Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)

[Dunn - Well Done]

I havnt seen many people backing Hayes in to win group 2. Most people think hes going to beat Goddard in which they have placed him to win Stkildas votes. The only other tough opposition i see in that group is Sandilands who i think i gave votes to favourably and only came up with 17. Alot of people also think he's a monty to beat Goodes aswell who is also in that group.

Hes paying 5-1

Unsure of this can be multied into NDS to win group 4 aswell??

Im liking
Thompson - Watson - Brown - Sylvia/Green - Boak - Selwood (H2H) - Judd (H2H) - Jack/Chapman = 387ish (Could also add NDS/mitchell to make it $1550/$2130)

 

[Mudeo]

Finally been able to do my bets seeing as i have only just got my Visa card.
Pity cause i have missed all the value on Boak and maybe would have added Jack to a few of mine but didnt think it was worth it.
So hopefully my first year of this can give me a nice little profit, thanks to all the people that have made time to do counts seeing as some of us have other commitments (would love to sit there and watch every game every week) and lets all hope for a good year.

 

[Pinnell]

Some new H2H's over at betchoice (but also a repeat of some of TAB's, albeit with slightly better value) ie Cassisi V Cornes . And they can be multied. ...

Goddard, Brendan (STK) vs Judd, Chris (CAR) / Hayes, Lenny (STK) vs Goodes, Adam (SYD) / Hodge, Luke (HAW) vs Pendlebury, Scott (COL) / Harvey, Brent (KANG) vs Selwood, Joel (GEEL) / Cornes, Kane (POR) vs Cassisi, Domenic (POR)

Judd, Chris (CAR) to win (2.04) / Hayes, Lenny (STK) to win (1.80) / Pendlebury, Scott (COL) to win (2.07) / Selwood, Joel (GEEL) to win (1.80) / Cassisi, Domenic (POR) to win (1.94) $100.00
@ 26.542832 Accepted

 

[Lion of Panjshir]

Some new categories from our enemies at Centrebet. No multis. Pendlebury for 16+ looks OK. Hodge for 21 or less also looks tasty.

ABLETT VOTES - |Player Performance - (1)
26 Votes or More 2.40
25 Votes or Less 1.54

GODDARD VOTES - Player Performance - (1)
17 Votes or More 1.80
16 Votes or Less 1.95

HODGE VOTES - Player Performance - (1)
22 Votes or More 1.88
21 Votes or Less 1.88

JUDD VOTES - Player Performance - (1)
19 Votes or More 1.72
18 Votes or Less 2.08

PENDLEBURY VOTES - Player Performance - (1)
16 Votes or More 1.70
15 Votes or Less 2.10

SWAN VOTES - Player Performance - (1)
26 Votes or More 1.70
25 Votes or Less 2.10

SANDILANDS VOTES - Player Performance - (1)
16 Votes or More 1.72
15 Votes or Less 2.08

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I know this has been gone over many times and too many times. But im starting to think about using S.Black in some of my new multis as cover for brown. I havnt done the lions count but ive done a few other teams and he keeps popping up with votes.

Just from doing 4 other teams and also from reading through the entire forum (B2010 and B2010 2)
R7 - 3 votes (vs freo)
R14 - 1 vote (vs Carl)
R15 - 1 vote (vs Stkilda) possible 2
R21 - looking at his stats in the win against dons 2 votes

Im sure there are many other games he could poll in aswell, as they are pretty much all i have come across from doing other team votes.

Avg over 21 votes a season in the last 3 years, didnt realise he got 19 votes last year. Avg around 26 poss a game, its made me slightly nervey because i have basically used Brown as an anchor in most my bets.

 

[pmalcolm1984]

I know this has been gone over many times and too many times. But im starting to think about using S.Black in some of my new multis as cover for brown. I havnt done the lions count but ive done a few other teams and he keeps popping up with votes.

Just from doing 4 other teams and also from reading through the entire forum (B2010 and B2010 2)
R7 - 3 votes (vs freo)
R14 - 1 vote (vs Carl)
R15 - 1 vote (vs Stkilda) possible 2
R21 - looking at his stats in the win against dons 2 votes

Im sure there are many other games he could poll in aswell, as they are pretty much all i have come across from doing other team votes.

Avg over 21 votes a season in the last 3 years, didnt realise he got 19 votes last year. Avg around 26 poss a game, its made me slightly nervey because i have basically used Brown as an anchor in most my bets.

FWIW, I've stayed clear of Brisbane, not because I don't think Brown will win but on a value call.

Blacks' votes since 02, 136, 113 in wins. Played 18 games this year, 12 losses. Average of 1.2 votes in wins, 0.25 in losses.

Best games I reckon were against Carlton (beaten by 55), Freo (rolled by 13) and Adelaide (won by 7). In that Saints game, Hayes and Dal Santo were good (I think Montagna was BOG) and if you believe posters on here those guys are solid pollers. He can jag votes when he has no god give right to but where do you draw the line?

I have Black on an average of 5.6 and Brown 9.8. Don't mean to mess with your head but I have Brennan as a bigger threat... They're just my numbers and they are VERY different to others here.

 

[rowie343]

FWIW, I have brown on 8 votes after the first 3 rounds and a minimum of 12 overall. Should be sufficient to won brisbanes votes.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

FWIW, I've stayed clear of Brisbane, not because I don't think Brown will win but on a value call.

Blacks' votes since 02, 136, 113 in wins. Played 18 games this year, 12 losses. Average of 1.2 votes in wins, 0.25 in losses.

Best games I reckon were against Carlton (beaten by 55), Freo (rolled by 13) and Adelaide (won by 7). In that Saints game, Hayes and Dal Santo were good (I think Montagna was BOG) and if you believe posters on here those guys are solid pollers. He can jag votes when he has no god give right to but where do you draw the line?

I have Black on an average of 5.6 and Brown 9.8. Don't mean to mess with your head but I have Brennan as a bigger threat... They're just my numbers and they are VERY different to others here.

In that game saints Brisbane were up by 3 goals at half time, even at 3Qtr time and only lost by 2 goals. If saints manage6 votes for that game than i dont think its fair.

I can easily see Black polling
R7 - 3
R14 - 1
R15 - 2
R21 - 2

that's without looking at other games. Has played pretty damn well in there wins aswell.

 

[Johanpetro]

I read every page of each Brownlow thread last season, and won over $450 from advice and tips from everyone as well as my own research (woulda been more if Swan had of got most votes for the pies).
Havent read anything this season....but I know im about to get sucked back into it...Ah great.
Whats the hot tip this year fellas haha? Lenny Hayes was the big money winner for me last year.

 

[mattybomb22]

In that game saints Brisbane were up by 3 goals at half time, even at 3Qtr time and only lost by 2 goals. If saints manage6 votes for that game than i dont think its fair.

I can easily see Black polling
R7 - 3
R14 - 1
R15 - 2
R21 - 2

that's without looking at other games. Has played pretty damn well in there wins aswell.

As a Lions supporter can say you are very close with this post.
However Browny has 4 BOG's so surely too much for even the legend Blackie to pick up . last year they tied but Lions had a better year .

 

[Notorious_29]

I read every page of each Brownlow thread last season, and won over $450 from advice and tips from everyone as well as my own research (woulda been more if Swan had of got most votes for the pies).
Havent read anything this season....but I know im about to get sucked back into it...Ah great.
Whats the hot tip this year fellas haha? Lenny Hayes was the big money winner for me last year.

Frawley to take out the Melbourne votes. Started as favourite but to our amazement keeps drifting out. Get on big before the TAB smarten up.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

As a Lions supporter can say you are very close with this post.
However Browny has 4 BOG's so surely too much for even the legend Blackie to pick up . last year they tied but Lions had a better year .

Yeah i dont think hes got enough firepower to beat Brown. But i can only see 3 BOGs for Brown. If i could ask where do you have his 4 BOGs?

Other games from further analyzing the votes, he could possibily poll in these games

Rounds 1,10,18,19,20

But i guess if he polls singles in all these games than thats 5 + 8 from his big 4 games = 13

Which i can see that beating Brown by 1, but everything has to go right for blackie

 

[rocketmac360]

Frawley to take out the Melbourne votes. Started as favourite but to our amazement keeps drifting out. Get on big before the TAB smarten up.

I don't understand the reasoning behind posting misinformation. At best whoever reads your post ignores you, and at worst they lose money following your advice.

What are you trying to achieve exactly?

 

[Viva La Cats]

Frawley to take out the Melbourne votes. Started as favourite but to our amazement keeps drifting out. Get on big before the TAB smarten up.

I don't understand the reasoning behind posting misinformation. At best whoever reads your post ignores you, and at worst they lose money following your advice.

What are you trying to achieve exactly?

Jezz take it easy, pretty sure it was a joke.

Anyone who has read the thread at all during the year or knows anything about this years votes for Melbourne would know this.

So before you have a crack at a one of the most regular posters on this thread take a deep breathe and don't.

 

[jamzee]

Jezz take it easy, pretty sure it was a joke.

Anyone who has read the thread at all during the year or knows anything about this years votes for Melbourne would know this.

So before you have a crack at a one of the most regular posters on this thread take a deep breathe and don't.

This. Plus pretty sure he's just sick of people mooching off all the hard work that's been done, and not even taking the time to read over the thread that would point you in the right direction.

 

[echelon22]

I don't understand the reasoning behind posting misinformation. At best whoever reads your post ignores you, and at worst they lose money following your advice.

What are you trying to achieve exactly?

Option 3) Notorious_29 is a TAB double agent

 

[dylan123]

Frawley to take out the Melbourne votes. Started as favourite but to our amazement keeps drifting out. Get on big before the TAB smarten up.

Quoted for

Just noticed that Pav has dropped from $67 to $27 for leader at the end of round 11 at luxbet, might have already been said but just in case it hasn't...

Pretty big drop either way and his odds have not changed at sportinbet at all.

 

[s1bbald]

Option 3) Notorious_29 is a TAB double agent

Not anymore he's not!

 

[kgspa1]

Quoted for

Just noticed that Pav has dropped from $67 to $27 for leader at the end of round 11 at luxbet, might have already been said but just in case it hasn't...

Pretty big drop either way and his odds have not changed at sportinbet at all.

yeah i put a silly $5 on him at $67, so hopefully that pays haha

 

[StringyDog]

My bets made up of combinations of below;

Locks - Need majority of these guys to get up as heavily invested

Team Votes - Adelaide - Thompson
Team Votes - Essendon - Watson
HH - Judd vs Goddard – Judd
Group 3 - Chapman/Jack vs Franklin/Bolton/Rioli

These guys for very tidy profit

Team Votes - Fremantle - Sandilands
Team Votes - Brisbane - Brown
Team Votes - Melbourne - Sylvia/Green (more on Sylvia)
Team Votes - Sydney - Goodes
Group 4 - Dal Santo vs Brown/Hall/Mitchell/Pavlich

These guys for much larger profit

Team Votes - West Coast - Priddis
Team Votes - Richmond - Deledio
Team Votes - Port Adelaide - Boak
Team Votes - St Kilda - Hayes/Montagna (more on Hayes)

Speculative picks for don't have to work for a couple of years profits

Team Votes - Richmond - Tuck
Team Votes - WB Other - Cooney/Boyd/Lake/Cross/Hall (Griffen/Gia)
Team Votes - PA Other - Pearce/Boak/Cassisi/Cornes/Gray (Rodan)

Others;
Quinella Swan/Judd, Ablett/Judd
Judd Place
Round 11 Leader - Pavlich
Round 11 Leader - Judd

 

[DT_35]

My bets made up of combinations of below;

Locks - Need majority of these guys to get up as heavily invested

Team Votes - Adelaide - Thompson
Team Votes - Essendon - Watson
Watson/Thompson look pretty safe.
Group 3 - Chapman/Jack vs Franklin/Bolton/Rioli
I'm on both Chappy/Jack for Group 3.
HH - Judd vs Goddard – Judd
Goddard will poll & poll well...toss of the coin here

These guys for very tidy profit

Team Votes - Fremantle - Sandilands
Yep
Team Votes - Brisbane - Brown
Brown looks good.
Team Votes - Melbourne - Sylvia/Green (more on Sylvia)
I'm on Green to get Melbournes'.
Team Votes - Sydney - Goodes
Goodes to beat Jack by 1 or 2 votes
Group 4 - Dal Santo vs Brown/Hall/Mitchell/Pavlich
Dal Santo @ $5.50 to win that group is an absolute steal. Hall won't vote, Pavlich I can't see getting enough votes. Mitchell could be a chance as well as Brown. Dal Santo will finish on around 15. I got Brown finishing on 12/13 and not so sure about Mitchell.

These guys for much larger profit

Team Votes - West Coast - Priddis
Either him or LeCras
Team Votes - Richmond - Deledio
Either him or Riewoldt. Leaning towards Riewoldt as he has kicked big bags on a few occasions.
Team Votes - Port Adelaide - Boak
Pretty confident on Boak, he's been smashed lately. Originally started at $4.50!
Team Votes - St Kilda - Hayes/Montagna (more on Hayes)
I'm on Goddard/Montagna. Have Hayes finishing on 15 with Montagna around the same, whilst Goddard on 21.

Like the bolded ones, iffy on the underlined ones.

 

[maxlad]

DT_35 i cant understand how its possible goddard can beat judd......

if you think goddard will poll 21 max.. what do you have judd on.

he will poll more than 21

 

[DT_35]

DT_35 i cant understand how its possible goddard can beat judd......

if you think goddard will poll 21 max.. what do you have judd on.

he will poll more than 21

And I've got Judd on 20 give or take.

 

[DT_35]

Question:

Chapman to win Group 3 $3.50
Goddard to def Judd $1.75
Selwood def Harvey $1.87
Saints def Dogs $1.24

Can I put this multi on?

If not, what legs clash?

 

[benchwarmers]

Question:

Chapman to win Group 3 $3.50
Goddard to def Judd $1.75
Selwood def Harvey $1.87
Saints def Dogs $1.24

Can I put this multi on?

If not, what legs clash?

I don't think you will be able to do this multi because of the Saints and Goddard both being in it, I could be wrong though because the saints playing doesnt have anything to do with the brownlow.