Luke Breust vs Jeff Garlett

[WWSD]

lol at hawthorn supporters, and i thought richmond supporters were delusional, every point you've tried to make has been destroyed, garlett is one of the best small forwards in the league, open your eyes, this is just embarrassing.

Lance Franklin is the best forward in the league by mile. Open your eyes!

Franklin > Cloke
Roughead > Dawes

We have the best Forward, followed by the best forward combo! Roughead s**** on Dawes as does Franklin on Cloke!

 

[Donakebab]

Lance Franklin is the best forward in the league by mile. Open your eyes!

Franklin > Cloke
Roughead > Dawes

We have the best Forward, followed by the best forward combo! Roughead s**** on Dawes as does Franklin on Cloke!

Who gives a s**t about Franklin, Cloke, Roughead or Dawes, they have absolutely no relevance to this poll. You know you've lost the argument when you pull out s**t like this.


Gartlett definitely is one of the best small forwards in the league, if continues the way he's tracking he'll end up in the class of Milne but with a better defensive edge. Would choose him over Breust without a second thought.

 

[Jeremias]

I value the contested ball and second efforts, and as such would pick breust given the option of the two

that isn't to say he is or isnt a better player, and I think garlett is superior in the disposal area, it is who I would pick to make my side more competitive if it was staring from scratch

of given the option, I think gws and gc would pick breust in order to get the most out of thier side


I see garlett more like mark williams, great going forward, but questions over defence, the player sides heading for a flag would pick to give them an unpredictable option forward of center

Probably the most amusing post I've seen on the polls board in quite some time - and that's really saying something considering the gems that pop up here every little while.

You haven't seen Garlett play, have you?

 

[Monkey King]

Same link, but you're talking totals.

Erm, you're talking seasons, so of course I'm talking totals. Averages aren't relevant to your claim ...

"Breust actually outperformed Garlett in 2011 in terms of goal contributions".

Nah ... "actually" he didn't outperform Garlett in 2011 at all.

You've taken an averaging of statistics and applied it to full season performance, either through poor sense or sloppy language. Either way that statement was just plain old wrong, bordering on dishonest.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Playing more games wouldn't necessarily increase the average. Playing more time in the games he did play could change the average slightly however.

We're in complete agreement here, I didn't argue to the contrary.

Just dudded yourself there HP. Freo were not a top 8 side, there's your missing goal, and there is a free kick for the opposing argument

Freo were in the Top 8 when they played Hawthorn in Rd 11, having remained in the top 8 for the last 8 weeks, or 9 of the last 10. They were most definitely a Top 8 side at the time.

Your definition of a Top 8 side as a team who simply finished in the top 8 at the end of the year has no relevance to games played in Round 9 or 10 and is an excercise in statistical oddity.

By often you mean 'once' right ... vs Sydney.

I wish you'd get your facts right. He was the sub against Sydney, Fremantle, Geelong. 3 Top 8 teams. He was subbed off against Carlton I think, not sure of that one. Neverthless he played only 60% of gametime there.

Breust actually played 68% game time vs top 8 sides on average and 72% game time vs bottom 8 sides. Not much of a discrepancy considering the differences in performance.

61% actually, with Fremantle being a Top 8 side for 8 contiguous weeks up to and including the Hawthorn game. Compared to 77% against the Bottom 8, it's a big discrepancy.

It's no slight on Breust though.

It's no slight on Breust because his Top 8 average can be mostly attributed to significantly less game time.

61% vs the Top 8.
77% vs the Bottom 8

 

[Hodgepodge]

Erm, you're talking seasons, so of course I'm talking totals. Averages aren't relevant to your claim ...

"Breust actually outperformed Garlett in 2011 in terms of goal contributions".

Nah ... "actually" he didn't outperform Garlett in 2011 at all.

Performances are about averages unless one player didn't put together enough games for a meaningful season. This doesn't apply to Breust, so he did in fact outperform Garlett in terms of goal contributions. 0.1 might not seem like much of a lead, but it becomes significant when gametime is factored in.

A good example of this is Gary Ablett and Heath Scotland. Ablett clearly the better ball winner and better performer in terms of disposals, yet Scotland is ahead of him in total disposals this year. I defy anyone to conclude on the basis of total disposals that Scotland is now the bigger ball-magnet, as you just have.

You've taken an averaging of statistics and applied it to full season performance, either through poor sense or sloppy language. Either way that statement was just plain old wrong, bordering on dishonest.

Dishonest would be getting an average from 5 or 10 games, which is why these are cut-offs in ranking averages in competitions like Supercoach. Breust played 17, and with a big gametime disadvantage, so the comparison of average applies quite well.

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

I can actually understand where HP is coming from, being a hawks supporter he wouldve have seen a lot more of Bruest than Garlett

For example I rate Carlisle higher than S.Reid, because I have seen more of Carlisle and rate him very highly

 

[Hodgepodge]

I can actually understand where HP is coming from, being a hawks supporter he wouldve have seen a lot more of Bruest than Garlett

For example I rate Carlisle higher than S.Reid, because I have seen more of Carlisle and rate him very highly

I'm not arguing in particular for any player, I picked Breust out of bias, but I think stylistically and statistically they are very similar.

 

[Baz_hawk]

Lance Franklin is the best forward in the league by mile. Open your eyes!

Franklin > Cloke
Roughead > Dawes

We have the best Forward, followed by the best forward combo! Roughead s**** on Dawes as does Franklin on Cloke!

I have no idea what the point of this post is?

These polls are always going to attract bias. Breust has a bit of a cult following at the Hawks and has shown some promising signs. As I said earlier I am not voting or making the comparison until the end of this years season. Breust has only played one season so I don't think that's enough to base a comparison on. Clarko has also stated that Breust may be thrown into the midfield so he obviously has a big tank and good endurance. As of right now, Garlett is the better player. Defensively Garlett is slightly ahead, however Breust has improved immensely in his short career. I guess another factor that doesn't help is that in the only game last year when the 2 teams met, Garlett was poor and made some errors that stood out. Not a fair assessment.

 

[Monkey King]

Performances are about averages unless one player didn't put together enough games for a meaningful season.

No mate. To outperform someone over a season - and you did say outperformed Garlett in 2011 - you actually need to have outperformed them over a season, not simply hold a 0.1 advantage in p/game averages. Simply put, when you've only got 44 GC's, you can't say you've outperformed someone who has 61 GC's, no matter how badly you want to it to be true.

Furthermore, stats that have been accrued when coming on to the field after other players have been running around for a while and are somewhat fatigued is not the equal comparative measure you're pretending it to be. Garlett meanwhile, plays a key role for his team game-in, game-out; and being one of the better small forwards of the comp for the last two years and a constant in Carlton's gameplan means that he's well planned for by opposition coaches, something Breust is yet to be tested by.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Freo were in the Top 8 when they played Hawthorn in Rd 11, having remained in the top 8 for the last 8 weeks, or 9 of the last 10. They were most definitely a Top 8 side at the time.

You are playing a game of semantics here HP. Freo were in the 8 based on wins over Brisbane (2 points at Subi), Adelaide, North, Dogs (7 points at Subi) and Port, and losses to Geelong, Richmond, St Kilda, and West Coast. They were top 8 at the time in 22 game race, by virtue of their draw. History showed they weren't a top 8 side. However, if you want to go the semantics route and its a silly one, then St Kilda were not a top 8 side when you played them either by virtue of a much harder draw to that point (see how ridiculous this is?), and Freo were in the 8 both times you played them. So add in 4 goals in two games vs Freo and take away 2 vs St Kilda. Breust then has 10 goals in 8 games vs top 8 sides and 20 goals in 9 games vs bottom 8 sides. It's really a moot point isn't it?

Your definition of a Top 8 side as a team who simply finished in the top 8 at the end of the year has no relevance to games played in Round 9 or 10 and is an excercise in statistical oddity.

I could argue the same thing based on evidence available.

I wish you'd get your facts right. He was the sub against Sydney, Fremantle, Geelong. 3 Top 8 teams. He was subbed off against Carlton I think, not sure of that one. Neverthless he played only 60% of gametime there.

Again though, you go back to the 'Freo were a top 8 side' defence based on their easier draw to date. Extreme manipulation.

Seriously HP, if Gold Coast beat GWS, Port and Brisbane in their first 3 rounds, then played the Hawks and lost to them and ended up spooners with 3 wins, your logic would have you bragging about how player x did against the top team. Yet, my reasoning is apparently the statistical oddity?

The point is that Breust played almost as much time against teams that made the finals as he did against teams that did not make the finals, yet the output was vastly different.

61% actually, with Fremantle being a Top 8 side for 8 contiguous weeks up to and including the Hawthorn game. Compared to 77% against the Bottom 8, it's a big discrepancy.

Already discussed. It's a rubbish theory and you are clutching at straws.

 

[WWSD]

Jeff Garlett did train with the Hawks in the lead up to the rookie draft. He was later drafted by Carlton & we missed out. But we got Breust who was also in that 08 rookie draft.

If only....

Half Forward: Garlett Franklin Rioli

Now that's delicious! lol

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I can actually understand where HP is coming from, being a hawks supporter he wouldve have seen a lot more of Bruest than Garlett

For example I rate Carlisle higher than S.Reid, because I have seen more of Carlisle and rate him very highly

We all do that, but we all don't continue to start polls geared to make our player look better. HP makes a habit of such comparisons.

I have no idea what the point of this post is?

These polls are always going to attract bias. Breust has a bit of a cult following at the Hawks and has shown some promising signs. As I said earlier I am not voting or making the comparison until the end of this years season. Breust has only played one season so I don't think that's enough to base a comparison on. Clarko has also stated that Breust may be thrown into the midfield so he obviously has a big tank and good endurance. As of right now, Garlett is the better player. Defensively Garlett is slightly ahead, however Breust has improved immensely in his short career. I guess another factor that doesn't help is that in the only game last year when the 2 teams met, Garlett was poor and made some errors that stood out. Not a fair assessment.

Exactly right. Poor poll that was always going to polarise opinion. A first year player has a good season and shows promise. Let him rest on that and see how he goes over the next couple of seasons, instead of declaring him better than another player who has shown something over a few seasons.

The poll is made worse when it is started by a supporter of the team the player being pushed is from, and from someone known for not being adverse to doing this exact thing previously.

As always, it is completely disingenuous.

 

[Hodgepodge]

You are playing a game of semantics here HP. Freo were in the 8 based on wins over Brisbane (2 points at Subi), Adelaide, North, Dogs (7 points at Subi) and Port, and losses to Geelong, Richmond, St Kilda, and West Coast. They were top 8 at the time in 22 game race, by virtue of their draw. History showed they weren't a top 8 side.

That's pretty typical of the win-loss record of any bottom of the top 8 side, which Fremantle were at the time.

History showed that they fell away after a massive injury toll, not because of a lack of quality, and this is what affected their finals aspirations. At one point there were concerns over their ability to put a senior team together.

However, if you want to go the semantics route and its a silly one, then St Kilda were not a top 8 side when you played them either by virtue of a much harder draw to that point (see how ridiculous this is?),

I didn't count StKilda as a top 8 side in the first place. StKilda weren't a top 8 side because they were playing rubbish.

and Freo were in the 8 both times you played them. So add in 4 goals in two games vs Freo and take away 2 vs St Kilda. Breust then has 10 goals in 8 games vs top 8 sides and 20 goals in 9 games vs bottom 8 sides. It's really a moot point isn't it?

There's no need to subtract any goals vs StKilda as they weren't counted. I will add 2 goals vs Freo though, I didn't realise they were in the Top 8 at that point. So it's 11 goals from 8 games now.

Again though, you go back to the 'Freo were a top 8 side' defence based on their easier draw to date. Extreme manipulation.

Their draw to date exposed them as a bottom of the 8 side, which they remained until Rd 21, having played against a greater range of teams. So your draw argument is completely defunct.

Seriously HP, if Gold Coast beat GWS, Port and Brisbane in their first 3 rounds, then played the Hawks and lost to them and ended up spooners with 3 wins, your logic would have you bragging about how player x did against the top team. Yet, my reasoning is apparently the statistical oddity?

An odd argument to make considering Fremantle played both Top 8 and bottom 9 teams to be seated in the top 8 come Round 11 when they played Hawthorn, a position in which they remained for a further 9 rounds. Compared with your hypothetical AFL in which GWS played bottom 4 teams almost exclusively. Your scenario is an extreme example which simply doesn't apply to the Fremantle case.

The point is that Breust played almost as much time against teams that made the finals as he did against teams that did not make the finals, yet the output was vastly different.

61% to 77% is a significant margin.

Already discussed. It's a rubbish theory and you are clutching at straws.

It's not even a theory, 61% gametime against Bottom 9 sides vs 77% against Top 8 sides is a big gap.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

No, it's a bogus argument and statistical manipulation.

By your logic, you get to count Freo twice as a top 8 side to favour Breust's argument but I can't count them as a top 8 side as they finally gave up the ghost and fell out of the 8 by weight of playing quality opponents.

They finished where they finished regardless of how they got there. At least if we are comparing two players from two teams, we should be doing it based on performances against the same sides.

Against the sides that eventually ended up in the top 8, and will be recorded as finalists by history, my stats on Garlett and Breust are accurate. They have a finishing point and are consistent.

On your floating week by week scale that fails to take into account relative draws of different teams to that point, your stats may be accurate. Good luck comforting yourself with that.

 

[Hodgepodge]

By your logic, you get to count Freo twice as a top 8 side to favour Breust's argument but I can't count them as a top 8 side as they finally gave up the ghost and fell out of the 8 by weight of playing quality opponents.

It's irrelevant what happens later in the year as it is irrelevant what happens next year. Freo were a Top 8 side for 20 of 21 weeks in which they played Hawthorn twice. There's no statistical manipulation, and their early draw can't be blamed either. They were a Top 8 side.

Against the sides that eventually ended up in the top 8, and will be recorded as finalists by history, my stats on Garlett and Breust are accurate. They have a finishing point and are consistent.

Accurate, but irrelevant in terms of performing against better sides, which is the discussion.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

It's irrelevant what happens later in the year as it is irrelevant what happens next year. Freo were a Top 8 side for 20 of 21 weeks in which they played Hawthorn twice. There's no statistical manipulation, and their early draw can't be blamed either. They were a Top 8 side.

Accurate, but irrelevant in terms of performing against better sides, which is the discussion.

Nah sorry, that doesn't wash. You can make any set of circumstances fit when you look at things like that.

You want to compare apples with oranges. Go right ahead.

This is how your system works HP.

Coming into round 19 vs Hawthorn, Freo were half a game inside the 8. Coming into round 21 vs Carlton, Freo were half a game outside the 8.

By your logic, Breust's performance there is considered to be performing against the top sides, whereas Garlett's performance two rounds later is considered to be performing against the bottom sides for the purposes of this discussion, and where Freo were headed and ultimately ended up has no bearing.

Now there were five changes to the Freo side from the time you played them to the time we played them.

Out: Anthony, De Boer, McPhee, Palmer, Roberton
In: Faulks, Hinkley, McFarlane, Sandilands, Suban

Now I ask you, which Fremantle side appears to be better?

When you are evaluating during the week of the game, their current position is relevant. When you are evaluating after the season, the bigger picture becomes clear.

Maybe you want to count every team that could have made the 8 with a bit of luck?

Freo prior to playing you took on three eventual top 8 sides and six eventual bottom 8 sides. After and including Hawthorn, they took on 8 eventual top 8 sides and 5 eventual bottom 8 sides. There was clearly an easier draw first up.

Including your second encounter with Freo, they took on four top 8 sides and two bottom 8 sides to finish their year.

Yes they had injuries but clearly their draw was easier early.

 

[blue gunslinger]

Garlett is considered an Agrader all ready and thus receives A grade attention

 

[Hodgepodge]

By your logic, Breust's performance there is considered to be performing against the top sides, whereas Garlett's performance two rounds later is considered to be performing against the bottom sides for the purposes of this discussion, and where Freo were headed and ultimately ended up has no bearing.

Now there were five changes to the Freo side from the time you played them to the time we played them.

Out: Anthony, De Boer, McPhee, Palmer, Roberton
In: Faulks, Hinkley, McFarlane, Sandilands, Suban

Now I ask you, which Fremantle side appears to be better?

I haven't seen the entire side, so how would I assess? The performance of Fremantle is more important than their list on paper anyhow, so this question is irrelevant.

Yes there is a fine line sometimes between a top 8 team and a bottom 9 team, but that is true of both systems. Mine just happens to be a lot more relevant to the time the game is played.

Freo prior to playing you took on three eventual top 8 sides and six eventual bottom 8 sides. After and including Hawthorn, they took on 8 eventual top 8 sides and 5 eventual bottom 8 sides. There was clearly an easier draw first up.

They may have had an easier draw first up, but they actually went up the ladder with the harder draw, and were 7th on the ladder the second time around to 8th the first time. So the draw had no effect, in fact it had the opposite.

 

[mickelboy182]

In this topic: The extent to which Podgey will manipulate stats to make himself appear correct.

"B-b-but Freo were top 8 when we played them!"
Get your hand off it.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

It is a circular argument that HP has no choice but to latch on to because he won't concede on something he started.

However that is a sub issue and the main issue is whether Breust is better than Garlett, and that is not in evidence unless you tilt your head, squint and skew evidence a certain way. He may well end up better, who the hell knows these things, but the thread is way too premature, calls on way too much speculation, and given this isn't the first thread of this nature from HP, calls into question his motivation.

 

[Hipster Doofus]

Garlett would be amazing for the Tiges right now.....Bruest would be another Jake King though not as funny and interesting to watch

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Garlett is considered an Agrader all ready and thus receives A grade attention

Carlton must have about 10 A graders then? I don't think so. Neither player in this poll is close to being A grade.

 

[Blueboiiz]

Both great finds from the rookie draft.
I think its abit early to compare both players.

 

[liam_13]

Garlett, and I think comfortably.

Will be the premier small forward of the competition in 2012 (assuming LeCras and Milne play up in the middle a bit, and even then he still might be)