Opinion Fixing our KPF problem

[Panthera]

Also had a window of nothingness this afternoon so started prepping/researching some info for questions in this years Bigfooty Quiz. Interestingly came across some stats that I thought might add some clarity to a couple of the opinions already put forward in this thread.


Goals per game is an obvious starting point but I’d suggested using the average registered scoring shots per game with added inclusion of an accuracy %. On last years numbers Michael Close only averaged 1 shot at goal per game although of all the players going on to play again this year at the Lions with 10 or more registered scoring shots both Green [71.74%] and Close[71.43%] had accuracy percentages that ranked 2 and 3 respectively – (Freeman only had 9 registered scoring shots last year but his accuracy percentage of 66.67% would have ranked him 4th – Rocky with 76.92% is currently ranked #1)


So… by calculating the raw numbers [average registered scoring shots, accuracy% from 2014] for Green, Close and Freeman [assuming they all play 22 games] then sadly the high bar benchmark of 100 goals will not be reached – falling short by almost 15 goals.


BUT… with the possible constant additions of D.Beams, Rich, Christensen and even Robinson inside 50’s should/will increase. Add to this my recently read ‘next BIG Stat’ of scores from repeat inside 50’s or where the forward/mid pressure causes a turnover from an opposition rebounding 50 turnover [yep – read it and weep… forget looking at thighs, it’s time to acknowledge the huge relevance of dirty balls out of the oppositions defensive 50 now becoming the new BIG SizeMatters factor ]

Our inside 50 numbers were deplorable last year and need to increase by 10 per game to get to where we think we can. But, despite all the hype with new players and the potential of our youngsters; our first priority is to become a battle hardened, competitive outfit, week-in, week-out. Looking at an expanded 2014 AFL ladder version, we:

Ranked 18th in Quarters won
Ranked 18th in Inside 50's
Ranked 18th in 4th quarters won
Average losing margin of nearly 10 goals

 

[Ironmonger]

Our inside 50 numbers were deplorable last year and need to increase by 10 per game to get to where we think we can. But, despite all the hype with new players and the potential of our youngsters; our first priority is to become a battle hardened, competitive outfit, week-in, week-out. Looking at an expanded 2014 AFL ladder version, we:

Ranked 18th in Quarters won
Ranked 18th in Inside 50's
Ranked 18th in 4th quarters won
Average losing margin of nearly 10 goals

That's pretty sobering.

It's probably worth reminding ourselves that a 7-15 record in 2014 might have flattered us a tad. We had a lot of close wins. It's easy to say that we should improve on that by x amount because of new players, an easier draw, and less injuries (touch wood) but it doesn't work like that.

Having a bit more of a look at those stats, we won just 21 quarters in 2014. It'll be interesting at the end of 2015 to see how we compare.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Our inside 50 numbers were deplorable last year and need to increase by 10 per game to get to where we think we can. But, despite all the hype with new players and the potential of our youngsters; our first priority is to become a battle hardened, competitive outfit, week-in, week-out. Looking at an expanded 2014 AFL ladder version, we:

Ranked 18th in Quarters won
Ranked 18th in Inside 50's
Ranked 18th in 4th quarters won
Average losing margin of nearly 10 goals

We were 1 and 9 after 10 rounds and went 6-7 in the last 13 rds. I'd suggest if you look at the numbers in the last 13 rds they are much better. We had a nice spread of goal kickers in our wins and were able to display impressive pace combined with effective handball later in the year.

All year that last kick into the fwd 50 hurt us. Can't help but think that will be greatly improved next year.

 

[Ironmonger]

We were 1 and 9 after 10 rounds and went 6-7 in the last 13 rds. I'd suggest if you look at the numbers in the last 13 rds they are much better. We had a nice spread of goal kickers in our wins and were able to display impressive pace combined with effective handball later in the year.

All year that last kick into the fwd 50 hurt us. Can't help but think that will be greatly improved next year.

The pitfalls of posting at 4am.

You're not wrong though. The awful start to the season held down our numbers. They're still pretty bleak though.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

The pitfalls of posting at 4am.

You're not wrong though. The awful start to the season held down our numbers. They're still pretty bleak though.

Maybe, but I would think most of us can see the upside in the second half of the year. Those numbers are not really telling the story are they.

 

[Panthera]

We were 1 and 9 after 10 rounds and went 6-7 in the last 13 rds. I'd suggest if you look at the numbers in the last 13 rds they are much better. We had a nice spread of goal kickers in our wins and were able to display impressive pace combined with effective handball later in the year.

All year that last kick into the fwd 50 hurt us. Can't help but think that will be greatly improved next year.

Quarters won, Inside 50's and 4th quarters won didn't change a lot after our bye round...

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Quarters won, Inside 50's and 4th quarters won didn't change a lot after our bye round...

The wins did though. Considering the additions post season and returns from injury, as well as natural improvement from the younger guys, all the aforementioned will improve. So much more talent and depth compared to the first 9 rounds last year.

 

[Panthera]

The wins did though. Considering the additions post season and returns from injury, as well as natural improvement from the younger guys, all the aforementioned will improve. So much more talent and depth compared to the first 9 rounds last year.

Yep, totally agree; signs are positive. And our stats read better after the bye, just not by a massive amount.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Yep, totally agree; signs are positive. And our stats read better after the bye, just not by a massive amount.

Then we have a lot to look forward to in 15.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

We think

 

[Panthera]

Then we have a lot to look forward to in 15.

Personally, I think 10 wins are a given (barring unforeseen circumstances).

9 and a draw is minimum I'd be happy with

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Personally, I think 10 wins are a given (barring unforeseen circumstances).

9 and a draw is minimum I'd be happy with

Agree.

 

[blynd_freddie]

Yeah, both sides of the fence could be deemed right… [well that’s a little awkward]


My Lions 2014 season in brief review –

• 7 Wins – 15 Losses
• Only 3 [of 11] home games are won
• We only scored 1532 pts – ranked 16th
• 221G-206B accuracy 52% - ranked 16th
• Had the 3rd most points kicked against us
• After the round 10 bye, we went on to win 6 games
• The last 13 games – 6wins 7losses and a For/Against of 81%

People have mentioned a pretty ordinary 2014 fixture and they would be right. The bottom eight finishing teams on last years ladder were COL, GCS, CAR, WBD, us, GWS, MEL & STK – we played all of them ONLY once [with the exception of GCS]

We played 14 games against the top 10 finishing sides WE ONLY WON ONCE, in the Jono Brown ‘farewell’ game against the Kangas.

• 14 games against THE TOP TEN TEAMS – 1 win – 13 losses
• 1-13 and a For/Against of only 52%

The positive? Again, we only played 8 games against the bottom/worst seven finishing teams of 2014…

• we scored a total of 723 points [averaging 90 points a game]
• restricted the opposition to 659 points [av 82 pts/gm]
• so… 6 wins 2 losses with a percentage of almost 110

SUMMARY:
Sure we finished bottom four in 2014, we ARE NOT a bottom four team but it would also be fair to say, even with the inclusion of D.Beams, Christensen, and Mitch Robinson it would be most unlikely that we would be a top four team in 2015.

IMO, we will improve clearances, inside 50’s, scoring opportunities – but with the loss of Patfull and the general ‘youngness’ down back, defensively we may well continue to struggle

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Yeah, both sides of the fence could be deemed right… [well that’s a little awkward]


My Lions 2014 season in brief review –

• 7 Wins – 15 Losses
• Only 3 [of 11] home games are won
• We only scored 1532 pts – ranked 16th
• 221G-206B accuracy 52% - ranked 16th
• Had the 3rd most points kicked against us
• After the round 10 bye, we went on to win 6 games
• The last 13 games – 6wins 7losses and a For/Against of 81%

People have mentioned a pretty ordinary 2014 fixture and they would be right. The bottom eight finishing teams on last years ladder were COL, GCS, CAR, WBD, us, GWS, MEL & STK – we played all of them ONLY once [with the exception of GCS]

We played 14 games against the top 10 finishing sides WE ONLY WON ONCE, in the Jono Brown ‘farewell’ game against the Kangas.

• 14 games against THE TOP TEN TEAMS – 1 win – 13 losses
• 1-13 and a For/Against of only 52%

The positive? Again, we only played 8 games against the bottom/worst seven finishing teams of 2014…

• we scored a total of 723 points [averaging 90 points a game]
• restricted the opposition to 659 points [av 82 pts/gm]
• so… 6 wins 2 losses with a percentage of almost 110

SUMMARY:
Sure we finished bottom four in 2014, we ARE NOT a bottom four team but it would also be fair to say, even with the inclusion of D.Beams, Christensen, and Mitch Robinson it would be most unlikely that we would be a top four team in 2015.

IMO, we will improve clearances, inside 50’s, scoring opportunities – but with the loss of Patfull and the general ‘youngness’ down back, defensively we may well continue to struggle

Nice work Freddie. Agree with your summary, although I'm hoping the additions and returns in the midfield will improve our uncontested possession rates and allow us more control and opportunities to score and restrict inside 50s against better and inferior opposition. So hopefully, our defence gets more consistent support up the field.

 

[Panthera]

Looking at potential best team versions being posted on here; it's worth noting that come round 1; six very capable AFL players come in, ranging from Star level to solid AFL player (and all in the 24-27 age bracket) will hopefully play for the first time together:

D. Beams
Christensen
Robinson
Rich
Martin
Leuenberger

 

[SizeMatters]

Maybe, but I would think most of us can see the upside in the second half of the year. Those numbers are not really telling the story are they.

The second half of the season was almost identical to our 2013 season. Doesn't mean we will keep improving although I believe personally that we will with
Hopefully a smaller injury list, improved understanding of the Leppa game plan and the
Inclusion of world class midfield coach, an easier draw, elite offseason signings, and another season into our young bucks.

 

[James North]

The second half of the season was almost identical to our 2013 season. Doesn't mean we will keep improving although I believe personally that we will with
Hopefully a smaller injury list, improved understanding of the Leppa game plan and the
Inclusion of world class midfield coach, an easier draw, elite offseason signings, and another season into our young bucks.

This kinda reminds me of how teams who win the NFL are considered "world champions".

 

[Lace Out]

We need to beat Richmond.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey guys do you see leunsburger playing as a pure ruckman or share ruck/forward with Martin 50/50. I don't see a reason for leunsburger to rest forward tbh, you guys have some solid kpf youth and leunsburger isn't much of a threat forward anyways.

 

[blackpowerlappin]

Hey guys do you see leunsburger playing as a pure ruckman or share ruck/forward with Martin 50/50. I don't see a reason for leunsburger to rest forward tbh, you guys have some solid kpf youth and leunsburger isn't much of a threat forward anyways.

Horses for courses in my opinion. Loved the versality and run Stef gave us but against the bigger rucks like Jacobs and Sandilands he can struggle. Personally hoping both can share where required and add goals.

 

[EskiBro]

Hey guys do you see leunsburger playing as a pure ruckman or share ruck/forward with Martin 50/50. I don't see a reason for leunsburger to rest forward tbh, you guys have some solid kpf youth and leunsburger isn't much of a threat forward anyways.

When Martin played as a FWD/RUC, he averaged less than 8 disposals and 0.8 goals per match (nearly ended his AFL career). Leuenberger not much better as a FWD either.

In round 23 last year (the only game they played in tandem), Berger #1 ruck, Martin ruck rover/relief ruck/resting in defence. Martin picked up 32 disposals, 6 marks, 15 HOs and a goal. Leuenberger picked up 36 HOs, 11 disposals and 96 Champion Data ranking points (a good indicator of how effective he was as a ruck).

That's gotta be our "Plan A" set up.

 

[whatboutbob]

Might be time for a supercoach / dreamteam questions thread.

 

[Milux]

When Martin played as a FWD/RUC, he averaged less than 8 disposals and 0.8 goals per match (nearly ended his AFL career). Leuenberger not much better as a FWD either.

In round 23 last year (the only game they played in tandem), Berger #1 ruck, Martin ruck rover/relief ruck/resting in defence. Martin picked up 32 disposals, 6 marks, 15 HOs and a goal. Leuenberger picked up 36 HOs, 11 disposals and 96 Champion Data ranking points (a good indicator of how effective he was as a ruck).

That's gotta be our "Plan A" set up.

At first it felt strange seeing bergs and martin in the square at the first bounce up. But watching the game it shows how effective this could be. Martin could turn into a clearance beast with his body. Probably a touch slow but seems to know where to go and is rarely standing still.

 

[SizeMatters]

Martin is faster than half of the inside mids that are playing today. Pace not an issue but his footy smarts will need a revamp if he goes down that path.

 

[a mayes ing]

The problem l have with him being in the cente is that when it is near him, he is good. But when the ball is a little away from him and both he and his opponent is going to it, Martin isn't fast enough and his opponent gets it. This happened in the rd 23 game.