List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

Updated (20/3/24) the status of all contracts for people’s reference : Overall List - 44 Players : Main List(37), Rookie List(5), Cat B(2) Contracted until the end of 2027 (2) : Tom Barrass (8/10/95) - Signed a 5 year extension (2023,2024,2025,2026,2027) on an existing contract set to...

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Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

2023 Provisional AFL Draft Order (updated live throughout the season)

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Kegs15]

It's not him.

1. We didn't have a top 10 pick for a decade
2. We didn't have young up and comers in our 2018 flag. i.e. Geelong had a young Selwood and few others in their 2007-2011 treble. We had Dom Sheed.
3. What picks we had, we traded for Jetta, Cripps, Yeo, Redden, and TK.

We won a flag from the above. How do you think we aren't going to bottom out?

For TK, we were still in the flag window. It would be remiss if we didn't go all in. TK cost us 14, 24, 33 in 2019, and 18 in 2020. Basically loose change. A fair chunk of it, but no top 10 picks.

Keep this in mind:

After pick 13 these are the odds:
Approx. 0.007% chance of getting an A+ (about 1:130)
Approx. 0.03% chance of getting an A (about 1:30)
Approx. 0.07% chance of getting a solid player (about 1:15)

If you go past pick 13, the numbers aren't pretty. You have to be at the top of the draft. Past 14, you might jag a gun here and there. But it's pretty much churn and burn to find role players.

But what if we take the band where the TK picks are? (#14 - #33)
Approx. 0.02% chance of getting an A+ (about 1:60)
Approx. 0.07% chance of getting an A (about 1:15)
Approx. 0.16% chance of getting a solid player (about 1:6)

The chances of getting a haul better than TK with picks 14, 18, 24, 33, is less than even.

We need to put this TK thing to bed. We went all out because we were in the flag window, we didn't win a flag, now we have an elite outside player at the opportunity cost of probably nothing better.

As for the rest of the list, all our picks were in the 14 to 80 range. The odds are above. They're not pretty.

Our list is where it's at for a good reason. Not through bad drafting/trading decisions, but because we had to go all in while the opportunity was there.

The silver gold lining to all this? Reid, Hewett, Ginbey.



I agree. In the short term we (and other clubs) should be lobbying the AFL. If nothing happens, then we may as well work the system. But judging by Scott and Rossy, there's no shortage of people in club land who have serious reservations about PPs and bailouts. They need to be pushing this right up until Tas come in.

It's a good post overall and this is going to show the absolute nitpicker in me but think you've comboed your percentages and decimals.

An 0.007% chance is about a 1 in 14200.
An 0.02% chance is exactly 1 in 5000.

Think for the point you were making those would be an 0.7% chance or a 2% chance etc. Or a 0.007 in 1 chance.

Also curious where you got the general stats from (whether it's just a vibe or whether there's a resource out there judging how many A grade players have been picked after point X etc.)

I do overall agree with A) putting the TK thing to bed and B) that it was the right choice at the time (so as you say shouldn't be shocked/overly angry at bottoming out) but still think it's not worth underestimating picks between late teens-30s. It's been the range we've been disproportionately poor in drafting/developing over the last decade or so with your O'Neill types etc. We've been alright at nailing the few top end picks we've had and done pretty well with the late/rookie swings all things considered but that mid range is still important. Lots of 2018 was set up with Darling at 26, Lycett 29, Ryan at 26 etc.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Surprised by the fact Matt Flynn hasnt made his choice yet. Almost feels like he may stay at GWS and Preuss goes back to somewhere in Melbourne

 

[Ghossein]

any info on this?

Waterman parks trade talk to ink NEW Eagles deal

Jake Waterman has agreed to a two-year deal to remain at West Coast just a day after deciding to test the trade market.

www.perthnow.com.au

 

[Monocle]

Surprised by the fact Matt Flynn hasnt made his choice yet. Almost feels like he may stay at GWS and Preuss goes back to somewhere in Melbourne

Probably wants to celebrate Mad Monday and the F&B with his teammates before the announcement goes public.

In all likelihood the decision and commitment has been made and the news passed on to WC.

It’s not critical that the announcement hasn’t been made public yet.

 

[WCE_Phill]

Surprised by the fact Matt Flynn hasnt made his choice yet. Almost feels like he may stay at GWS and Preuss goes back to somewhere in Melbourne

I thought Ryan Daniels put a tweet over the weekend that he's selected WC as his preferred club?

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I’d have a chat to gws about Haynes. A two year stop gap.

Would have to see us move up from 19 to their pick 13 at a minimum. If not trying to move up from our 30’s pick for pick 13 and taking his salary.

 

[shoutsatclouds]

I partly agree, we do tend to forget about Venables though

Saw a lot to like about the way that J Cameron got stuck in. Loved a run-down tackle, and had some real wheels on him.

Was disappointing that he didn’t have the minerals to stick around…

 

[Keys]

Saw a lot to like about the way that J Cameron got stuck in. Loved a run-down tackle, and had some real wheels on him.

Was disappointing that he didn’t have the minerals to stick around…

Didn’t have the minerals is a particularly harsh take on why he’s no longer playing football

The guy had bleeding on the brain, had questions marks on his post concussion treatment due largely to a fraudulent AFL “expert” and still suffers lingering effects to this day despite his best efforts to return

Saying he didn’t have the minerals is pretty much bullshit

Edit : I erroneously thought the post was about Venables but as has been pointed out it’s referencing Jarrod Cameron who did indeed not have the minerals unfortunately

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Didn’t have the minerals is a particularly harsh take on why he’s no longer playing football

The guy had bleeding on the brain, had questions marks on his post concussion treatment due largely to a fraudulent AFL “expert” and still suffers lingering effects to this day despite his best efforts to return

Saying he didn’t have the minerals is pretty much bullshit

Well when you put it like that....

 

[pantskyle]

Saw a lot to like about the way that J Cameron got stuck in. Loved a run-down tackle, and had some real wheels on him.

Was disappointing that he didn’t have the minerals to stick around…

This is certainly an interesting take.

 

[kempy]

Didn’t have the minerals is a particularly harsh take on why he’s no longer playing football

The guy had bleeding on the brain, had questions marks on his post concussion treatment due largely to a fraudulent AFL “expert” and still suffers lingering effects to this day despite his best efforts to return

Saying he didn’t have the minerals is pretty much bullshit

I think he means Cameron.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Doashuey]

Didn’t have the minerals is a particularly harsh take on why he’s no longer playing football

The guy had bleeding on the brain, had questions marks on his post concussion treatment due largely to a fraudulent AFL “expert” and still suffers lingering effects to this day despite his best efforts to return

Saying he didn’t have the minerals is pretty much bullshit

Edit : I erroneously thought the post was about Venables but as has been pointed out it’s referencing Jarrod Cameron who did indeed not have the minerals unfortunately

Old man shouts at shoutsatclouds

 

[Keys]

Old man shouts at Shouts at Clouds

Old Man Inception

 

[pantskyle]

I think he means Cameron.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

That makes more sense.

 

[Truckosaurus]

any info on this?

Waterman parks trade talk to ink NEW Eagles deal

Jake Waterman has agreed to a two-year deal to remain at West Coast just a day after deciding to test the trade market.

www.perthnow.com.au

I don’t think anyone's expressed any strong opinions about it yet

 

[Mop]

I remember being really surprised when Jarrod Cameron

39

Jarrod Cameron

Age

23

Ht

182cm

Wt

70kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.3

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

3.6

5star

G

1.3

5star

D

5.0

1star

K

3.5

1star

HB

1.5

1star

M

0.5

1star

T

2.5

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.2

5star

G

2.0

5star

walked away. He had all the tools, just didn't happen for him.

It was mental health related right? His initial time away from which he didn't return

 

[kane249]

I remember being really surprised when Jarrod Cameron walked away. He had all the tools, just didn't happen for him.

It was mental health related right? His initial time away from which he didn't return

Didn't have the drive to play AFL which is fair enough, it's not for everyone.
Possible pressure of being compared to older brother Charlie as well?

He was back playing seniors for Swan Districts earlier this year, but was playing ressies before the end of the season

 

[Mop]

Didn't have the drive to play AFL which is fair enough, it's not for everyone.
Possible pressure of being compared to older brother Charlie as well?

He was back playing seniors for Swan Districts earlier this year, but was playing ressies before the end of the season

I can't say I fancy the perennial spotlight of the AFL media myself. Happy being a cat posting about football on the internet myself.

The hard part is that he could have been very very good.

 

[Avalor]

Didn’t have the minerals is a particularly harsh take on why he’s no longer playing football

The guy had bleeding on the brain, had questions marks on his post concussion treatment due largely to a fraudulent AFL “expert” and still suffers lingering effects to this day despite his best efforts to return

Saying he didn’t have the minerals is pretty much bullshit

Edit : I erroneously thought the post was about Venables but as has been pointed out it’s referencing Jarrod Cameron who did indeed not have the minerals unfortunately

Yep, not enough dawg in the boy, was a shame!

 

[BartBart]

Completely agree with the narrative around Kelly being ill informed & the reasons why the deal needed to be executed. Also understand your maths and what chance of bringing success those picks make which many choose to ignore.

I do however feel WC paid too much in the Kelly trade. 4 picks between 14 and 33 to me represented too much for a player who was out of contract and who advised Geelong he was heading home & had already chosen WC as his destination club. The sheer volume of picks seemed then and in hindsight incongruent with the situation that existed - almost pity shown to Geelong when none needed to have been.
Personally I think one of those 2 middle picks handed over was the unnecessary excess.

Whether WC got anything of value from that selection we will never know, but IMO it should have been an option for those at the draft table.

The other problem was they missed out in the first place by picking Brander.

 

[Obeanie1]

The AFL are encouraging North to be deliberately bad under this package..

How?

The picks are not tied to their ladder position.

And I'd suggest this is the last assistance rhey will get. If they cant improve with everyrhing else they have now its transfer the licence to Tassie in 4 years time.

 

[Ghossein]

The other problem was they missed out in the first place by picking Brander.

Imagine if we just drafted Allen, Ryan, and Kelly all at once.

Could've even just taken Ryan a year earlier via the rookie draft, instead of the speculative Gorter.

But there will still be some that say mature age projects are a waste of time.

 

[Ghossein]

If they cant improve with everyrhing else they have now its transfer the licence to Tassie in 4 years time.

Was this confirmed?

 

[plays tall 1]

It's not him.

1. We didn't have a top 10 pick for a decade
2. We didn't have young up and comers in our 2018 flag. i.e. Geelong had a young Selwood and few others in their 2007-2011 treble. We had Dom Sheed.
3. What picks we had, we traded for Jetta, Cripps, Yeo, Redden, and TK.

We won a flag from the above. How do you think we aren't going to bottom out?

For TK, we were still in the flag window. It would be remiss if we didn't go all in. TK cost us 14, 24, 33 in 2019, and 18 in 2020. Basically loose change. A fair chunk of it, but no top 10 picks.

Keep this in mind:

After pick 13 these are the odds:
Approx. 0.007% chance of getting an A+ (about 1:130)
Approx. 0.03% chance of getting an A (about 1:30)
Approx. 0.07% chance of getting a solid player (about 1:15)

If you go past pick 13, the numbers aren't pretty. You have to be at the top of the draft. Past 14, you might jag a gun here and there. But it's pretty much churn and burn to find role players.

But what if we take the band where the TK picks are? (#14 - #33)
Approx. 0.02% chance of getting an A+ (about 1:60)
Approx. 0.07% chance of getting an A (about 1:15)
Approx. 0.16% chance of getting a solid player (about 1:6)

The chances of getting a haul better than TK with picks 14, 18, 24, 33, is less than even.

We need to put this TK thing to bed. We went all out because we were in the flag window, we didn't win a flag, now we have an elite outside player at the opportunity cost of probably nothing better.

As for the rest of the list, all our picks were in the 14 to 80 range. The odds are above. They're not pretty.

Our list is where it's at for a good reason. Not through bad drafting/trading decisions, but because we had to go all in while the opportunity was there.

The silver gold lining to all this? Reid, Hewett, Ginbey.



I agree. In the short term we (and other clubs) should be lobbying the AFL. If nothing happens, then we may as well work the system. But judging by Scott and Rossy, there's no shortage of people in club land who have serious reservations about PPs and bailouts. They need to be pushing this right up until Tas come in.

Where did you get those stats from? They don’t look right.

How are the ratings A+, A etc defined?

 

[Obeanie1]

Was this confirmed?

Its my opinion on what should happen.

I can only confirm that Im afraid.