Analysis Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

[4quarter_cat]

Lets see what the numbers say about how important it is to belt up the opposition. You're both making assertions about the future based on past performance anyway.

We have plenty of tough players already on our list, and we've added another selwood, dangerfield, and lachie henderson to the list. Players come and players go.

 

[Lana]

Hawks are light years ahead in passing the ball without turnover. That's why they win. We have a lot of so so kicks in our team and can't get close to them there. If we are to be in contention we need to cream them at the contests.

We're aren't so bad ourselves at retaining possession by foot. We average a competition high 55% of our field kicks resulting in a mark. Our problem is that we have the second lowest field kick to hand ball ratio at 1.055.

To compare that to Hawthorn who are ranked second at retaining field kicks, they go at 53% but they have a much higher field kick to handball ratio at 1.178.

Those percentages naturally don't provide context about how we retain our possession compared to Hawthorn. An accurate kick into congestion has as much weight as a switch. But foot skills aren't where I'd blame our lack of performance, our clearance work is holding us back a lot more than our disposal by foot. While Hawthorn aren't noted as being a clearance side they won 9% more clearances then there opponents ranked 2nd while we were ranked last at -13%.

 

[Teriyakicat]

We're aren't so bad ourselves at retaining possession by foot. We average a competition high 55% of our field kicks resulting in a mark. Our problem is that we have the second lowest field kick to hand ball ratio at 1.055.

To compare that to Hawthorn who are ranked second at retaining field kicks, they go at 53% but they have a much higher field kick to handball ratio at 1.178.

Those percentages naturally don't provide context about how we retain our possession compared to Hawthorn. An accurate kick into congestion has as much weight as a switch. But foot skills aren't where I'd blame our lack of performance, our clearance work is holding us back a lot more than our disposal by foot. While Hawthorn aren't noted as being a clearance side they won 9% more clearances then there opponents ranked 2nd while we were ranked last at -13%.

Do you know where to find our kicking efficiency stats, 10lana? I might have a hunt around to see if I can find a CD article- the AFL sometimes have little tasters on their website.

 

[Lana]

Do you know where to find our kicking efficiency stats, 10lana? I might have a hunt around to see if I can find a CD article- the AFL sometimes have little tasters on their website.

Estimate it using the follow equation

Field kicks that become marks % = 100*Number of marks/(Total kicks-shots on goal).

It's not 100% accurate but it's better than nothing

Total shots is not equal to goals + behinds
Kick ins count toward the mark total but aren't counted as kicks.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Estimate it using the follow equation

Field kicks that become marks % = 100*Number of marks/(Total kicks-shots on goal).

It's not 100% accurate but it's better than nothing

Total shots is not equal to goals + behinds
Kick ins count toward the mark total but aren't counted as kicks.

Hmmm.....

I can find the goal-kicking accuracy on footywire- or AFL stats, I think, so I can work backwards from that to get the total shots.

maybe ... but not just now. I know if I start on it, I will miss an appointment

 

[The rabbi]

Yep. There precision kicking is too good to beat zone defences. They aren't as strong at the contest though. Its where we can beat them.

The only problem is that when I watch Geelong play the Hawks the last few years they always zone off.
A dead cert recipe for destruction.

 

[Lana]

Hmmm.....

I can find the goal-kicking accuracy on footywire- or AFL stats, I think, so I can work backwards from that to get the total shots.

maybe ... but not just now. I know if I start on it, I will miss an appointment

What I should have written is total shots that don't stay to the field of play (and then there rushed behinds that don't involve a shot on goal), I can recreate total shots but that doesn't take into consideration a few other things so it was better to just keep it simple.

 

[Teriyakicat]

What I should have written is total shots that don't stay to the field of play (and then there rushed behinds that don't involve a shot on goal), I can recreate total shots but that doesn't take into consideration a few other things so it was better to just keep it simple.

Yeah, I know it's impossible to work it out without re-watching and counting every single kick. Doesn't matter- for us it's just a bit of fun anyway.

 

[you pick one]

Lets see what the numbers say about how important it is to belt up the opposition. You're both making assertions about the future based on past performance anyway.

We have plenty of tough players already on our list, and we've added another selwood, dangerfield, and lachie henderson to the list. Players come and players go.

It's not about belting them up it's about taking them out of their comfort zone, getting them to have a quick look over the shoulder,think twice about coming back with the flight of the ball or taking big Toms space and possibly creating a fumble.Some players can even keep you awake of a night.I don't see that player at Geelong right now.Ablett snr would have kept me awake of a night.

 

[Lana]

Yeah, I know it's impossible to work it out without re-watching and counting every single kick. Doesn't matter- for us it's just a bit of fun anyway.

If its so fun are you volunteering to collect each of our stoppage setups next year

 

[4quarter_cat]

Okay so, I have some data coming in. Its only for 2010 at this stage. We have a Pearson's correlation co-efficient of 0.431 which means we have a moderate positive relationship between %CP for a team during a whole season, and their points at the end of the season

Picture Attached

 

[Hello Kitty]

"It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." - Eliza Gutch.

"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself." - Mark Twain.


Two of the measures of a team's statistical success in recent years seem to be Contested Possessions and Clearances but how important are these actual numbers? I have drawn up two small tables below, in order to compare our stats over the past 6 years with the premier of each of those years, using both average Contested Possession and Clearance stats per game and the average differential per game, calculated by dividing our average stats per game by those of our opponents.

Firstly- a comparison of the Contested Possession stats:
View attachment 193384

Secondly, a comparison of clearance stats:

View attachment 193387


The good news is that we don't have to have to be Top Dog in either of these categories in order to be in contention for a premiership. Looking at the CP data for the Hawks over the past 3 years- they have been fairly average in this statistic...

what does this mean??

In our premiership era, in so many games we lost contested possession, but won the game! I've posted it for years, but was ignored! Thanks Teri!

 

[Teriyakicat]

If its so fun are you volunteering to collect each of our stoppage setups next year

Of course!!!!











.....not!




I will help where I can - but on paper.

 

[4quarter_cat]

Well one thing is clear looking at the graph I uploaded but won't load properly. :-(

Collingwood in 2010 were lightyears ahead of anyone else when it came to contested possessions. I would say its a big part of their being such a strong team, this stands up observationally too.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Okay so, I have some data coming in. Its only for 2010 at this stage. We have a Pearson's correlation co-efficient of 0.431 which means we have a moderate positive relationship between %CP for a team during a whole season, and their points at the end of the season

Picture Attached

We would like that coefficient to be closing in on the numeral "1" to have more meaning, yeah?

If all else fails after passing all these stats through the 4QuarterNumberCruncher, 4QC, I reckon we can throw the final scores through it, just to make sure it's working!!

 

[Teriyakicat]

In our premiership era, in so many games we lost contested possession, but won the game! I've posted it for years, but was ignored! Thanks Teri!

haha. Me too!!
Nobody listens. Nobody cares.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Well one thing is clear looking at the graph I uploaded but won't load properly. :-(

Collingwood in 2010 were lightyears ahead of anyone else when it came to contested possessions. I would say its a big part of their being such a strong team, this stands up observationally too.

i can see the graph by clicking on the thumbnail- don't worry.

 

[Hello Kitty]

haha. Me too!!
Nobody listens. Nobody cares.

They'll be sorry one day!

 

[4quarter_cat]

We would like that coefficient to be cloning in on the numeral "1" to have more meaning, yeah?

If all else fails after passing all these stats through the 4QuarterNumberCruncher, 4QC, I reckon we can throw the final scores through it, just to make sure it's working!!

1 would imply a perfect relationship. ie, the team with the most CP's always wins. (I can only think of 1 stat in football for which that is true )

anything above .75 is strong, above 0.5 moderate, and above 0.25 is weak. 0.431 is a weak relationship, but in the context of all the football stats I'm guessing its going to come out as one of the stronger ones.

 

[romeohwho]

"It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." - Eliza Gutch.

"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself." - Mark Twain.


Two of the measures of a team's statistical success in recent years seem to be Contested Possessions and Clearances but how important are these actual numbers? I have drawn up two small tables below, in order to compare our stats over the past 6 years with the premier of each of those years, using both average Contested Possession and Clearance stats per game and the average differential per game, calculated by dividing our average stats per game by those of our opponents.

Firstly- a comparison of the Contested Possession stats:
View attachment 193384

Secondly, a comparison of clearance stats:

View attachment 193387


The good news is that we don't have to have to be Top Dog in either of these categories in order to be in contention for a premiership. Looking at the CP data for the Hawks over the past 3 years- they have been fairly average in this statistic...

what does this mean??

Great effort TK and food for thought.
Surely the Hawks are the complete masters of the uncontested possession and they play a style of game, based around that, which is tough to emulate. They don't have to do well in contested possession because it happens so rarely to them!

 

[Hello Kitty]

It's not about belting them up it's about taking them out of their comfort zone, getting them to have a quick look over the shoulder,think twice about coming back with the flight of the ball or taking big Toms space and possibly creating a fumble.Some players can even keep you awake of a night.I don't see that player at Geelong right now.Ablett snr would have kept me awake of a night.

Gary Ablett Sr *sigh*
GAS *swoon*
Sighing + swooning about Gary Ablett Sr has kept me awake many a night!
Seeing Gary Ablett Sr in his speedos at KP STILL keeps me awake!!!

#I'dSoGoThere

 

[Seeds]

good point- I feel they're moving back towards our higher possession game plan, thank goodness, and away from the Saints/Freo/Sydney stoppage rugby scrum style of playing that was successful for Roos and Luons (well- ALMOST successful for Lyons).

One thing I thought about recently is that we no longer seem to play that keep things off game in the backline like we used to. Can't recall when that disappeared from the game but the Hawks use it still, I think.

Oh- by the way- I think you might be surprised at the Cats' disposal efficiency vs that of other teams. Time and time again I read and hear (both during and after games) that our kicking efficiency is much higher than that of our opponents. That's a whole new set of data to look at, though. Don't get me started!!

Yep let's not go into disposal efficiency stats. That's a who new thread and a half.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Yep let's not go into disposal efficiency stats. That's a who new thread and a half.

Awww, go on Seeds, be a devil!

A summary at least, would be good.

 

[Vdubs]

Fantastic piece of work, TC.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Great effort TK and food for thought.
Surely the Hawks are the complete masters of the uncontested possession and they play a style of game, based around that, which is tough to emulate. They don't have to do well in contested possession because it happens so rarely to them!

Thanks, Romeoh.
I see a bit of similarity in that higher uncontested Possession game, with how we played in the 2007-09 years. I don't think that their uncontested possessions- from viewing only the games in which we play them- occur in the same area of the ground that we tended to get a lot of UP.

If you remember we spent a fair bit of time passing back and forth in the back half of the ground, both soaking up time when necessary and also waiting for that attacking channel to open up so as to find our way through to goal. I think the Hawks over-possess (that's not quite the term I want but it will do) more between the centreline and the 50m arc, as they finesse their way into the goal square.

I dunno- that's what I think I've seen, as I said, from limited viewing and it may be entirely untrue.