Mega Thread Melbourne Cup Day 2015 * All betting discussion *

[iluvparis]

Didn't catch race 2. Notice Bondeiger placed. Decent run or not?

Ran on well from the back - but no way that form is classy enough for a Melbourne Cup

 

[rideclutch]

Ran on well from the back - but no way that form is classy enough for a Melbourne Cup

That was the worst race I've ever seen. Massive flop from Inglis.

 

[FallingLiefs]

appalling field but it will be a long time before you hear me complaining about giving away money in 4yo staying races.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Around 5 weeks out from the big race.
Who does everyone have as their top 3 fancies at the moment?
For me:

Mongolian Khan
Max Dynamite
Snow Sky

 

[iluvparis]

Think the market looks pretty accurate at this stage:

Hokko Brave
Fame Game
Order of St George

Can't find anything at odds that I won't to spec either - maybe Foundry? Although scratched yesterday.

Loving the Mongolian Khan hype after yesterday - check out the record of AJC Derby winners in the race - awful. Should hopefully generate a price for some of the internationals.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Think the market looks pretty accurate at this stage:

Hokko Brave
Fame Game
Order of St George

Can't find anything at odds that I won't to spec either - maybe Foundry? Although scratched yesterday.

Loving the Mongolian Khan hype after yesterday - check out the record of AJC Derby winners in the race - awful. Should hopefully generate a price for some of the internationals.

How do you see Bondi Beach iluvparis ?

 

[iluvparis]

How do you see Bondi Beach iluvparis ?

I'm sure he has a decent chance like any international. He beat Order of St George in June - but to me, it looks like Order of St George has improved panels past him since then (and has been backed accordingly at each start). He has been destroying older horses while BB has been struggling to beat the second tier 3yos. Obviously their is a weight difference to make up for that but if they both line up I'd expect Order to beat him home.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I'm still liking Magicool, hasn't done a heap wrong at wfa so far this campaign. Not beaten far despite finishing positions and looks an emerging young stayer.

 

[iluvparis]

Are you already on?

On exposed form I reckon he has absolutely none. Hasn't looked anywhere near it at 3 runs back this prep. Maybe if trained by Lloyd or Bart they can turn it around but would be staggered if he features.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Are you already on?

On exposed form I reckon he has absolutely none. Hasn't looked anywhere near it at 3 runs back this prep. Maybe if trained by Lloyd or Bart they can turn it around but would be staggered if he features.

Yes, at $101. it looks a classic staying prep to me, was cluttered up hopelessly all the way down the straight in the Makybe Diva but has hit the line well all runs when clear. Getting out to 2000m+ will be his bag.

 

[iluvparis]

Can't remember the last non Lloyd/Bart horse to have such a slow start to the prep and end up winning the Cup.

 

[sethlad]

Order of st george can get fizzed up from what Ive seen.
That would be a concern for mine

seth

 

[rideclutch]

Yes, at $101. it looks a classic staying prep to me, was cluttered up hopelessly all the way down the straight in the Makybe Diva but has hit the line well all runs when clear. Getting out to 2000m+ will be his bag.

Yeah I think he's going ok, better than what it reads on paper; just don't think he's classy enough to get into the pointy end of the money.

I thought that about Who Shot The Barman though and he lobbed into a place, so what do I know?

 

[iluvparis]

Surely last year's race can now be declared a complete outlier.

And no hopers can definitely place - they just don't win anymore.

 

[Jugada]

I could not back a Fastnet Rock to win over 2 Miles. Nevermind one of the best 2 mile races in the world

 

[FFB1]

Yes, at $101. it looks a classic staying prep to me, was cluttered up hopelessly all the way down the straight in the Makybe Diva but has hit the line well all runs when clear. Getting out to 2000m+ will be his bag.

$280 available on the fair.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

$280 available on the fair.

Keep going, Id need four figures to be interested, thanks. Even then ill probably pass.

 

[King Of Money]

I'm pretty keen on Snow Sky in the Caulfield Cup. Any thoughts on whether he can run out a strong 3200m Melb Cup?

Fame Game the deserved MC fav, not so sure for the CC (distance too short?).

 

[iluvparis]

He was a quality 2400m horse in the UK which is usually good enough to run 3200m down here.

As for Fame Game, many were saying the same about Admire Rakti before last years Caulfield Cup

 

[sethlad]

Wont be risking Snow Sky,especially if Ollie sticks
Genuine class horse & trainer.

seth

 

[iluvparis]

PREFERMENT challenging for second fave on betfair after today's Turnbull win. Seems a solid overreaction to me.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Magicool struggled to run out the 2000m today (dropped out last), I've got a slight question mark about him heading onto 3200m ...

 

[iluvparis]

Magicool struggled to run out the 2000m today (dropped out last), I've got a slight question mark about him heading onto 3200m ...

Did lol

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Winning form today as useless as a box of condoms at a nunnery.

Only thing half decent is maybe Our Ivanhowe's run with the 60kg weight.
Other than that....

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Magicool struggled to run out the 2000m today (dropped out last), I've got a slight question mark about him heading onto 3200m ...

Can't disagree, ridden on the speed and first beaten. Needs to be ridden cold but I'm off him after today