Club Focus Geelong 2024

[Ticky009]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

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[Catastrophe!]

Each year, a select number of players are out of contract and clubs look at who is a available and who improves their list.

If the best available free agent or out of contract player wants to come to you, you get the deal done. Something Geelong did extremely well with Danger and Cameron. I think they are in a position to compete (but not necessarily contend), however the current list make up still has a lot of older guys 30+ guys who surely will all be gone over the next 1-3 years.

Every club has promising youth but it's not guarantee of anything until they truly cement themselves and push out the older types of the team.

Very balanced assessment, kudos.

 

[Keeper]

But Danger and Cameron were expensive mid-aged players.

And those mid age players tend to come free aside from salary so I do not quite see the downside.

Don't really follow the logic here, other than evident things like a lot of our best players are old.

I'll rephrase:
Dangerfield and Cameron were added to a list that already had Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stewart(post-Dangerfield) and some others. Fill some of the gaps with a few more top-ups (Tuohy, I.Smith, Stengle, Stanley, Rohan) and a few other decent pickups, and you have yourself a team that can eek out a Premiership in 2022.

In 2024, all of Hawkins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs, Stewart, Tuohy, Guthrie, Cameron, + others are 30+. Most, if not all of these guys will be retired over the next 2-3 years.

Therefore, if you're paying the big money and the big draft capital to bring in Oliver and/or Bailey Smith in 2024, you're effectively adding them to a core containing the likes of: Clark, Henry, Atkins, Stengle, Miers, Knevitt, Holmes, Bruhn, Jeka, Bowes.

In my opinion, this is just like Richmond adding Hopper and Taranto to: Broad, Balta, Graham, Bolton, Dow, Rioli, Short, Baker, etc.

There is a right time and a wrong time to bring in the top-ups, and much of it depends on the state of the list. I think the timing is wrong for Geelong now the same way it was wrong for Richmond.

 

[Keeper]

You guys are going through a massive rebuild and you're being linked heavily to Smith - what's the difference?

We're smack in the middle of ours. Having recruited heavily from the draft over the past few years, we're now reaching a stage where the time is right to target more experienced players for the next step.

Also, Smith and Oliver are far different players to Mitchell and O'Meara. Smith is an up and coming superstar who fits our age profile perfectly, and Oliver is a Top 5 player in the game when at his best. If we somehow landed both of them, we'd literally have our midfield sorted for the next 5-8 years...and would then just need to focus on landing another gun key forward - as we have elite smalls, a medium gun in O. Henry, and a lot of faith in Shannon Neale as the Hawkins replacement. If Conway turns out as a ruck, and O'Sullivan lives up to his potential, then we've filled all holes and we go again.

This all sounds very familiar...

Midfield sorted for the next 5-8 years?... sounds exactly like Richmond fans with Hopper and Taranto, or us with O'Meara and Mitchell (you can say they are "far different players", but they were still quality midfield prospects).
Finding a "gun key-forward" is absolutely non-trivial. Finding one that can be even half as influential as Hawkins or Cameron is very difficult in itself. It's all well and good to say the club has a lot of faith in X or believes Y can be elite... but every club says this about all their prospects. AFL-level is a huge step up, and becoming an elite key-forward in a contending team is an even bigger step up.

We have a pretty good key-forward in Mitch Lewis, but he's not even half the player Hawkins or Cameron were.

We've turned over our entire list bar Duncan and Hawkins since 2011... we're now in the process of doing it again with 15 of our Best 23 being 38 or under.

We started our rebuild in 2021 and have only brought in young talent since then. I suspect if we think an established player fits an area of need in the right age profile, then we will definitely look at bringing them in as we've never been a club to just go quietly off into the night.

We'll see I guess.
Right now though, I don't think Geelong's youth stockpiles are good enough to justify throwing the kitchen sink on top-ups. Just my opinion.

 

[Catastrophe!]

I'll rephrase:
Dangerfield and Cameron were added to a list that already had Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stewart(post-Dangerfield) and some others. Fill some of the gaps with a few more top-ups (Tuohy, I.Smith, Stengle, Stanley, Rohan) and a few other decent pickups, and you have yourself a team that can eek out a Premiership in 2022.

In 2024, all of Hawkins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs, Stewart, Tuohy, Guthrie, Cameron, + others are 30+. Most, if not all of these guys will be retired over the next 2-3 years.

Therefore, if you're paying the big money and the big draft capital to bring in Oliver and/or Bailey Smith in 2024, you're effectively adding them to a list with the likes of: Clark, Henry, Atkins, Stengle, Miers, Knevitt, Holmes, Bruhn, Jeka, Bowes.

In my opinion, this is just like Richmond adding Hopper and Taranto to: Broad, Balta, Graham, Bolton, Dow, Rioli, Short, Baker, etc.

There is a right time and a wrong time to bring in the top-ups, and much of it depends on the state of the list. I think the timing is wrong for Geelong the same way it was wrong for Richmond.

Close, SDK, Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, S. Neale, Conway, Mullin, Kolo, Mannagh, Dempsey, O'Connor...added to Stewart who is contracted to 2027, and Cameron who likely plays to a similar age. Blics an athletic freak who could play that long too. O'Sullivan already showing good signs.

Also I don't know why you keep mentioning Jeka, as he's not even close to our best side.

If we were to pick both Smith and Oliver up in some alternate universe, this would most likely be our side:

B: O'Connor, SDK, Zuthrie
HB: Stewart, J. Henry, Holmes
C: Blicavs, Oliver, Miers
FO: Conway, C. Guthrie, B. Smith
HF: O. Henry, J. Cameron, Dempsey
F: Close, S. Neale, Stengle
INT: T. Atkins, Bowes, Bruhn, J. Clark
Sub: Knevitt

EMG: Kolo, Mannagh, Mullin

It's not exactly a pile of crap, lol. You might not rate our youth, but that is your opinion, not fact. A lot to play out, but the point will likely be moot as we will probably not end up with either of them if it costs too much draft wise.

 

[Keeper]

Close, SDK, Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, S. Neale, Conway, Mullin, Kolo, Mannagh, Dempsey, O'Connor...added to Stewart who is contracted to 2027, and Cameron who likely plays to a similar age. Blics an athletic freak who could play that long too. O'Sullivan already showing good signs.

Also I don't know why you keep mentioning Jeka, as he's not even close to our best side.

If we were to pick both Smith and Oliver up in some alternate universe, this would most likely be our side:

B: O'Connor, SDK, Zuthrie
HB: Stewart, J. Henry, Holmes
C: Blicavs, Oliver, Miers
FO: Conway, C. Guthrie, B. Smith
HF: O. Henry, J. Cameron, Dempsey
F: Close, S. Neale, Stengle
INT: T. Atkins, Bowes, Bruhn, J. Clark
Sub: Knevitt

EMG: Kolo, Mannagh, Mullin

It's not exactly a pile of crap, lol. You might not rate our youth, but that is your opinion, not fact. A lot to play out, but the point will likely be moot as we will probably not end up with either of them if it costs too much draft wise.

I was not presenting my posts as facts. I made it perfectly clear that this is just my opinion.

You're entitled to the glass half-full outlook of your club's list. Personally I don't think you can expect the old guard to just keep on producing (signs of decline were already very evident last year) and yeah, I don't see Premiership-winning foundation when I look at Geelong's youth right now. Better than Richmond and Hawthorn(circa 2016)? Sure, but that's it.

I mention Jeka because I've read a few Geelong fans claiming he could be a replacement for Hawkins or Cameron. Maybe that's not popular belief among most Geelong fans but whatever. You certainly wouldn't want that to be the case...

 

[Footy Smarts]

I'll rephrase:
Dangerfield and Cameron were added to a list that already had Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stewart(post-Dangerfield) and some others. Fill some of the gaps with a few more top-ups (Tuohy, I.Smith, Stengle, Stanley, Rohan) and a few other decent pickups, and you have yourself a team that can eek out a Premiership in 2022.

In 2024, all of Hawkins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs, Stewart, Tuohy, Guthrie, Cameron, + others are 30+. Most, if not all of these guys will be retired over the next 2-3 years.

Therefore, if you're paying the big money and the big draft capital to bring in Oliver and/or Bailey Smith in 2024, you're effectively adding them to a core containing the likes of: Clark, Henry, Atkins, Stengle, Miers, Knevitt, Holmes, Bruhn, Jeka, Bowes.

In my opinion, this is just like Richmond adding Hopper and Taranto to: Broad, Balta, Graham, Bolton, Dow, Rioli, Short, Baker, etc.

There is a right time and a wrong time to bring in the top-ups, and much of it depends on the state of the list. I think the timing is wrong for Geelong now the same way it was wrong for Richmond.

You really should look at who played the last game in 2015 before Danger came to Geelong and how old they were. Hint there were some pretty handy 30+ year olds then too.

Oh look AFL tables does that for you:

AFL Tables - Geelong v Adelaide - Sat, 5-Sep-2015 1:05 PM - Match Stats

 

[Footy Smarts]

I mention Jeka because I've read a few Geelong fans claiming he could be a replacement for Hawkins or Cameron.

Lol no you haven't. Go on link the posts saying that.

The guy is a depth key defender because we've got nobody outside of an injury prone J Henry, SDK and first year O'Sullivan. Nothing more. He's probably a 1 in 20 chance of becoming even an ok player.

 

[Keeper]

You really should look at who played the last game in 2015 before Danger came to Geelong and how old they were. Hint there were some pretty handy 30+ year olds then too.

Oh look AFL tables does that for you:

AFL Tables - Geelong v Adelaide - Sat, 5-Sep-2015 1:05 PM - Match Stats

Ok? Not really sure what that has to do with my point.
Is picking up a Dangerfield and Cameron equivalent on unders again part of the plan? If so, it would be pretty hard to argue against it.

Picking up Oliver's $1m a year long-term contract is a bit different from bending over Adelaide for their best player though...

 

[Keeper]

Lol no you haven't. Go on link the posts saying that.

The guy is a depth key defender because we've got nobody outside of an injury prone J Henry, SDK and first year O'Sullivan. Nothing more. He's probably a 1 in 20 chance of becoming even an ok player.

Alright here you go champ:

The thread topic is merely who has been doing a better job preparing for the future, more specifically since they met in the 2020 grand final. So players drafted/acquired around then or more recently are all fair game for this discussion. Players who were fairly new to the team as well. That's why 25 and under I think is a reasonable cut off point - it gives you an outlook on what the next 6/7 years could look like. But I accept Taranto and Hopper will be important for Richmond so let's move it up to 26.

Picking the best 22 for let's say 2027 or 2028:

FB: Young Gibcus Trezise
HB: Banks Miller Ralphsmith

C: Ross Taranto Sonsie
FOL: Ryan Hopper Bolton

HF: Mansell Kozzy MRJ
FF: Cumberland Balta Campbell

IC: Dow Coulthard Bauer Clarke

vs

FB: J.Henry De Koning Mullin
HB: Humphries O'Sullivan Z.Guthrie

C: Dempsey Clark Bowes
FOL: Conway Bruhn Holmes

HF: Miers Jeka Close
FF: O.Henry Neale Stengle

IC: Mannagh Parfitt Knevitt Clohesy

Richmond with the edge in midfield but Taranto/Hopper would already be 30, with Bolton not far behind. Geelong better stocked elsewhere. Both sides have areas to address in the next few drafts or by FA.

Can't be bothered looking for other examples because this is just you going on an irrelevant tangent. Jeka or no Jeka, who cares.

 

[Mr Meow]

Alright here you go champ:


Can't be bothered looking for other examples because this is just you going on an irrelevant tangent. Jeka or no Jeka, who cares.

I mean Jeka was quite obviously a placeholder. We picked up Edwards at pick 32 as a potential ruck/forward. COS or SDK have potential to be CHF's if the backline balance allows. Or we'll draft another forward (likely) or chase a FA forward (likely).

By a technicality, Jeka would still fit placeholder requirements at this stage more than those other options. But he was clearly recruited as backup, not the future Hawkins which is a truly absurd implication you have made - based on a task I completed that you deemed pointless.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I mean Jeka was quite obviously a placeholder.

Nah come on mate. Clearly it's Jeka or bust and us Geelong fans think he's the second coming of Ablett.

 

[Tonythetiger]

I'll rephrase:
Dangerfield and Cameron were added to a list that already had Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stewart(post-Dangerfield) and some others. Fill some of the gaps with a few more top-ups (Tuohy, I.Smith, Stengle, Stanley, Rohan) and a few other decent pickups, and you have yourself a team that can eek out a Premiership in 2022.

In 2024, all of Hawkins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs, Stewart, Tuohy, Guthrie, Cameron, + others are 30+. Most, if not all of these guys will be retired over the next 2-3 years.

Therefore, if you're paying the big money and the big draft capital to bring in Oliver and/or Bailey Smith in 2024, you're effectively adding them to a core containing the likes of: Clark, Henry, Atkins, Stengle, Miers, Knevitt, Holmes, Bruhn, Jeka, Bowes.

In my opinion, this is just like Richmond adding Hopper and Taranto to: Broad, Balta, Graham, Bolton, Dow, Rioli, Short, Baker, etc.

There is a right time and a wrong time to bring in the top-ups, and much of it depends on the state of the list. I think the timing is wrong for Geelong now the same way it was wrong for Richmond.

My point around getting the best available that year is a sort of counter point to the whole right time/wrong time of who to bring in. Are you bringing in a best 22 player? Who are they replacing and how long will they be in the team?

Every list spot is still worth something and therefore there isn't really a free hit. We picked up Naismith, but if he ends up being no good and doesn't play again, we've wasted a spot that couple have otherwise gone to a more promising selection.

Given Richmond's retirements over the past few years, we have quite a bit of unproven youth (held out by older stalwarts continuing their careers) and so Hopper and Taranto are best 22 players we were able to bring in. They are probably 1-2 years older than we would have liked, and I reckon we contracted them 1 year too many each, but they improved our list.

Oliver and Smith to Geelong would be high risk high reward type players but if I was their list manager and both these guys said they want to come I would do that deal in a heartbeat.

I think Geelong should be considering what they can achieve whilst Danger, Cameron, Guthrie are still playing and go hard for the best available. They've drafted and traded well so I think can take a couple of gambles. Similar to Melbourne getting Grundy. He was available and they figured he would extend their flag window.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Ok? Not really sure what that has to do with my point.
Is picking up a Dangerfield and Cameron equivalent on unders again part of the plan? If so, it would be pretty hard to argue against it.

Picking up Oliver's $1m a year long-term contract is a bit different from bending over Adelaide for their best player though...

The chance we pick up Oliver's $1m contract is exactly zero. Why are you speculating on something that so obviously won't happen?

 

[Keeper]

My point around getting the best available that year is a sort of counter point to the whole right time/wrong time of who to bring in. Are you bringing in a best 22 player? Who are they replacing and how long will they be in the team?

Every list spot is still worth something and therefore there isn't really a free hit. We picked up Naismith, but if he ends up being no good and doesn't play again, we've wasted a spot that couple have otherwise gone to a more promising selection.

Given Richmond's retirements over the past few years, we have quite a bit of unproven youth (held out by older stalwarts continuing their careers) and so Hopper and Taranto are best 22 players we were able to bring in. They are probably 1-2 years older than we would have liked, and I reckon we contracted them 1 year too many each, but they improved our list.

Oliver and Smith to Geelong would be high risk high reward type players but if I was their list manager and both these guys said they want to come I would do that deal in a heartbeat.

I think Geelong should be considering what they can achieve whilst Danger, Cameron, Guthrie are still playing and go hard for the best available. They've drafted and traded well so I think can take a couple of gambles. Similar to Melbourne getting Grundy. He was available and they figured he would extend their flag window.

Well, at the end of the day what matters is winning the flag.

If topping up helps a team win a flag, even one there can be no good argument against it.

If it doesn't win a flag, then you have to think about the long-term effects of what you've done. All of Titch, O'Meara, Wingard were good enough for our best 22, and so were Scully, Patton, Frost, Hartigan, Phillips, etc. Problem is, we didn't win any flags, and resulted in a bit of a problem with the state of our list.

It was even worse for North Melbourne. Picked up guys like Jasper Pittard, Jared Polec(on big money), Dom Tyson, Aaron Hall, Josh Walker... the rest is history.

Taranto and Hopper might improve your list, and will be around for 5-6 years... but who will they be playing alongside? Can Richmond win a flag in the next 5-6 years with Taranto and Hopper playing alongside Dow, Cumberland, Koschitzke, Baker, Ryan, Rioli, etc? Not for me, therefore I don't think those trades were a good idea.

 

[Keeper]

The chance we pick up Oliver's $1m contract is exactly zero. Why are you speculating on something that so obviously won't happen?

I dunno, maybe it has something to do with the fact that your club is being linked to him? On a board dedicated to the discussion of such links? And that any scenario involving him moving would likely be driven by Melbourne wanting to get his money off their books? Much like how Gold Coast literally gave Geelong pick 7 just to take Jack Bowes contract off their books.

My original post in this thread was speculating that being linked to all these high-profile players suggests Geelong are looking to take the Richmond 2022 route this off-season, and that I personally think that's not a good idea. There's no need to get so touchy.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I dunno, maybe it has something to do with the fact that your club is being linked to him? On a board dedicated to the discussion of such links? And that any scenario involving him moving would likely be driven by Melbourne wanting to get his money off their books? Much like how Gold Coast literally gave Geelong pick 7 just to take Jack Bowes contract off their books.

My original post in this thread was speculating that being linked to all these high-profile players suggests Geelong are looking to take the Richmond 2022 route this off-season, and that I personally think that's not a good idea. There's no need to get so touchy.

No club in the land would fork out $1m a season for Oliver in his current state let alone the club who has been religious about but overpaying players for decades.

The only way he moves is if s**t hits the fan again and they move him on as part of a massive clean out.

In that case Melbourne will take a second rounder and getting rid of half his salary in a heartbeat.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Maybe so, but one key difference between now and then would be that it's not nearly as trivial to sign the equivalent of Dangerfield and Cameron on unders. And while Tom Hawkins was only 26-27 years old 2015, he might as well have been 20 years old in hindsight because he had some insane longevity.

Going from Hawkins and Cameron to Knevitt and Jeka will be very rough. High quality key-forwards are very difficult to find and develop, and Geelong in particular have been heavily dependent on both of them for the last few years.

Why on earth would we be fielding Knevitt or Jeka as key forwards? One is a wing/mid the other a key defender. And Cameron has only played 59 hands for us, though we were extremely dependent on Hawkins 2014-2020

 

[year of the cat]

That was largely on the back of picking up Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron, two of the best players in the competition. Dangerfield was basically a free agent too because of how weak Adelaide are at the trade table. Cameron was basically swapped in for Tim Kelly.

I would classify 2022 as eeking out a flag with an aging list at just the right time. For the most part in the last 10 years, Geelong have been a finals/top 4 side, but there were always 1-2 teams that were just better and always ready to beat them in the finals. 2022 worked out well because Melbourne dropped off, Bulldogs dropped off, Tigers were still dropping off, Sydney weren't quite there yet and you just managed to scrape past the pies in the QF.

2024 is very different to 2020 & earlier. Now all of your best players are 30+ years old. Sure you have some promising young talent, but so did Richmond in 2022, Hawthorn in 2016-2019, Brisbane in 2009, etc. It's not really a good enough foundation to build a Premiership team from, and I think it would be very poor timing to start targeting the expensive mid-aged players at the end of this year.

Tend to agree. I’d personally be hitting the draft for another year or two then look to bring in the experienced heads.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The chance we pick up Oliver's $1m contract is exactly zero. Why are you speculating on something that so obviously won't happen?

I would say a 1% chance of happening

99% chance the interest keeps Adelaide honest at the trade table

I wouldn't say no to Smith

The terms of trade for Clayton Oliver would have to be so favourable I don't see it happening

 

[Footy Smarts]

I dunno, maybe it has something to do with the fact that your club is being linked to him? On a board dedicated to the discussion of such links? And that any scenario involving him moving would likely be driven by Melbourne wanting to get his money off their books? Much like how Gold Coast literally gave Geelong pick 7 just to take Jack Bowes contract off their books.

My original post in this thread was speculating that being linked to all these high-profile players suggests Geelong are looking to take the Richmond 2022 route this off-season, and that I personally think that's not a good idea. There's no need to get so touchy.

You joined this week and have 50-odd posts.

3 of those lament how bad Geelong having to rely on Jeka will be. Seriously? You've talked about Emerson Jeka in the last week more than any Geelong poster.

You talk about how great our core and kids were when we recruited Dangerfield but include Stewart who wasn't even on our list. You compare it to our "core" now but leave out SDK, Henry (one or other), Close, Z Guthrie, O'Sullivan, etc but somehow find a spot for Emerson Jeka of all people.

Then you decide that the club notorious for never overpaying on salaries is going to fork out $1m+ over 6 years for Clayton Oliver.

Come on mate. You need to improve your trolling.

 

[TheCattery2007]

What if I told you the possible Round 1 team has 5 first round draft picks that didn’t play in the 2022 Premiership?

Future is bright at the Cattery.




Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com

 

[CatToTheFuture]

You joined this week and have 50-odd posts.

3 of those lament how bad Geelong having to rely on Jeka will be. Seriously? You've talked about Emerson Jeka in the last week more than any Geelong poster.

You talk about how great our core and kids were when we recruited Dangerfield but include Stewart who wasn't even on our list. You compare it to our "core" now but leave out SDK, Henry (one or other), Close, Z Guthrie, O'Sullivan, etc but somehow find a spot for Emerson Jeka of all people.

Then you decide that the club notorious for never overpaying on salaries is going to fork out $1m+ over 6 years for Clayton Oliver.

Come on mate. You need to improve your trolling.

I think 5% of cats fans could pick jeka out of a line up

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think 5% of cats fans could pick jeka out of a line up

Try 0.5%. I'd struggle to pick him out of a lineup of Geelong players. I reckon I'd get down to him, Oscar Murdoch and Phoenix Foster and be struggling.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Try 0.5%. I'd struggle to pick him out of a lineup of Geelong players. I reckon I'd get down to him, Oscar Murdoch and Phoenix Foster and be struggling.

Mate you'd better acquaint yourself. I thought he was just a stop gap between an aging Jake Kolodjashnij and a skinny pick 11 Connor O’Sullivan but apparently he's our next Key forward!

 

[Footy Smarts]

Mate you'd better acquaint yourself. I thought he was just a stop gap between an aging Jake Kolodjashnij and a skinny pick 11 Connor O’Sullivan but apparently he's our next Key forward!

What's he paying for the Coleman?

Just imagine the fun we'll have on the very slight chance he does become a player.