AFL Finals week two

[X_box_X]

Geelong $1.70
North Melbourne $2.20
Line 7.5
TAB

Fremantle $1.60
Port Adelaide $2.35
Line 11.5
TAB

Two favourites look good.

 

[The GOAT]

I reckon North will shorten throughout the week, will start sub $2 IMO.

 

[TheKanga]

This might be bias talking but I think we are a chance against Geelong.
We regain Boomer and Geelong could potentially be without Stevie J, Motlop & Christensen.

 

[Nothing]

Geelong/Freo multi.

 

[the_big_sav]

Port with a 24 head start looks good to me when the market comes out

 

[Jugada]

Freo/Dr Jekyll multi

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

obligatory cats/freo multi

 

[daniel_4tw]

Cats/Freo multi... As usual

 

[iluvparis]

Standard week 2 multi - already missed the early price FTL

 

[TheKanga]

Do you all still think Geelong will win without Stevie J, Motlop, Christensen & maybe Hawkins.
Though I suspect the tribunial won't suspend one of their darlings.

 

[banana_bus]

Do you all still think Geelong will win without Stevie J, Motlop, Christensen & maybe Hawkins.
Though I suspect the tribunial won't suspend one of their darlings.

Yes

 

[Jay-Z]

I love my roos but I agree with others. Have got on the Freo/Geelong multi and Geelong ATL

 

[kickazz]

Best bet of the year, losing Qual Finalists double. History suggests the price should be $1.17. Seems you can get around $2.70. I think they call that overs........

 

[Jugada]

Lol this idea of just backing the losing qualifying finalists regardless is so ridiculous. It's like putting a line through which ever horse draws barrier 18 in the Melbourne Cup regardless of form because it hasn't won in 90 years. Yes the losing qualifying finalists generally win because they are the better team for the season and playing at home but you still have to treat each game individually rather than basing them on pretty useless "historical" stats

Even in those Semis since 2005,

2005 Geelong are 1 Nick Davis away from winning (3 pts)
2007 Collingwood win
2009 Adelaide are a dodgy free kick to Jack Anthony in the last 30 sec away from winning (5 pts)
2010 Sydney are a goal away from winning (5 pts)
2011 Carlton go down in a thriller (3 pts)
2012 both semis decided by a couple goals

You swing 2 or 3 of those matches the other way and the stats don't look so great

 

[TheKanga]

The Dockers seem to have some injury concerns leading into the QF.
http://www.sportsfan.com.au/docker-...RT_5_DockerBarlowseenoncrutchesinPerth_080914

Maybe the Geelong/Port double could be the winner.

 

[TheKanga]

Yes

Fair enough, but I think with Boomer returning for us and us being stronger in the midfield.
We could really get an advantage if they are down a few players.

 

[banana_bus]

Fair enough, but I think with Boomer returning for us and us being stronger in the midfield.
We could really get an advantage if they are down a few players.

I was more meaning that most of those players you mentioned were gonna play.

 

[TheKanga]

I was more meaning that most of those players you mentioned were gonna play.

Ah okay, I think Hawkins & Christensen are the most likely to play.
Motlop seemed really sore on Friday and Stevie J was clearly underdone.
I heard if he plays he could do even more damage to his leg.

I hope Motlop & Christensen miss though, as they caused us problems in our last H&A game against them.

 

[The GOAT]

Lol this idea of just backing the losing qualifying finalists regardless is so ridiculous. It's like putting a line through which ever horse draws barrier 18 in the Melbourne Cup regardless of form because it hasn't won in 90 years. Yes the losing qualifying finalists generally win because they are the better team for the season and playing at home but you still have to treat each game individually rather than basing them on pretty useless "historical"

Great post. Most people aren't even looking at the odds. If Geelong and Freo were both $1.10 I think most people would still be backing that double

 

[Lensen]

Lol this idea of just backing the losing qualifying finalists regardless is so ridiculous. It's like putting a line through which ever horse draws barrier 18 in the Melbourne Cup regardless of form because it hasn't won in 90 years. Yes the losing qualifying finalists generally win because they are the better team for the season and playing at home but you still have to treat each game individually rather than basing them on pretty useless "historical" stats

Even in those Semis since 2005,

2005 Geelong are 1 Nick Davis away from winning (3 pts)
2007 Collingwood win
2009 Adelaide are a dodgy free kick to Jack Anthony in the last 30 sec away from winning (5 pts)
2010 Sydney are a goal away from winning (5 pts)
2011 Carlton go down in a thriller (3 pts)
2012 both semis decided by a couple goals

You swing 2 or 3 of those matches the other way and the stats don't look so great

Of course swing the draw and 3 point result the other way and it's a 100% job

Absolutely don't take it if both are $1.10 but the market always over reacts to week 1 finals

 

[kickazz]

Absolutely don't take it if both are $1.10 but the market always over reacts to week 1 finals

I think that is the key point really. Jugada is right to question the bare use of stats, the sample size is still probably not big enough.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Lol this idea of just backing the losing qualifying finalists regardless is so ridiculous. It's like putting a line through which ever horse draws barrier 18 in the Melbourne Cup regardless of form because it hasn't won in 90 years. Yes the losing qualifying finalists generally win because they are the better team for the season and playing at home but you still have to treat each game individually rather than basing them on pretty useless "historical" stats

Even in those Semis since 2005,

2005 Geelong are 1 Nick Davis away from winning (3 pts)
2007 Collingwood win
2009 Adelaide are a dodgy free kick to Jack Anthony in the last 30 sec away from winning (5 pts)
2010 Sydney are a goal away from winning (5 pts)
2011 Carlton go down in a thriller (3 pts)
2012 both semis decided by a couple goals

You swing 2 or 3 of those matches the other way and the stats don't look so great

Hear what you're saying, I remember the Carlton game and the non free to Walker that should've sealed it

But it was only a few weeks ago we saw Freo v Port, with Freo going full bang as they'll easily account for port again

Geelong are a different class to North Melbourne especially in finals mode , the current price of $1.60+ is way overs IMO

 

[SpecialComments]

I think Port Adelaide can beat Fremantle now.

No Johnson, McPharlin, Ballantyne jaw won't affect him. He carved up Impey a couple of weeks ago. Barlow was on crutches today, but he will be fine.

I reckon Schulz and Westhoff and dominate Dawson and Silvagni, mixed with Gray, Wingard up forward I think those two are better than Ballantyne, Walters.

 

[banana_bus]

Ballantyne and Walters are the best small forwards in the comp.

 

[TurboBreuster]

With the exception of the Port Tigers game the value in week 1 was in the 1-39 margin, as opposed to the line. This will continue this week, I'd be very surprised if either game went 40+.