Opinion GWS 2023 Finals prospects

[MelbourneGWS]

At what used to be the half way point of a season, we are 4-7 and sitting 14th in the ladder.

Are we going to make the finals this year?

It’s such an even competition for the last couple of finals spot, and I definitely think we are in the hunt. Sure, a couple of things do have to work out for us, but given our fantastic win against Geelong (in Geelong) and the way the underdogs won on Saturday, we are just 2 games away (albeit with an adverse percentage) from the 7th spot, with 12 games still left.

The next 3 games before the bye are all winnable. We play Richmond (at Giants Stadium), Norths (away) and then Fremantle (at Giants Stadium). Win all 3 and we will be 7-7 as we go to the bye, and even 2 wins will have us at 6-8 and in the hunt.

 

[sydney_gws]

Need a good run with injuries,
but it is possible.

 

[Gigantic]

Unlikely but possible.

Our run home looks like:

vs Richmond
@ North Melbourne (in Hobart)
vs Fremantle
BYE
@ Melbourne (in NT)
vs Hawthorn
@ Adelaide
vs Gold Coast
@ West Bulldogs (in Ballarat)
vs Sydney
@ Port Adelaide
vs Essendon
@ Carlton

We play everyone above us from 6th to 13th (and even all the way down to 17th)

So that's an opportunity to take points off them while gaining points for ourselves.

 

[Giant Strides]

Possible but very, very unlikely. Would need us to (a) improve and (b) achieve consistency that we haven't & (c) win on the road regularly.

 

[Giant Pete]

Let’s just focus on this week and trying to win two in a row.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Fox’s analysis of the fixture after the end of round 11, with 12 games left for the season.

But as we said, it’s even, other than maybe Collingwood at the top. So even teams like Carlton (4-6-1), GWS (4-7) and dare we say Richmond (3-7-1) can think “well, all we need to do is win nine of our last 12, and we can make it”.

So if it’s a race to 13, who’s in pole position? Well, here’s a quick little metric.
Games against bottom 10 left on fixture
9 - St Kilda [currently 7-4] (SYD, RIC, WC, GC, NM, HAW, CAR, RIC, GEE)
9 - Western Bulldogs [7-4] (GEE, NM, SYD, FRE, GWS, RIC, HAW, WC, GEE)
8 - Essendon [6-5] (NM, CAR, FRE, GEE, SYD, WC, NM, GWS)
7 - Melbourne [7-4] (CAR, GWS, RIC, NM, CAR, HAW, SYD)
7 - Adelaide [6-5] (GC, WC, NM, GWS, GC, SYD, WC)
7 - Fremantle [6-5] (RIC, GWS, CAR, SYD, GEE, WC, HAW)
7 - GWS Giants [4-7] (RIC, FRE, NM, HAW, GC, SYD, CAR)
6 - Carlton [4-6-1] (GC, HAW, FRE, WC, GC, GWS)
6 - Gold Coast [5-6] (CAR, HAW, GWS, SYD, CAR, NM)
6 - Richmond [3-6-1] (FRE, GWS, SYD, WC, HAW, NM)
6 - Sydney [5-6] (WC, GEE, RIC, FRE, GWS, GC)
3 - Geelong [5-6] (SYD, FRE, NM)

AFL Round 11 Talking Pts: ‘Sweet’ revenge as Hawks prove critics wrong; Freo urged to trade All-Aus level star

‘Sweet’ revenge as Hawks prove list critics wrong; Freo urged to make shock trade: AFL Talking Pts

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Orange crush]

If things keep progressing and we get a few players back there’s a chance …. Lot of average teams around this year do a logjam for 7-8th places I think

 

[PaythePerryman]

I don't see it happening. I feel like it's been an eternity since we have won 2 in a row. Might have to start with that.
If we can get past Richmond and North I'd go into the Freo game with a bit of hope before the Bye

 

[JC100]

Unlikely however there is t much that needs to change for us to end up going on a run. Outside of the game against the pies we have been in every match despite missing players.

Get through to the bye at 6 or 7 wins and have leek, davis, cumming, Haynes, HH, Kelly, stone, Wehr available with Taylor not far away all either pushing for a spot or coming straight back in.

Briggs has been a real step up on Flynn, although I’m happy to be getting games into Cadman (long game) his output hasn’t been there and Riccardi was able to show what he can bring to the table on the weekend.

For the first time in years we finally have a few avenues to goal with XO, Binga, Toby & hogan all showing they can kick multiples.

The back 6 is simply 1 out 1 in and has held up really well all season. They will be really hard to penetrate when the defensive pressure though the midfield becomes more consistent.

 

[Powkid]

Pretty tough, would be a better chance if the draw be was more favourable by playing the Eagles and Roos twice.

Hopefully “the system” continues to click as it did last week with that elite pressure, then you never know. But let’s just try and win a few in a row first


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[sydney_gws]

I hope we do. Other teams boards are saying we will do a salary cap dump with a first rounder tor Whitfield. Surely we don't that.

 

[PaythePerryman]

I hope we do. Other teams boards are saying we will do a salary cap dump with a first rounder tor Whitfield. Surely we don't that.

Lol. We won't do that.

 

[Giant Strides]

I hope we do. Other teams boards are saying we will do a salary cap dump with a first rounder for Whitfield. Surely we don't that.

Other boards' posters are idiots.

We won't do that.

 

[sydney_gws]

Other boards' posters are idiots.

We won't do that.

We could offer to trade Whitfield and pick 12 for Hawthorn's 2024r1. But I doubt that happens.

 

[Giant Strides]

We could offer to trade Whitfield and pick 12 for Hawthorn's 2024r1. But I doubt that happens.

So do I.

And that's not a salary dump. The idiots think we'll trade #5 AND Whitfield for a third round pick, similar to Gold Coast's trade of Bowes. I doubt we'll trade Whitfield at all, but your suggestion (or something similar) would be a middle ground. I guess if the TPP situation is dire (as some commentators reckon) then we might consider something like your suggestion.

 

[sydney_gws]

So do I.

And that's not a salary dump. The idiots think we'll trade #5 AND Whitfield for a third round pick, similar to Gold Coast's trade of Bowes. I doubt we'll trade Whitfield at all, but your suggestion (or something similar) would be a middle ground. I guess if the TPP situation is dire (as some commentators reckon) then we might consider something like your suggestion.

I don't understand how tpp can be dire. Surely they have a spreadsheet with contract values for each player projected into the future, with assumptions of the new contracts for draftees etc.
Surely the AFL has a salary cap auditor who sees this as well.

 

[Colonial]

I don't understand how tpp can be dire. Surely they have a spreadsheet with contract values for each player projected into the future, with assumptions of the new contracts for draftees etc.
Surely the AFL has a salary cap auditor who sees this as well.

We have also got rid of a ton of talent.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

We have also got rid of a ton of talent.

Yes, as I thought that was what losing Hopper and Taranto was about? Giving us the $ to sign players like Tom Green and Finn Callaghan as well as others?

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Playing Finals in 2023 looking a bit bleak after today’s loss. We are now 4-8 and to make the finals, need to win at least 7-8 of our remaining 11 games, and hope other results go our way. Lose our next games to both Norths and Fremantle, and we will be going to the bye knowing we are done for 2023 and need to plan for 2024.

 

[BarryAglett]

Finals was only wishful thinking, I'm afraid. I think we can double our win total to 8, but that's about it. Overall, it's shaping to be a solid development year.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

The record of teams after the bye over a decade. Not promising for us as wr average a 3-1-6 record, which is the equal third worst of all teams.

Beware the bye: How your club fares after its mid-season break

Michael Whiting takes a look at how your club fares after its mid-season bye

www.afl.com.au

 

[Giant Strides]

The record of teams after the bye over a decade. Not promising for us as wr average a 3-1-6 record, which is the equal third worst of all teams.

Beware the bye: How your club fares after its mid-season break

Michael Whiting takes a look at how your club fares after its mid-season bye

www.afl.com.au

Yes, we tend to come back from our bye round holiday an extra week afterwards.

 

[Orange Agent]

I don't care where we finish. New game style has taken some time. We are playing a brand of football that is good to watch again. There is some development still to come. Kingsley has proven to be a great choice as coach. No wholesale changes needed in terms of list management, just needs some time.

 

[Powkid]

Not concerned where we finish also.
The last 2 weeks have shown an exciting brand of footy to watch! Continue to bring that intense tackling pressure and tidy up disposals and entry into 50 and we are a finals outfit.
Really felt like the new game plan has clicked the last 2 weeks, very exciting to watch!! I walked away from the Richmond happy with that display. Next year we’ll be ready for future finals


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[MelbourneGWS]

At 5-8 after today’s win, we are still in with a sniff. We are currently just 2 wins (and percentage) off 6th spot with 10 games still to go. The competition for the bottom end of the final spots is very close, and whilst we will probably need to win at least 7 of our remaining games and hope results go our way, we are still alive for the finals race.