i'd be flabbergasted if Collingwood were top 4. They won 10 straight games last year by 2 goals or less and had the 9th best percentage in the regular season. That puts them more in the range of the Bulldogs, Carlton, Port and the Suns in terms of performance. It was a sterling run but come on, they were a solid mid-table team who rode their luck and had everything fall in place. Freo feel a bit the same for me - could land anywhere from 5th to 14th and I wouldn't be surprised but i don't think they are contending.
I expect Geelong to fall out of premiership contention but still do enough for finals, and Melbourne to do the same unless they are extremely lucky with injury (I think they're too thin and relying on guys aged 29-32 to stay healthy, which can be a premiership or a disaster).
I could see any of Bulldogs, Port, Carlton being good but they're in the camp of 'I'll believe it when I see it' after the past few disappointing years, so for me the contenders should probably be Brisbane, Sydney and Richmond, plus whichever of those three teams actually shows up (and Geelong/Melbourne/Freo/Collingwood considered 'contenders' until they aren't any more...)
There's always a genuine surprise packet and I could see any of St Kilda, Essendon, Adelaide or GC flirting with that role, particularly if they get off to a good start.
I expect Geelong to fall out of premiership contention but still do enough for finals, and Melbourne to do the same unless they are extremely lucky with injury (I think they're too thin and relying on guys aged 29-32 to stay healthy, which can be a premiership or a disaster).
I could see any of Bulldogs, Port, Carlton being good but they're in the camp of 'I'll believe it when I see it' after the past few disappointing years, so for me the contenders should probably be Brisbane, Sydney and Richmond, plus whichever of those three teams actually shows up (and Geelong/Melbourne/Freo/Collingwood considered 'contenders' until they aren't any more...)
There's always a genuine surprise packet and I could see any of St Kilda, Essendon, Adelaide or GC flirting with that role, particularly if they get off to a good start.