]

IMO Watson has the talent to be the best small forward since a certain #33

 

[eldorado]

View attachment 1840400

A face that could scare a hungry dog out of a butcher's shop...

 

[DrAbs]

Have we explored if Norf will be willing to trade their pick 3 for our F1.

We may think Norf are bottom 2 but they may be of the view we are the bottom 2 and expect to be in Top 10 given their "talents".

or even a swap of picks to give us chance of landing Duursma & then making a play for Pick 1.

3+F1 for 4+F1.

I'd do that trade you just put up there. But I don't think North will back their chances to finish higher than us next season tbh.

 

[theiaofseed]

Have we explored if Norf will be willing to trade their pick 3 for our F1.

We may think Norf are bottom 2 but they may be of the view we are the bottom 2 and expect to be in Top 10 given their "talents".

or even a swap of picks to give us chance of landing Duursma & then making a play for Pick 1.

3+F1 for 4+F1.

In what world would a team trade Pick 3 for a Future first that at best will be roughly the same.

 

[DrAbs]

Big fan of the Wiz but could you see him being the best out of this years crop? With Curtins versatility, composure and the way he moves for 197cm and 95 kg ….. he has got a number of traits that could!

It's a tough choice to make. Watson is good albeit a little overrated. Curtin is also a bit overrated in some aspects. Duursma would be the ideal option for us because he's a weapon both aerially and at ground level. Instead of focusing on Reid, we should turn our attention to Duursma. I don't know if there's any way we could get him unless North pick Curtin & McKercher but if we somehow do it would be a steal for us.

If Curtin played more KPF, maybe I'd take him but doesn't seem like he can play #1 key back which is a worry cause we don't just need him floating in defense given what DBG has shown and how McCabe plays as well. Sicily will have to retire early if we just get too many intercept defenders and no one to really shut down opposition key forwards.

 

[The German Hunter]

In what world would a team trade Pick 3 for a Future first that at best will be roughly the same.

You would assume no one although Norf will never cease to amaze. F1 and a mil for Clarko should do it

 

[Crankyhawk]

If you're WC and you're dealing with North, you tell them "Picks 2 and 3 or go and get ****ed!".

2 and Norths non priority F1 (and maybe one of this years end of firsts) would also do it (no way are roos going to give 2 and 3)

 

[DrAbs]

In every draft there's always at least 1 and sometimes even 2 or 3 picks in the top 5 who're almost certainly bums. The only exception is 2018 (Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, King (StK), Rozee).

History says this is almost always the case. Who came after Hodge, Ball, and Judd? Who knows??

So what does that mean? Well, one of Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Curtin/Watson will be a bum.. yikes..

A lot is on the line with our pick. I think the top 2, maybe even 3 are safe in this crop but who knows about anything after Pick 3. Really could be anything.

Best case scenario - North pick 2 bums in the same draft.

 

[MrBeefSeven]

In every draft there's always at least 1 and sometimes even 2 or 3 picks in the top 5 who're almost certainly bums. The only exception is 2018 (Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, King (StK), Rozee).

History says this is almost always the case. Who came after Hodge, Ball, and Judd? Who knows??

So what does that mean? Well, one of Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Curtin/Watson will be a bum.. yikes..

A lot is on the line with our pick. I think the top 2, maybe even 3 are safe in this crop but who knows about anything after Pick 3. Really could be anything.

Best case scenario - North pick 2 bums in the same draft.

2001 is such a bad example so many great players in that draft. And just because a player isn't a legend doesn't mean they are a bum.
Even if that were true, it's been 22 years since then, I'd think clubs have gotten better at judging talent in that time.
Picking high increases your probability of drafting a gun. But whatever the case, you back yourself in if you believe in the talent.
Kind of silly to say that top 5 is a gamble but top 2/3 are safe. Who decides on the cutoff for something like that?

 

[Rushed_Behind]

Melbourne were so bad at drafting back then they decided to draft a QB with one of their first 3 selections.

(Yes I know Rodgers spelt differently)

KeeperLeaguer keeping the pedants at bay. ^^^^

 

[DrAbs]

2001 is such a bad example so many great players in that draft. And just because a player isn't a legend doesn't mean they are a bum.
Even if that were true, it's been 22 years since then, I'd think clubs have gotten better at judging talent in that time.
Picking high increases your probability of drafting a gun. But whatever the case, you back yourself in if you believe in the talent.
Kind of silly to say that top 5 is a gamble but top 2/3 are safe. Who decides on the cutoff for something like that?

Lol don't take the word "bum" too seriously - I just said it because we're all usually so hyped up about top 5 picks as becoming some kind of 250+ game superstar, when in reality it's almost always not the case. Not all these high end picks we talk about even get to 100 games let alone achieve anything notable in the game.

Top 2/3 isn't a cut off. I think it's almost a certainty (bar injury plagued career) that Walter & Reid will become superstars in this game. With the rest of them sure they're great talents but it's a lot harder to project how they'll go in the AFL. Not saying that I'm an expert at projecting but that's what it looks like from what I see.

Also I'll just point out - the great thing about drafts is that you could very well draft a superstar at a later pick. There have been numerous cases. I'm only making this point because the top 5 picks are always talked about so much, yet it doesn't always play out that way that they'll be great later on.

 

[Rob R]

Have we explored if Norf will be willing to trade their pick 3 for our F1.

We may think Norf are bottom 2 but they may be of the view we are the bottom 2 and expect to be in Top 10 given their "talents".

or even a swap of picks to give us chance of landing Duursma & then making a play for Pick 1.

3+F1 for 4+F1.

Norf has just shoved some of their few talls out the door, odds are they are targeting pick 1 or 2 again next year rather than move up the ladder

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[PT Bar None]

Top 10 was:

1. Hodge
2. Ball
3. Judd
4. Graham Polak - was handy until he got hit by a tram
5. Xav Clarke - alpha clogger archetype
6. Ash Sampi
7. David Hale
8. Mr Nadia Bartel
9. Luke Molan - Here is the first real "bum" - And it was Melbourne who did it
10. Sam Power

 

[Bugs1977]

You would assume no one although Norf will never cease to amaze. F1 and a mil for Clarko should do it

This post hasn't gotten enough love. Good one… very funny

 

[Bugs1977]

In every draft there's always at least 1 and sometimes even 2 or 3 picks in the top 5 who're almost certainly bums. The only exception is 2018 (Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, King (StK), Rozee).

History says this is almost always the case. Who came after Hodge, Ball, and Judd? Who knows??

So what does that mean? Well, one of Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Curtin/Watson will be a bum.. yikes..

A lot is on the line with our pick. I think the top 2, maybe even 3 are safe in this crop but who knows about anything after Pick 3. Really could be anything.

Best case scenario - North pick 2 bums in the same draft.

I mean who doesn't love a good top 5 whore

 

[TylerDurden]

You would assume no one although Norf will never cease to amaze. F1 and a mil for Clarko should do it

Gold

 

[DrAbs]

Top 10 was:

1. Hodge
2. Ball
3. Judd
4. Graham Polak - was handy until he got hit by a tram
5. Xav Clarke - alpha clogger archetype
6. Ash Sampi
7. David Hale
8. Mr Nadia Bartel
9. Luke Molan - Here is the first real "bum" - And it was Melbourne who did it
10. Sam Power

Polak, Clarke, Sampi, Molan, and Power. That's 5 out of the top 10, including 2 of the top 5. You can make an argument that all of them had "talent" in their draft years or at least I hope so because that's why they were selected that high. But look at their careers like it's got something like bum written all over it.

Harry McKay has achieved more in 7 years in the league than all of them put together. And this is someone who can't kick a drop punt from 10 metres out without hitting the top of the post.

I think talent-wise and due to increasing competitiveness, recent years bring out better player at the high end of drafts (but still there's always a few exceptions somewhere).

 

[WWSD]

I would pick Duursma (medium forward) or Watson (small forward) with pick 4. It’s clear we need more small/medium forwards.

The midfield is close to being set. Players like C.McDonald & Weddle will see minutes in the midfield next year. We have enough talent there now to focus on other areas of the ground.

Can anyone conform if we have 4 senior list spots to fill or is it 5 spots?

 

[LegendLewis]

Oh not for a second but this is what amuses me here ... it's been said repeatedly that we're not interested in downgrading four. Mark has said it, Rob has said as much. People here have said it, yet there's some still going on about the Dees & the Dogs and trade scenarios that would be better.

This draft has widely been labelled the 'super six' draft. Reid, Watson, McKercher, Walter, Curtin & Duursma are seen as clear standouts. That's not to say others like Read, Caddy, Sanders, O'Sullivan etc wont be stars but those first six are seen as pretty-much guaranteed A-graders.
We know this, every club knows this. That's why we wont downgrade our pick and that's why clubs behind us (and North & WC) continually ask the question. For the same reason we'll keep talking to WC & North until draft day ... just in case.

And although you can never say anything with 100% certainty in the draft, we're 99% certain WC wont downgrade to us and 99% North wont either for the same reason we're 99% certain we wont downgrade to Dogs, Dees or others.

Hey KL,
Thank you for the insights and updates. Really appreciated!

Was wondering if you have any insights on how Clay Tucker is progressing?

 

[Brishawk]

IMO Watson has the talent to be the best small forward since a certain #33

He isnt even close to rioli without the football…

 

[Brishawk]

I would pick Duursma (medium forward) or Watson (small forward) with pick 4. It’s clear we need more small/medium forwards.

The midfield is close to being set. Players like C.McDonald & Weddle will see minutes in the midfield next year. We have enough talent there now to focus on other areas of the ground.

Can anyone conform if we have 4 senior list spots to fill or is it 5 spots?

For the purposes of matching, we need to keep a list spot open for every pick we take into the draft. So we wont likely take more than 3 players in the draft regardless and maybe only two and then upgrade a rookie or two. Jai newcombe being the obvious candidate. Not sure that answers your question or not.