Fantasy Elite

[Point Post]

Hi guys,

I have pick 2 in my draft with mates.

I know the guy with pick 1 is taking Rockliff...

So my question is... should I take...

A) Stef Martin
B) Gary Ablett
C) Someone completely different...

A few things to bear in mind... we're only in a 6 team competition so the talent pool runs deep but we have 2 rucks on the ground.

Would love to hear from anyone that wants to offer some advice!

Cheers

 

[Mego Red]

Martin.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Ablett.

 

[vide0n]

Martin.

 

[Spider Klein]

Martin for me

Reasons You said you play 2 rucks. I am assuming you play 8 mids. This means in theory the best 12 rucks get fielded each week and the best 48 mid only players get fielded each week. I will also assume dpp players that are mid/for are selected as forwards. likewise mid/bac and Blicavs as our only mid/ruc.

Martin Averaging 114 last year. the 12th best ruck averages 82. Even if Martin drops by 5 and averages 109 he is still 27 points above the 12th best ruck

Ablett Average last year is pretty skewed so lets say he goes from 94 last year to 110 this year. But the 48th best mid only players averages 90 This is 20 points ahead of the theoretical worst fielded mid.

So in my opinion only pick Ablett if you feel he is going to go about 117 average. Even then I would be more skeptical of Abletts injury history and want him to get 120ish to be worth taking over Martin.

 

[Ess_don]

Martin easy, Id pick him at #1 if I got the pick.

Anyone know how to randomize/finalize draft order before the draft?
My elite league is full now and all I see is a link to customize draft order, but I want it to be random and then want it locked in so we can all start strategize.. our draft night isnt until March 18 though.
Anyways would hate to be accused of draft tampering as Commissioner!

Thanks!

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

I play NFL fantasy, and there are hundreds of quality sites that have ADP (basically draft order) for many variations of comps (1 or 2 QB's, 2-3 WR's etc). Do you guys know of any like resources for AFL drafting competitions?

 

[Jozzy]

Ablett's recent run of injuries are a put off for any draft league, Martin is a solid contestant reliable bet.

 

[kane249]

Hi Guys,

Had an Elite question and didn't know where else to post it.

With emergencies, is it position specific or is it just whoever is the lowest scoring of the 4? The AFL website is vague about this.

IE if a Defender pulls out, can only a defender on my bench count towards my score?

Thanks

 

[doona]

Top 3 would have to be Goldy, S.Martin & Rocky I would have thought.

 

[Jonts]

out of those two

Ablett

 

[Wrangeroos]

Anyone know how to randomize/finalize draft order before the draft?

https://www.random.org/lists/

 

[doona]

Hi guys, I just renamed this thread so that all Fantasy Elite Strategy questions can be asked rather then just the OPs specific question.

 

[Vinegar Stroker]

Hi all, has anyone got any mock drafts they can post or send me links to? i would like to see how others are drafting so far in Elite

 

[FistSmashFight]

Hi guys,

I have pick 2 in my draft with mates.

I know the guy with pick 1 is taking Rockliff...

So my question is... should I take...

A) Stef Martin
B) Gary Ablett
C) Someone completely different...

A few things to bear in mind... we're only in a 6 team competition so the talent pool runs deep but we have 2 rucks on the ground.

Would love to hear from anyone that wants to offer some advice!

Cheers

In the exact same scenario man, got pick 2... There's a 99% chance the bloke with 1 is taking Rocky.

My league is an 8 man league with big teams (6-8-2-6) but I'm still thinking Stef is the way to go. He will likely maintain his average which puts him around 15 points better off than every ruck bar Goldy.

 

[FistSmashFight]

Also I have a sneaking suspicion ruck scoring in DT will drop off for those who rely more heavily on hit out points etc as the AFL looks to decrease stoppages.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

I'm using the footy prophet app. For my league settings (5, 6, 2, 5 - 4 on bench) the app suggests to take Mark Blicavs at pick 4 over Rockliff at pick 5. Max Gawn is suggested at pick 8. Pretty crazy. I understand the ruck position has far less depth, but I'm not sure if I can take Max Gawn over Gary Ablett haha.

 

[FistSmashFight]

I'm using the footy prophet app. For my league settings (5, 6, 2, 5 - 4 on bench) the app suggests to take Mark Blicavs at pick 4 over Rockliff at pick 5. Max Gawn is suggested at pick 8. Pretty crazy. I understand the ruck position has far less depth, but I'm not sure if I can take Max Gawn over Gary Ablett haha.

Haha its certainly an interesting one. I know once I get Stef at 2 I won't be picking another ruck until very very late, perhaps even a Minson/Tippett/Nicholls/Smith type with one of my later picks.

 

[Tonche]

If anyone wants to trade draft results, pm me. 18 team league so very deep, a couple of teams didn't seem to be there but still interesting.

 

[C_Turn]

Hi guys,

Is this the only thread for draft leagues? I'm about to start doing my prep ahead of our draft and wondering best place to discuss and other resources I can use.

As mentioned above value based drafting is always the way to go, article below from the 90s NFL fantasy still just as relevant today.

http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm

I've been overseas for a few years now so need to start putting in some serious hours to get up to date so i can get some accurate predictions.

 

[Spider Klein]

Have a fantasy elite team that is doing 3 keepers. I have Rockliff and Martin as locks. Both are young and top few in their position.

My choice is between Priddis (a proven commodity) Not worried about his age as my other keepers are both young.

Or Patrick Cripps (unproven potential gun)

I know 2016 is probably Priddis but by how much? And what do people think Cripps can do in 2017? Is he going to be a genuine gun thats worth securing as a keeper now? Cripps will be a key in Carltons midfield but they have hinted at a defensive gameplan this year.

Any input into the decision is appreciated. I have struggled to come to a decision.

 

[blackers]

Hi guys,

Is this the only thread for draft leagues? I'm about to start doing my prep ahead of our draft and wondering best place to discuss and other resources I can use.

As mentioned above value based drafting is always the way to go, article below from the 90s NFL fantasy still just as relevant today.

http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm

I've been overseas for a few years now so need to start putting in some serious hours to get up to date so i can get some accurate predictions.

I read that article a couple of years ago and I've been using a value based system in AFL Fantasy the last couple of years.

But there's very little information around about applying VBD to AFL Fantasy. I have been making my own spreadsheet from scratch each year. There are a few sources who are clearly using some sort of VBD system to come up with a draft list (e.g. The Traders, Footy Prophet) but they are not transparent about their valuations or what size league they are assuming so you really have to roll your own.

This year I used a slightly improved system than I have in the past. Previously, I just predicted an average score for each player and used that to calculate value over replacement player (VORP). But this meant I had guys high on my list who were susceptible to injury.

This season, for each player, I predicted an average score and a number of games. I based the games prediction on last year and overall career injury record. Basically assumed a fit footballer who is a regular will play 21 games, and adjusted up or down from that based on current injury status, place in the team, injury history etc.

Then you work out VORP based on a rating of [(predicted avg score) x (predicted games) + (games missed) x (avg of best undrafted player)]/22. So say an older guy may average 85 but will be managed to only play 15 games for the season. He gets a rating of (15 x 85 + 7 x 65)/22.

VBD is really useful in my league because we have 14 teams and 2 rucks each, meaning the value of rucks is sky high. At least half the teams in my league end up without two first choice ruckmen. My system means I usually end up getting my 2 rucks in my first few picks.

 

[blackers]

Have a fantasy elite team that is doing 3 keepers. I have Rockliff and Martin as locks. Both are young and top few in their position.

My choice is between Priddis (a proven commodity) Not worried about his age as my other keepers are both young.

Or Patrick Cripps (unproven potential gun)

I know 2016 is probably Priddis but by how much? And what do people think Cripps can do in 2017? Is he going to be a genuine gun thats worth securing as a keeper now? Cripps will be a key in Carltons midfield but they have hinted at a defensive gameplan this year.

Any input into the decision is appreciated. I have struggled to come to a decision.

You've got to back your own call - that's the whole point of fantasy!

FWIW, I have Priddis basically doing the same this year as last, 103 avg. Cripps should have some improvement in him, I reckon he'll average 95 or so. He could easily match Priddis in 2017 and pass him in 2018. I wouldn't worry too much about a defensive gameplan, even in a poor team someone has got to get hands on the ball. Brisbane suck but Rockliff and Martin get leather poisoning every week.

 

[Spider Klein]

You've got to back your own call - that's the whole point of fantasy!

FWIW, I have Priddis basically doing the same this year as last, 103 avg. Cripps should have some improvement in him, I reckon he'll average 95 or so. He could easily match Priddis in 2017 and pass him in 2018. I wouldn't worry too much about a defensive gameplan, even in a poor team someone has got to get hands on the ball. Brisbane suck but Rockliff and Martin get leather poisoning every week.

Thanks.

Yeah I do generally go with my call but this one has bugged me for a while. Priddis as a premium always goes early in the draft and I know a couple of mates are real high on Cripps so it would be a first round investment most likely to get the one that I didn't keep back. And also there might be a better option anyway.

But I appreciate your input and I will keep trying to figure this one out.

 

[FistSmashFight]

Yeah I'd agree, I'd take 10 years of Cripps over 2 years of Priddis. I personally see Cripps plateauing for a year or two before exploding and being a legit premium for the rest of his career.

Second pick in my league is gonna be used on Stef provided the guy with pick 1 goes Rocky. We have an 8 team league with two rucks each so everyone should get a couple of decent rucks but Without Leuy or West in the side last season Stef averaged 124DT points a match! Thats more than 10 higher than Goldy in second and a good 20+ from the rest of the chasing pack.

Although there's risk in this selection, I think its warranted and if he backs up his last 18 months, it will be a potentially league winning move.