BRICS and the reduced power of the US dollar.

[nut]

Very interesting video on BRICS plans to create a new crypto system.
With the 2 largest populated and growing countries on planet onboard and other countries joining up, will the power the US uses over the world’s economies via the US dollar diminish?
Whats the threat to the world? Not much is being reported about this…

 

[The Sultan]

yeah all those countries seem trust worthy

 

[nut]

yeah all those countries seem trust worthy

I’m pretty sure BRICS has been formed because the US isn’t trust worthy …

 

[Crankyhawk]

I’m pretty sure BRICS has been formed because the US isn’t trust worthy …

The issue is whether the underlying economies can be trusted (as a reason to use the brics based currency). On superficial level I’d trust the Chinese and Indian economies, open to trusting the Brazilian, and skeptical about South Africa and Russia

 

[Mofra]

China hold billions in T Bonds IIRC - the largest holder of US currency outside of the US themselves.
This would be a very interesting move. It would also have potential low on effects on the current cycle of sanctions against the Russian ruble.

 

[nut]

China hold billions in T Bonds IIRC - the largest holder of US currency outside of the US themselves.
This would be a very interesting move. It would also have potential low on effects on the current cycle of sanctions against the Russian ruble.

This is the point …
The US lead sanctions against Russia become useless if countries stop trading in US dollars…
Russia‘s economy is growing faster than most European countries!!!!
So the only bargaining chip left is military…
If people don’t realise that the US is a dying empire than god help us… it’s going to get ugly IMO.

Trump has said he’ll stop the Ukraine war in 24 hours!!!

 

[Mofra]

Russia‘s economy is growing faster than most European countries!!!!
So the only bargaining chip left is military…
If people don’t realise that the US is a dying empire than god help us… it’s going to get ugly IMO.

Trump has said he’ll stop the Ukraine war in 24 hours!!!

Looking beyond the headline numbers, Russia's economy only shows growth due to military spending and heavy borrowing. It's a very, very sick economy.

Much like Germany adopting the Euro as the BRIICS keep the currency artificially low to ensure their manufacturing base is globally competitive, I'd imagine this is China's plan too.

Trump says a lot of things. Most can be safely disregarded as brain farts.

 

[nut]

Looking beyond the headline numbers, Russia's economy only shows growth due to military spending and heavy borrowing. It's a very, very sick economy.

Is it US level sick? 34 trillion in debt…

Russia is aligned with the 2 largest populations via BRICS…
They have a long tradition of trading with these 2 countries..

They know how to play the long game.

There is no amount of propaganda from the US that is going to stop mathematics …

Europe will have to make a choice soon… it’s crippling them.

How is the US going to build trust back?

If you could choose Russins debt v US debt compared to GDP
Who would you choose…

Remember the US survives with large debit because of US dollar trade!!!!

 

[Ballarat Bob]

Russia playing the long game ?

• Starting a war in Ukraine which is driving them to fund the war from their reserves and having sanctions applied which is significantly impacting their ability to trade internationally.
• Losing export markets in Europe for their gas and oil supplies. Even if the war stopped tomorrow there is no guarantee the European markets would revert back to Russian suppliers.
• Driving a significant number of the workforce either into the Ukrainian meat grinder or overseas.
• Low birthrate with potential to impact the workforce and productivity.
• Highly corrupt with an authoritarian government.

The main reason this is getting limited press coverage is that it is basically a press release from Russia with virtually no information on when this could be implemented and adopted.
The US is still the biggest consumer market in the world and will be for some time. China and India are not going to rock the boat with their biggest trading partner.
Crypto so far has been very volatile which if applied in this instance would be catastrophic if the values lurched up and down , I haven't seen anything around how this could be mitigated ?
Not saying this can't be done or it couldn't work but it's there is very little behind it at the moment.

 

[nut]

Russia playing the long game ?

• Starting a war in Ukraine which is driving them to fund the war from their reserves and having sanctions applied which is significantly impacting their ability to trade internationally.
• Losing export markets in Europe for their gas and oil supplies. Even if the war stopped tomorrow there is no guarantee the European markets would revert back to Russian suppliers.
• Driving a significant number of the workforce either into the Ukrainian meat grinder or overseas.
• Low birthrate with potential to impact the workforce and productivity.
• Highly corrupt with an authoritarian government.

The main reason this is getting limited press coverage is that it is basically a press release from Russia with virtually no information on when this could be implemented and adopted.
The US is still the biggest consumer market in the world and will be for some time. China and India are not going to rock the boat with their biggest trading partner.
Crypto so far has been very volatile which if applied in this instance would be catastrophic if the values lurched up and down , I haven't seen anything around how this could be mitigated ?
Not saying this can't be done or it couldn't work but it's there is very little behind it at the moment.

The Russian economy in 2023 outpaced both the United States and Europe in terms of growth, increasing in size by 3.6% despite being subject to a wide array of powerful economic sanctions and being cut off from major global markets.

 

[Mofra]

The Russian economy in 2023 outpaced both the United States and Europe in terms of growth, increasing in size by 3.6% despite being subject to a wide array of powerful economic sanctions and being cut off from major global markets.

You need to look bring the headline figures and see what that was made up of.

Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win

Western military support for Ukraine is more important than ever.

theconversation.com

China will soon regard Russia as a mere vassal state, if it doesn't already.
The US has massive structural economic issues but that doesn't automatically mean Russia is ok.

 

[Zidane98]

The Russian economy in 2023 outpaced both the United States and Europe in terms of growth, increasing in size by 3.6% despite being subject to a wide array of powerful economic sanctions and being cut off from major global markets.

Putin is burning through the national wealth fund to fund the war and prop up the economy. Very easy to create economic growth in that scenario and have the country geared towards war. He even had to use gold to pay Iran for military equipment.

It's a terrible position to be in and the person who suffers most will be the everyday Russian.

Also, China's trade relationship with the west will always be more important to it than any trade it has with Russia.

 

[nut]

You need to look bring the headline figures and see what that was made up of.

Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win

Western military support for Ukraine is more important than ever.

theconversation.com

China will soon regard Russia as a mere vassal state, if it doesn't already.
The US has massive structural economic issues but that doesn't automatically mean Russia is ok.

So the US debt of 34 trillion is ok, and the world is happy for the US to keep printing money.. gotcha

 

[nut]

Putin is burning through the national wealth fund to fund the war and prop up the economy. Very easy to create economic growth in that scenario and have the country geared towards war. He even had to use gold to pay Iran for military equipment.

It's a terrible position to be in and the person who suffers most will be the everyday Russian.

Also, China's trade relationship with the west will always be more important to it than any trade it has with Russia.

People are suffering in the US… 124% GDP debt. No wealth fund.. but a printer on steroids.

The point I’m making is, despite all the US economic sanctions etc.. Russia is growing faster than Europe… and has small debt v GDP of 25%.

Do you think Europe will ignore cheap energy from Russia once the war is over?

 

[Zidane98]

People are suffering in the US… 124% GDP debt. No wealth fund.. but a printer on steroids.

The point I’m making is, despite all the US economic sanctions etc.. Russia is growing faster than Europe… and has small debt v GDP of 25%.

Do you think Europe will ignore cheap energy from Russia once the war is over?

The only reason there is any growth in Russia is due to the wartime economy footing and Putin's plundering of the national wealth fund.

Gas is an obsolete fuel. It's on the way out. Yes, Europe will largely ignore it.

 

[nut]

The only reason there is any growth in Russia is due to the wartime economy footing and Putin's plundering of the national wealth fund.

Gas is an obsolete fuel. It's on the way out. Yes, Europe will largely ignore it.

34% of Europe’s energy requirements were from gas in 2022…. 1/3!!!

 

[Zidane98]

34% of Europe’s energy requirements were from gas in 2022…. 1/3!!!

I'm not sure you understand the future of natural gas. It's on the way out worldwide. Russia's natural resource income future is bleak. If Putin could stop being a genocidal fascist for just a minute he would realise it is better for Russia to be able to trade resources freely on the international market to prop up the Russian economy.

Instead Urals oil trades continually at least $10 / bl under Brent crude (sometimes much more) due to pricing caps. Instead of burning $4 billion monthly of Russia's national wealth fund Putin could fund toilets for all of Russia by withdrawing from Ukraine and becoming a responsible trading partner again.

The way things are going Russia is going to end up as a subservient state to China reliant on it for supply in exchange for cheap natural resources (the Chinese are quite happy to plunder outdated natural resources like coal & gas).

In any case of Europe's current gas needs (which will reduce year on year) only 8% now come from Russia:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/

This was Russia's biggest gas market and it has been obliterated.

 

[nut]

I'm not sure you understand the future of natural gas. It's on the way out worldwide. Russia's natural resource income future is bleak. If Putin could stop being a genocidal fascist for just a minute he would realise it is better for Russia to be able to trade resources freely on the international market to prop up the Russian economy.

Instead Urals oil trades continually at least $10 / bl under Brent crude (sometimes much more) due to pricing caps. Instead of burning $4 billion monthly of Russia's national wealth fund Putin could fund toilets for all of Russia by withdrawing from Ukraine and becoming a responsible trading partner again.

The way things are going Russia is going to end up as a subservient state to China reliant on it for supply in exchange for cheap natural resources (the Chinese are quite happy to plunder outdated natural resources like coal & gas).

In any case of Europe's current gas needs (which will reduce year on year) only 8% now come from Russia:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/

This was Russia's biggest gas market and it has been obliterated.

Im not sure you understand how important gas is in Europe now and how cold it gets.

From your own article….

Why is gas so important for the EU and for Europeans?​

In 2022, the 27 countries of the European Union consumed over 350 (billion cubic meters) of gas – 13% less than in 2021. Gas is mainly used for power generation, household heating and industrial processes. Over 30% of households in the EU are heated using gas.

 

[Zidane98]

Im not sure you understand how important gas is in Europe now and how cold it gets.

From your own article….

Why is gas so important for the EU and for Europeans?​

In 2022, the 27 countries of the European Union consumed over 350 (billion cubic meters) of gas – 13% less than in 2021. Gas is mainly used for power generation, household heating and industrial processes. Over 30% of households in the EU are heated using gas.

I understand gas very well. I've worked for utility providers in Vic who distribute it in the past.

I can tell you that there is a sustained push away from natural gas as a residential energy in the developed world. So much so that in Australia many states have a ban on gas connections in new build properties.


This is also happening in Europe. You can expect a year on year decrease on consumption by around 10% in Europe. This is a near certainty. Within 20 years the vast majority of gas usage in Europe will be industrial. It's not an energy that a nation would be advised to stake its future on.

Of the remaining demand that is now easily covered by North African, Dutch & Norweigen fields plus LNG shipped from Qatar. Russia will never have Europe as a large gas customer again.

 

[nut]

I understand gas very well. I've worked for utility providers in Vic who distribute it in the past.

I can tell you that there is a sustained push away from natural gas as a residential energy in the developed world. So much so that in Australia many states have a ban on gas connections in new build properties.


This is also happening in Europe. You can expect a year on year decrease on consumption by around 10% in Europe. This is a near certainty. Within 20 years the vast majority of gas usage in Europe will be industrial. It's not an energy that a nation would be advised to stake its future on.

Of the remaining demand that is now easily covered by North African, Dutch & Norweigen fields plus LNG shipped from Qatar. Russia will never have Europe as a large gas customer again.

If you say so …

 

[Zidane98]

If you say so …

It's not if I say so. Europe removing reliance on Russian gas is something that's already happening.

 

[Ballarat Bob]

It's not if I say so. Europe removing reliance on Russian gas is something that's already happening.

Exactly ...why would you suddenly revert back to Russian supply anyway even if the war stopped ? There is plenty of gas elsewhere and the European nations would be far better off dealing with stable governments rather than a hostile Russia.

 

[Zidane98]

Exactly ...why would you suddenly revert back to Russian supply anyway even if the war stopped ? There is plenty of gas elsewhere and the European nations would be far better off dealing with stable governments rather than a hostile Russia.

Yep, gas is in abundance worldwide.


It is no longer the energy of choice for residential properties anymore in the developed world. The biggest customers going forward will be developing nations and China who are happy to take it on the cheap but only if Russia coughs up for the infrastructure to supply it. The Chinese will eventually be buying the majority of Russian gas and will bend the Russians over price wise.

 

[nut]

So the entire European energy crisis is just make believe ….

Are you guys saying that energy companies are blaming Russia for the increase in energy costs.. and that’s a lie?

 

[Gethelred]

People are suffering in the US… 124% GDP debt. No wealth fund.. but a printer on steroids.

The point I’m making is, despite all the US economic sanctions etc.. Russia is growing faster than Europe… and has small debt v GDP of 25%.

Do you think Europe will ignore cheap energy from Russia once the war is over?

Russia tried to keep Europe out of their invasion using their supply of gas; in the time since, each Eurozone nation that was reliant on that energy (and suffered shortfalls as a consequence) has since diversified their supplies, to ensure that such could not be done to extort them again.

So yes, Europe will absolutely ignore cheap energy from Russia. They know it comes with strings attached.