finals and who can win the 2023 premiership

[btdg]

i'd be flabbergasted if Collingwood were top 4. They won 10 straight games last year by 2 goals or less and had the 9th best percentage in the regular season. That puts them more in the range of the Bulldogs, Carlton, Port and the Suns in terms of performance. It was a sterling run but come on, they were a solid mid-table team who rode their luck and had everything fall in place. Freo feel a bit the same for me - could land anywhere from 5th to 14th and I wouldn't be surprised but i don't think they are contending.

I expect Geelong to fall out of premiership contention but still do enough for finals, and Melbourne to do the same unless they are extremely lucky with injury (I think they're too thin and relying on guys aged 29-32 to stay healthy, which can be a premiership or a disaster).

I could see any of Bulldogs, Port, Carlton being good but they're in the camp of 'I'll believe it when I see it' after the past few disappointing years, so for me the contenders should probably be Brisbane, Sydney and Richmond, plus whichever of those three teams actually shows up (and Geelong/Melbourne/Freo/Collingwood considered 'contenders' until they aren't any more...)

There's always a genuine surprise packet and I could see any of St Kilda, Essendon, Adelaide or GC flirting with that role, particularly if they get off to a good start.

 

[Osho]

Fly is a better daygame coach than Scott? Based on what?

 

[Bradkli]

Why do you have Richmond as can and Carlton and Collingwood as miracle. I’d actually have them swapped around, the hysteria around Richmond drafting Taranto and Hopper cracks me up.

I think both Collingwood and Carlton have excellent lists and should both play finals.

However, Collingwood last season were incredibly lucky. Their midfield was ranked bottom 4 and they won numerous games they had no right to win. I think they will regress this season.

With Carlton it’s all about experience..they haven’t played finals in close to a decade. Their list is in brilliant shape and they should be winning a flag in the next 3-4 seasons. This season they should be aiming to win a final.

Richmond have done it and have a very good coach. As I said before, they were average last season and should have made a prelim. They will be better this season.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I think Lions will finish on top of the ladder this year, but the flag will be between the Vic teams again.

Cats, Dees and Tigers is my 3.

 

[juss]

I actually agree to the premise that there's only a certain amount of teams who are actually contenders at winning the flag. E.g. while the Hawks and North Melbourne are mathematically possibilities at winning the flag, everyone knows they won't and you can effectively rule them out now with common sense.

Based on that, these are my "can win" the flag teams, some a lot more likely than others, but in alphabetical order:

Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Melbourne, Port Adelade, Richmond, Sydney, Bulldogs.

Anyone else, I don't give them a shot and I can draw a common sense line through, and would be happy to call it now that they can't/won't win the flag.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

The backline wasn't the issue.

We lost most of our finals between 2016-21 for the same reason. A sub par ruck division and being smashed in the midfield after dominating the H&A season.. I.e. Mids choking.

And yes we addressed all those issues. Even learned to win without Stewart knitting the defence together.

1. Stanley rucks centre bounces then drifts to CHB. Blicavs uses his aerobic capacity to run around the ground as a ruck rover.
2. Henderson out. De Koning in.
3. Much deeper spread of midfielders. Atkins, Holmes, Guthrie, Blicavs all taking load off Dangerfield and Selwood reliance.

Were the mids choking or were the likes of Selwood and Dangerfield out of gas by the time finals rolled around? Danger missed games through injury last year and was managed on top of that and Selwood was managed beautifully too. The both had strong finals series, I don't think it was a coincidence. I agree with your 3 points.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

So Geelong had a young step into the team. Why are we ruling out Brisbane having a young guy step in?

Because Hipwood and Daniher are no good.

Geelong or Melbourne the biggest chances to win it.

Dogs to be big improvers.

 

[timokane]

My finals line up teams:

1. lions
2. cats
3. blues
4. pies

5. dees
6. tigers
7. swans
8. i have 4 teams viying for that last spot its out of dogs power gws and crows

finals week 1 look like this
qf final 1 cats and blues at the mcg
qf final 2 lions and pies at gabba

elim 1 dees and ill say a dogs or power at mcg
elim 2 tigers and swans at the mcg

 

[timokane]

i would say elim 1 is can be dees and freo at the mcg as well freo are a good team so another one that could sneak into 8th

 

[Freomaniac]

I think it will end up being a Geelong vs Fremantle Grand Final.

If Fremantle can keep their key position players healthy they might win the 2023 Premiership. They just never seem to have a settled lineup.

History suggests that when a team losses a Grand Final by a big margin they rarely recover. I don’t think Sydney will be that much of a threat this year.

Freo has a nasty draw.

Eagles and Hawks twice. Eagles will improve. they are better than their 2-20 record in 2022 suggests.

Have the swans and cats twice, both made the 2022 AFL grand final. Both teams have no fears in taking on Freo in Perth. Dockers havent won in NSW since 2011 and Cats in Geelong is always a tough ask.

Freo also have dogs and brisbane twice. Both are likely to be in the top 8 in 2023.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Seems like a few of the experts are going cold about Collingwood