Nick Suban - When?

[clogged]

You buy this idea that a coach with the success rate of Lyon should be written off because his teams fell at the final hurdle. I don't. It strikes me as a rationalisation, or post hoc fallacy.

Who said he should be written off? I want Lyon to coach Fremantle until he decides to retire. You aren't going to find a coach that extracts a better win-loss rate than him.

For coaches of more than 200 games experience he has the best win-loss rate of them all.

The problem is his win-loss rate in finals for the same group of coaches is in the bottom third.

It can't simply be written off as luck, when so often his sides lose in finals because they can't turn full field dominance into scores.

 

[Grandstan]

Who said he should be written off? I want Lyon to coach Fremantle until he decides to retire. You aren't going to find a coach that extracts a better win-loss rate than him.

We agree there.

For coaches of more than 200 games experience he has the best win-loss rate of them all.

The problem is his win-loss rate in finals for the same group of coaches is in the bottom third.

It can't simply be written off as luck, when so often his sides lose in finals because they can't turn full field dominance into scores.

Your statistics are misleading. More interestingly, of finals in which he has coached Fremantle, how many has he lost that he should have won? From my calculation, 2 unexpected wins, 1 unexpected loss. The other results went as expected.

 

[clogged]

We agree there.


Your statistics are misleading. More interestingly, of finals in which he has coached Fremantle, how many has he lost that he should have won? From my calculation, 2 unexpected wins, 1 unexpected loss. The other results went as expected.

Why do we rate him on expected wins and losses? Which games so far this season have Freo been expected to lose and won, and vice versa? I think Freo have gone in favourites every game, lost one. I wouldn't say it's been a bad season.

Lyon wants a premiership, he has stated his own benchmarks for a premiership side in terms of offence, and has praised the side he thinks is the competition leader (Hawthorn) based on their offensive abilities. I think, going on his own words, we can infer that he is looking for an offensive edge over the competition. The issue is how much of the side's defensive capabilities is he willing to sacrifice?

 

[Grandstan]

Why do we rate him on expected wins and losses? Which games so far this season have Freo been expected to lose and won, and vice versa? I think Freo have gone in favourites every game, lost one. I wouldn't say it's been a bad season.

You can have your stats for coaches in finals with more than 200 games under their belt, but to me a team's H&A season is judged by total wins and losses over the course, whereas the much smaller sample of finals are a loaded dice, due to ladder position and home ground advantage. And by that measure, Lyon has done well for us, and in my view any statistic that tells you otherwise is meaningless.

Lyon wants a premiership, he has stated his own benchmarks for a premiership side in terms of offence, and has praised the side he thinks is the competition leader (Hawthorn) based on their offensive abilities. I think, going on his own words, we can infer that he is looking for an offensive edge over the competition. The issue is how much of the side's defensive capabilities is he willing to sacrifice?

Sure - this is self-evident. I hope our position on the ladder will give Lyon the opportunity to find out how much defence he can sacrifice, and by equal measure, how much offence he can sacrifice. The goal is not some fixed quantity of points but maximum economy i.e. the ability to punish on the scoreboard without conceding. Who seriously listens when commentators preview matches saying a team must score X number of points to win?

 

[youmewe]

Who said he should be written off? I want Lyon to coach Fremantle until he decides to retire. You aren't going to find a coach that extracts a better win-loss rate than him.

For coaches of more than 200 games experience he has the best win-loss rate of them all.

The problem is his win-loss rate in finals for the same group of coaches is in the bottom third.

It can't simply be written off as luck, when so often his sides lose in finals because they can't turn full field dominance into scores.

Your stats are right on the money.

Lyon is keeping good company though, his finals winning percentage of 47.22% (8-1-9) is still marginally better than Jock McHale's 46.55% (26-2-30).

 

[clogged]

You can have your stats for coaches in finals with more than 200 games under their belt, but to me a team's H&A season is judged by total wins and losses over the course, whereas the much smaller sample of finals are a loaded dice, due to ladder position and home ground advantage. And by that measure, Lyon has done well for us, and in my view any statistic that tells you otherwise is meaningless.

Lyon can be judged by the totality of his win-loss rate, for both clubs he has coached. He was the best coach St Kilda has ever had (in terms of win-loss) and the same at Freo. His sample size for finals is large enough to make an assessment. He has coached to more grand finals than most other coaches, and even that small sample set gives quite clear an indication as to why he has not won one (average score of 63)

Sure - this is self-evident. I hope our position on the ladder will give Lyon the opportunity to find out how much defence he can sacrifice, and by equal measure, how much offence he can sacrifice. The goal is not some fixed quantity of points but maximum economy i.e. the ability to punish on the scoreboard without conceding. Who seriously listens when commentators preview matches saying a team must score X number of points to win?

Where were commentators mentioned? It is Lyon himself who has set benchmarks for what makes premiership teams, and it is these benchmarks he is struggling to meet.

 

[Tay Tay Adams]

I'll agree Subes game on the weekend was a bit on the quiet side, but 4 tackles and 11 possessions definatly wasn't his worst.

I think Subes fits well in the freo side because of his X factor. He's a fire-cracker on the field and loves to get in the face of opposition. That's why Ross loves him. He's bold, daring and aggressive.

Hopefully he can pickup his performance next week, but he's definately far away from being freo's worst.

 

[Latro]

I'll agree Subes game on the weekend was a bit on the quiet side, but 4 tackles and 11 possessions definatly wasn't his worst.

I think Subes fits well in the freo side because of his X factor. He's a fire-cracker on the field and loves to get in the face of opposition. That's why Ross loves him. He's bold, daring and aggressive.

Hopefully he can pickup his performance next week, but he's definately far away from being freo's worst.

The bolded text is the problem.

 

[Righteo]

Too obvious. Danyle Pearce next?

 

[Lach72]

I'll agree Subes game on the weekend was a bit on the quiet side, but 4 tackles and 11 possessions definatly wasn't his worst.

I think Subes fits well in the freo side because of his X factor. He's a fire-cracker on the field and loves to get in the face of opposition. That's why Ross loves him. He's bold, daring and aggressive.

Hopefully he can pickup his performance next week, but he's definately far away from being freo's worst.

Now I'm certain you're a troll

 

[Taylor]

Collongwood fan?

 

[scon]

Retro Clay Davis clip.

 

[electricfeel]

I vote keeping Suban on the team as the sacrificial lamb. The one that needs to line up one of the opposition players and does decent damage, Sam Mitchell style and put them off their game.

That being said, I still don't think he's part of our future but lately he hasnt been as bad as others. He does have some good parts to his game, we just never see them consistently. If I had to choose, I'd rather him than De Boer and Mzungu. But really, he should've been dropped yonks ago and made to work in the WAFL.

 

[Spoken4]

I vote keeping Suban on the team as the sacrificial lamb. The one that needs to line up one of the opposition players and does decent damage, Sam Mitchell style and put them off their game.

Like this you mean?

 

[Tay Tay Adams]

I think alot of people are bias towards Subes. Let 2015 season to date stats speak for themselves:

Subes averages:

• 14 disposals / game
• 4 tackles / game

He out performs (in disposals / tackles the following):

• Matt Tabernar
• Hayden Crozier
• MDB
• Zack Clarke
• Basically equal to Gu

So per the above, Subes will ALWAYS be in Ross's top 22 as long as he keeps out performing these guys. + Subes does bring the "fire" which can't be said for any of the above players. You ever see Crozier or MDB get firey with another player? Any jumper punches / wrestling? Nah - its always subes leading the charge. Wouldn't be surprised if Subes has natually high levels of T in his system. He will also out perform Gu for the rest of the season as Gu isn't really concentrating much anymore on footy.

Subes can get "under the skin" of the oppositions best players, he's a bit like Ballanytne. So he's much more influential than Tabs/HC/MDB/ZC who tend to have 0 influence on the game.

 

[Nodgey]

What happened to clogged anyway??

 

[Spoken4]

What happened to clogged anyway??

Abducted by aliens. Probably getting probed somewhere in deep space.

 

[Square Peg]

Abducted by aliens. Probably getting probed somewhere in deep space.

It's lonely out in space, on such a timeless flight, I'm a sproketman

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Abducted by aliens. Probably getting probed somewhere in deep space.

Pics or GTFO

 

[Keys]

I think alot of people are bias towards Subes. Let 2015 season to date stats speak for themselves:

Subes averages:

• 14 disposals / game
• 4 tackles / game

He out performs (in disposals / tackles the following):

• Matt Tabernar
• Hayden Crozier
• MDB
• Zack Clarke
• Basically equal to Gu

So per the above, Subes will ALWAYS be in Ross's top 22 as long as he keeps out performing these guys. + Subes does bring the "fire" which can't be said for any of the above players. You ever see Crozier or MDB get firey with another player? Any jumper punches / wrestling? Nah - its always subes leading the charge. Wouldn't be surprised if Subes has natually high levels of T in his system. He will also out perform Gu for the rest of the season as Gu isn't really concentrating much anymore on footy.

Subes can get "under the skin" of the oppositions best players, he's a bit like Ballanytne. So he's much more influential than Tabs/HC/MDB/ZC who tend to have 0 influence on the game.

Outstanding post

 

[Righteo]

I think alot of people are bias towards Subes. Let 2015 season to date stats speak for themselves:

Subes averages:

• 14 disposals / game
• 4 tackles / game

He out performs (in disposals / tackles the following):

• Matt Tabernar
• Hayden Crozier
• MDB
• Zack Clarke
• Basically equal to Gu

So per the above, Subes will ALWAYS be in Ross's top 22 as long as he keeps out performing these guys. + Subes does bring the "fire" which can't be said for any of the above players. You ever see Crozier or MDB get firey with another player? Any jumper punches / wrestling? Nah - its always subes leading the charge. Wouldn't be surprised if Subes has natually high levels of T in his system. He will also out perform Gu for the rest of the season as Gu isn't really concentrating much anymore on footy.

Subes can get "under the skin" of the oppositions best players, he's a bit like Ballanytne. So he's much more influential than Tabs/HC/MDB/ZC who tend to have 0 influence on the game.

Quality. I've changed my mind, you're great please stick around.

 

[E Shed]

Pics or GTFO

you actually WANT pics of Clogged being probed by aliens

 

[Borderline]

I think alot of people are bias towards Subes. Let 2015 season to date stats speak for themselves:

Subes averages:

• 14 disposals / game
• 4 tackles / game

He out performs (in disposals / tackles the following):

• Matt Tabernar
• Hayden Crozier
• MDB
• Zack Clarke
• Basically equal to Gu

So per the above, Subes will ALWAYS be in Ross's top 22 as long as he keeps out performing these guys. + Subes does bring the "fire" which can't be said for any of the above players. You ever see Crozier or MDB get firey with another player? Any jumper punches / wrestling? Nah - its always subes leading the charge. Wouldn't be surprised if Subes has natually high levels of T in his system. He will also out perform Gu for the rest of the season as Gu isn't really concentrating much anymore on footy.

Subes can get "under the skin" of the oppositions best players, he's a bit like Ballanytne. So he's much more influential than Tabs/HC/MDB/ZC who tend to have 0 influence on the game.

So he has more touches than two young forwards and two spuds and that's your argument for keeping him in the side? You're quite brilliant Tay Tay.

 

[Docker82]

Is he better than what have to replace him? More than likely

Will he win us a premiership? No chance

The transition starts next year...

 

[Tay Tay Adams]

Is he better than what have to replace him? More than likely

Will he win us a premiership? No chance

The transition starts next year...

Subes will be hitting 26 next year, sweet spot between being experienced and being physically in his prime. So I expect him to be a lock for next years team.