Unofficial Preview Early Thoughts - Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Grand Final Edition

[fpm84]

You will know more about Lewis when you see whether he attends the Brownlow tonight or does his usual spot on AFL360 tomorrow night.

If his corkie is severe enough to have him at home on the couch, or in a hyperbaric chamber a la Steve Johnson in GF week '11, he will definitely be restricted on Saturday.

One question for you guys - everyone knows Buddy is a big game player, but are you worried the emotion of playing against his old club may get to him, more than if he was playing any other team? You know the Hawks supporters will be booing him all day. It's interesting how inaccurate he's been in two games v Hawks this season when he's been reasonably accurate for the rest of the season. Is that coincidence or something else?

Anyway, good luck

 

[Bonz]

You will know more about Lewis when you see whether he attends the Brownlow tonight or does his usual spot on AFL360 tomorrow night.

If his corkie is severe enough to have him at home on the couch, or in a hyperbaric chamber a la Steve Johnson in GF week '11, he will definitely be restricted on Saturday.

One question for you guys - everyone knows Buddy is a big game player, but are you worried the emotion of playing against his old club may get to him, more than if he was playing any other team? You know the Hawks supporters will be booing him all day. It's interesting how inaccurate he's been in two games v Hawks this season when he's been reasonably accurate for the rest of the season. Is that coincidence or something else?

Anyway, good luck

Don't think the emotion of playing Hawthorn will get to him much on Saturday, He has played them twice earlier this year so hopefully he is slowly getting used to it, that being said it did affect him earlier in the season.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

You will know more about Lewis when you see whether he attends the Brownlow tonight or does his usual spot on AFL360 tomorrow night.

If his corkie is severe enough to have him at home on the couch, or in a hyperbaric chamber a la Steve Johnson in GF week '11, he will definitely be restricted on Saturday.

One question for you guys - everyone knows Buddy is a big game player, but are you worried the emotion of playing against his old club may get to him, more than if he was playing any other team? You know the Hawks supporters will be booing him all day. It's interesting how inaccurate he's been in two games v Hawks this season when he's been reasonably accurate for the rest of the season. Is that coincidence or something else?

Anyway, good luck

Frankins always a 50/50 kick, I'm worried when he plays the bulldogs let alone a grand final.
he'll either kill them or shank them.

 

[Bonz]

This weeks edition of The Swans Bigfooty Podcast has an real in depth preview of the upcoming Grand Final against Hawthorn!!! Plus a cracking prediction from Sir Swans


Listen on the thread here ----> http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bring-on-the-hawks-the-swans-bigfooty-podcast-s02e30.1077803/

 

[fpm84]

Don't think the emotion of playing Hawthorn will get to him much on Saturday, He has played them twice earlier this year so hopefully he is slowly getting used to it, that being said it did affect him earlier in the season.

Yeah, fair enough. I remember when you beat them at ANZ earlier this year... he was so dominant but kicked so poorly.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if for all the hype and attention Buddy will get this week, Tippett or Goodes kick more goals than him on the weekend anyway. Your spread of goalkickers is really impressive and underrated.

 

[The King!]

This weeks edition of The Swans Bigfooty Podcast has an real in depth preview of the upcoming Grand Final against Hawthorn!!! Plus a cracking prediction from Sir Swans


Listen on the thread here ----> http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bring-on-the-hawks-the-swans-bigfooty-podcast-s02e30.1077803/

ill have to listen for the cracking prediciton

 

[replicant]

I don't but cant see the VC missing a GF with a corky.

He declared himself 100% to play.

I remember a couple of our guys having a "corky"... which turned into bone bruising... 4-6 weeks. That one to Lewis was right on the bone at the top of the knee. It'll be stiff at the very least.

 

[Tuco]

You will know more about Lewis when you see whether he attends the Brownlow tonight or does his usual spot on AFL360 tomorrow night.

If his corkie is severe enough to have him at home on the couch, or in a hyperbaric chamber a la Steve Johnson in GF week '11, he will definitely be restricted on Saturday.

One question for you guys - everyone knows Buddy is a big game player, but are you worried the emotion of playing against his old club may get to him, more than if he was playing any other team? You know the Hawks supporters will be booing him all day. It's interesting how inaccurate he's been in two games v Hawks this season when he's been reasonably accurate for the rest of the season. Is that coincidence or something else?

Anyway, good luck

He's had two cracks at the Hawks now. Performed very well in front of a home crowd - he was errant. But he had them all night. Performed his role, but had a down night overall in round 18. But if we'd squeaked over the line, we might be looking at that performance in a very different light.

An argument can be made that crowd support has an influence in H&A. The thing about Grand finals though, is that the crowd is usually a 50/50 split at best. And the Swans supporters are always very vocal. So I don't see a crowd affected performance. Plenty of AFL members would hate to see the Hawks win a GF.

It will really come down to pressure acts by the Hawks. But Buddy has been doing very well against quality defenders all year.

The Hawks actually match up fairly poorly against our talls. Always have. Where they nab us is in the mids, if they get a chain on our midfield scores, and reduce the quality of the service, and get their rebound game going, they'll go a long way to winning.

But Buddy is actually a fairly clutch player. Never realised just how much he revels under pressure until I began watching him week in week out.

Buddy will go alright. The emotion you ask about won't be a factor imho.

 

[alanlau34]

haha, ok, I've said my bit, Reid's stats have sucked this year, and contibuting Mitchell to the slowness of those first 3 games is a little rich.

Reid is awesome, but he goes missing regularly, and his stats confirm this. He is a what-if safety net and flexibility option, not an attack. Agree to disagree.

Again, more contestant ball winning, tackles, clearances, kicks and handballs, and McVeigh would provide more than Reid in defense (apart from defense against talls in the air). Thats the whole crux of my argument, and the stats strongly support this.

For the third time, agree to disagree. Im done buddy. Enjoy the week.

This seems to be your main flaw in your argument. Given Rough, Hale, Ceglar/McEvoy, Gunston, it would be pretty important to have a tall swing back to fill the hole in the last 5 mins of a quarter. Also given Pyke rucking one-out for much of the game, Reid plays an important structural role in allowing Tippett to stay deep. Reid was moving well on Friday night, took some great marks on the wing to link up with our forward line.

If we were playing Port with their shorter fwd line and Lobbe sole rucking - I might possibly even slightly agree with you.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

And the Swans supporters are always very vocal.

Please convey this to the opposition wanykars on the MB, all of whom seem to believe that the Swans crowd's noise wouldn't even rise above the cacophony of latte frothers, tinkling chardonnay glasses and the soft pad of espadrilles on corporate-box axminster.

 

[RW]

And for some good news on a Monday morning... the squiggle has spoken, and it's tipping us!!*

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...-squiggly-lines.1022679/page-82#post-35246979

*The squiggle's tip for the Grand Final varies depending on which version of the predictor you use, but using the predictors that have historically been the most accurate at tipping Grand Finals, we are tipped to win narrowly under all but one of them.

 

[McRobie]

Firstly, congrats to the Swans for making another grand final.

- Lewis is suffering a hamstring problem and I think he might struggle to be 100% fit by next week
- As for Franklin, the only danger to the Swans forward line is if Lake plays well and when he does while playing on Franklin he usually has Franklin covered.
- Overall Hawthorn were lucky to scrape through against Port.. Another few minutes would have seen Port run over them. They look tired, their depth will be tested. Rioli wont have the impact that Hawthorn fans are hoping, he was very rusty yesterday in the VFL GF and there's no way IMO that he's going to be able to capture 100% fitness and form in 6 days.

Overall I think you have Hawthorn covered. Good luck next Saturday

I thought it was a corky to the quad area? Do you have alternative info? God I hope your right.

 

[_Mike_]

I thought it was a corky to the quad area? Do you have alternative info? God I hope your right.

Just speculation.. for a corky he looked pretty sore.

 

[Tuco]

Please convey this to the opposition wanykars on the MB, all of whom seem to believe that the Swans crowd's noise wouldn't even rise above the cacophony of latte frothers, tinkling chardonnay glasses and the soft pad of espadrilles on corporate-box axminster.

Felt like a home game for Sydney in 2012. Definitely was a home game in 2005. Was 50/50 at best in '06. That is all.

 

[TripleB]

Just on Buddy and the emotional side, I'd be more concerned if it was an early final and the emotion caused him to overstep the line, copping a week or two courtesy of the MRP.

I can live with him missing Rd 1 v GWS next year if it helps us snag a flag...

 

[AimingforNo6]

My guess, Cegler out for McEvoy.

Lewis to play but if not than the obvious replacement is Sewell

If they pick Cyril, they are desperate.

 

[Punts]

The matchups on Hill/Smith with be crucial too I think. Outside run was where we got exposed last time.

Who do you reckon goes to Hill? Cunnigham? Head to head with Jetta?

I hope Harry goes to Smith and Jetta v Hill.

Smith hits the score board more , 19 possies and 3 goals in R18

Imo he is far more dangerous

 

[The King!]

GAME PREVIEW DAY 1- move delete modify however tell me if its rubbish i dont care


Its hard to decide how to approach this review. I thought in the end I will add to it each day, id like to see the line ups before I get bogged down in match ups for instance.


Given I volunteered to do this review in about April, I think right now there is little call for humility and hubris. We are favorites and justifiably so, lets embrace it and enjoy the week. I have a lot of respect for the Hawthorn Football Club. They have a proud history. Sure historically the VFL gave them Stkildas zone which gave them a treasure chest of players and led to success in the 70s and 80s. Is this success artificial then, nah not saying that at all, they just took full advantage of every advantage given to them.

Sure Clarkson has had some nice draft picks early, sure their best forward is a priority pick, sure they took Lake, Burgoyne and Hale, sure they get 17 home games, sure they get money from the Tasmanian government, sure their fans have grown from the zone success before, but again its just kudos to this great club for taking full advantage from advantages others didn’t get.

Now where was I, yeah I respect Hawthorn, but their fans? Nah they seem to all have a weekly meeting, because the majority of them aren’t capable of discussing the game, they just want to bang on about COLA or crap on about adversity. From what I can gather Hawthorn have travelled to the middle east, played in mine fields and had to pick from about 3 players all years due to the lost limbs of their stars, give me a spell. What should be a pretty good rivalry between fans is ruined by delusion.

Given the crap we will cop win or lose, ive decided to go for broke and declare us dead certs with my previewing of this game I am disrespectful and hurt any opposition fans feelings, then boo hoo.

The preview will be as follows.

Monday : Previous meetings and recent history, Injury clouds, Brownlow chances for each side and the weather

Tuesday News updates eg injuries, the form of each team in 2014, the top 5 players from each club and who is better oh and the weather

Wednesday: news updates, key stats, X factors for each side, the bottom 6 from each side compared oh and the weather

Thursday: News updates, tactics, what we can learn from contemplating history and a look at the weather

Friday: news updates mainly team selection a look at the match ups , predictions and of course the weather.


So onto Today.


PREVIOUS MEETINGS AND RECENT HISTORY

Head to head

Overall

Played 158 Sydney 68 Hawthorn 87 Drawn 2

Finals 6 Sydney 2 Hawthorn 4

Grand Finals 1 Sydney 1 Hawthorn 0

Last 5 Sydney 1 Hawthorn 4

Last 5 at the MCG Sydney 1 Hawthorn 4


Basically history is bleak for Sydney, except Hawthorn would probably trade a lot of those wins for the recent Swans MCG triumph. Interesting despite finish first we will travel to play them, equalization hasn’t kicked in yet hey .

I will look at the two meetings from this year in more depth later in the week.


INJURY CLOUDS


For the Swans there are three I can think of. Sam Reid is obviously the main concern, I poo poo his decoy role, but against Hawthorn I can see the benefit more so than other opposition. I also thought our forward structure was spot on v north, so would be a shame to change it, but if he is half fit he shouldn’t play. I have not heard anything on his injury but expect him to play.

Heath Grundy had an awkward moment with his leg bending but he played on and I suspect he is “fine” though I think he is still carrying the injury from the other week as well.

Nick Malceski played with his hammy and will play this week, but he didn’t stretch out fully and would probably rest if it were a round 4 or 5 game.


For the Hawks their biggest concern is their Vice Captain Jordan Lewis with his corky, but he is a hard mongrel and I suspect they would need to chop the leg off before he missed. Obviously their big question seems to be whether to Pick Cyril. Who cares, he is overrated and has never done much against Sydney, I recall us picking Tippett against the hawks being a sign of desperation according to Hawks fans, not sure what bringing Cyril back for a grand final would be.


BROWNLOW


As it is the brownlow tonight I see a few potential chances from the two sides.

Josh Kennedy- poles well and should be a real contender but will his missed games at the end cost him?

Lance Franklin- in the ultimate lol at hawthorn it would be great if he won, he won several games off his own boot and it would cap off a great year but personally I don’t see it happening.

Jordan Lewis- he has been terrific this year and IMHO should win the hawks best and fairest, hard not to like the way he plays would be a deserving winner.


Weather

According to BOM


Saturday 27 September

Summary

Min 9

Max 19

Partly cloudy.

Melbourne area

Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds.

 

[The King!]

Don't think the emotion of playing Hawthorn will get to him much on Saturday, He has played them twice earlier this year so hopefully he is slowly getting used to it, that being said it did affect him earlier in the season.

Lets face facts Buddy destroyed the hawks this year, he just kicked poorly.

We all know he left because of the fans, he likes the players, but deep down he wants to kick the ball straight into their cheer squad and decapitate a few flogs

 

[theta]

This seems to be your main flaw in your argument. Given Rough, Hale, Ceglar/McEvoy, Gunston, it would be pretty important to have a tall swing back to fill the hole in the last 5 mins of a quarter. Also given Pyke rucking one-out for much of the game, Reid plays an important structural role in allowing Tippett to stay deep. Reid was moving well on Friday night, took some great marks on the wing to link up with our forward line.

If we were playing Port with their shorter fwd line and Lobbe sole rucking - I might possibly even slightly agree with you.

Its only an idea if Reid isnt fit. Im not sold on Biggs/Towers to perform in a GF.

Also we didnt have all the extra height in 2012, so no Reid wouldnt be the end of the world.

 

[The King!]

maybe we dust LRT off if reid isnt fit..........























* not serious

 

[theta]

*shudder

 

[The King!]

Its only an idea if Reid isnt fit. Im not sold on Biggs/Towers to perform in a GF.

Also we didnt have all the extra height in 2012, so no Reid wouldnt be the end of the world.

The thing is Clarkson will spend more time picking his outfit for saturday than worrying about Reid anyway.

I would still prefer if Reid is not fit to change the structure and go another small.

Not like Towers can push back anyway.

 

[robbieando]

What about the Weatherzone forecast

 

[alanlau34]

maybe we dust LRT off if reid isnt fit..........























* not serious

Get on him for the Norm