If we finish 5th

[Au_Blue#24]

I believe now a top four spot is unachievable. If we finish 5th - we play 8th at home depending on who 6th and 7th are.

Heres a few scenarios

1. we finsih 5th and play 8th at subi if the game between 6th and 7th is played at the G

2. we finish 6th and play 7th at subi if the game between 5th and 8th is played at the G

3. we finish 7th and play at subi if freo finish 6th

You get the idea.

Thoughts

 

[Mr Eagle]

The AFL may yet bank a game in week one if it smells an attendance-related fiasco on its way...

 

[Mead]

I did a lot of number crunching after the loss... A top 4 spot is not impossible- the balance of probabilities probably falls against us after todays result, but its still there- we need two pretty big wins to peg back some percentage, but aside from that..

 

[Sera]

IF we lose the Derby [Fremantle would have to be favourite at this stage], I think the ladder will look something like this at the end of round 22...

Port 72
Brisbane 62
Adelaide 56
Sydney 56
Essendon 56
Fremantle 56
Collingwood 52
West Coast 52

Thats with Essendon winning in round 22. IF Collingwood win, it would look more like this...

Port 72
Brisbane 62
Adelaide 56
Collingwood 56
Sydney 56
Fremantle 56
West Coast 52
Essendon 52

So I'm guessing either a Western Derby or another Final vs Essendon.. either way we are playing @ the MCG.

 

[Fossil]

A West Coast V Freo final at the G. What a joke that would be!! That's one of the few things that have made me laugh today.If that is the case I'ld love to be a fly on the wall at AFL house when they draw up the finals fixtures!

 

[pauljam]

Originally posted by Sera
IF we lose the Derby [Fremantle would have to be favourite at this stage], I think the ladder will look something like this at the end of round 22...

Port 72
Brisbane 62
Adelaide 56
Sydney 56
Essendon 56
Fremantle 56
Collingwood 52
West Coast 52

Thats with Essendon winning in round 22. IF Collingwood win, it would look more like this...

Port 72
Brisbane 62
Adelaide 56
Collingwood 56
Sydney 56
Fremantle 56
West Coast 52
Essendon 52

So I'm guessing either a Western Derby or another Final vs Essendon.. either way we are playing @ the MCG.

The funny thing is that with your first scenario above, IF we beat the Dockers (I know it looks tough at the moment) then we will be on 56 pts. We have a far better % than Essendon, and Freo and just above Sydney!

WHICH with option 1 above leaves us 4th .....:

4th will give us a double chance but it also gives us trip to AAMI to face Port who flogged us so badly our confidence still hasnt recovered?

Anyway - still a lot water to flow under the bridge before finals time. Lets get the Dees out of the way with Gardy back and firing and we'll see what happens.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Originally posted by Sera
So I'm guessing either a Western Derby or another Final vs Essendon.. either way we are playing @ the MCG.

Actually, it wouldn't be at the MCG. Because a Vic side (Collingwood) would have a guaranteed home game in week 2 of the finals, the AFL said they would bank in the 1st week instead of the previously promised second week.