Media Rights could be worth 1.6 billion in 2016 (The Age 17/2)

[The_Wookie]

Roger Colman, an experienced research analyst with CCZ Stratton Equities, would not rule out a new broadcasting deal reaching $2 billion but said it was more likely to fall short. ''I gave 5 per cent per annum on $1.25 billion, I got to between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion. That's what I think it's worth even at a premium inflation rate compared with expected TV advertising growth,'' he said.

''[It includes] a premium inflation rate with sports rights, with a certainty of ratings and cross-promotional benefits and the fact it is 'tentpole' stuff that networks need relative to general advertising and product revenue availability.''

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...16b-in-2016-20140217-32wex.html#ixzz2tZxqqs9N

 

[fabulousphil]

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...16b-in-2016-20140217-32wex.html#ixzz2tZxqqs9N

Perhaps the rumours of the AFL buying out Docklands earlier has some legs, if they are looking at early broadcast rights terms.

The AFL is very pro-active if nothing else, you have got to hand it to them.

I was not alive in 1957, but the ANFC ( Australian National Football Council) bought a parcel of land in Cairns for a football ground, which is now Cazalys stadium. It was Bruce Andrews, a relatively famous Collingwood footballer in the 1920's and President of the ANFC who engineered this move.

The AFL who now consider them selves the keeper of the code (self appointed ? ) , appear determined to continue this type of legacy.

 

[telsor]

From the methodology (just ad a 5% growth rate), it seems like a rather rough guess.

I dare say the biggest factor would be competition, and really, I doubt this person has much of a clue what stations would be willing to chase the rights that hard.

 

[Demonoid]

From the methodology (just ad a 5% growth rate), it seems like a rather rough guess.

I dare say the biggest factor would be competition, and really, I doubt this person has much of a clue what stations would be willing to chase the rights that hard.

This reminds me of another so called expert, Steve Allen from Fusion media, who predicted the last AFL rights would not get a billion. The article does mention competition as a driving force in what could push it up to 2 billion. With 10 missing out in the Rugby league - they could make a play. I'll add what i said in the Kim Williams thread - if the AFL also commits to night grand finals and more night time football in general, then that will surely have an impact as well.

Finally, i think all the talk about equalisation can not be overlooked as well. Not so much about football spending, but just the fact that on any given day, any team should be able to challenge any other team. A close game is generally a high rating game and that to me remains the biggest issue. However, so far the signs are good. GWS and Gold Coast are looking better each year, and my mob showed a lot of fight against Richmond. Its only pre season, but as long as we stop the blow outs and the game is still up for grabs at 3 quarter time, then people won't switch off.

 

[finders]

Demonoid said "I'll add what i said in the Kim Williams thread - if the AFL also commits to night grand finals and more night time football in general, then that will surely have an impact as well".

I think the rights will go closer to $2 billion than 1.6 esp wih a Night GF thrown in.

If I were the AFL and a night GF was part of the deal I would make the TV channel pay for the entertainment.

 

[Smokin]

they dont even need to sell the night GF.

They can just offer up the awkward Saturday twilight to a network (say Ten who now understand the value of live real sport) as a second prime time slot - Monday or Thursday night. That drives the prices significantly higher than 5%pa which would be near the minimum increase.

The wild card is the AFL driving up competition and keeping FTA honest with their own network (web) that may have access to one exclusive game per week. By then, the take up of tablets/smart pc's etc would cause great concern for networks that their medium could be possibly bypassed.

The AFL is saying their online offering could be in HD as early as this year. It aint far away.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Will prices go up much though?

With ad spends slowing post GFC a number of big sporting events recently have failed to get the rights dollars they expected

Also Ten is a basket case now, and does nine have the clout/interest anymore to put up the competitive bid needs to push seven to a big increase?

 

[The_Wookie]

Will prices go up much though?

With ad spends slowing post GFC a number of big sporting events recently have failed to get the rights dollars they expected

Also Ten is a basket case now, and does nine have the clout/interest anymore to put up the competitive bid needs to push seven to a big increase?

Ten will end up doing ok, its BBL and Olympic ratings are pretty good

 

[brisbane13]

Will prices go up much though?

With ad spends slowing post GFC a number of big sporting events recently have failed to get the rights dollars they expected

Also Ten is a basket case now, and does nine have the clout/interest anymore to put up the competitive bid needs to push seven to a big increase?

didn't 10 have a good crack at the Last broad cast deals?

 

[Sydney Bloods]

Will prices go up much though?

With ad spends slowing post GFC a number of big sporting events recently have failed to get the rights dollars they expected

Also Ten is a basket case now, and does nine have the clout/interest anymore to put up the competitive bid needs to push seven to a big increase?

All three networks monitor AFL ratings weekly all year. I don't just mean the games hell, clubs even get requests for hit counts from both foxtel and FA.

The AFL's branding is increasing in value week to week. What it will come down to over all is attendance believe it or not.

Higher attendance the second biggest attraction for tv networks. (following ratings obviously) because it is a better gauge for New programs then hypothetical projections.

The more people attending games the easier it is to sell those games.

 

[Rob]

they dont even need to sell the night GF.

They can just offer up the awkward Saturday twilight to a network (say Ten who now understand the value of live real sport) as a second prime time slot - Monday or Thursday night. That drives the prices significantly higher than 5%pa which would be near the minimum increase.

The wild card is the AFL driving up competition and keeping FTA honest with their own network (web) that may have access to one exclusive game per week. By then, the take up of tablets/smart pc's etc would cause great concern for networks that their medium could be possibly bypassed.

The AFL is saying their online offering could be in HD as early as this year. It aint far away.

The Saturday twilight game has been a big success for Fox, they're not going to get rid of that. They'll probably move 1 of the Saturday afternoon games if they want to create another slot.

 

[Demonoid]

The Saturday twilight game has been a big success for Fox, they're not going to get rid of that. They'll probably move 1 of the Saturday afternoon games if they want to create another slot.

I think the AFL should push hard in ensuring that games are not on in the same time. This cannibalises the audience. If that means moving say one of the Saturday afternoon games (not the twilight, but one of the 2 earlier games) to a Thursday, Sunday, Monday night, than so be it.

Surely they can see that this will even further increase ratings - thereby driving up the price for the rights higher...

 

[Demonic Ascent]

I think the AFL should push hard in ensuring that games are not on in the same time. This cannibalises the audience. If that means moving say one of the Saturday afternoon games (not the twilight, but one of the 2 earlier games) to a Thursday, Sunday, Monday night, than so be it.

Surely they can see that this will even further increase ratings - thereby driving up the price for the rights higher...

That being the case the one to go would be the Saturday 2pm timeslot, the traditional timeslot.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Wookie I think you should change the title of the thread to to Broadcast Rights or Media Rights not TV Rights.

Telstra's new media rights have gone from $20mil (2002-06 deal) to $60mil (2007-11) to $153mil
The TV cash component hasn't grown as fast. $405mil (2002-06 deal) to $690mil (2007-11) to $965mil

The advertising non cash - contra component has grown the least. $95mil (2002-06 deal) to $90mil (2007-11) to $135mil

So I would expect the internet/mobile rights to double again to about $300mil. The 2017-2022 Rights will be negotiated during late 2015 and early 2016. GC and GWS will have very little impact on the value of the rights this deal but could well have a significant impact on 2022-27 deal if they can both snag a flag after 2017-2022 period.

If and its a big If, the NBN roll out is more definitive and less stuff ups by mid 2015 and an accurate future roll out is establish by 2015 then that will play a significant part in the value of the 2017-22 rights. The AFL might sell direct via the NBN and cutout Foxtel. The AFL could have the AFL pay TV channel set up by then. Who knows. Its way to early to be definitive at this stage.

 

[theflea]

Would the AFL have beefed up their own media rights section over the last few years(and now added the former head of foxtel) to then go with the same format for another 5 years? I don't think so.

 

[The_Wookie]

Would the AFL have beefed up their own media rights section over the last few years(and now added the former head of foxtel) to then go with the same format for another 5 years? I don't think so.

I think there'll we'll still see matches sold the same way as they are now to FTA and Paytv. The difference will be in streaming and IPTV.

 

[Messenger]

I think the rights will go closer to $2 billion than 1.6 esp wih a Night GF thrown in.

If I were the AFL and a night GF was part of the deal I would make the TV channel pay for the entertainment.

How is a night GF worth an additional $400m?

I think the AFL should push hard in ensuring that games are not on in the same time. This cannibalises the audience. If that means moving say one of the Saturday afternoon games (not the twilight, but one of the 2 earlier games) to a Thursday, Sunday, Monday night, than so be it.

I think the league has attempted to ameliorate this issue already by scheduling prime fixtures with lesser games in those Saturday night slots. How many neutrals are going to choose the weaker fixture over the "blockbuster"?

The other thing to consider is that the market is not homogenous; Fremantle v St Kilda is not an attractive Saturday fixture in the East, but is in Western Australia.

When you start setting up regular Thursday fixtures you're going to see clubs get into load management in an even greater way than before. If my team is playing a bottom four team on a Thursday night off a five day break, expect to see two or three key players in suits in the stand. You could spread the product across the week and dilute it.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

How is a night GF worth an additional $400m?



I think the league has attempted to ameliorate this issue already by scheduling prime fixtures with lesser games in those Saturday night slots. How many neutrals are going to choose the weaker fixture over the "blockbuster"?.

The funny thing is over the last couple of years at least the "weaker" fixture has been a better and more entertaining game than the "blockbuster" fixture.

 

[Smokin]

The Saturday twilight game has been a big success for Fox, they're not going to get rid of that. They'll probably move 1 of the Saturday afternoon games if they want to create another slot.

yep agree and fair enough, but the Sat twilight time slot is the only game 'exclusive' to fox in time slot and accessibility.

 

[Smokin]

I think there'll we'll still see matches sold the same way as they are now to FTA and Paytv. The difference will be in streaming and IPTV.

I think they will implement streaming slowly.

Perhaps the next rights will have the same FTA/Fox split, but one of the fox games will be also available to say Telstra as an IP game on a range of platforms, browser, phone, tablet, smartTV etc.

I am interestingly reading a report right now calling Australia's 4g network the best in the world. This is namely due to Telstra being at the forefront globally for ultra fast mobile technology. The NBN may be fairly irrelevant sooner rather than later.

I dont think we are as far away from HD games being viable on a mobile platform as some people think.

 

[Smokin]

How is a night GF worth an additional $400m?



I think the league has attempted to ameliorate this issue already by scheduling prime fixtures with lesser games in those Saturday night slots. How many neutrals are going to choose the weaker fixture over the "blockbuster"?

The other thing to consider is that the market is not homogenous; Fremantle v St Kilda is not an attractive Saturday fixture in the East, but is in Western Australia.

When you start setting up regular Thursday fixtures you're going to see clubs get into load management in an even greater way than before. If my team is playing a bottom four team on a Thursday night off a five day break, expect to see two or three key players in suits in the stand. You could spread the product across the week and dilute it.

Solid points but at the some token, blanket coverage is also a target of the AFL. The AFL has elongated the season so other codes dont get a leg up at the start of the year having AFL-less weekends.

The same can and should extend to during the season - why give 'them' Monday Nights and some Thursdays on a plate? As GWS and GC get better and better, the Northern Markets will come more and more into play.

 

[The_Wookie]

I think they will implement streaming slowly.

Perhaps the next rights will have the same FTA/Fox split, but one of the fox games will be also available to say Telstra as an IP game on a range of platforms, browser, phone, tablet, smartTV etc.

Telstra got an IP game as part of the current deal. Its the reason why you can get 9 games on the Tbox, but not on the Xbox or other Ip platforms.

[/quote]

 

[Messenger]

The same can and should extend to during the season - why give 'them' Monday Nights and some Thursdays on a plate? As GWS and GC get better and better, the Northern Markets will come more and more into play.

The vast majority of NRL games are played on Sunday; Monday night is much easier to fixture.

Monday nights are both difficult to fixture when a majority teams play either on Friday or Saturday, they are also shitty times for people to turn up to the ground.

The_Wookie how does the "traditional" Carlton-St Kilda Monday night fixture fare attendance wise?

 

[The_Wookie]

The vast majority of NRL games are played on Sunday; Monday night is much easier to fixture.

Monday nights are both difficult to fixture when a majority teams play either on Friday or Saturday, they are also shitty times for people to turn up to the ground.

The_Wookie how does the "traditional" Carlton-St Kilda Monday night fixture fare attendance wise?

Other than 2009, all games have been St Kilda home fixtures that have attracted more than the St Kilda season average

2013 - St Kilda v Carlton - 34,054 (st Kilda season average 29,965)
2012 - St Kilda v Carlton - 38,823 (st Kilda season average 32,967)
2011 - St Kilda v Carlton - 41,576 (St Kilda season average 36,085)
2010 - St Kilda v Carlton - 42,866 (st Kilda season average 38,023)
2009 - St Kilda v Collingwood - 46,880 (st kilda season average 33,945)

average: 40,839. Puts it ahead of the leagues match averages over the same period, although steadily decreasing.

 

[Messenger]

Steadily decreasing with St Kilda's fortunes perhaps.