Essendon players and their fresher legs....?

[Wild Bill]

A hypothetical.... as that's all we can do before the season proper starts. I don't want to go in to the ASADA findings as that would deem this thread to be in the wrong place, and it's not.

Now that it appears Essendons 34 players are legal to play (save for any appeal), is there anyone else here feeling that Essendons slow start to the season could actually prove beneficial come August, September?

Think about it. They've had a lot less lead up and are probably ill-prepared compared to many others clubs. This may be a deficit in the first few weeks of competition, but playing Sydney and Hawthorn mean that they're clubs they would likely lose against anyway. If Essendon lost to Brisbane and St Kilda early on due to being unprepared you would have reason to be upset, but against Sydney and Hawthorn you take that on the chin.

Could Essendon come out fresher at the end of the year and put rights to a Hollywood blockbuster plot line?

You're 50/50 to finish 8th. The extra run in your legs are just as likely to help the players get to the bar and back quickly on mad Monday than finals.

 

[Ari]

You're 50/50 to finish 8th. The extra run in your legs are just as likely to help the players get to the bar and back quickly on mad Monday than finals.

We've been 50/50 to finish 8th for the past 6 years.

 

[Sherrinator]

How so? Going easy on Essendon or going hard on them?

We lost to GWS last year Rd 1. I don't think we can start bringing out the conspiracy theories.

Knowing full well that they would lose those games regardless and allowing them to treat those games as moot practice matches.

 

[Wild Bill]

We've been 50/50 to finish 8th for the past 6 years.

Which makes it tough - you don't finish lower enough for the top picks. Continuing to finish middle of the road is a hard round about to get off.

 

[Ari]

Knowing full well that they would lose those games regardless and allowing them to treat those games as moot practice matches.

Kind of correct. That is particularly true if Essendon were to go in with the replacements and lost their first 5 games.

But the same could be said the other way too. Essendon get smashed by 150 points, does that not look bad for the AFL and potentially reflect on their broadcasting rights agreement?

 

[Sttew]

A hypothetical.... as that's all we can do before the season proper starts. I don't want to go in to the ASADA findings as that would deem this thread to be in the wrong place, and it's not.

Now that it appears Essendons 34 players are legal to play (save for any appeal), is there anyone else here feeling that Essendons slow start to the season could actually prove beneficial come August, September?

Not me

 

[HTPunter]

Much more pertinent to Essendons fortunes will be if they can fix up their forward line. Ryder came 4th in 2014 in their goalkicking, Chapman (another year older) finished 3rd. So you're looking at Daniher and Carlisle, two incredibly talented young forwards. Carlisle has been thrown about in the last 2 years end-to-end, it will be interesting to see if he can settle in the forward line under Hird or undergoes more positional/structural changes. So it's up to a 21 y.o 26 gamer in Joe Daniher to fix their woes...maybe in 3 years, if he breaks out in 2015 and solves Essendons woes then I'll be impressed.

There's also the ruck issue. Giles is clearly a 2nd/3rd tier ruck - going up against the likes of Mumford, Maric, Sandi, Naitanui, Goldstein, Jacobs, Martin...I don't think he's that level. Bellchambers is a good ruck/forward but can he hold down a number 1 ruck spot and can he stay on the park?

I think these factors hold the answers to Essendons fortunes than whether or not playing 3 pre-season games (which about 1/4 of the side played anyway) does. Port Adelaide rested Boak, Gray, Lobbe and co for 1 match only - I think, right now, Port can be considered in the top 2 or 3 teams in the comp in terms of setting the 'benchmark' for fitness, peaking, recovery, planning a season out...if there were benefits to be had from having an easy pre-season and then finishing hard, they'd be doing it.

More likely Essendon are rusty, lose to Sydney/Hawthorn (but probably put up a fight because of the mental desire to push hard to prove themselves, more so than Sydney/Hawthorn who know where they want to be in 25 weeks), and get into the swing of things mid-season.

I have no evidence to back it up but my general idea is that clubs tend to prefer to burst out of the blocks, get the wins on board, then ease off mid-season and build towards finals. This could explain why the 'lower' clubs can burn out quickly at the end of a season - go hard for as long as they can, which is anywhere between 12-16 rounds, and then fall apart.

The other factor is injuries. Richmond showed last year it matters nought what kind of preparation you have - if players the quality of Rance, Maric and Deledio are missing games in the hard part of your draw, good luck...if Essendon go injury free in 'easy runs', then they will probably rack up the wins regardless of whether provisional suspensions ever occured (i.e. Rnds 14-20, only play 2 finals sides from 2014, with only non-Etihad games being GWS @ Spotless and Melbourne @ MCG - Essendon would look to go minimum 5-2 here and need to have close to a full list). If injuries occur at the wrong time, it doesn't matter whether you played 3 or 0 pre-season games, your season is buggered.

 

[Augustine]

I have tis funny feeling essendon will win round one. notorious strong starters vs notorious slow starters. playing off emotion. ANZ doesn't have the same unbeatable fortress nature that the scg has.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Wont be fit until round 6 and they'll be 0-5 by then

 

[Sttew]

I have tis funny feeling essendon will win round one. notorious strong starters vs notorious slow starters. playing off emotion. ANZ doesn't have the same unbeatable fortress nature that the scg has.

And look how the Swans played R1 last year!

 

[HTPunter]

I have tis funny feeling essendon will win round one. notorious strong starters vs notorious slow starters. playing off emotion. ANZ doesn't have the same unbeatable fortress nature that the scg has.

Wouldn't surprise me. Only thing stopping me tipping Essendon is Lance Franklin. Also a slow starter, he enjoys his off-seasons...

 

[Spitta09]

They are an average side as it is and with no match fitness will be easy beats for the first few weeks

 

[cinderella man]

They are an average side as it is and with no match fitness will be easy beats for the first few weeks

Agree. If the Swans lose this game regardless of their slow start reputation they can GAGF. Hawthorn will be like a pig at the troth Rd 2. They will devour Bones and all.

As Bricktop said, " Feed em to the pigs Erroll "

 

[DaVillaBlues]

When was the last time Essendon won a final ? Also Paddy Ryder is a massive loss. Psychologically every other club will be gunning for them.

Assuming the ASADA appeal fails and their players are allowed to play the season, they have enough talent to finish top 6, not sure if they will be able to make a prelim though, semi final birth is realistically their best result in my opinion as it stands now .. (Depending on if Giles or McKernan can give Bellchambers adequate ruck support)

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Wel sydney just lost a grand final so complacency shouldn't be an issue.

But most of us (sydney players included) would have been expected a team of ring ins.

 

[Ambrosia]

Much more pertinent to Essendons fortunes will be if they can fix up their forward line. Ryder came 4th in 2014 in their goalkicking, Chapman (another year older) finished 3rd. So you're looking at Daniher and Carlisle, two incredibly talented young forwards. Carlisle has been thrown about in the last 2 years end-to-end, it will be interesting to see if he can settle in the forward line under Hird or undergoes more positional/structural changes. So it's up to a 21 y.o 26 gamer in Joe Daniher to fix their woes...maybe in 3 years, if he breaks out in 2015 and solves Essendons woes then I'll be impressed.

There's also the ruck issue. Giles is clearly a 2nd/3rd tier ruck - going up against the likes of Mumford, Maric, Sandi, Naitanui, Goldstein, Jacobs, Martin...I don't think he's that level. Bellchambers is a good ruck/forward but can he hold down a number 1 ruck spot and can he stay on the park?

I think these factors hold the answers to Essendons fortunes than whether or not playing 3 pre-season games (which about 1/4 of the side played anyway) does. Port Adelaide rested Boak, Gray, Lobbe and co for 1 match only - I think, right now, Port can be considered in the top 2 or 3 teams in the comp in terms of setting the 'benchmark' for fitness, peaking, recovery, planning a season out...if there were benefits to be had from having an easy pre-season and then finishing hard, they'd be doing it.

More likely Essendon are rusty, lose to Sydney/Hawthorn (but probably put up a fight because of the mental desire to push hard to prove themselves, more so than Sydney/Hawthorn who know where they want to be in 25 weeks), and get into the swing of things mid-season.

I have no evidence to back it up but my general idea is that clubs tend to prefer to burst out of the blocks, get the wins on board, then ease off mid-season and build towards finals. This could explain why the 'lower' clubs can burn out quickly at the end of a season - go hard for as long as they can, which is anywhere between 12-16 rounds, and then fall apart.

The other factor is injuries. Richmond showed last year it matters nought what kind of preparation you have - if players the quality of Rance, Maric and Deledio are missing games in the hard part of your draw, good luck...if Essendon go injury free in 'easy runs', then they will probably rack up the wins regardless of whether provisional suspensions ever occured (i.e. Rnds 14-20, only play 2 finals sides from 2014, with only non-Etihad games being GWS @ Spotless and Melbourne @ MCG - Essendon would look to go minimum 5-2 here and need to have close to a full list). If injuries occur at the wrong time, it doesn't matter whether you played 3 or 0 pre-season games, your season is buggered.

Great Post.

I'm fairly confident in Bellchambers ability to carry the ruck load for the majority of the game and barring injury Giles shouldn't play more than a handful of games. I get the feeling Hird will leave Carlisle forward and we'll only see him go back late in quarters/games to play as a loose man ala Westhoff/Roughead.

 

[pazza]

I have tis funny feeling essendon will win round one. notorious strong starters vs notorious slow starters. playing off emotion. ANZ doesn't have the same unbeatable fortress nature that the scg has.

Yeah ok, but Essendon has a better record at the SCG than ANZ.

 

[00VicWard001]

A hypothetical.... as that's all we can do before the season proper starts. I don't want to go in to the ASADA findings as that would deem this thread to be in the wrong place, and it's not.

Now that it appears Essendons 34 players are legal to play (save for any appeal), is there anyone else here feeling that Essendons slow start to the season could actually prove beneficial come August, September?

Think about it. They've had a lot less lead up and are probably ill-prepared compared to many others clubs. This may be a deficit in the first few weeks of competition, but playing Sydney and Hawthorn mean that they're clubs they would likely lose against anyway. If Essendon lost to Brisbane and St Kilda early on due to being unprepared you would have reason to be upset, but against Sydney and Hawthorn you take that on the chin.

Could Essendon come out fresher at the end of the year and put rights to a Hollywood blockbuster plot line?

Wouldn't their percentage be destroyed after Sydney and Hawthorn demolish them? They would not only be putting themselves way way back, but they would give the swans and hawks huge percentage advantages too.

 

[The Speaker]

But most of us (sydney players included) would have been expected a team of ring ins.

A professional outfit would be preparing to face a best 22 side as long as that is a possibility.

 

[Power Raid]

sounds like May will be the real test

 

[The King!]

Did the op participate in danks supplement program? Must be ill or something

 

[The King!]

When was the last time Essendon won a final ? Also Paddy Ryder is a massive loss. Psychologically every other club will be gunning for them.

Assuming the ASADA appeal fails and their players are allowed to play the season, they have enough talent to finish top 6, not sure if they will be able to make a prelim though, semi final birth is realistically their best result in my opinion as it stands now .. (Depending on if Giles or McKernan can give Bellchambers adequate ruck support)

Essendon won a final in 2004

Sure in the last 10 years everyone bar essendon richmond gws and the suns have won a final

But essendon are a big threat now hey

 

[Leather Poisoning]

A professional outfit would be preparing to face a best 22 side as long as that is a possibility.

Every outfit aspires to be professional in the way you're describing.

They're still humans underneath

 

[Sherrinator]

Kind of correct. That is particularly true if Essendon were to go in with the replacements and lost their first 5 games.

But the same could be said the other way too. Essendon get smashed by 150 points, does that not look bad for the AFL and potentially reflect on their broadcasting rights agreement?

Not really an AFL issue as they allowed GC, GWS, Melb and other poor teams to be flogged by such margins during the expansion years.

 

[The King!]

Every outfit aspires to be professional in the way you're describing.

They're still humans underneath

We are coming out with as much fire as our last game....