April - Daily Punt

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A couple of early thoughts for Saturday.

CARLTON HOUSE now looks too short for me - would love to play at $8-$10 but for a horse that is still yet to win in Australia I am happy to risk him at the current price.

On Australian form THE OFFER looks close to over the line in the Cup. But if VDC and the Offer lined up in a match race at the Curragh, on European form VDC would be a $1.20 shot. What were the thoughts on her performance in the BMW. I think I'd be tempted to dip into her and OPINION at EW odds based purely on the European form. Because to be honest - this is an absolutely disgusting field - one of the weakest I have seen.
 
SATURDAY

Caulfield

Synthetic $4.40 SPECIAL - saw it win in the country, could be a gun

Our Voodoo Prince $3.20 SPECIAL

Double these two puppies up I reckon, maybe a treble into

River Delta ($1.90) also should win

Randwick

Rate the kiwi horse Bounding ($6)

The Offer wins the Sydney Cup ($2.80)...been on it all the way through

Gypsy Diamond sticking with it ($6.50)

It's a Dundeel last chance ever ($4.60)

Lucia Valentina ($2.50) terrible odds though so no load ups...sticking with it

Plucky Belle ($4.20) owes me one
 
The Offer, Lucia Valentina and Carlton House have all eased since final acceptances so if you are keen on them wait, I will be waiting but keen on them all.

The Offer and Lucia Valentina look extremely well placed to me and just a matter of waiting on the best price.

Carlton House is a deserving favorite but will drift with support for IADD and Silent Achiever, in my opinion Carlton House is in a position to completely dominate and dictate this race, if ridden correctly I wouldn't be surprised if he beats them easy, if ridden like he has been his last two he is still going to be hard to beat.

5 genuine winning chances in the race, Carlton House, Royal Descent, Sacred Falls, Silent Achiever and IADD, happy to risk the last two despite the fact that I backed Silent Achiever last time.

I will be having all up's with The Offer/Lucia Valentina into the 3 I like in the Queen Elizabeth so if they are alive I will back the other two as insurance.
 
Randwick:

R2: Engagement $8/$2.5 E/W

R3: Shaumari $4.50 win

R4: In Cahoots $13/3.70 E/W

R5: Gypsy Diamond win 1,2,3,4 tri and exacta

R6: Zanbagh $5 win (bar plates come off i think will run alot better)

R7: The Offer Special exacta with tupac amaru

R8: Boban $12/3.50 E/W

R9: Aerobatics $18/4.6 E/W

engagement/gypsydiamond/zanbagh/theoffer/boban in a treble win multi need three to win to make money

quaddie

1,2,3/4/1,2,3,4,5,6,10,11/1,2,5,6,7,12
 
Davedinkum, agree with Shaumari in Race 3, backed her today @ $5s, her debut was outstanding, professional, cruised through the HVY8 and was strong through the line, the figures she ran backed up what she did visually, very impressive and although I prefer a secondary performance for validation before getting carried away I think she is a big talent, I like the fact that she is the fresh horse with upside as opposed to most of these who have had long campaigns, drawn sticky but speed on so should slot in and be strong late.

Whether she wins or not I feel she is the best horse in he race long term, Peter Snowden said as much on RSN this morning, was one of his early 2yo's before going amiss.
 
I will be having all up's with The Offer/Lucia Valentina into the 3 I like in the Queen Elizabeth so if they are alive I will back the other two as insurance.
Pretty similar to what I'm planning. Very wary of Rising Romance up against LV and VDC in the Sydney Cup. Might also add Shaumari, Woodbine and Catkins, but haven't had a good look as of yet.

Also at this stage I like Safeguard and Cosmic Endeavour EW.
 
Pretty similar to what I'm planning. Very wary of Rising Romance up against LV and VDC in the Sydney Cup. Might also add Shaumari, Woodbine and Catkins, but haven't had a good look as of yet.

Also at this stage I like Safeguard and Cosmic Endeavour EW.

I have watched the replay of the Stormqueen many times over and Rising Rommance had a less than perfect passage down the straight where as Lucia Valentina had the dream but run the gap is too large to make up in my opinion, RR was a bit tight for room on 2 occasions but it was not as though she was knocked over or blocked for a run.

LV's last 800M was 8 lengths superior and even when RR got into clear room at the 200M LV went 1.5 lengths better the last 200M, a bridge too far for mine particularly given there is no reason why LV cannot improve again.
 
are you really putting 75 units on 2 horses? I guess your bank isn't the standard 100 units
Well it was going to be 97 units, but I added 25 units to IAD the place due to the fact I got 2.15 the place on a horse I think is a 1.40 chance to run a place.With Sharnee out it's 120 units, which is close to the maximum amount of units i've put on a card. I may also put on a couple of other bets if I find anything I like, but for now this is all I'll be betting on. If IAD and the Offer get up as I said early, I'm in for a massive day.
 
Weather forecast looks good for Sydney on Saturday. Good news for horses like Boban. A few stand out favorites throughout the day just having a quick look.
 

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