How will the Draft be affected by Essendon's guilty verdict?

[dlanod]

People don't realise the value of multiple drafts of draft picks. We made the same mistakes with draft pick back in the mid 00's when we were trading players like Richard Cole and Ty Zantuck for picks. We are still being punished (with karma) for these monumenal screw ups. Carlton ditto with those two drafts along with the (attempted) quick re build of drafting spuds.

Melbourne and Brisbane effectively missed out on several drafts over the course of the '00s due to terrible drafting. They provide other examples of what missing out of those draft picks can (though not necessarily) result in.

 

[Yoda_]

Melbourne and Brisbane effectively missed out on several drafts over the course of the '00s due to terrible drafting. They provide other examples of what missing out of those draft picks can (though not necessarily) result in.

Do you see list management as essentially the same thing as drafting/talent identification or are they different areas?

 

[dlanod]

Do you see list management as essentially the same thing as drafting/talent identification or are they different areas?

IMO list management in the AFL is largely drafting with a minor amount of identifying trade/FA opportunities. It's not like other sports with more player movement.

 

[Taylor]

Do you see list management as essentially the same thing as drafting/talent identification or are they different areas?

I see list management as the overarching title the encompasses:
Adding talent (generally teams with more successful high picks do better)
Keeping an age and experience profile on your books suitable to your goals (generally older teams do better)
Moving players on at the right time.

Drafting is key because you can only work with what you have and it is very, very hard to get value when trying to secure a top pick in the 22-25 year old age bracket if you missed out on them in the draft. Clubs have to give up equal or better value to get that player and if you're missing the value on your list to begin with it just digs a bigger hole.

That is why Carlton copped it extra hard.

 

[Procrastinator35]

I see list management as the overarching title the encompasses:
Adding talent (generally teams with more successful high picks do better)
Keeping an age and experience profile on your books suitable to your goals (generally older teams do better)
Moving players on at the right time.

Drafting is key because you can only work with what you have and it is very, very hard to get value when trying to secure a top pick in the 22-25 year old age bracket if you missed out on them in the draft. Clubs have to give up equal or better value to get that player and if you're missing the value on your list to begin with it just digs a bigger hole.

That is why Carlton copped it extra hard.

Not altogether certain that we can blame Carlton's current & continued malaise on their draft penalties some 13 years ago....List management/incompetence yes.

 

[HalAlaric]

Not altogether certain that we can blame Carlton's current & continued malaise on their draft penalties some 13 years ago....List management/incompetence yes.

Hey! We have been s**t/mediocre for 15 years thanks very much. I look forward to beating the Hawks in 2016 though

 

[NOCLUE]

As for Essendons 2 million fine, Don't they only have to pay half the rest suspended.
So really they only pay 70k more and Carltons draft penalties were far more severe.
Doesn't really add up considering their crimes

 

[Procrastinator35]

As for Essendons 2 million fine, Don't they only have to pay half the rest suspended.
So really they only pay 70k more and Carltons draft penalties were far more severe.
Doesn't really add up considering their crimes

Seriously?

Were Carlton kicked out of finals?....Did they lose their 12 best players for a year with the possibility for them never to return?

That's 2 years down the gurgler, with another 2 in between thwarted by demoralization & with yet more pain to come.

Some perspective....Please!

 

[NOCLUE]

Kicked out of a finals series their drugged up players should never of been in.
A long drawn out saga of their own making with constant legal challenges.
They could of taken the deal and it would of been over and nearly forgotten by now they would of missed preseason and a couple of h & a games.
I live in QLD and you don't even hear about the Cronulla players being drug cheats anymore.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

As for Essendons 2 million fine, Don't they only have to pay half the rest suspended.
So really they only pay 70k more and Carltons draft penalties were far more severe.
Doesn't really add up considering their crimes

More like the punishment doesn't fit the crime.

 

[NOCLUE]

More like the punishment doesn't fit the crime.

It never does, I just hope most if not all of the 12 stay. Carlton finally seem to be getting their act together, It's more satisfying beating a strong
Essendon than a weakened Essendon

 

[Yoda_]

It never does, I just hope most if not all of the 12 stay. Carlton finally seem to be getting their act together, It's more satisfying beating a strong
Essendon than a weakened Essendon

And our games will still be close.. Even with top up players

 

[Procrastinator35]

Kicked out of a finals series their drugged up players should never of been in.
A long drawn out saga of their own making with constant legal challenges.
They could of taken the deal and it would of been over and nearly forgotten by now they would of missed preseason and a couple of h & a games.
I live in QLD and you don't even hear about the Cronulla players being drug cheats anymore.

Well yeah....We all know they should have took the deal....But a certain person - who shall remain nameless - put his own ego/reputation/interests over & above the club, its players & fans/supporters.

Carlton were indirectly compensated by the AFL, in their turning a blind-eye to Judd's visy deal, which both enabled his signing & stood outside of the salary-cap.

 

[NOCLUE]

Well yeah....We all know they should have took the deal....But a certain person - who shall remain nameless - put his own ego/reputation/interests over & above the club, its players & fans/supporters.

Carlton were indirectly compensated by the AFL, in their turning a blind-eye to Judd's visy deal, which both enabled his signing & stood outside of the salary-cap.

Well I can't argue with that. They did get a good deal with Judd. And he who can't be named is still throwing everyone he can under that bus to try and make himself look good.

 

[NOCLUE]

And our games will still be close.. Even with top up players

I hope so. Win or lose I would rather watch a close game decided by a goal or two than a blow out.
There just boring and I have better things to do with my time especially up here in sunny QLD

 

[citizen-erased]

Hard call this.
of the 12 players missing, Watson, Heppell and our 2 best defenders are the ones that hurt. Essentially our 4 best are out.
Had the appeal gone the other way and they were playing, we are still in the first year of a new coach who i believe would have focused on our youth along with our core seniors and had a 2 year plan to get back to finals.

1-We likely would have finished in the bottom 10. We're still short on tall forwards. Our rucks are either injury prone or raw. But the other side of the coin is a very good backline and a pretty decent midfield.
2-The top ups we have are covering some gaps quite nicely. We're yet to see who comes in for Hurley and Hooker though, and that's where i think we need to focus hard on. Not a lot of AFL ready KPD talent out there.

We may yet finish outside the bottom 4.
Carlton still have a poor list in terms of experience and have a new coach to adjust to.
Brisbane are still in development mode.
Saints are still very young.
Suns are a big ? given the loss of Dixon and Bennell and obvious reliance on Ablett.

If we finish above those 4, i don't think there is much impact.
Flipside - we get scored on heavily and lose most of our games. Finishing last would mean we'd be about the best list to ever get pick 1.

We'd go into season 2017 with our best 22 back + the bonus of whatever pick 1 nets us

 

[Wild Bill]

Hard call this.
of the 12 players missing, Watson, Heppell and our 2 best defenders are the ones that hurt. Essentially our 4 best are out.
Had the appeal gone the other way and they were playing, we are still in the first year of a new coach who i believe would have focused on our youth along with our core seniors and had a 2 year plan to get back to finals.

1-We likely would have finished in the bottom 10. We're still short on tall forwards. Our rucks are either injury prone or raw. But the other side of the coin is a very good backline and a pretty decent midfield.
2-The top ups we have are covering some gaps quite nicely. We're yet to see who comes in for Hurley and Hooker though, and that's where i think we need to focus hard on. Not a lot of AFL ready KPD talent out there.

We may yet finish outside the bottom 4.
Carlton still have a poor list in terms of experience and have a new coach to adjust to.
Brisbane are still in development mode.
Saints are still very young.
Suns are a big ? given the loss of Dixon and Bennell and obvious reliance on Ablett.

If we finish above those 4, i don't think there is much impact.
Flipside - we get scored on heavily and lose most of our games. Finishing last would mean we'd be about the best list to ever get pick 1.

We'd go into season 2017 with our best 22 back + the bonus of whatever pick 1 nets us

You were third favourite for the spoon before the suspensions. You were right in the mix to finish last. Watson and Stanton might not ever play again.

I would much prefer GWS list of 2013 than essendons.

 

[citizen-erased]

You were third favourite for the spoon before the suspensions. You were right in the mix to finish last. Watson and Stanton might not ever play again.

I would much prefer GWS list of 2013 than essendons.

A list missing Watson, Heppell, Hurley, Hooker, Stanton, Hibberd, Myers and Colyer from it's best 22 vs a list with Treloar, Shiel, Cameron, Shaw, Ward, Mumford, Davis, Scully, Whitfield, Coniglio, Smith, Greene, Patton, plus just having added Boyd, Kelly and McCarthy????
Big call.

 

[beowulf]

Seriously?

Were Carlton kicked out of finals?....Did they lose their 12 best players for a year with the possibility for them never to return?

That's 2 years down the gurgler, with another 2 in between thwarted by demoralization & with yet more pain to come.

Some perspective....Please!

The point, from which we will probably not agree, is that Essendon got to the Finals by a program of Performance Enhancement by drugs. Kicking them out of the finals was the least that could be done. The effects of this drug program was made to last for longer, to produce long term performance enhancement.
I don't think any other club in any sport in history has been caught making such a systematic and widespread method of cheating. The only possible comparison is the drug cheating in East German and Soviet athletics in the '70's.
Carlton's crimes were stupid, but they had minimal 'performance enhancement': we still ended up at the bottom. Overpaying a handful of players is simply not in the same league as Essendon's cheating. To think that the punishments should be comparable is just not reasonable.

At the time of our indiscretions, I wondered if we had made the right decision by 'coming clean' and throwing ourselves at the AFL's mercies. But by getting it over and done with, we could move on. We had a burden unlike any other and we are still recovering from it. Fair enough. The members removed the guilty parties in the board at the first opportunity and everyone else involved also left shortly after. It gave us a chance to get a new start. We handled it poorly, but, again, that as our problem.
Essendon chose to go along a different path and it was the wrong one. They must see that, but they have tried for years not to see anything they did not want to see. It has made the AFL suffer for years, not just Essendon. None of the people involved have been willing to accept reasonable responsibility, nor have the Essendon members made the hard choices and flicked the perpetrators.
They have lost years with their 'demoralization', but that is their own fault, a direct consequence of their holding action and unwillingness to even agree that they did wrong. This was not a penalty put on them by the AFL. If anything, the AFL has tried to mitigate the possible negative outcomes for Essendon, to their own detriment, and has since the issue first appeared.
If any of the 12 players does not return, it is not the AFL's fault, but Essendon's, for the way they have been misrepresented, lied to and manipulated. That the players then lied over 30 times to ASADA in statutory declarations does not make them innocent, but willing accomplices. I can only assume that this was due to Essendon's 'suggestions'. If the players want out of the club that involved them in this, then this is reasonable: it is a predictable consequence of what has happened to them.
Another unanswered question: will any other team want convicted drug cheats in their team in future?

One last point: Essendon's legal actions had little chance of success at any time, but have managed to drag this out for an extended period. Had John Elliott and Carlton chosen to fight the AFL legally, they would have won. Easily and definitely: the League's rules on player payments, et al, are a demonstrable restraint on trade and cannot stand up in court. Elliott knew it, as did the AFL. The effects of a win in that case would have had ramifications for the AFL for years. I am glad we chose not to go down that path: the results would not have been predictable and would only help the non Victorian teams (and maybe Collingwood, but even that is debatable).

 

[beowulf]

Kicked out of a finals series their drugged up players should never of been in.
A long drawn out saga of their own making with constant legal challenges.
They could of taken the deal and it would of been over and nearly forgotten by now they would of missed preseason and a couple of h & a games.
I live in QLD and you don't even hear about the Cronulla players being drug cheats anymore.

The Cronulla case is an excellent example to compare to Essendon's: perhaps the only comparable case. I think they (Cronulla) got off remarkably easily, but that is another tale. The consequences for them are basically over. Unreasonable as this is, they are free to move on with their respective lives. Ancient History.
Essendon's case has a good chance of lasting longer than the 30 Year War.

 

[beowulf]

We may yet finish outside the bottom 4.
Carlton still have a poor list in terms of experience and have a new coach to adjust to.
Brisbane are still in development mode.
Saints are still very young.
Suns are a big ? given the loss of Dixon and Bennell and obvious reliance on Ablett.

If we finish above those 4, i don't think there is much impact.
Flipside - we get scored on heavily and lose most of our games. Finishing last would mean we'd be about the best list to ever get pick 1.

We'd go into season 2017 with our best 22 back + the bonus of whatever pick 1 nets us

I think this is the reason why nobody wants Essendon to get pick #1 for 2016. They will be seen to be prospering from their guilt, instead of being punished for it.

 

[beowulf]

I hope so. Win or lose I would rather watch a close game decided by a goal or two than a blow out.
There just boring and I have better things to do with my time especially up here in sunny QLD

The AFL and most supporters would want this as well. Bums on seats is the AFL mantra and close games help. Provided that the 'bad guys' actually lose, most supporters would be happy.

 

[citizen-erased]

I think this is the reason why nobody wants Essendon to get pick #1 for 2016. They will be seen to be prospering from their guilt, instead of being punished for it.

completely understand that sentiment.
it doesnt feel quite right

That said, it's a strong draft and it might just mean we are robbing Carlton (who we still have to finish behind) of their choice of player with their first pick.
Not sure us getting 1 influences much outside the top 8 picks as we would have landed there anyway had we had a full list to choose from.

What it may influence is what we do at the trade table.

We haven't dipped into the trading of future picks and high profile free agency (since Goddard).
With a new coach and clearing the suspensions at years end, i expect us to use some cap space to target a couple of gaps. Notably 2 mids to replace Goddard & Watson

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Essendon will get pick 1 if they finish last end of story.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I have a question for the whingers.

Would you complain at having acess to pick 1 if your club was in Essendons position?