Polls Thread Mk III

[iluvparis]

Betting market probabilities

LIB: 79%
ALP: 21%

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Betting market probabilities

LIB: 79%
ALP: 21%

About as useful as in an AFL game preview.

 

[swansfan51]

About as useful as in an AFL game preview.

I believe the betting markets have a better prediction track record than most polls.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I believe the betting markets have a better prediction track record than most polls.

A lot of those predicting a Coalition victory would be Labor voters thinking the task is too hard. Doesn't change their vote though. We saw this with the Qld election. It was considered an almost impossible task to come back from the previous drubbing.

In reality the result will end up within a couple of points of the median polls prediction.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

There's a distinct lack of seriousness to election betting markets, and they're indirectly based off the survey polls anyway plus oh-so-measurable 'vibe'. Much simpler to pay attention to the polls and skip all that other crap.

(This idea punters are somehow geniuses on elections while losing money on everything else is laughable, by the way)

 

[iluvparis]

There's a distinct lack of seriousness to election betting markets, and they're indirectly based off the survey polls anyway plus oh-so-measurable 'vibe'. Much simpler to pay attention to the polls and skip all that other crap.

100% incorrect - sorry mate but you've got no idea. The difference between markets and polls are that people are putting their money down which makes a world of difference.

 

[Maggie5]

100% incorrect - sorry mate but you've got no idea. The difference between markets and polls are that people are putting their money down which makes a world of difference.

Wouldn't those markets be affected say, if $5000 was place on LNP and only $100 on Labor?

 

[iluvparis]

Wouldn't those markets be affected say, if $5000 was place on LNP and only $100 on Labor?

Not on betfair

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

So this government won't run full term as Malcolm promised...? Can we add that to his broken promise of leading a mature economic debate which doesn't rule things out and run scare campaigns?

Having a PM in a panic is not a good look.

I think the tradition of polls squaring up when an election is called is going to happen once again.

 

[GreyCrow]

100% incorrect - sorry mate but you've got no idea. The difference between markets and polls are that people are putting their money down which makes a world of difference.

I don't disagree but I think its more when they put their money down. 15 weeks out says to me the speculators are betting. Show me the betting markets a week out

 

[Borry]

Anyone taking a flutter on this election?

 

[Dry Rot]

Trend not good for the Man from Goldman Sachs.

Newspoll: dozen seats in danger for Malcolm Turnbull

Queensland is emerging as a problem state for Malcolm Turnbull’s government, which is also losing ground in Victoria, Western Australia and NSW as it counts down to a July 2 election. The Coalition has also suffered a fall in support among men and country voters which is more than double the overall decline in its primary vote, according to an analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted exclusively for The Australian in the first three months of this year.

In the battleground state of Queensland, Coalition support has dropped six percentage points in two-party terms since the 2013 election. However, it remains ahead with 51 per cent of the vote in two-party terms in the state, where it holds six seats by a margin of 6 per cent or less and a further four seats by between 6 per cent and 7 per cent....

The state-by-state and demographic breakdown of Newspoll surveys of 7508 people in the March quarter comes at the start of what could be a three-month run to an election and suggests the Coalition is on track to retain power with the loss of about 10-12 seats, leaving a reduced majority for Mr Turnbull to govern.

While support for the Coalition is higher in every state and on every measure than it was in the final quarterly poll under Tony Abbott’s leadership, the government is facing an overall fall in its primary vote of 1.6 percentage points and a two-party-preferred swing against it of 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...l/news-story/d537527be314e8fe161904c9ef83c78f

 

[GreyCrow]

And Tony Abbott is getting a Campaign Bus to save Malcolm. First stop No Subs SA where he will help his good mate Christopher ''IdeasBOOM'' Pyne out

 

[pjcrows]

And Tony Abbott is getting a Campaign Bus to save Malcolm. First stop No Subs SA where he will help his good mate Christopher ''IdeasBOOM'' Pyne out

Libs currently lead 53-47 in SA. Wait until Abbott shows up - will reverse thst result.

 

[Gough]

Local Libs are conceding Hindmarsh already, and nobody has any money, SA is going to be a nightmare for them.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Anyone taking a flutter on this election?

I'll have $100 on boring as bat-s**t.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Trend not good for the Man from Goldman Sachs.



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...l/news-story/d537527be314e8fe161904c9ef83c78f

Behind pay wall, is that an editorial? They just make s**t up for editorials at The Australian.

 

[GreyCrow]

Local Libs are conceding Hindmarsh already, and nobody has any money, SA is going to be a nightmare for them.

If Xenephon puts someone in Boothby its said he can take that from the Libs and a good Xenephon candidate would run Pyne close

 

[Gough]

If Xenephon puts someone in Boothby its said he can take that from the Libs and a good Xenephon candidate would run Pyne close

ALP should have won Boothby in 2007, if they had put a decent candidate instead of Nicole Cornes up, they would have beaten Southcott easily, Kevin Foley should never be forgiven for that one. I'm no Xenophon fan, but I am broadly supportive of anything that would keep Nicole Flint out of parliament.

 

[GreyCrow]

ALP should have won Boothby in 2007, if they had put a decent candidate instead of Nicole Cornes up, they would have beaten Southcott easily, Kevin Foley should never be forgiven for that one. I'm no Xenophon fan, but I am broadly supportive of anything that would keep Nicole Flint out of parliament.

Like a rabbit in the headlights

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Libs currently lead 53-47 in SA. Wait until Abbott shows up - will reverse thst result.

If Newspoll have assumed 'Others' preference the same as last election, 47% will be underestimating the Labor 2PP vote. The large bloc of Xenophon voters will preference Labor more strongly than PUP/Family First voters did in 2013

 

[Dry Rot]

Behind pay wall, is that an editorial? They just make s**t up for editorials at The Australian.

Not editorial. Report of Newspoll.

 

[Pessimistic]

I don't disagree but I think its more when they put their money down. 15 weeks out says to me the speculators are betting. Show me the betting markets a week out

Every chance you can have a win win betting combo by the time the polls open

 

[Hank Scorpion]

~6% swing to McGowan compared with 2013

 

[Goldenblue]

I'd hate to see Mirabella get back in, I would lose faith in the Australian voting public.