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KA's Dream Team bets
- Thread starter Keystone agony
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- Sep 24, 2010
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Disappointing Sunday with Douglas getting tagged (even with Dangerfield back) and still only just falling 4 points short of Thompson and Murphy going over his line even with the Bird tag. Watson and Hartlett bets came through to at least keep me in the positive for the round.
Round 19 totals:
11-0-8 for +3.38U
YTD:
80-2-65 for +29.48U
Round 19 totals:
11-0-8 for +3.38U
YTD:
80-2-65 for +29.48U
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Ended up roughly 4U ahead for the week
Disappointed with Stanton a bit im guessing injury coz he lined up exaclty how i liked just didnt get the points and a huge demolition didnt help his cause.
Disappointed with Stanton a bit im guessing injury coz he lined up exaclty how i liked just didnt get the points and a huge demolition didnt help his cause.
Couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the lock on Douglas. His -3 point second quarter didn't help the cause. Thommo even did his bit with 5 FA.
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Just the one early bet so far.
Rockliff under 109.5 @1.85 (2U)
Simple, Moloney is back and that is bad news for Rockliff. 109.5 is a big line for someone that will most likely be spending a lot of time forward.
Rockliff under 109.5 @1.85 (2U)
Simple, Moloney is back and that is bad news for Rockliff. 109.5 is a big line for someone that will most likely be spending a lot of time forward.
Did Rockliff not play midfield 2 weeks ago when Moloney last played? I thought Rocky had played midfield since both Moloney and Black were missing. Surely Vossy wouldn't be that crazy to to put him forward after last weeks effort and all his recent form.
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He does go into the middle a bit more with Black out but no where near the same amount as what he does with Moloney out if the team. With Moloney out, Rockliff attends more ball ups than any other Brisbane midfielder.
Unfortunately Rockliff can play as a forward and Moloney can't so I'm expecting Rockliff to spend some time forward. It is crazy Vossy though so nobody knows really.
Either way, the last two games Rockliff has played with Moloney and no Black he has scored 86 (Moloney subbed off in first half) and 97 (Moloney injured in last quarter).
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Just got back from work so it's a bit late but just the one bet tonight with Roughead over 87.5 for 1U @1.87 (Luxbet).
Will post the rest of my bets a bit later.
Will post the rest of my bets a bit later.
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Fell just short.
Ellis over Rance, Maguire @2.70 (4U) Sportingbet
Went big on this one. His scores at the MCG (excluding sub affected games) are 85, 155, 112, 72, 95 and 102.
Leuenburger over Hanley @1.95 (1U) Sportsbet
Expecting White to go to Hanley and is a very good match up for him. Leuenburger is up against Maric who has struggled this year.
Barlow over Fyfe @1.72 (2U) Sportsbet
Expecting Fyfe to get the Whiley tag whilst Barlow should again run around by himself.
Ellis over Rance, Maguire @2.70 (4U) Sportingbet
Went big on this one. His scores at the MCG (excluding sub affected games) are 85, 155, 112, 72, 95 and 102.
Rance and Maguire average in the 70's and Ellis is just a class above those two DT wise. Into 2.50 now.
Liberatore under 103.5 @1.87 (2U) Sportingbet
His form has been too good to ignore and he is up against Carlton who put on 2 or 3 tags. Expecting Curnow to go to Griffen and Cachia to get the job on Libba.
Wingard under 92.5 @1.75 (1U) Sportingbet
Unfortunately I was away for work this week so put the bet on early. Was expecting T.Hunt to run with him but he has been dropped. I still can't see Geelong letting Wingard run free after his performance last week but just not as confident in the bet anymore.
Dixon over M.Jones @1.95 (2U) Sportingbet
Rucks score very well against Melbourne and Dixon will be spending a lot of time in the ruck. Not expecting big hit out numbers but around the ground he should do very well.
Matt Jones looks to be slowing down a bit as the season goes on with scores of 45, 68 and 62 in his last 3 games.
Leuenburger over Hanley @1.95 (1U) Sportsbet
Expecting White to go to Hanley and is a very good match up for him. Leuenburger is up against Maric who has struggled this year.
Barlow over Fyfe @1.72 (2U) Sportsbet
Expecting Fyfe to get the Whiley tag whilst Barlow should again run around by himself.
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Hanley under 92.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet
As mentioned above, I believe White will tag Hanley and is a very good match up for him.
Cotchin under 110.5 (1U) Luxbet
Cotch is in good form but last time these two teams met it was Raines that went to him over Deledio. He averages 98 against Brisbane.
Deledio over Hanley, Jackson, Grigg @3 (1U) Luxbet
As mentioned in the two above, Hanley is a good chance to get tagged by White and Raines usually goes to Cotchin. Deledio scored 126 last time these two teams met and is well worth the shot in this group at $3.
I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Voss change it up and tag Deledio but going off previous match ups I like those bets.
Boak over 94.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet
Last time these two sides met Boak went head to head with Selwood and scored 116. Is averaging 98 for the year and has been in ripping form. I believe Moore will go to Selwood this time around but Boak should still avoid the tag.
Johnson under 115.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet
Expecting him to get the Cornes tag.
As mentioned above, I believe White will tag Hanley and is a very good match up for him.
Cotchin under 110.5 (1U) Luxbet
Cotch is in good form but last time these two teams met it was Raines that went to him over Deledio. He averages 98 against Brisbane.
Deledio over Hanley, Jackson, Grigg @3 (1U) Luxbet
As mentioned in the two above, Hanley is a good chance to get tagged by White and Raines usually goes to Cotchin. Deledio scored 126 last time these two teams met and is well worth the shot in this group at $3.
I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Voss change it up and tag Deledio but going off previous match ups I like those bets.
Boak over 94.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet
Last time these two sides met Boak went head to head with Selwood and scored 116. Is averaging 98 for the year and has been in ripping form. I believe Moore will go to Selwood this time around but Boak should still avoid the tag.
Johnson under 115.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet
Expecting him to get the Cornes tag.
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Grimes under 88.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet
The return of McKenzie might help out but Grimes has been tagging and his last 3 scores have been 76, 54 and 74.
Prestia over 92.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet
He averages 97 for the year and Melbourne give up big scores to midfielders that work hard to run and spread which is what Prestia excels at.
O'Keefe over 100.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet
O'Keefe over Sidebottom, McVeigh, T.Mitchell @2.75 (1U)
O'Keefe loves playing against Collingwood. Averages 140 against them with his last 3 scores being 132, 154 and 136.
Sidey is in good form and is the main worry in that group.
Hannebery over 90.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet
Hannebery over Kennedy, Cloke and Shaw @3 (1U) Luxbet
Scores of 106 and 114 in his last two games against Collingwood. When they met earlier in the year Macaffer went to Kennedy so I'm hoping that happens again. Not sure if Macaffer is suited to tagging Hannebery.
The return of McKenzie might help out but Grimes has been tagging and his last 3 scores have been 76, 54 and 74.
Prestia over 92.5 @1.87 (1U) Luxbet
He averages 97 for the year and Melbourne give up big scores to midfielders that work hard to run and spread which is what Prestia excels at.
O'Keefe over 100.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet
O'Keefe over Sidebottom, McVeigh, T.Mitchell @2.75 (1U)
O'Keefe loves playing against Collingwood. Averages 140 against them with his last 3 scores being 132, 154 and 136.
Sidey is in good form and is the main worry in that group.
Hannebery over 90.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet
Hannebery over Kennedy, Cloke and Shaw @3 (1U) Luxbet
Scores of 106 and 114 in his last two games against Collingwood. When they met earlier in the year Macaffer went to Kennedy so I'm hoping that happens again. Not sure if Macaffer is suited to tagging Hannebery.
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Dirty night last night. Sydneys midfield got absolutely dominated and Grimes decided to show up.
Just the two bets for me today.
Fyfe under 108.5 @1.87 (4U) Luxbet
Gone big on this one. Fyfe will surely get Whiley on him. Whiley has kept Pendlebury to 71 and Sylvia to 40 in his last two games.
Ward under 99.5 @1.80 (2U) Sportingbet
Will surely get Crowley after his performance last week.
Just the two bets for me today.
Fyfe under 108.5 @1.87 (4U) Luxbet
Gone big on this one. Fyfe will surely get Whiley on him. Whiley has kept Pendlebury to 71 and Sylvia to 40 in his last two games.
Ward under 99.5 @1.80 (2U) Sportingbet
Will surely get Crowley after his performance last week.
schnoods
Club Legend
Hey guys,
Been having a punt here and there on the dream team bets, just wondering if anyone has had scores etc adjusted after the game, like hours after the game before being official. (sorry to hijack thread, thought i'd ask the people who punt specifically on dreamteam etc).
Anyways short story is I had a punt today on the footy, namely Dangerfield vs Douglas. As the game was completed i did check the afl website as well as FanFooty.com on the dreamteam score, which saw Dangerfield win it by 1. Now all my sportsbet.com bets have been paid out or claimed already today but i noticed the Dangerfield bet hadn't been paid out (still pending), now curious i checked it out again the afl site as well as fanfooty, now there has been alteration in the scores, as it stands now Douglas is in front by 1, but he hasn't scored anymore, Dangerfield has lost 2 points. Has there been a countback on statistics etc? Just a bit confusing and would also leave a sour taste as i had "won" but there might be a discrepancy in the stats?
Been having a punt here and there on the dream team bets, just wondering if anyone has had scores etc adjusted after the game, like hours after the game before being official. (sorry to hijack thread, thought i'd ask the people who punt specifically on dreamteam etc).
Anyways short story is I had a punt today on the footy, namely Dangerfield vs Douglas. As the game was completed i did check the afl website as well as FanFooty.com on the dreamteam score, which saw Dangerfield win it by 1. Now all my sportsbet.com bets have been paid out or claimed already today but i noticed the Dangerfield bet hadn't been paid out (still pending), now curious i checked it out again the afl site as well as fanfooty, now there has been alteration in the scores, as it stands now Douglas is in front by 1, but he hasn't scored anymore, Dangerfield has lost 2 points. Has there been a countback on statistics etc? Just a bit confusing and would also leave a sour taste as i had "won" but there might be a discrepancy in the stats?
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Unlucky mate but it happens all the time unfortunately. Some scores may change after the game as they go back through the stats. Usually a missed tackle or a handball that counted when it shouldn't have etc. Sometimes it works in your favour, sometimes it doesn't.
A one point loss is hard enough to take yet alone when it happens like that.
schnoods
Club Legend
Ahh k, makes a bit of sense then.
Im sure the reason the bet hadn't been settled was to make sure it was official then?
Yeah it does hurt, but at the same time the coin has flipped a few times in my favour luckily. On the same game Danger field missed a shot on goal that could have one me the bet, but would have lost me a substantial bet on the match being 150 or less.
All part of the madness.
Im sure the reason the bet hadn't been settled was to make sure it was official then?
Yeah it does hurt, but at the same time the coin has flipped a few times in my favour luckily. On the same game Danger field missed a shot on goal that could have one me the bet, but would have lost me a substantial bet on the match being 150 or less.
All part of the madness.
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I got banned so was unable to put my bets up from last week but this is what i did.
Without having much on paper i liked before the round i sort of just chased and researched what the betting agencies put before me and did quite well. Can prove all of this if needed.
3U ($2.65) Ellis over Maguire and Rance WIN
2U ($1.75) Montagna over S.Mitchell WIN
2U ($2.05) Montagna over 106.5 WIN
2U ($2.25) Hayes under 87.5 WIN
2U ($1.87) J.Riewoldt over 78.5 WIN
2U ($1.75) Grigg over 85.5 WIN
2U ($1.76) K.Cornes under 99.5 WIN
2U ($1.87) Boak over 94.5 WIN
1U ($1.75) Wingard under 90.5 WIN
1U ($1.87) Liberatore under 103.5 WIN
1U ($1.87) R.Murphy under 84.5 WIN
1.5U ($1.75) Scotland over Judd WIN
1.5U ($1.88) A.Walker over R.Murphy WIN
2U ($1.90) Dixon over M.Jones WIN
3U ($1.87) N.Jones over 82.5 WIN
2U ($1.66) Sylvia over 80.5 WIN
2U ($1.87) T.Mitchell under 90.5 WIN
2U ($1.60) T.Mitchell under 95.5 WIN
1U ($1.87) Griffen under 110.5 LOSS
2U ($1.80) Leuy over 87.5 LOSS
2U ($1.95) Leuy over Hanley LOSS
2U ($1.80) Rockliff under 109.5 LOSS
2U (1.80) Gunston over Sewell LOSS (Wouldve been a win had he not got injured and subbed off, Gunston was killing it)
2U ($2.00) Harley Bennell under 92.5 LOSS
So i was killing it going into the last day of Football. + 20.155 Units
Then my big bet went
5U Ward under 99.5 (Expecting the Crowley tag) LOSS
2U Ballantyne over D.Smith and Tomlinson LOSS
2U Scully over D.Smith LOSS
So that left me +11.155 Units up for the week
Sam Jacobs overs was the other one i was gonna bet really big on but missed the chance due to sport comp on sunday and the odds werent up, wouldve won that.
So not bad considering some big bets like Ward 5U, against D.Smtih 4u, Leuy 4u didnt come through and yet i still ended up very nicely.
Without having much on paper i liked before the round i sort of just chased and researched what the betting agencies put before me and did quite well. Can prove all of this if needed.
3U ($2.65) Ellis over Maguire and Rance WIN
2U ($1.75) Montagna over S.Mitchell WIN
2U ($2.05) Montagna over 106.5 WIN
2U ($2.25) Hayes under 87.5 WIN
2U ($1.87) J.Riewoldt over 78.5 WIN
2U ($1.75) Grigg over 85.5 WIN
2U ($1.76) K.Cornes under 99.5 WIN
2U ($1.87) Boak over 94.5 WIN
1U ($1.75) Wingard under 90.5 WIN
1U ($1.87) Liberatore under 103.5 WIN
1U ($1.87) R.Murphy under 84.5 WIN
1.5U ($1.75) Scotland over Judd WIN
1.5U ($1.88) A.Walker over R.Murphy WIN
2U ($1.90) Dixon over M.Jones WIN
3U ($1.87) N.Jones over 82.5 WIN
2U ($1.66) Sylvia over 80.5 WIN
2U ($1.87) T.Mitchell under 90.5 WIN
2U ($1.60) T.Mitchell under 95.5 WIN
1U ($1.87) Griffen under 110.5 LOSS
2U ($1.80) Leuy over 87.5 LOSS
2U ($1.95) Leuy over Hanley LOSS
2U ($1.80) Rockliff under 109.5 LOSS
2U (1.80) Gunston over Sewell LOSS (Wouldve been a win had he not got injured and subbed off, Gunston was killing it)
2U ($2.00) Harley Bennell under 92.5 LOSS
So i was killing it going into the last day of Football. + 20.155 Units
Then my big bet went
5U Ward under 99.5 (Expecting the Crowley tag) LOSS
2U Ballantyne over D.Smith and Tomlinson LOSS
2U Scully over D.Smith LOSS
So that left me +11.155 Units up for the week
Sam Jacobs overs was the other one i was gonna bet really big on but missed the chance due to sport comp on sunday and the odds werent up, wouldve won that.
So not bad considering some big bets like Ward 5U, against D.Smtih 4u, Leuy 4u didnt come through and yet i still ended up very nicely.
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Updated Results
ROUND 10 (+12.61 units)
ROUND 11 (+9.97 units)
ROUND 12 (-0.13 units)
ROUND 13 (+0.76 units)
ROUND 14 (+8.58 Units)
ROUND 15 (+4.2 Units)
ROUND 16 (+1.64 Units)
ROUND 17 (+14.22 Units)
ROUND 18 (+6.5 Units)
ROUND 19 (+4 Units)
ROUND 20 (+11.155 Units)
Overall Total +75.495 Units
ROUND 10 (+12.61 units)
ROUND 11 (+9.97 units)
ROUND 12 (-0.13 units)
ROUND 13 (+0.76 units)
ROUND 14 (+8.58 Units)
ROUND 15 (+4.2 Units)
ROUND 16 (+1.64 Units)
ROUND 17 (+14.22 Units)
ROUND 18 (+6.5 Units)
ROUND 19 (+4 Units)
ROUND 20 (+11.155 Units)
Overall Total +75.495 Units
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Im struggling to find much to bet on this week.
Who will Whiley tag? Rich, Black, Rockliff, Hanley or even Adcock. Rich is the easy choice but last time GWS tagged Black ahead of all. Rockliffs in the best form and Hanley is along with Rich the most damaging.
Rockliff has a line of 112.5
Rich is H2H with Hampton
Hanley is H2H with Leuenberger
So most can be bet on, its just hard to know which ones.
Who do Carlton tag from Richmond?
They usually go to Cotchin and did so in the first round of the year. However since then has been the "Deledio cant handle a tag" to save himself. There is no Cachia or Carrazzo. Curnow will tag but which one im not sure. Maybe Armfield will do a job on Deledio and Curnow to Cotchin.
From what i can see people are over betting on Cotchin due to the Curnow risk. He could still score 100-110 with curnow next to him.
Who does Mckenzie tag?
I have no doubt it will be either Mundy or Fyfe. Now he started tagging Fyfe earlier in the season and changed to the more dominant damaging mundy. Usually who a club finishes tagging in a game is who they will likely tag next week.
Its a real 50/50 for me and something im not prepared to bet against because the one not tagged will chop.
Raines Tag?
Whos he going to Scully or Ward. Ward has killed in the last 3 weeks just look at his stats. So you think its simple, well not really because he went to Scully last time so youd think him. But something else has changed in the last week. A new coach!! So i think its every chance but certainly no certainty to be Ward.
Thus i have hit Redden $1.95 2U over Ward
Just the one bet for me tonight and i got on it slow however im not hugely confident on it.
H.Shaw ($1.60) 3U under 85.5
Why? Cops the Lewis Half forward offensive tag every time they play and has kept him under that the last 3-4 times they have played. However. H.Shaw at the MCG in his last 5 this year is avg 98.2 and they range from 92-107.
Who will Whiley tag? Rich, Black, Rockliff, Hanley or even Adcock. Rich is the easy choice but last time GWS tagged Black ahead of all. Rockliffs in the best form and Hanley is along with Rich the most damaging.
Rockliff has a line of 112.5
Rich is H2H with Hampton
Hanley is H2H with Leuenberger
So most can be bet on, its just hard to know which ones.
Who do Carlton tag from Richmond?
They usually go to Cotchin and did so in the first round of the year. However since then has been the "Deledio cant handle a tag" to save himself. There is no Cachia or Carrazzo. Curnow will tag but which one im not sure. Maybe Armfield will do a job on Deledio and Curnow to Cotchin.
From what i can see people are over betting on Cotchin due to the Curnow risk. He could still score 100-110 with curnow next to him.
Who does Mckenzie tag?
I have no doubt it will be either Mundy or Fyfe. Now he started tagging Fyfe earlier in the season and changed to the more dominant damaging mundy. Usually who a club finishes tagging in a game is who they will likely tag next week.
Its a real 50/50 for me and something im not prepared to bet against because the one not tagged will chop.
Raines Tag?
Whos he going to Scully or Ward. Ward has killed in the last 3 weeks just look at his stats. So you think its simple, well not really because he went to Scully last time so youd think him. But something else has changed in the last week. A new coach!! So i think its every chance but certainly no certainty to be Ward.
Thus i have hit Redden $1.95 2U over Ward
Just the one bet for me tonight and i got on it slow however im not hugely confident on it.
H.Shaw ($1.60) 3U under 85.5
Why? Cops the Lewis Half forward offensive tag every time they play and has kept him under that the last 3-4 times they have played. However. H.Shaw at the MCG in his last 5 this year is avg 98.2 and they range from 92-107.
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Round 20 results:
12-0-9 for +10.33U
YTD:
92-2-74 for +39.81U
Happy with that. Only downer for the weekend was the Saturday night game.
Round 21:
Barlow winner of DT super group @29 (1U) Luxbet
Mundy winner of DT super group @41 (1U) Luxbet
First time I have seen this market with Luxbet. Very happy to take those two at those odds against Melbourne. Barlow scored a massive 149 last time he played Melbourne whilst Mundy scored 131 against them.
Mundy over Fyfe @2.05 (2U) Betstar
Fyfe to get the McKenzie tag which kept Ablett quiet last weekend. As mentioned above, Mundy racked up 131 against Melbourne last time they played.
Wellingham over Corey, H.Taylor @2.60 (2U) Sportingbet
Wellinghams last 3 scores have been 93, 111 and 97 and is a big part of WCs midfield rotation. A similar score should get the job done in this group.
J.Selwood under 108.5 @1.88 (1U) Sportingbet
His scores have been absolutely massive of late but his record whilst being tagged by his brother isn't so great. Averages 99 and scored just 88 last time they met.
Rockliff under 112.5 @1.88 (1U) Sportingbet
Another in ripping form but going against him again. His form hasn't gone unnoticed and he looks a good match up for Whiley.
12-0-9 for +10.33U
YTD:
92-2-74 for +39.81U
Happy with that. Only downer for the weekend was the Saturday night game.
Round 21:
Barlow winner of DT super group @29 (1U) Luxbet
Mundy winner of DT super group @41 (1U) Luxbet
First time I have seen this market with Luxbet. Very happy to take those two at those odds against Melbourne. Barlow scored a massive 149 last time he played Melbourne whilst Mundy scored 131 against them.
Mundy over Fyfe @2.05 (2U) Betstar
Fyfe to get the McKenzie tag which kept Ablett quiet last weekend. As mentioned above, Mundy racked up 131 against Melbourne last time they played.
Wellingham over Corey, H.Taylor @2.60 (2U) Sportingbet
Wellinghams last 3 scores have been 93, 111 and 97 and is a big part of WCs midfield rotation. A similar score should get the job done in this group.
J.Selwood under 108.5 @1.88 (1U) Sportingbet
His scores have been absolutely massive of late but his record whilst being tagged by his brother isn't so great. Averages 99 and scored just 88 last time they met.
Rockliff under 112.5 @1.88 (1U) Sportingbet
Another in ripping form but going against him again. His form hasn't gone unnoticed and he looks a good match up for Whiley.
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I think McKenzie has to go to Fyfe again. Fyfes form has been massive and he demonstrated how much of a mistake it is to let him run free two weeks ago. It's possible that both will get tagged though.
I agree with your thoughts on Curnow and Armfield.
I couldn't believe Crowley went to Scully again last week considering the form Ward is in so I'm not confident this week on trying to guess who Raines will go to.
I agree with your thoughts on Curnow and Armfield.
I couldn't believe Crowley went to Scully again last week considering the form Ward is in so I'm not confident this week on trying to guess who Raines will go to.
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Yeh im not sure i think Mundys more damaging real 50/50 i wont bet with those odds. Guess right certainty to win get it wrong and certainty to lose.
I must have put the bet on before i saw that he went to scully last time they played. Ross Lyon is a strict coach and he goes with his ways so he obviously thought it was still beneficial to do the same again. I probably still thought after Wards dominant display the week before he would still go to him.
Just in regards to Wellingham, i liked it alot when i saw it then thought twice. Just because hes played 3 ordinary sides in Essendon, GC and the dogs and now Shuey is back in does that mean more forward time, is he already playing forward time? Hibberd matched up on him last week so that tells me a HFF? I think ill do the bet.Harry T the only one that can beat him i reckon, hopefully plays forward and gets Mckenzie or Glass.
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He has spent a small amount of time at half forward but more so in the midfield and a little bit off half back. He just adds so much class to the midfield when he is in there so I can't see him losing much midfield time even with Shuey back.
As for the quality of opposition, well I guess we will see how he goes this weekend. The Bulldogs played really well against us and their midfield has been very very good lately and he scored well against them.
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Eagles talls are over rated.
They no longer have NicNat or Lynch in there team.
Darling is 190-191cm and Lycett is a spud.
They have Rivers and Lonergan as very capable key backs. They then have guys like Mackie who can play 3rd tall on guys like Darling very easily or even Lycett and hurt him on the rebound.
Id be fairly confident in saying he will spend some time forward during the game unless they are on top early and winning pretty comfortably with him down back.
