GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
- 66,745
- 89,556
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)
- Thread starter Hank93
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
This draft is really, really difficult to predict. Lots of potential point of difference players and lots of players who I reckon some clubs will have top 25 and others as undraftable. I don't have any inside information for our picks unfortunately. As for what I'd guess we'd do - first off snaffle a slider if there is one. I doubt there will be though, Wright/McCartin/Brayshaw/Petracca/Moore I feel are certainties to fill 5 of the 8 slots before us. I think we'll look for a key defender if one's there - likely (wrongfully, in my view) favouring Durdin due to his versatility, upside and the fact that he's a local. If he's off the board and Lever's on it given his recent growth spurt I think we'll go Lever. Should both, as expected, be off the board it's a tough one and we'll have to decide between a tier two KPD or going with a mid.
Marchbank and Goddard are the next level KPPs and both would be possibilities but from the whispers I've heard I suspect we'll (again, wrongfully in my view) favour Marchbank. For the mids I think it's Laverde, Pickett, Weller and Ahern. Laverde's most likely to be already gone and I just have this suspicion that we'd pass if he was available. While I think he'd add a lot, he's very unpolished at the moment whereas Ahern and Weller have that edge in composure and footy IQ but in my view a lower ceiling. Pickett again fits a real need but has a lot to dislike as well. Gut says we stay away from him with his defensive accountability and discipline a real concern. Whispers are that we'll go Ahern - who I think projects as the safer pick. His speed is overstated but he is quick, he's smart, he's got good skills and an ok inside game for an outsider. Just lacks something dominant and/or an elite trait; I personally wouldn't touch him until the end of the first. Weller fits a need with his incredible skills and composure (+ a bargaining chip should Aish choose to return home) but I think we'd favour Ahern.
My guess for who we'd be picking would be: 1. top 5 slider, 2. Durdin, 3. Lever, 4. Ahern, 5. Laverde/Weller/Goddard 6. Pickett
The second round is even more unpredictable. I'd hope we go outside mid if we go KPD in the first. If Jarrod Garlett is available I'd be pouncing. The other outside leaning mids are all in that 10-20/25 bracket (Weller, Ahern, Laverde, Stretch, Duggan, Pickett etc.) and I suspect they'd all be gone. Garlett perhaps too. If we go OM in the first I'd like us to look at KPDs later on but none really project as second round standard; most should still be there in the third. Oscar McDonald's the most talented defender who should still be left and while he'd be a reach I think he'd be a good one. It's unfortunate in that the KPD/OM next bracket are all 40-60 type players, the 25-35 range is really a few fringe KPFs/inside mids.
Options we could consider in the second include the aforementioned McDonald - and I agree with the sentiment in this thread on him, he's a good bet. Perhaps a little early though. We could get someone like a Corey Ellis here who's probably the only OM I think might slide. I have real reservations on him but he's in general considered someone who'd be a good get in the late 20s. Cavka as a Stanton type player might work. Exceptional accumulator and incredibly quick. All outside and an average kick though. Josh Glenn too would be a good selection. Has the kicking and composure to be a real player on the outside but the grit and aggression to win his own ball on the inside. Ed Vickers-Willis is someone we've been linked to - he's just a very solid small defender type. I don't see why he's rated so highly compared to other small defenders but irrelevant of that he'd compete and relieve Brown and at 190cm could also play a little taller if needed. He's a very accountable type who can contribute (but not to a high level) offensively.
Tom Lamb will be the elephant in the room if, as I have a suspicion he will, he slides to our pick. He's got the talent and game to be molded into whatever we need him to be but he's an absolute bonehead with work rate issues. I think we'd consider but pass. Harrison Wigg should be available here and while he's made a name for himself as a small defender I can't see him making a career there. At his height he's too small to play on anyone bar the smallest two forwards in a side and he's too slow to be effectively accountable on the crumbers. He'd be restricted to defending the Porplyzia types and there just aren't many left. If he's to make a career it'd be through the middle or off a forward flank and his kicking and composure could conceivably see him play a role for us on the outside. I think he'll probably end up with a similar career to Nick Suban and would pass as a result but as a local kid I could definitely see us having a look at him on the outside.
In the third round and beyond I think we'd just need to ensure we nab a KPD/OM if we haven't already. Keenan Ramsay/Sean McLaren as the key backs would suffice and should be there just before 50 and as OMs Nakia Cockatoo, Declan Hamilton, Tom Wilkinson, Jordan Cunico, Oleg Markov and perhaps Lukas Webb could be available (40-60 is a range with a lot of OM talent IMO). I'd personally be considering Jaden McGrath who up until the start of the year looked a real talent as an outside mid. Fast & skilled and part of the AIS program injuries have wrecked his year but I reckon the upside outweighs the others.
If we go into the fourth round and rookie then ruck depth is integral. I'd be looking at Sam Baulderstone but I also like Marc Pittonet a lot. Tom Read looks a player but he'd take considerable time to develop and wouldn't be someone who'd provide immediate relief in case of injury such is how raw he is so he mightn't suit our needs given we need someone who could conceivably be not 10 levels below AFL standard if an injury crisis occurred.
Apparently he's grown to 194cm now.
billy fragos
Premiership Player
- Jun 2, 2014
- 3,922
- 2,823
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
I'm just saying we can get a key defender everywhere trade,free agency,2nd3rd4th round in draft but thee aren't too many options for a outside runner
In this crop key defenders and outside mids are very similar in distribution. There are 2-3 of both in the top 15 then a reasonable gap and a good 4-5 in the 40-60 range. If we go KPD in round 1 there'll be some fine outside mids in round 3. Ditto if we go OM. It'll come down to who's the best available OM or KPD at pick 9.
Unless we're willing to throw buckets (and I mean buckets, enough so that it makes re-signing tex/sloane/danger very difficult) at Frawley or somehow hope to lure a GWS player here which is bound to fail we'll have to find our KPDs through the draft or state leagues too. You're definitely overrating Ahern. He's fast but not super fast. Good kick but not elite. Gets the ball but not huge amounts of it. To a degree he's a bit vanilla and his TAC cup form has been shaky at best. Think Luke Dahlhaus but less courageous. I think judging from your posts you're after us getting a linebreaking outside mid. Like there are different types of outside mids. Jackson MacRae is an outside mid as is Harley Bennell. Jackson MacRae isn't really what we're after though, it's someone with real speed but more than that it's someone who'll break the lines. Ahern has some good speed to him but he doesn't break the lines like someone with his speed can. He's not MacRae but he's certainly not a Bennell/Jetta/Smith type linebreaking outsider.
I'm a massive fan of building the spine of clubs through the first round when possibly and then building around that spine in the later rounds. The spine makes a club and the best bets for both not being a bust and being an elite player come in R1 for KPDs and KPFs. There's largely a very good success rate with outside mids and small defenders later in the draft, the extent to which can't be said for KPPs (especially KPFs).
Thanks Skippos for your input certainly a big help to me to understand the players we might look at, this is 1 year we will have to focus on needs as you have addressed.
Needs might change slightly if can pull off any trades.
Needs might change slightly if can pull off any trades.
Team DJ
Norm Smith Medallist
- Sep 17, 2011
- 2,061
- 2,119
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Team DJ
Norm Smith Medallist
The best young player in SA. Without a doubt
MyLittleSloaney
All Australian
- May 24, 2014
- 992
- 1,314
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
I doubt Lever will make it down to our pick but jeez he looks good.
- Sep 17, 2011
- 2,061
- 2,119
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Lever is a winner thats for sure.
Yep - seen him for myself now and you're spot on
The best young talent, perhaps. Best young player is Neal-Bullen or Stretch as right now they're clearly the best performed players in the SANFL and also did well in the champs.
But drafting isn't all about the best players, it's about projecting growth which is why Durdin is rated so highly despite not being a flash player already.
- Apr 15, 2014
- 898
- 1,048
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Fair enough - such a shame though as he looks brilliant
I'm not as warm on Markov as Chris. He's worth a punt late with some excellent athleticism and skills but right now he's only getting 10-15 touches in the 18s, normally kids who are reasonable prospects and smalls are up in reserves at the very least or absolutely dominating the 18s. Markov hasn't really done any of that. He's definitely a speculative type with very few runs on the board and while I see the merit I wouldn't be pouncing before round four at the earliest. However given our needs if we grabbed him in round 3 it'd be okay, he's just not going to be even close to immediate, if ever even.
Bower has been largely disappointing this year after really impressing as a bottom ager. He's picked it up a bit recently in the reserves though, having a quality day the other week. I still think he's worth a punt in the ND, what he does is just too good not to be worth it. I still like him.
Footypie32
especias secreto
Lever seems to be the best pure defensive draft prospect since Talia and before that Rance, and look how they've turned out. As long as his injury checks out (and all reports seem to indicate he'll be fine), Lever's probably a very safe bet to be at least an above-average key defender. To have him and Talia in the same defence would be very solid. Who knows if he'll last until our pick though. He'll interview well by the sounds of it so teams will be keen on him, but as we've seen with Talia and Rance, it's difficult for a pure lockdown defender to get drafted in the top 10.
Durdin is obviously another option and he has the extra advantages of being local and a more versatile player. We've seen this year how effective someone like Jake Carlisle can be, but who knows whether Durdin can reach that level. He's much more of risk than Lever, but his potential might be higher. I trust that the club will make the right decision if he falls to our pick.
As I've said in another thread, I like Ahern the most out of the outside mid prospects. He just seems to have that "x-factor" about him. His footy smarts look good, he kicks some special goals, he breaks lines, and he seems to play better in big games. The Crows are currently heavily lacking in all of those factors, so I feel like Ahern's the best fit for our needs. For anyone who hasn't seen any of his highlights, check them out, they're well worth a look.
Pickett and Laverde would both be risky picks. I'm still undecided on Weller.
Durdin is obviously another option and he has the extra advantages of being local and a more versatile player. We've seen this year how effective someone like Jake Carlisle can be, but who knows whether Durdin can reach that level. He's much more of risk than Lever, but his potential might be higher. I trust that the club will make the right decision if he falls to our pick.
As I've said in another thread, I like Ahern the most out of the outside mid prospects. He just seems to have that "x-factor" about him. His footy smarts look good, he kicks some special goals, he breaks lines, and he seems to play better in big games. The Crows are currently heavily lacking in all of those factors, so I feel like Ahern's the best fit for our needs. For anyone who hasn't seen any of his highlights, check them out, they're well worth a look.
Pickett and Laverde would both be risky picks. I'm still undecided on Weller.
Footypie32
especias secreto
If we do pick up a defender it will be to address an immediate need. Who is the most AFL ready?
Love your work, Skippos. Insightful stuff.
In your opinion, which KPD is the best kick in this draft?
Durdin has the best kick in my eyes. Technically solid, penetrating, makes good decisions. Lever however is a reasonable enough kick and finds far more of it in open play as well as wins more of his own ball (via intercept possessions and the like).
Lever could conceivably play season one but I doubt it'd be to a higher standard than what we've already got. If we were looking for a young KPD it'd be 2016/7 at the earliest where they'd be pushing to earn a spot on merit. Very rare that KPDs are ready season one.
- Apr 15, 2014
- 898
- 1,048
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
How come I have heard much of Billy Stretch, he seems like a really decent player.
- Status
