AFL Round 19

[CamTinley]

Most of them are based on data I have analysed but i'll give some thoughts on a couple.

GWS/Rich is likely to go over I think because of what happened last time. Reiwoldt single handedly destroyed them. GWS are better these days granted, which is why I think they will score more than 41, but Richmond and reiwoldt will still run rampant. If GWS score say 60-70 (which is reasonable given their forward line of boyd and patton + goal kicking mids) then Richmond only need 120-130. Tigers are up and about at the moment, home crowd behind them, definitely capable of hitting that target.

Melb/Bris. Both teams have been tracking well below this tml for the past few rounds. Besides last week against the suns, lions don't score over 100. They just don't have the firepower up forward or the mid field strength to get it there. Last week was an anomaly because the suns sans ablett are a neafl team. Combine this with melbournes defensive mindset, and the fact they couldn't score more than 50 points against witches hats. Ok ill give them some credit, let's say 70 max. This means Brisbane need more than 95 to cover the TML over. Ain't happening. Plus it's melbourne in the winter, it'll probably rain.

Freo/Carl. Ok so the dockers got beaten by the rabble that is st kilda. Nay, they were flogged. Ross Lyon doesn't take that kind of s**t. The players will be shitting themselves in anticipation of doing their papa proud this week. In front of a subi crowd Carlton will be locked down. Waite and henderson will be useless. Their mids will be outclassed. Freos wall defence will hold strong. Carlton just won't be able to dent the scoreboard. Give them say a couple goals per quarter, 50-60 points for the game. Freo dont usdually score higher than 100-110. Only concern here for me is that Carlton totally implode and Freo cross the tml on their own lol

Good analysis, Tibor

 

[Keystone agony]

Riewoldt didn't have Tim Mohr and or P.Davis to contend with at the time.

 

[alex mcanulty]

I do enjoy a good old key board warrior sesh on this thread. Makes its more interesting. Keep it up lads

 

[free at last]

Combining freo at the line into Adelaide at the line. $100 @ $3.62.

I reckon my team will respond hard to the saints embarrassment.

 

[Keystone agony]

Just put
0.5U Franklin (coleman), Bontempelli (RS), J.Selwood (Charlie), Hawks GF @95

 

[Sketi]

$100 North @2.45 SU
$100 Brisbane @2.25 SU

My first thoughts as well (I'm assuming sportsbet with refund etc).

Surprised Melbourne are so short, even though it's their home game you could actually argue Brisbane have better form at Etihad. From memory Melbourne have lost their last 14(?) there dating back to 2009 or something?

Brisbane beat the Dogs there this year and had that upset win over the Bombers there last year. Suits their running game. They will come in over the week surely.

100 Brisbane H2H (Sportsbet) @ 2.20

Will get on North too, 2.40 is great. Should be close at the very least.

 

[Keystone agony]

My first thoughts as well (I'm assuming sportsbet with refund etc).

Surprised Melbourne are so short, even though it's their home game you could actually argue Brisbane have better form at Etihad. From memory Melbourne have lost their last 14(?) there dating back to 2009 or something?

Brisbane beat the Dogs there this year and had that upset win over the Bombers there last year. Suits their running game. They will come in over the week surely.

100 Brisbane H2H (Sportsbet) @ 2.20

Will get on North too, 2.40 is great. Should be close at the very least.

Spot on and actually good knowledge about Brisbane at Etihad and what Melbourne do there if correct. Which ive heard similar before.

Brisbane also performed pretty well against Richmond (who have hit form since) where they out played them but couldnt hit the scoreboard (game was at MCG however Brisbane are going along pretty nicely ATM and IMO have 2 ripping players onball ATM , maybe 3 if you include Martin whos just been about as good as it gets from a ruck in the past 6-8 weeks. Hanley and Rocky must be close to AA. There Mosquite fleet would really suit Etihad and all are in form. Aish can play and so can Mayes they need to perform as they add some real class and needed depth to the midfield. Lester is also quality and can play.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

any reason you chose the number 4 when making this stat up?

Oh FFS, if you are going to set up an alias, post in another couple of threads first, perhaps even on the board of the team you purportedly follow.

when your first post is on a non footy related board AND you use it to have a shot at another poster kids today...

 

[Big Fozza]

have tailed a few bets on here. so far i have:
Jaeger under 105.5 SC points 2u @ 1.65
Heppell under 108.5 SC 2u @ 1.65
Freo/Syd/ADL/HAW multi 5u @2.05
tgp mel/bne U165.5 5u @1.88

 

[Punting Deals]

Some opportunities to arb the sportsbet promo using pick your own line... otherwise only tip i've tailed is Hawthorn -34.5 v Western Bulldogs @ $1.91

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Gold Coast have still been excellent at Metricon against far superior opposition. Until thats debugged ill stay away.

Yeah but with Gablett...

 

[vho123]

Tailed some player exotics on here too, but my thoughts on tomorrow's game:

Fremantle v Carlton:

This game is a significant one for Fremantle not only to atone for last week's disastrous loss to the Saints, but they'll use this opportunity to launch their attack for a top 2 spot if they finish strongly for the season. The dockers are barely holding on to 4th spot just above Port Adelaide through percentage.

Carlton on the other hand are out of finals contention but their past 13 matches have seen them go 6-7 and have by and large been very competitive. Fremantle's home ground advantage suggests it won't be as significant as it usually is, as Carlton have won 6 of their past 9 games at PS, and 3 of these losses have been by under 11 points.

Fremantle welcome back Sandilands, Ballantyne and Hill, and their inclusions this week will go a long way to ensure them of a victory.

I don't see any value in the H2H but don't see Fremantle losing either. I think the Dockers will win but it won't be a thumping considering how competitive Carlton has been of late.

The other player bet I will take is Michael Barlow most possession Gr1. Carlton have alot of defensive-minded midfielders and Fyfe will cop a hard tag thus limiting his output, and Crowley will sit on either Murphy or Gibbs, so I'm backing Barlow to take this out.

5u - Carlton +37.5 @ $1.80 (Bet365)
2u - Barlow most disposals Gr1 @ $6.50 (Sportsbet)
1.5u - Jaeger under 105.5 SC points 2u @ $1.65 (Sportsbet)
1u - Heppell under 108.5 SC 2u @ $1.65 (Sportsbet)

 

[TI KING]

For anyone interested... Sportsbet have Carlton in the first half to kick less than 4.5 goals @ 2.00 ..Bet365 have Carlton to kick more than 4.5 goals @ 2.05

 

[foxy_dal]

1 unit Barlow over 104.5 DT @ $1.70
Averaging 108 and has scored over 96 in 7 of last 8 (4/8 on the actual line). His line is usually 108-110 so this is a bit lower than usual and up against the Blues at home he should be able to score around his average of 108.

1 unit Simpson under 97.5 DT @ $1.87
Averaging 95 but he has had a few really big scores which means he is more likely to score 80-90 and occasinoally have a huge score when he roams free across half back. Has gone under this line 10/17 and playing Freo away is pretty tough so I think the line should be lower than his average and median score of around 90.

Also having a crack at Barlow over Simpson in disposals at $1.80 (TAB) but only recording fantasy bets in my record. At Luxbet Barlows line is 26 ($1.70 and Simpson 24.5 ($1.87) which is actually what the are both averaging.

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Barlow over K.Simpson disposals @1.80 (TAB)

1U K.Simpson <97.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)

0.25U Carrazzo MDisp G2 @10 (Betstar) vs Hill, Pearce, Suban, Mzungu, Curnow, Mclean

K.Simpson avg 1.6 less disposals than Barlow. Simpson has only gone over that DT line 7/17 times this season. Expect freo to win easily which helps.

Also thinking about Fyfe under 103.5 but wont be jumping to quick will wait for a bigger line. Gibbs over 99.5 is also an ok bet has gone overs 10/17 this year

 

[Keystone agony]

Hahaha ^^ great minds think alike I think we typed them at the same time foxy_dal

 

[bisazc887]

Freo, sydney, adelaide, richmond, hawks to win paying 2 even. $2500 on that.


Freo, ess 1-19 pts, adelaide, richmond, hawks, $100 on at 10.65

 

[Squall]

Just read that Simpson lasts two DT scores against freo are 119 & 140

 

[Keystone agony]

have tailed a few bets on here. so far i have:
Jaeger under 105.5 SC points 2u @ 1.65
Heppell under 108.5 SC 2u @ 1.65
Freo/Syd/ADL/HAW multi 5u @2.05
tgp mel/bne U165.5 5u @1.88

Whos ur multi with?

 

[Keystone agony]

$100 Freo SU (Sportsbet special) @1.19

$300 Freo, Syd, Hawks, Adel/Adel @2.40

 

[CamTinley]

$700 Fremantle @ -33.5

 

[Zealbee]

Gee everyone is going large this week.

 

[Jay-Z]

For anyone interested... Sportsbet have Carlton in the first half to kick less than 4.5 goals @ 2.00 ..Bet365 have Carlton to kick more than 4.5 goals @ 2.05

Thanks. I don't really care about the 5 cent profit but I only joined Bet365 last week so I'm still working my way up to their ridiculous initial turnover requirement

 

[bruceharmes]

$700 Fremantle @ -33.5

serious ?

 

[Big Fozza]

Whos ur multi with?

Sportsbet - funnily enough the one that i'm most concerned about has the shortest odds...