Big Red Machine
Der Sonnenkönig
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Sponsor me for what? Fun run? Brisbane to Gold Coast cycling? My quest for World Domination?
Our route to the finals in 2014
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Carlton could do the Suns a favour tonight with a win against North. Would allow the Suns to be equal in wins with the Kangas next week if they can beat the Lions.
A loss to the Lions will probably be season over for the Suns.
A loss to the Lions will probably be season over for the Suns.
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Norm Smith Medallist
Can't count on Carlton for anything though, but we can only hope.
Can count on Norf though
Big Red Machine
Der Sonnenkönig
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- #231
North's line of thinking: Beating Carlton - How hard can it be?
Had that same mindset against the Suns and Brisbane. Could have been 13-4 and sitting pretty in the top 2, which is where they should be after wins against Sydney, Freo, Hawthorn and Port. Instead it's another wasted year as they'll be just making up the numbers.
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Norm Smith Medallist
The Suns took the same line of thinking and used it against the Bulldogs...
Just looking at all the possibilities in the draw now and it looks like it's going to be a very tight finish.
6th North (10-7)
R19 v Cats (4) @ Etihad
R20 v Giants (15) @ Spotless
R21 v Bulldogs (14) @ Etihad
R22 v Crows (10) @ Bellerive
R23 v Demons (16) @ MCG
7th Essendon (9-7)
R18 v Bulldogs (14) @ Etihad
R19 v Swans (1) @ SCG
R20 v Tigers (12) @ MCG
R21 v Eagles (11) @ Etihad
R22 v Suns (9) @ Etihad
R23 v Blues (13) @ Etihad
8th Collingwood (9-7)
R18 v Crows (10) @ MCG
R19 v Power (5) @ MCG
R20 v Eagles (11) @ Subiaco
R21 v Lions (17) @ MCG
R22 v Giants (15) @ Spotless
R23 v Hawks (3) @ MCG
9th Gold Coast (9-7)
R18 v Lions (17) @ Gabba
R19 v Saints (18) @ Metricon
R20 v Blues (13) @ Etihad
R21 v Power (5) @ Metricon
R22 v Bombers (6) @ Etihad
R23 v Eagles (11) @ Metricon
10th Adelaide (8-8)
R18 v Magpies (8) @ MCG
R19 v Eagles (11) @ Adelaide Oval
R20 v Lions (17) @ Gabba
R21 v Tigers (12) @ Adelaide Oval
R22 v Kangaroos (6) @ Bellerive
R23 v Saints (18) @ Adelaide Oval
Unfortunately for West Coast, I think they are just too far behind now (7-9). At a minimum, North Melbourne are going to win three more games so that will take their record to 13-9 with a pretty good percentage in all likelihood. Essendon have a good enough draw to drop just one more game before the end of the season. They only have to leave Melbourne once to play Sydney which is almost definitely going to be a loss. So the Bombers will probably finish with a record of 14-8 and a good percentage. Not looking good for the Suns so far.
Collingwood probably have the trickiest draw of all these teams. They need to leave Melbourne twice and two of their games in Melbourne are expected to be losses. I'm going to put them down for three wins which will take their record to 12-10 with a pretty average percentage. The Gold Coast's draw is also tricky. If they lose either of their next two games then it's season over. If they lose to Carlton in Round 20 then it gets really tough. Unfortunately, I have a feeling they will drop one of their next three games which will almost definitely mean they will be playing for 8th spot in the last round at home at against West Coast. I'm predicting the club with the higher percentage out of Gold Coast and Collingwood will take the 8th spot at the conclusion of the final round.
Adelaide's season basically finishes with a loss to Collingwood in this round. If they manage to get a win against Collingwood then West Coast could make life very difficult if they defeat them the following week. Best case scenario they win four of their last six to give them a record of 12-10 just like the Gold Coast and Collingwood. Could end up being a three way tie for eighth but I think that's unlikely for Adelaide at this point. As I said, a loss to Collingwood this round should end their season.
6th North (10-7)
R19 v Cats (4) @ Etihad
R20 v Giants (15) @ Spotless
R21 v Bulldogs (14) @ Etihad
R22 v Crows (10) @ Bellerive
R23 v Demons (16) @ MCG
7th Essendon (9-7)
R18 v Bulldogs (14) @ Etihad
R19 v Swans (1) @ SCG
R20 v Tigers (12) @ MCG
R21 v Eagles (11) @ Etihad
R22 v Suns (9) @ Etihad
R23 v Blues (13) @ Etihad
8th Collingwood (9-7)
R18 v Crows (10) @ MCG
R19 v Power (5) @ MCG
R20 v Eagles (11) @ Subiaco
R21 v Lions (17) @ MCG
R22 v Giants (15) @ Spotless
R23 v Hawks (3) @ MCG
9th Gold Coast (9-7)
R18 v Lions (17) @ Gabba
R19 v Saints (18) @ Metricon
R20 v Blues (13) @ Etihad
R21 v Power (5) @ Metricon
R22 v Bombers (6) @ Etihad
R23 v Eagles (11) @ Metricon
10th Adelaide (8-8)
R18 v Magpies (8) @ MCG
R19 v Eagles (11) @ Adelaide Oval
R20 v Lions (17) @ Gabba
R21 v Tigers (12) @ Adelaide Oval
R22 v Kangaroos (6) @ Bellerive
R23 v Saints (18) @ Adelaide Oval
Unfortunately for West Coast, I think they are just too far behind now (7-9). At a minimum, North Melbourne are going to win three more games so that will take their record to 13-9 with a pretty good percentage in all likelihood. Essendon have a good enough draw to drop just one more game before the end of the season. They only have to leave Melbourne once to play Sydney which is almost definitely going to be a loss. So the Bombers will probably finish with a record of 14-8 and a good percentage. Not looking good for the Suns so far.
Collingwood probably have the trickiest draw of all these teams. They need to leave Melbourne twice and two of their games in Melbourne are expected to be losses. I'm going to put them down for three wins which will take their record to 12-10 with a pretty average percentage. The Gold Coast's draw is also tricky. If they lose either of their next two games then it's season over. If they lose to Carlton in Round 20 then it gets really tough. Unfortunately, I have a feeling they will drop one of their next three games which will almost definitely mean they will be playing for 8th spot in the last round at home at against West Coast. I'm predicting the club with the higher percentage out of Gold Coast and Collingwood will take the 8th spot at the conclusion of the final round.
Adelaide's season basically finishes with a loss to Collingwood in this round. If they manage to get a win against Collingwood then West Coast could make life very difficult if they defeat them the following week. Best case scenario they win four of their last six to give them a record of 12-10 just like the Gold Coast and Collingwood. Could end up being a three way tie for eighth but I think that's unlikely for Adelaide at this point. As I said, a loss to Collingwood this round should end their season.
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Norm Smith Medallist
The fact that the Bombers don't leave Melbourne for four weeks straight, in the final four rounds, really pisses me off.
Carlton beating North Melbourne helped us out a bit for our finals hopes, but it also means that Carlton will be a harder team to beat when it's out turn in a few weeks...
Carlton beating North Melbourne helped us out a bit for our finals hopes, but it also means that Carlton will be a harder team to beat when it's out turn in a few weeks...
Round 18 and 19 are absolutely crucial for those five teams. North have already lost to Carlton and I would think Geelong would do a job on them next round as well. That would leave them with a record of 10-8 with potentially two more danger games to go. Essendon have the Bulldogs and Swans. They aren't going to beat the Swans at the SCG so best case scenario for Essendon after round 19 is a record of 10-8 but the Bulldogs could cause an upset as well and put them at 9-9. Collingwood have the two South Australian sides in their next two rounds and I think the Pies will definitely lose at least one of those games. They could even lose both but we'll say they win one and have a record of 10-8. Gold Coast really should account for both the Lions and Saints which would give them a record of 11-7 and, if my predictions are right, 6th place on the ladder going into round 20. Adelaide have two really tough games in Collingwood and West Coast but perhaps the home ground advantage against the Eagles will give them a win. I put them at 9-9 after round 19. So, the ladder would look like this after round 19 if my predictions are right:
6 Gold Coast 11-7
7 North 10-8
8 Essendon 10-8
9 Collingwood 10-8
10 Adelaide 9-9
Big Red Machine
Der Sonnenkönig
supernova_
Premiership Player
The loss of Carlisle and Trengove is massive. Imagine taking May and Thompson out of our defence?
It is what it is. I have faith we'll kick into gear by the time that game comes around. However, I wouldn't be totally opposed to the Suns winning just because it would probably mean both clubs would play finals this year.
- Dec 3, 2013
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Is it at the point where we accept essendon are making it and hope the crows knock off collingwood?
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Norm Smith Medallist
I still can't tell weather essendon are good or weather they're just playing under-performing teams...
- Feb 22, 2011
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As an Essendon supporter who wants to see your mob play finals this year, I'd probably say yes at this point.
Huge blow for Essendon's finals chances with Daniher to have surgery and out for a minimum of 3 weeks. Their next three games are against Sydney (away), Richmond and West Coast (away). They are no chance against Sydney at the SCG and I could see West Coast doing a job on them out west. Richmond is really the one they should win but that might even be a tough ask. Let's just say they do beat Richmond and lose the other two, that would put them at 11-9 for the season with Gold Coast and Carlton being the following games. By that point, Gold Coast should either be 12-8 or 11-9 so if the Suns can get up in round 22 against Essendon then it'll go a looooong way to securing a finals spot. Then the Suns basically have to beat West Coast at Metricon the following week to hold off Essendon/Collingwood because of their poor percentage.
This is only possible if they win their next two games against St Kilda and Brisbane. Lose one and it's pretty much season over. Exciting and nervous times ahead!
This is only possible if they win their next two games against St Kilda and Brisbane. Lose one and it's pretty much season over. Exciting and nervous times ahead!
Sunny_
Brownlow Medallist
If he stays on task, Bock's first game in the 1s will be the Essendon game. Handy inclusion.
Little_Master
Debutant
- Apr 11, 2014
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Essendon almost coughed the game up against a very tired Bulldogs. I expect them to drop a couple. Although after our loss to the Doggies in Cairns I'm not sure we really deserve a finals spot this year to be honest.
The Prosecutor
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 13, 2011
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Couple of things.
Daniher will only miss two games, given we have a week off this week.
West Coast is in Melbourne, not Perth.
- Dec 3, 2013
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- AFL Club
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Party pooper
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Norm Smith Medallist
How many of you are heading up to the Brisbane game on Saturday?
You're right. I saw the Richmond game and just presumed they would play away the following week. Well missing two games is a best case scenario for Daniher. It wouldn't be overly surprising if he did miss three. For Essendon, it's important they don't get belted by the Swans. They don't want to get into a fight for the better percentage.
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