LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
First two I like lol, the other one is a long shot.
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I wouldn't be so confident.
I have Buddy on 20 which is BELOW your estimate. There is no way he is below 20. JPK hasn't polled well before, even in his so called 'big' games. It wouldn't shock me.
No way..??
He had MUCH better years in 2008 and 2011 and only managed 20 votes.. He kicked almost 102 goals in 2008 as opposed to 67 this year and had less standouts (Sewell and Mitchell only) stealing votes.
I don't think there would be many cases, if any, of a player having 40 touches, 20+ contested and a goal in a winning side and not getting 3 votes. Was the clear standout of that game from Buddy, Jack and Bird.
I have him aggressively on 21 with 22 being his absolute ceiling.
Considering Ablett only played 14 complete games and six of those were losses, there is absolutely a way that others can catch him.Ablett/Selwood quinella.
But it has been belted off the charts since it opened- $3.50 into $2.75 but it is still the most obvious market and with Brownlow jeez you can lose a lot. I always say go for a safe saver which this is. There is absolutely no way any of the others catch Ablett/Selwood. They should be at least 3-4 behind these two at the end, they are 3 behind on my count.
He also had proven vote getters in the Hawthorn side that year and the year he kicked 102...Roughy kicked 75! He only has JPK and Parker to and extent stealing votes. His big games have been bigger this year. His season was better in 2008, his big games are better this season.
He also had proven vote getters in the Hawthorn side that year and the year he kicked 102...Roughy kicked 75! He only has JPK and Parker to and extent stealing votes. His big games have been bigger this year. His season was better in 2008, his big games are better this season.
I reckon the top 5 will be: Ablett, Boak, Selwood, Kennedy and Lewis.
BrownlowGuru how does it pan out that Selwood and Gray are the two players most likely to place (and win), however they aren't the most likely quinella?
Yeah, for mine something has gone wrong here. Where is the Selwood/Gray combo?
BrownlowGuru how does it pan out that Selwood and Gray are the two players most likely to place (and win), however they aren't the most likely quinella?
My model actually predicts Fyfe to top the voting, although I suspect the umpires do go shallow on votes for players they know are ineligible. Note that Rockliff is also expected to poll well.
any statistical backing to the suspension thing? I know in past years people have said the umpires take it into account, but the evidence would suggest otherwise.
often players can take one good season before they start polling well, unless they have an absolute breakout like Ablett in 2007, who polled well but didn't win.Boak won't finish top 5.
Statistically Boak's season looks better than Gray's but if you actually watch the game and have any knowledge about footy (which I hope the umps do) Gray has been the standout player for Port in 75% of games.
That's not me saying Boak isn't good by any shot. But Robbie just has that X factor which seems to make him stand out.
often players can take one good season before they start polling well, unless they have an absolute breakout like Ablett in 2007, who polled well but didn't win.
Gray might not poll as well as people think he will, particularly in the first half of the season whilst his reputation was still catching up to his performances.
That, on top of that fact he isn't a pure midfielder, could see him under perform a fair bit I reckon. But it's all speculation to Monday.
BrownlowGuru's predictions over the years have been pretty solid.
often players can take one good season before they start polling well, unless they have an absolute breakout like Ablett in 2007, who polled well but didn't win.
Gray might not poll as well as people think he will, particularly in the first half of the season whilst his reputation was still catching up to his performances.
That, on top of that fact he isn't a pure midfielder, could see him under perform a fair bit I reckon. But it's all speculation to Monday.
BrownlowGuru's predictions over the years have been pretty solid.
Does anyone know on the TAB quinella's are they in correct order? E.g Im looking for Selwood/Gray but can only find Gray/Selwood, is this because they are the same thing or the market is simply not out yet
The thing that these guys winning is they stand out and kick goals. Gray does the exact same thing, stands out a s**t load and kicks a lot of goals. He had 400 disposals and 32 goals in 2011 so its not like he hasn't had a good season, just nothing on this level yet.
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